Brexit discussion thread III

Leroy42 · 08-06-2018 12:37PM

I see TM has been 'snubbed' by Trump at the upcoming G7 (I use snubbed as it is in the headlines but it is pretty said that he is simply not engaging with anybody).

The problem for TM, and the UK as a whole, is that much of the Brexit narrative is based on setting up new trade deals with the rest of the world, with the lynchpin of that being the 'special relationship' with the US. It bodes badly that Trump is so seemingly unconcerned about the UK, stating that he needs to concentrate on NK. And whilst this may be true (its not he simply cannot face the others) it also points to the US being willing to put UK at the back of the queue (I wonder who might have alluded to that very possibility?)

It would certainly have given the UK a major lift in negotiation with the EU if TM could show that the UK would be enjoying significant trade deals with the US, maybe even having the ability to ward off the upcoming tariffs.

Now, as Macron says no leader lasts forever, and certainly nobody really imagined Trump winning back in June 16, but there is the strong possibility that Trump could win in 2020. So the UK (and everyone else) could be looking at another 6 years. And who knows what state the US will be in then in terms of the next leader

Leroy42 · 08-06-2018 12:38PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Barnier says backstop cannot extend to whole UK

Why would that be? Surely the backstop is effectively staying in the EU in all but name? Doesn't it make sense from an EU POV for the whole UK to stay in rather than just NI?

farmchoice · 08-06-2018 12:40PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why would that be? Surely the backstop is effectively staying in the EU in all but name? Doesn't it make sense from an EU POV for the whole UK to stay in rather than just NI?

its can kicking and it looks like the eu is playing hardball now... good on them.

Anthracite · 08-06-2018 12:42PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Barnier says backstop cannot extend to whole UK

ahahahahahahhaahahah

ahahahahahahhahahahah

hahhahahahahahhahahah

Sorry. Couldn't help myself. So all this drama over a proposal that they surely knew was already going to be rejected by the EU on not one, but two entirely different grounds. I wonder have we reached peak Brexit absurdity yet? The weird thing is, I feel we have not.

Part of me hungers for a crash-out Brexit, just so that the Brexit bigots reap what they have sown.

Meanwhile, in Brexit Bongoland, Irish chapter, Peter Robinson says that a 50%+1 (i.e. a narrow majority) in a border poll would be very bad, would be no basis for reunification, and to be avoided at all costs.

I wonder how he would feel about 48/52? Presumably that would be great?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-44406029

Kermit.de.frog · 08-06-2018 12:55PM

Barnier has effective rejected the Irish backstop proposal.

In effect they are demanding the customs border be in the Irish sea.

Clare in Exile · 08-06-2018 12:57PM

How much longer can this folly go on for? Great that Barnier has come out immediately and shot down the "Backstop with a date...for the whole of the UK" idea immediately. Between Fox's words yesterday and Boris' leaked quips at that meeting "behind closed doors", we surely must be reaching the end-game of Brexit Buffoonery now?

It's looking more and more like the UK will be crashing out of the EU with a particularly hard Brexit - whilst some may laugh at the Kamikaze nature of this, for us over here in Ireland it will most certainly be a case of "When Britain sneezes Ireland catches a cold".

Interesting times indeed...

pixelburp · 08-06-2018 01:06PM

Is there any argument to be made though that all this hardball from the EU - and thoroughly justifiable hardball I should add - ultimately just plays into the Brexiteers' narrative of the EU as an unwieldy, unfriendly (nay, evil) institution? Not that I think Barnier & co. should change tune or even throw folks to the wolves; doing so with Ireland would very much be the thin end of the wedge in the eyes of the other small countries in the union, but beyond the more politically educated in the UK realising Brexit is a no-go, I'm presuming this is just solidifying stances among the Little Englanders, not softening it.

Zubeneschamali · 08-06-2018 01:08PM

pixelburp wrote: »

Iplays into the Brexiteers' narrative of the EU as an unwieldy, unfriendly (nay, evil) institution?

The UK is leaving - no-one on the EU side of the table has to care what they think of the EU anymore.

Water John · 08-06-2018 01:09PM

It hardly qualifies as unwieldy, when the EU come back with an answer in less than 24 hours. BTW the UK have spent months cobbling together this non proposal.

ancapailldorcha · 08-06-2018 01:10PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I agree with almost everything you say, but that does not deal with the fact that since the vote very few (statistically) have changed their mind.

Why would the voters continue to push for Brexit simply as a protest? As you say, the traditional voting patterns were largely restored in 2017 election (UKIP gone etc) and the local elections showed little signs of a protest.

So to follow the protest line, one must feel that voters protested once and left it at that, happy that all the issues were no resolved? Even the grubby coalition deal should have put paid to that.

But most of them voted for parties which committed themselves to Brexit albeit very different versions of it. They haven't changed their minds and both parties reckon they can have their cake and eat it by committing to Brexit while knowing that many Remain voters have accepted the result and wish for an end to the uncertainty the plebiscite created.

Leroy42 wrote: »

The biggest mistake was letting this moniker of "Project Fear" take hold. Whilst it may have been somewhat true in the campaign, it is now used to decry anything that doesn't support the Brexit case (much like Fake News in Trumpland, but the UK deem their version to be far superior). So anybody that argues from remain is claimed to be overrun by Project Fear. They should fight back and say it should be called what it is, "Facts".

But it did. I follow the Conservative party on Facebook where they shamelessly claim credit for anything positive the EU does such as abolishing roaming charges while blaming it for any problems. Cynicism about the EU is now so entrenched that trying to create a positive vision for it will take a lot of time and would be the political equivalent of getting people to love going to the Dentist.

J Mysterio · 08-06-2018 01:10PM

Starting to wonder do we actually want the CTA..

ancapailldorcha · 08-06-2018 01:11PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Starting to wonder do we actually want the CTA..

I sodding well do!! I live in the UK and it lets me vote here, a right shamefully denied to millions of tax paying EU migrants.

J Mysterio · 08-06-2018 01:12PM

pixelburp wrote: »

Is there any argument to be made though that all this hardball from the EU - and thoroughly justifiable hardball I should add - ultimately just plays into the Brexiteers' narrative of the EU as an unwieldy, unfriendly (nay, evil) institution? Not that I think Barnier & co. should change tune or even throw folks to the wolves; doing so with Ireland would very much be the thin end of the wedge in the eyes of the other small countries in the union, but beyond the more politically educated in the UK realising Brexit is a no-go, I'm presuming this is just solidifying stances among the Little Englanders, not softening it.

Who cares at this point? They already hate the EU.

J Mysterio · 08-06-2018 01:14PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I sodding well do!! I live in the UK and it lets me vote here, a right shamefully denied to millions of tax paying EU migrants.

Fait enough

Im just thinking that this is all going to go very badly, and we might have a massive influx of people from the UK.

Could be a boon to the economy though, I guess.

ilovesmybrick · 08-06-2018 01:16PM

pixelburp wrote:

Is there any argument to be made though that all this hardball from the EU - and thoroughly justifiable hardball I should add - ultimately just plays into the Brexiteers' narrative of the EU as an unwieldy, unfriendly (nay, evil) institution? Not that I think Barnier & co. should change tune or even throw folks to the wolves; doing so with Ireland would very much be the thin end of the wedge in the eyes of the other small countries in the union, but beyond the more politically educated in the UK realising Brexit is a no-go, I'm presuming this is just solidifying stances among the Little Englanders, not softening it.

I think there's probably a realisation that the Brexit train has become unstoppable. There's less than a year to go, and if there's this much fighting in the UK over something that they want, could you imagine what would happen if they tried to stop it. At this stage we're looking at the bones of four years of Brexit nonsense and there's still no plan beyond EU bad. Pandering to little Englanders is the tories problem, not the EUs.

Anthracite · 08-06-2018 01:18PM

pixelburp wrote: »

Is there any argument to be made though that all this hardball from the EU - and thoroughly justifiable hardball I should add - ultimately just plays into the Brexiteers' narrative of the EU as an unwieldy, unfriendly (nay, evil) institution? Not that I think Barnier & co. should change tune or even throw folks to the wolves; doing so with Ireland would very much be the thin end of the wedge in the eyes of the other small countries in the union, but beyond the more politically educated in the UK realising Brexit is a no-go, I'm presuming this is just solidifying stances among the Little Englanders, not softening it.

Why should anyone outside the UK care now? North Koreans think the whole world is evil and out to get them...they are deluded fools, but let them think it if they like.

pixelburp · 08-06-2018 01:18PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The UK is leaving - no-one on the EU side of the table has to care what they think of the EU anymore.

Water John wrote: »

It hardly qualifies as unwieldy, when the EU come back with an answer in less than 24 hours. BTW the UK have spent months cobbling together this non proposal.

I wasn't implying the EU were those things, merely that their constant rejection of the UK's proposals - however demonstrably unworkable they are - plays into that pre-existing narrative among the British (for want of a better catch-all demographic) that the EU aren't open to reason, fairness, etc. etc.

J Mysterio wrote: »

Who cares at this point? They already hate the EU.

Presumably the 48%+ folks who don't want Brexit care; it can't be particularly motivating to have these basketcase proposals tabled with a straight face, only to have the EU respond with a weary 'uh, no'.

Not sure I have a point as such, but it seems like there's a chance to rewrite the narrative a little, were some to take the chance. To point out all things to be lost, mundanities etc., yet everything's happening in the political upper atmosphere (a lack of oxygen to the brain feeling an apt comparison for the cabinets ideas)

kunst nugget · 08-06-2018 01:24PM

pixelburp wrote: »

Not sure I have a point as such, but it seems like there's a chance to rewrite the narrative a little, were some to take the chance. To point out all things to be lost, mundanities etc., yet everything's happening in the political upper atmosphere (a lack of oxygen to the brain feeling an apt comparison for the cabinets ideas)

Didn't the EU have a webpage to counter the bogus claims made by the UK press about the EU and its directives? I'd imagine they've resigned themselves to the fact that no matter what way they try to play this, they are going to be portrayed as the bad guy and are going to be solely concentrating on getting the best deal for their member states. As they should be doing.

ancapailldorcha · 08-06-2018 01:27PM

kunst nugget wrote: »

Didn't the EU have a webpage to counter the bogus claims made by the UK press about the EU and its directives? I'd imagine they've resigned themselves to the fact that no matter what way they try to play this, they are going to be portrayed as the bad guy and are going to be solely concentrating on getting the best deal for their member states. As they should be doing.

They do:

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

I recently read Nick Clegg's Politics: Between the Extremes. He reported getting plenty of complaints in his constituency of Sheffield Hallam about London telling them what to do. British Institutions have been constantly hollowed out over the past few decades to the point where people feel that they don't have any control of their country any more while wages have barely risen whereas rents have soared. I think that a lot of people were all too ready to take the chance and bloody the noses of the establishment.

Anthracite · 08-06-2018 01:29PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They do:

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

I recently read Nick Clegg's Politics: Between the Extremes. He reported getting plenty of complaints in his constituency of Sheffield Hallam about London telling them what to do. British Institutions have been constantly hollowed out over the past few decades to the point where people feel that they don't have any control of their country any more while wages have barely risen whereas rents have soared. I think that a lot of people were all too ready to take the chance and bloody the noses of the establishment.

Follow-up question: is there one of these for each national press, or only that of the UK?

ancapailldorcha · 08-06-2018 01:31PM

Anthracite wrote: »

Follow-up question: is there one of these for each national press, or only that of the UK?

Good question. I just googled "EU Myths" and copied the first result. I don't actually know if there is an equivalent for other countries.

Anyway, here's another which seems a little less formal:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/media/euromyths.html

laoch na mona · 08-06-2018 01:32PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They do:

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

I recently read Nick Clegg's Politics: Between the Extremes. He reported getting plenty of complaints in his constituency of Sheffield Hallam about London telling them what to do. British Institutions have been constantly hollowed out over the past few decades to the point where people feel that they don't have any control of their country any more while wages have barely risen whereas rents have soared. I think that a lot of people were all too ready to take the chance and bloody the noses of the establishment.

that's basically it for a lot of people they are already struggling with no sign of any relief so brexit was a kick against the powers that be, any fears about the economy don't resonate because they share none of the benefits from the current system

kunst nugget · 08-06-2018 01:32PM

Anthracite wrote: »

Follow-up question: is there one of these for each national press, or only that of the UK?

I think the page is to cover all Euro Myths but since 99% originate in the UK…

Leroy42 · 08-06-2018 01:32PM

pixelburp wrote: »

I wasn't implying the EU were those things, merely that their constant rejection of the UK's proposals - however demonstrably unworkable they are - plays into that pre-existing narrative among the British (for want of a better catch-all demographic) that the EU aren't open to reason, fairness, etc. etc.

What is the alternative? The EU don't reject them, play along with it for a while before rejecting them?

It really can't be helped by the EU that the UK is selling this nonsense to the people.

kunst nugget · 08-06-2018 01:35PM

Remember Richard Littlejohn's iconic phrase 'You couldn't make it up'? Turns out you could…

zapitastas · 08-06-2018 01:37PM

Water John wrote: »

It hardly qualifies as unwieldy, when the EU come back with an answer in less than 24 hours. BTW the UK have spent months cobbling together this non proposal.

It must be bizarre for competent British civil service staff to have to work on this process. From dealings i would have had with DFID in Britain I found the staff to be extremely well briefed and highly professional. I imagine that is replicated throughout a lot of departments and for them to be working on brexit must be a bit of a nightmare

Seth Brundle · 08-06-2018 01:44PM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I think there's probably a realisation that the Brexit train has become unstoppable.

Pride is the only thing preventing them from stopping the train!

ancapailldorcha · 08-06-2018 01:47PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Pride is the only thing preventing them from stopping the train!

I think that it's deeper than this. The organised remnants of the Remain side are still using an economic doom and gloom narrative to try to stop Brexit. The problem is that this same message failed to energise Remain voters in 2016 and is having, if anything a diminished effect now. Since 2015, there have been local elections, two national elections and a referendum. People are fed up of this and unless the Remainers can come up with an exciting, positive narrative of the EU then Brexit will proceed.

Kermit.de.frog · 08-06-2018 01:50PM

EU has hit the UK government from both sides when you think about it

a. Insisting NI only for backstop means border in Irish sea - DUP could pull the plug

b. Insisting there can be no time limit implied or otherwise - Brexiteers could pull the plug

It's immaculate really.

Kermit.de.frog · 08-06-2018 01:53PM

Response from Downing Street:

The prime minster has been clear that we will never accept a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. We are also committed to maintaining the integrity of our own internal market. That position will not change. The commission’s proposals did not achieve this, which is why we have put forward our own backstop solutions for customs.

All parties must recall their commitment in the joint report to protect the Belfast agreement in all its parts.

Michel Barnier has confirmed today that discussions will now continue on our proposal.

But it was already agreed in December. Barnier says no going back on that.

Brexit discussion thread III

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