Brexit discussion thread III

Nody · 03-06-2018 11:09PM

Remember those great parking lots for Dover to avoid the pile up of trucks?

Yea... they are sort of not on track to be ready on time for crash out

Highways Agency officials have told The Independent planned lorry parks will definitely not be available by March 2019 – too late to help tackle the estimated 30-mile lorry queues Dover is expected to face in the event of no deal being agreed upon.

Authorities have not even got as far as selecting the locations for the overflow lorry parks, with detailed proposals only set to be made public for consultation at the start of next year, 2019.

Thargor · 03-06-2018 11:28PM

Nody wrote: »

Remember those great parking lots for Dover to avoid the pile up of trucks?

Yea... they are sort of not on track to be ready on time for crash out

Jesus...

Literally not one single thing could be described as being run competently in this whole mess, I honestly cant wait to see what happens now, and we dont have that long to wait either.

flatty · 03-06-2018 11:36PM

It will end in rioting I suspect.

MBSnr · 03-06-2018 11:44PM

Thargor wrote: »

Jesus...

Literally not one single thing could be described as being run competently in this whole mess, I honestly cant wait to see what happens now, and we dont have that long to wait either.

Grabs popcorn.

Luckily I think most popcorn kernels are imported from the US, so if it all goes *hard border* cliff edge stuff, then at least we don't have to rely on UK imports for that.....

MBSnr · 04-06-2018 10:30AM

12 weeks it says here now... Can kicking...

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-chaos-eu-tells-may-uk-has-12-weeks-to-solve-ireland-border-issue-36973579.html

Capt'n Midnight · 04-06-2018 10:48AM

More UK economic news

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/03/house-of-frasers-future-hangs-in-balance-amid-cva-battle

The future of the embattled House of Fraser department store chain was hanging in the balance this weekend, as deadlock between its Chinese owner and lenders threatened to scupper its planned rescue package.

Political uncertainty over Brexit is weighing on business investment, which has fallen to the lowest level for a year, a survey indicates. Like consumers businesses are deferring investments.

Barclays is tightening its lending criteria to a UK economy that is lagging behind the rest of the world.

Capt'n Midnight · 04-06-2018 10:49AM

Some demographics - compare to leave vote

The English question: Young are less proud to be English

So those who think the UK won't get better voted to leave the EU while those who voted remain are more likely to think it will get better...

"Older people do tend to think things were better in the past but what's striking is that there isn't a demographic where the optimists outweigh the pessimists," said Mr Denham.

"This pessimism is not as universal in Wales and Scotland, where more people think the future will be better than the past, and where devolution has asked people what sort of nation they wanted to be in the 21st Century.

"England outside London has never had that. People have a sense that no-one is talking about the people outside the capital. In the EU referendum, the Leave campaign's slogan 'take back control' cut through for that reason."

trellheim · 04-06-2018 11:57AM

Well of course it did, it is in that top 10 list of populist slogans. But they elect an MP and by and large that MP has nowhere near the amount of parish pump crap that ours has to put up with. However do you see any move to make MP's more accountable to their constituents ? You do not.

Yet this twaddle got airtime, that plus "its de forriners/dey tuk er jobs" scaremongering. Dont get me wrong, NE england is savagely scarred by unemployment ( the Jarrow Marchers is one story that sticks with me ) but leaving the EU in no way helps with that.

dublinbuster · 04-06-2018 12:07PM

dublinbuster wrote: »

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.

Was mocked for this post 2 weeks ago, look what has happened since, the EU/Euro are in serious trouble, plenty of potential problem coming that could kill either or both.
Anti EU parties winning elections every time there is one in Europe, i reckon we are entering the beginning of the end phase, it might not be a total collapse of the EU/Euro but big changes are coming

Thargor · 04-06-2018 12:12PM

dublinbuster wrote: »

Was mocked for this post 2 weeks ago, look what has happened since, the EU/Euro are in serious trouble, plenty of potential problem coming that could kill either or both.
Anti EU parties winning elections every time there is one in Europe, i reckon we are entering the beginning of the end phase, it might not be a total collapse of the EU/Euro but big changes are coming

The non-issues in Italy and Spain have already settled down again, dont get your European news from the Daily Mail and the Express, Italy has had 60+ different governments since WWII, good luck sounding the death knell for the EU every time theres an argument in their parliament.

"Wont take much for East Europe to jump" lol yeah good luck with that.

dublinbuster · 04-06-2018 12:14PM

Thargor wrote: »

Italy and Spain have already settled down again, Italy has had 60+ different governments since WWII, good luck sounding the death knell for the EU every time theres an argument in their parliament.

I be back in 2 weeks to see the EU fans such as yourself try spin the next crisis as a good thing.
The EU/Euro is coming to a end, we all know it , there are those who accept it, and those who are in denial.

Nody · 04-06-2018 12:14PM

dublinbuster wrote: »

Was mocked for this post 2 weeks ago, look what has happened since, the EU/Euro are in serious trouble, plenty of potential problem coming that could kill either or both.
Anti EU parties winning elections every time there is one in Europe, i reckon we are entering the beginning of the end phase, it might not be a total collapse of the EU/Euro but big changes are coming

Care to show where in the Italian government agenda on leaving the EU is listed? Or perhaps the Socialist point in Spain? No? They don't exist? You're still telling things that simply is not happening? Yea; nothing has changed in those two weeks and your claims are still as silly. Heck the Italian government did not only tone down the whole anti EU part during the election but backed down over having an anti EU finance minister vetoed as well... That if anything proves the opposite of what you're claiming.

Thargor · 04-06-2018 12:16PM

dublinbuster wrote: »

I be back in 2 weeks to see the EU fans such as yourself try spin the next crisis as a good thing.
The EU/Euro is coming to a end, we all know it , there are those who accept it, and those who are in denial.

Why not quote your whole post by the way? The bit where you claim "UK has the whip hand and it gets stronger the longer it drags out" was particularly interesting, will you come back and explain that one in 2 weeks aswell?

MBSnr · 04-06-2018 12:29PM

Liam might be busy..

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/95657/brussels-rules-leave-britain-weeks-brexit-keep-existing

CrabRevolution · 04-06-2018 12:47PM

dublinbuster wrote: »

Was mocked for this post 2 weeks ago, look what has happened since, the EU/Euro are in serious trouble, plenty of potential problem coming that could kill either or both.
Anti EU parties winning elections every time there is one in Europe, i reckon we are entering the beginning of the end phase, it might not be a total collapse of the EU/Euro but big changes are coming

Do you even read the news?

If you're counting the likes of the governing parties of Italy and Hungary as "anti EU" then that's maybe 2 or 3 examples.

If you're talking about parties who run on a platform of actually leaving the EU like the UK is doing, their success rate has been 0%.

Like AfD in Germany getting 13%.
Marine Le Pen losing the French presidential election.
The FN getting 8 seats out of 577 in the French parliamentary election.
Geert Wilders PVV getting 13% in the Dutch Election.

Those were just the high profile elections last year. Since the brexit vote there's been general elections in Germany, Bulgaria, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Croatia, Lithuania, France, Romania and Slovenia. Not one of which has produced a government even hinting at leaving the EU.

As far as I'm aware the AAA-PBP-solidarity-whatever are our only Eurosceptic party and they hover around 4% of the Irish vote.

Professor Moriarty · 04-06-2018 01:01PM

dublinbuster wrote: »

Was mocked for this post 2 weeks ago, look what has happened since, the EU/Euro are in serious trouble, plenty of potential problem coming that could kill either or both.
Anti EU parties winning elections every time there is one in Europe, i reckon we are entering the beginning of the end phase, it might not be a total collapse of the EU/Euro but big changes are coming

I think you need to differentiate anti-immigration votes from anti-EU votes. If the EU addresses many of Italy's (and others') legitimate concerns about immigration then much of the anti-EU sentiment will ease.

Water John · 04-06-2018 01:05PM

Buster, says he will be back in 2 weeks. That's after his holiday in Spain.
No border or money problems.

Capt'n Midnight · 04-06-2018 01:10PM

http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9ff9f470-e000-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c?source=next&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=700

https://www.ft.com/content/ceac2d00-dffc-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c

Some breakdown on UK services. If the EU doesn't continue to allow full acess they'll be overly reliant on the US with all that entails. Unless they can drum up multiples of existing volumes of trade with all others which sounds like wishful thinking.

McGiver · 04-06-2018 01:11PM

Thargor wrote: »

dublinbuster wrote: »

Was mocked for this post 2 weeks ago, look what has happened since, the EU/Euro are in serious trouble, plenty of potential problem coming that could kill either or both.
Anti EU parties winning elections every time there is one in Europe, i reckon we are entering the beginning of the end phase, it might not be a total collapse of the EU/Euro but big changes are coming

The non-issues in Italy and Spain have already settled down again, dont get your European news from the Daily Mail and the Express, Italy has had 60+ different governments since WWII, good luck sounding the death knell for the EU every time theres an argument in their parliament.

"Wont take much for East Europe to jump" lol yeah good luck with that.

What is "East Europe" exactly?

Capt'n Midnight · 04-06-2018 01:26PM

CrabRevolution wrote: »

As far as I'm aware the AAA-PBP-solidarity-whatever are our only Eurosceptic party and they hover around 4% of the Irish vote.

Before Bexit I'd have counted SF as being Anti-EU.

So you could argue that EU political support here has actually gone up. SF aren't trilled about the EU though.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think you need to differentiate anti-immigration votes from anti-EU votes. If the EU addresses many of Italy's (and others') legitimate concerns about immigration then much of the anti-EU sentiment will ease.

The irony of course is that the EU being stricter on immigration would remove much of the logic of Brexit.

As for taking back control, how many trade deals they are giving up and how difficult it will be to get them back, nevermind improve on them ?

Freedom's just another word for nothin' left to lose
- Kris Kristofferson

Mtx · 04-06-2018 01:34PM

Who will last longer may or foster?

dublinbuster · 04-06-2018 01:36PM

Nody wrote: »

Care to show where in the Italian government agenda on leaving the EU is listed? Heck the Italian government did not only tone down the whole anti EU part during the election but backed down over having an anti EU finance minister vetoed as well... That if anything proves the opposite of what you're claiming.

Giovanni Tria the new Italian finance minister is a Euroskeptic, possible more so than the first choice.
Big changes are coming to EU/Euro

In his own words

'The German surplus is the sign of the failure of the euro"

"We must be able to print money"

" The only strategy that under the described conditions seems possible, as well as necessary, is therefore that of a fiscal stimulus financed through the creation of money. In other words, what is proposed is the monetization of a part of the public deficits, destined to finance, without creating additional debt, a broad and generalized program of public investments, with the constraint of maintaining a primary surplus net of this financing, obtained through the control of current expenditure"

"It is not right who invokes the exit from the euro without ifs and buts as a panacea of all ills, but the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, is also right when he says that "the euro is irreversible", if it does not clarify the conditions and the times for the necessary reforms for its survival. Also because the greatest danger is implosion, not exit."

Capt'n Midnight · 04-06-2018 01:40PM

McGiver wrote: »

What is "East Europe" exactly?

It's all the countries that are worried about having to face Russia alone.

The EU's isn't just about money.

Professor Moriarty · 04-06-2018 01:42PM

dublinbuster wrote: »

Giovanni Tria the new Italian finance minister is a Euroskeptic, possible more so than the first choice.
Big changes are coming to EU/Euro

In his own words

'The German surplus is the sign of the failure of the euro"

"We must be able to print money"

" The only strategy that under the described conditions seems possible, as well as necessary, is therefore that of a fiscal stimulus financed through the creation of money. In other words, what is proposed is the monetization of a part of the public deficits, destined to finance, without creating additional debt, a broad and generalized program of public investments, with the constraint of maintaining a primary surplus net of this financing, obtained through the control of current expenditure"

"It is not right who invokes the exit from the euro without ifs and buts as a panacea of all ills, but the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, is also right when he says that "the euro is irreversible", if it does not clarify the conditions and the times for the necessary reforms for its survival. Also because the greatest danger is implosion, not exit."

He's talking populist bollocks. Assuming he's not a fool, he must know that Italy's economy will tank if they go it alone. So he's pandering to the great unwashed and their blind rage.

Nody · 04-06-2018 01:49PM

Mtx wrote: »

Who will last longer may or foster?

Foster; DUP will support her as long as she does not appear to give in to SF in NI where as May is unlikely to survive long after 30th March next year (no matter the outcome).

dublinbuster · 04-06-2018 02:00PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He's talking populist bollocks. Assuming he's not a fool, he must know that Italy's economy will tank if they go it alone. So he's pandering to the great unwashed and their blind rage.

He said all of that last year, well before a political career beckoned.

Never heard of cognitive dissonance before trump won the election, but i see plenty of it now coming from the EU/Euro fans.

Strazdas · 04-06-2018 02:00PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Before Bexit I'd have counted SF as being Anti-EU.

So you could argue that EU political support here has actually gone up. SF aren't trilled about the EU though.

Sinn Fein are talking about wanting Northern Ireland to be in the Single Market and Customs Union, so they've pretty much totally changed their former anti-EU stance.

ambro25 · 04-06-2018 02:01PM

dublinbuster wrote: »

Giovanni Tria the new Italian finance minister is a Euroskeptic, possible more so than the first choice.
Big changes are coming to EU/Euro

In his own words

'The German surplus is the sign of the failure of the euro"

"We must be able to print money"

" The only strategy that under the described conditions seems possible, as well as necessary, is therefore that of a fiscal stimulus financed through the creation of money. In other words, what is proposed is the monetization of a part of the public deficits, destined to finance, without creating additional debt, a broad and generalized program of public investments, with the constraint of maintaining a primary surplus net of this financing, obtained through the control of current expenditure"

He sounds about as competent as May’s lot.

I predict global popcorn shortages shortly. A better investment strategy than billion-denominated Lira banknotes or Italian sovereign debt, if you ask me.

Professor Moriarty · 04-06-2018 02:01PM

dublinbuster wrote: »

He said all of that last year, well before a political career beckoned.

Never heard of cognitive dissonance before trump won the election, but i see plenty of it now coming from the EU/Euro fans.

As a matter of interest, are you Irish?

Anthracite · 04-06-2018 02:17PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As a matter of interest, are you Irish?

I think we can all guess the true answer to that.

On another point, there's interesting stuff on the EUreferendum website, where one poster, apparently a senior civil servant, is talking about fleeing to Ireland before Brexit day as he expects carnage. Today he has mentioned that the UK government has investigated the use of VISA's (or Mastercard's) systems to implement rationing post-Brexit, but have been told it can't be implemented until a couple of years too late.

Brexit discussion thread III

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