Brexit discussion thread III

Capt'n Midnight · 08-06-2018 12:09AM

joeysoap wrote: »

There it is . Question Time tonight. There will be a deal. Aldi (German ) need one.

You couldn’t make this up.

Wow. Aldi Süd operate here and in the UK. But Aldi Nord don't. So the half of Aldi that manages one fourteenth of the UK grocery market will be calling the shots ?

In the 12 weeks to 22 April 2018, Aldi commanded 7.3% of the UK grocery market, and Lidl was on 5.4%.

In Ireland it's close enough to 22% each for Tesco / Supervalue / Dunnes and 11% for Aldi / Lidl / Everyone Else. So expect the Germans to take more market share in the UK.

Peregrinus · 08-06-2018 01:13AM

briany wrote: »

I was of the understanding that the backstop would be implemented if the UK couldn't come up with a solution that satisfied both sides. This implies that an overall deal would still have been reached, however. If the UK walks out of talks and end up with no deal, then what onus is on them to stick to the backstop?

None.

It works like this: the backstop is the arrangement that will prevail if there is no EU/UK Free Trade deal that keeps the Irish border open, and no agreement on magical technology to keep the Irish border open.

But, crucially, it's the EU/UK Withdrawal Agreement which will say "This is the backstop. It will apply if there is no FTA/magical technology agreement".

So, if the UK leaves without even a Withdrawal Agreement, they are not committed to applying the backstop.

The thing is, leaving without a Withdrawal Agreement would be an absolute unqualified unmitigated disaster for the UK, so it is not something they are likely to choose to do, merely in order to avoid the backstop.

But if, for other reasons, the UK leaves with no Withdrawal Agreement - say, a political crisis in the UK leads to the collapse of the government and the Art. 50 time limit runs out before they get themselves together and get a new government - then, yes, there will be no backstop, and there will be a hard border.

There is nothing that can be done to avoid this possiblity. There never was. The UK is an independent sovereign state and we cannot actually force them to enter into an agreement to keep the border open. We can just arrange matters so that it is very much in their interests to enter into such an agreement, which is what we have done.

Peregrinus · 08-06-2018 01:19AM

McGiver wrote: »

I think the Tories just think they will keep kicking the can down the road until the next general election. Also, Labour won't do anything. No one wants to own Brexit and be punished by the electorate when the Brexit sh1te falls down on everyone's head. Which means the country is politically paralysed and heading towards a hard Brexit unless something extraordinary happens.

The Tories very much don't want to be still kicking the can down the road at the next election. They reckon the voters will crucify them if, at that time, six years after the referendum, the UK is still in the Customs Union, still paying EU contributions, still has no trade deals or no capacity to enter into them, still committed to substantial regulatory alignment with the EU, etc, etc. All that will have changed is that the UK no longer has a seat at the table around which the rules are made. The UK will have been through years of turmoil and absolutely nothing of any value* will have been achieved.

*[My bad. I'm forgetting the blue passports.]

prinzeugen · 08-06-2018 02:43AM

If I was May, I would walk.

You have France, that was fighting bloody wars in the late 40's and 50's, in a despite attempt to keep the French Empire going, dictating to Ireland and you all roll over.

But yet the British is the problem? Go read some books about the slave trade.. The Brits are the good guys in this.

On the back of a €20 or 50 note you have Gibraltar. But you have French acquisitions in Canada, the Caribbean and in many oceans.

Did you know money is being sent to the EU Colonies in Canada, The Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean ?

zapitastas · 08-06-2018 02:57AM

prinzeugen wrote: »

If I was May, I would walk.

You have France, that was fighting bloody wars in the late 40's and 50's, in a despite attempt to keep the French Empire going, dictating to Ireland and you all roll over.

But yet the British is the problem? Go read some books about the slave trade.. The Brits are the good guys in this.

On the back of a €20 or 50 note you have Gibraltar. But you have French acquisitions in Canada, the Caribbean and in many oceans.

Are you playing imperial bingo? Not sure what any of that has to do with the process of the UK leaving the EU

Peregrinus · 08-06-2018 02:59AM

prinzeugen wrote: »

If I was May, I would walk.

You have France, that was fighting bloody wars in the late 40's and 50's, in a despite attempt to keep the French Empire going, dictating to Ireland and you all roll over.

Sorry, what?

You think we're resisting a hard border because the French are telling us to?

Seth Brundle · 08-06-2018 06:20AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Johnson seems to think the Border is a small folly:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/boris-johnson-trump-brexit-leaked-recording?utm_term=.yt8DDKzVlW&__twitter_impression=true

The Irish Times story onbthis says

Friends of Mr Johnson said: “This was a private dinner under Chatham House rules so it is sad and very disappointing that it has been covertly recorded and distributed to the media.”

Is BJ not in favour of speaking his mind in public?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/boris-johnson-warns-of-brexit-meltdown-and-derides-border-folly-1.3523705

CelticRambler · 08-06-2018 06:20AM

McGiver wrote: »

I think the Tories just think they will keep kicking the can down the road until the next general election. Also, Labour won't do anything. No one wants to own Brexit and be punished by the electorate when the Brexit sh1te falls down on everyone's head. Which means the country is politically paralysed and heading towards a hard Brexit unless something extraordinary happens.

The situation is probably worse than it appears, because not only are the two main parties stuck in their parallel loops, but there is no one person and no other party coming forth as a potential new force in British politics.

The UK political scene has a dozen Trumps and Clintons, but no Bernie Sanders or Emmanuel Macron or Justin Trudeau or Jacinda Ardern (or Leo Varadkar

) - and the electorate simply doesn't care. As the saying goes, they've got the government they deserve.

Just as I can see the Republicans winning plenty of seats in the US mid-terms later this year, I can quite easily see the Tories being re-elected in England (and hence the UK) despite all they've done to damage Britain's standing in the world.

Christy42 · 08-06-2018 06:47AM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Johnson seems to think the Border is a small folly:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/boris-johnson-trump-brexit-leaked-recording?utm_term=.yt8DDKzVlW&__twitter_impression=true

The Irish Times story onbthis says

Friends of Mr Johnson said: “This was a private dinner under Chatham House rules so it is sad and very disappointing that it has been covertly recorded and distributed to the media.”

Is BJ not in favour of speaking his mind in public?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/boris-johnson-warns-of-brexit-meltdown-and-derides-border-folly-1.3523705

It was for a conservative group so who knows if it was near the truth. I imagine he has told 10 different dinners 10 different things which is why there is annoyance at the recording.

Beechwoodspark · 08-06-2018 07:01AM

Christy42 wrote: »

It was for a conservative group so who knows if it was near the truth. I imagine he has told 10 different dinners 10 different things which is why there is annoyance at the recording.

The way these things work is BoJo probably gave the nod for it to be leaked

He wants to present himself as the true defender of brexit.

I think at some stage he will end up in 10 downing st.

It’ll be fun seeing the backtracking then. He’s disingenuous and flaky at the best of times.

McGiver · 08-06-2018 07:04AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Johnson seems to think the Border is a small folly:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/boris-johnson-trump-brexit-leaked-recording?utm_term=.yt8DDKzVlW&__twitter_impression=true

Fascinating article and quite expansive.The man is completely delusional though. I thought his comments on Russia massively ironic.

“Putin feels a deep sense of shame that he’s leader of a country that has been so greatly reduced in its global importance,” Johnson said.

“When I was a kid, Russia really mattered. It’s now got an economy about the size of Australia. Yeah, they’ve they’ve got a lot of nuclear weapons, but it’s real importance in the world is greatly [diminished].”

And then...

"You’ve got to face the fact there may now be a meltdown. OK? I don’t want anybody to panic during the meltdown. No panic. Pro bono publico, no bloody panic. It’s going to be all right in the end.”

Clearly a personality disorder. Or just ignorant?

Wanderer78 · 08-06-2018 07:06AM

CelticRambler wrote:

The UK political scene has a dozen Trumps and Clintons, but no Bernie Sanders or Emmanuel Macron or Justin Trudeau or Jacinda Ardern (or Leo Varadkar ) - and the electorate simply doesn't care. As the saying goes, they've got the government they deserve.

I don't particularly like sayings such as 'theyve got the government they deserve', why should people be treated like this, these are normal human beings, who are just trying to get by, and it's also important to realise, if Brexit goes bad, it ll probably go bad for all of us to.

Nody · 08-06-2018 08:24AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I don't particularly like sayings such as 'theyve got the government they deserve', why should people be treated like this, these are normal human beings, who are just trying to get by, and it's also important to realise, if Brexit goes bad, it ll probably go bad for all of us to.

Because as voters they have a responsibility and duty on who they vote in and be informed in their decision; hence they get the government they deserve because they vote for who they want to rule on their behalf (as a group).

Mezcita · 08-06-2018 08:31AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I don't particularly like sayings such as 'theyve got the government they deserve', why should people be treated like this

Because they have chosen to take this path as well as to democratically elect the very people who will make them worse off. They also had the chance to change their electoral system and chose not too. Finally people happily believe the Rule Britannia nonsense they are spoon fed by their own press on a daily basis. But the strangest thing to me is that there are a huge number of remain voters who are choosing to sit back and let this happen.

I have to admit to having very little sympathy for them. They're about to get quite a loud wake up call.

Peregrinus · 08-06-2018 08:31AM

Nody wrote: »

Because as voters they have a responsibility and duty on who they vote in and be informed in their decision; hence they get the government they deserve because they vote for who they want to rule on their behalf (as a group).

But at the last general election, around three out of five voters voted for someone other than the Tories. The fact that they ended up with a Tory government anyway is not so much because they deserve one, as because a crapulous electoral system and an immature political culture delivered one.

Chips Lovell · 08-06-2018 08:41AM

That's true. But they had a chance to change that system as recently as 2011 and opted not to.

J Mysterio · 08-06-2018 08:42AM

Alistair Campbell savaged the government on Pat Kenny this morning, saying UK was becoming a laughing stock. Also said the recent comments mads him feel ashamed to be British.

Wanderer78 · 08-06-2018 08:57AM

Nody wrote: »

Because as voters they have a responsibility and duty on who they vote in and be informed in their decision; hence they get the government they deserve because they vote for who they want to rule on their behalf (as a group).

Mezcita wrote: »

Because they have chosen to take this path as well as to democratically elect the very people who will make them worse off. They also had the chance to change their electoral system and chose not too. Finally people happily believe the Rule Britannia nonsense they are spoon fed by their own press on a daily basis. But the strangest thing to me is that there are a huge number of remain voters who are choosing to sit back and let this happen.

I have to admit to having very little sympathy for them. They're about to get quite a loud wake up call.

democracy is now a commodity, that must be sold to us!

these are human beings whos lives and livelihoods are potentially under threat, a lack of empathy may reflect badly on those that advocate for such bad outcomes

Snickers Man · 08-06-2018 09:08AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

That would be unnecessary. If the UK leaves the SM, then cars exported from the UK to the EU will not be imported into the EU tariff free if their content is not more than 55% UK manufacture - which currently they are not. However, EU cars will be over 55% manufactured in the EU so will be imported tariff free.

So Brexiteers can continue to buy their German luxury cars tariff free, but the EU will not be able to buy their UK produced Hondas, Toyotas, Opel Astras, or Opel/Renault/Nissan vans tariff free. The EU van purchasers will have to buy Fiat or Mercedes or VW or Peugeot vans instead. 10% extra is a lot on a van.

I'm not sure that I don't understand what you're trying to deny here.
Or not.

Snickers Man · 08-06-2018 09:12AM

KingNerolives wrote: »

Imagine if that was Thatcher instead of may, she would have whipped the naysayers in her party into line with the authority of a leader! All the strong politicians are just a part of history now.

I think you're forgetting what got Thatcher shafted out of the job of Prime Minister.
By her OWN party.
#how old are you anyway? #read a history book

Mezcita · 08-06-2018 09:17AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

democracy is now a commodity, that must be sold to us!

these are human beings whos lives and livelihoods are potentially under threat, a lack of empathy may reflect badly on those that advocate for such bad outcomes

Everyone has an obligation to inform themselves about what they are voting for before they cast their vote. The fact that millions chose to believe the lies is their problem. Equally the fact that they appear happy to let their own government drive them off the cliff rather than take to the streets on mass is also their problem.

They'll learn a lesson in the harshest possible way but I think it's the only way that the UK will change for the better.

Wanderer78 · 08-06-2018 09:34AM

Mezcita wrote: »

Everyone has an obligation to inform themselves about what they are voting for before they cast their vote. The fact that millions chose to believe the lies is their problem. Equally the fact that they appear happy to let their own government drive them off the cliff rather than take to the streets on mass is also their problem.

They'll learn a lesson in the harshest possible way but I think it's the only way that the UK will change for the better.

all voters are manipulated to some degree, including you and me, theres no such thing as absolutes in this game, we simply have no way of predicting the future accurately, we make decisions on the best information available, and hope for the best. its important to realise, a part of the brexit vote was actually more to do about protesting, letting the established parties know, we re pissed! humans tend to be a little irrational when theyre angry.

this could cause great harm to the lives and livelihoods of many, both within the borders of the uk, and beyond

J Mysterio · 08-06-2018 09:43AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its important to realise, a part of the brexit vote was actually more to do about protesting, letting the established parties know, we re pissed! humans tend to be a little irrational when theyre angry.

Using the Brexit referendum as a 'protest vote' is actually the dumbest thing anyone could have done. Appallingly stupid.

Wanderer78 · 08-06-2018 09:45AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Using the Brexit referendum as a 'protest vote' is actually the dumbest thing anyone could have done. Appallingly stupid.

what if its seen as the only tool, or one of few tools to truly express your anger? its important to remember, the trump vote has similar thinking behind it, were these people dumb or just angry and fed up?

listermint · 08-06-2018 09:48AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

what if its seen as the only tool, or one of few tools to truly express your anger? its important to remember, the trump vote has similar thinking behind it, were these people dumb or just angry and fed up?

Well they voted to become angrier and that's on them Tbh. The exit is a hard lesson that needed , needs to be learned. And frankly I'm over it. They will soon realise how good they had it at the main table of one the biggest markets in the world . And not as a bit part player they were a cornerstone.

This anti EU nonsense will be swallowed soon enough and the reality of having such a stupid position will dawn. The UK was the EU not a them and us

Mezcita · 08-06-2018 09:49AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

this could cause great harm to the lives and livelihoods of many, both within the borders of the uk, and beyond

But they've voted for it. Even in places like Sunderland where Nissan (the largest employer) publicly stated that they would have to consider keeping the plant open if Brexit went ahead. So is that a protest vote or just total stupidity?

As well as the average Brexit voter probably didn't give a second's thought to the fact that the a hard border in the North essentially tears up the Good Friday Agreement. That hurts Ireland but f.uck it, rule Britannia.

So I'd agree that this will cause great harm to many people. Particularly those who made that protest vote in the first place. But my concern is more for Ireland rather than the UK. The UK is broken and it's very much their own fault. Living here is a daily reminder of that fact.

Zubeneschamali · 08-06-2018 09:56AM

I think a lot of the protest voters believed the mainstream view that Brexit could not pass, so they thought it was a safe protest. Cameron, the Government and the Westminster classes in general were against Brexit, so f... them.

Also the Irish attitude of "That was a stupid result, let's have another go" is alien to them. They are very much more by the rules than we are, so they see this as an irrevocable decision, will of the people, move on, join the queue to Brexit.

sink · 08-06-2018 10:02AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

what if its seen as the only tool, or one of few tools to truly express your anger? its important to remember, the trump vote has similar thinking behind it, were these people dumb or just angry and fed up?

They just had a general election in 2015 and were due another one in 2020 anyway, that's the perfect opportunity to give the government a kicking. Their votes may not matter in safe seat constituencies, but they had the opportunity to fix it as recently as 2011 and chose by 68% to reject it. As in the Brexit referendum the AV referendum was characterised by misinformation and bad temperament. It seems to me that the political culture in the UK is to blame and the political culture can only be blamed collectively on the British voters.

FreudianSlippers · 08-06-2018 10:07AM

The movement in the last 24 hours has me more sceptical than ever that a true "Brexit" will even happen. Kicking the can down the road until 2021, right before a GE has a strong whiff of a second referendum by any other name.

Frank Bullitt · 08-06-2018 10:08AM

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1004819434551349249

Where did they find Boris?

Brexit discussion thread III

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