Brexit discussion thread III

embraer170 · 28-04-2018 11:27PM

Having a large third country pay into the EU budget but have absolutely no formal say in the EU decision and policy making process is not a bad position for the remaining Member States. You don't even have a say on the overall EU budget (and increases on contributions).

The contribution will not enjoy the UK rebate either.

Good luck with the 300 million for the NHS.

Capt'n Midnight · 28-04-2018 11:48PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Applying for membership is one thing, being accepted is another... neither Norway nor Switzerland want a dominant trouble maker joining the group. I expect to see a referendum in Switzerland over it. Hell, I’ll start the process myself in no one else does :-)

the Swiss are upset because all new deals with them are off for the duration in case they set a precedent that the UK can use for Brexit.

As I keep saying the UK has a much larger population and economy, and are heading the opposite direction to the other members. Scotland would be a good fit due to a similar economy to Norway, raw materials, food, energy , food.

England with it's reliance on services and Jet Engines not so much.

Rain Ascending · 29-04-2018 12:05AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The UK Independent claims May could offer effective freedom of movement, with an "emergency brake" included as a face-saving measure:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-talks-latest-eu-immigration-free-movement-offer-a8326101.html#commentsDiv

The Sunday Times has some interesting detail here: this is a proposal backed by Amber Rudd and has the objective of obtaining a better result for the UK in trade negotiations.

I draw two conclusions:
(a) This is not a cabinet-approved approach to the negotiations (no surprise there!).
(b) The ultimate objective of the proposal is to hold on to Single Market membership.

The latter conclusion comes from the observation that one of the key challenges (for the UK) for retaining Single Market membership is the "pillar"/pre-condition of Freedom of Movement (FoM). It seems Rudd is proposing something that sounds like FoM and so is likely to be aiming at staying in the Single Market. Otherwise, why link a FoM-like immigration policy with the trade negotiations? This proposal is certainly not needed on the table if all that the UK is looking for is a "good" free trade agreement.

Now the speculation: most leaks/briefings/quotes in the UK are directed at the internal negotiations within the UK and/or the Conservatives. My guess is that this set of leaks is a trial balloon to check to see if something like EEA/EFTA membership is acceptable domestically. Or else Rudd is trying to shore up her support from pro-Remain Tories, even as she comes under severe pressure over Windrush.

EdgeCase · 29-04-2018 08:34PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

the Swiss are upset because all new deals with them are off for the duration in case they set a precedent that the UK can use for Brexit.

As I keep saying the UK has a much larger population and economy, and are heading the opposite direction to the other members. Scotland would be a good fit due to a similar economy to Norway, raw materials, food, energy , food.

England with it's reliance on services and Jet Engines not so much.

I'd say the main concern is that the UK would come in with the notion that it was now running EFTA and just ignore the other members' interests. It hasn't shown any ability to play ball in the EU, so why would it be any different in EFTA?

All they (the current Tories and Brexiteers*) see it as is a vehicle for accessing the EU market, not as any kind of expression of solidarity towards other members. You can forget any notion of them actually thinking they should be expected to see 'trade offs' or any kind of compromises or consensus building. They seem to no longer do that kind of thing.

*I am very deliberately avoiding personifying "the UK" as these policies are only being driven by a particular slice of, largely, English right wing politics. They're not reflective of the entire country.

Nody · 29-04-2018 09:30PM

Rain Ascending wrote: »

The Sunday Times has some interesting detail here: this is a proposal backed by Amber Rudd and has the objective of obtaining a better result for the UK in trade negotiations.

I draw two conclusions:
(a) This is not a cabinet-approved approach to the negotiations (no surprise there!).
(b) The ultimate objective of the proposal is to hold on to Single Market membership.

The latter conclusion comes from the observation that one of the key challenges (for the UK) for retaining Single Market membership is the "pillar"/pre-condition of Freedom of Movement (FoM). It seems Rudd is proposing something that sounds like FoM and so is likely to be aiming at staying in the Single Market. Otherwise, why link a FoM-like immigration policy with the trade negotiations? This proposal is certainly not needed on the table if all that the UK is looking for is a "good" free trade agreement.

Now the speculation: most leaks/briefings/quotes in the UK are directed at the internal negotiations within the UK and/or the Conservatives. My guess is that this set of leaks is a trial balloon to check to see if something like EEA/EFTA membership is acceptable domestically. Or else Rudd is trying to shore up her support from pro-Remain Tories, even as she comes under severe pressure over Windrush.

Don't see it flying to be honest because it's cherry picking at it's finest. Either freedom of movement is there or it is not; no "Oh well we can stop one of the freedoms if needed" clause will be allowed.

Water John · 29-04-2018 10:14PM

Rudd is gone.
She should now go to the fore of Tories staying in Europe but may not have the heart, to do so.

Professor Moriarty · 29-04-2018 10:17PM

Water John wrote: »

Rudd is gone.

Hmmm. Interesting to see who will replace her. She was a Remainer at heart.

Spanish Eyes · 29-04-2018 10:32PM

Theresa May was her predecessor or am I wrong?

LeinsterDub · 29-04-2018 10:35PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Theresa May was her predecessor or am I wrong?

Nope you're not wrong this is May's mess she's just letting someone else fall on their sword on her behalf

Enzokk · 29-04-2018 10:39PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hmmm. Interesting to see who will replace her. She was a Remainer at heart.

A couple of things to look out for, as you say who will replace her in cabinet as this is the second Remainer that has lost their job in the last six months. Secondly, will Theresa May face any backlash due to this. Amber Rudd has fallen on her sword as she just carried on the policies from Theresa May. We could see a new election before July.

You have to wonder what the fallout will be. Amber Rudd had to go. She lied repeatedly to cover for her job. But she did pass on targets to the PM. The targets were set before she took the job by the PM. I would not be surprised if this is what brings the government down. It's not the actual scandal here but the cover up. The Guardian has reported on this for more than 6 months and there has only been recognition in the past week or so. So one minister has gone and as the scandal spreads wings and deaths of people are reported due to their treatment, which I am sure is out there, Theresa May will resign as well. Good riddance to her in my opinion as she started the persecution of legal migrants that were easy targets to try and bring the immigration numbers down to below 100 000. Who set that target? David Cameron. We are seeing the crows coming home to roost for the Conservatives.

Spanish Eyes · 29-04-2018 10:39PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Nope you're not wrong this is May's mess she's just letting someone else fall on their sword on her behalf

Thanks,

I thought as much when TM said she had full faith in her. The kiss of death.

Anyway Windrush was an issue alright and such issues ain't over yet. Wonder who will be the next one to take over this benighted role in UK?

They seem clueless to me in many respects, but I better shut up now!

Water John · 29-04-2018 10:40PM

The hostile immigration policy is from May's time on the job. Rudd caught either not knowing or denying there were migrant targets.
Crime most likely, misleading Parliament.
Always, one of the few Tories I would like.

Enzokk · 29-04-2018 10:43PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Thanks,

I thought as much when TM said she had full faith in her. The kiss of death.

Anyway Windrush was an issue alright and such issues ain't over yet. Wonder who will be the next one to take over this benighted role in UK?

They seem clueless to me in many respects, but I better shut up now!

Its a loaded gun to the temple, the Home Secretary job. You are taking over a role from someone who got sacked for following the policies of your own employer, the PM. You cannot change anything because that would be admitting the policies were a mistake by the person who implemented them. So you will just have to continue doing the job as before, which we see now is a mess. You also cannot blame any problems on your predecessors, which has been a mainstay of politicians for ages as you would be blaming...the PM.

An Ciarraioch · 29-04-2018 10:45PM

Gove appears to be the favourite to replace her, according to the Guardian and the latest odds, but it also mentions Politico Europe tipping Savid Javid, who would be another strong Remainer.

EdgeCase · 29-04-2018 10:46PM

Just as long as May doesn't appoint JRM as some miscalculated attempt to appease the Brexiteers. She's made some very odd political choices.

Enzokk · 29-04-2018 10:46PM

Water John wrote: »

The hostile immigration policy is from May's time on the job. Rudd caught either not knowing or denying there were migrant targets.
Crime most likely, misleading Parliament.
Always, one of the few Tories I would like.

She did know about the targets. She sent a letter to the PM saying the targets were going to be tough to achieve, but it can be done. She resigned for lying about it. Theresa May should be next to fall.

Amber Rudd letter to PM reveals 'ambitious but deliverable' removals target

The private letter from Amber Rudd to Downing Street in which she sets an “ambitious but deliverable” target for an increase in the enforced deportation of immigrants has been published by the Guardian in full for the first time.

The letter, signed by the home secretary in January last year, states that she is refocusing work within her department to achieve the “aim of increasing the number of enforced removals by more than 10% over the next few years”.

Water John · 29-04-2018 10:50PM

Yes you can do a volte face, on your predecessor. Here Varadkar had no problem doing it. You simply show it's not working. Different though, if who you replace moves up to PM.

Spanish Eyes · 29-04-2018 11:02PM

Wasn't Theresa May a previous incumbent in that role? And probably knew all about Windrush, and much more too I suspect.

Jeez who would want to be a politician when the knives are poised at your back at every turn. But never for the morons like JRMogg and that hairy moron that is Boris Johnson. Reluctant to say BJ for obvious reasons, but just said it so there!

Water John · 29-04-2018 11:06PM

Policy in the UK can change from time to time. Like the fact that, it doesn't have a written Constitution but a whole rigmarole of historical precedents. The Windrush gen had no formal citizenship docs. So when you change policy and harden it, on employers, NHS and landlords, they feel a cold wind.

Strazdas · 30-04-2018 01:00AM

Enzokk wrote: »

She did know about the targets. She sent a letter to the PM saying the targets were going to be tough to achieve, but it can be done. She resigned for lying about it. Theresa May should be next to fall.

Amber Rudd letter to PM reveals 'ambitious but deliverable' removals target

"Enforced removals"......they're an absolute shower, aren't they?

Peregrinus · 30-04-2018 02:55AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

To put that in context :

During the whole of 2017, just over half of UK exports went to either Ireland or the Netherlands.

Well, in fairness, if the UK imposes a70% tariff on Irish beef they'll have to impose the same tariff on every country in the world with whom they do not have a trade deal. Which, on day 1 after Brexit, will be every country in the world.

In that scenario, protecting British exports of beef won't be an issue. They'll need every kilo of beef they slaughter for their own domestic market.

Rjd2 · 30-04-2018 03:24AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Gove appears to be the favourite to replace her, according to the Guardian and the latest odds, but it also mentions Politico Europe tipping Savid Javid, who would be another strong Remainer.

Won't be Gove as he and May don't really have much in common and May will want a remainer to replace Rudd or at least if a Brexiter a female and someone loyal to her. Maybe James Brokenshire or Karen Bradley either? Two remainers and both pretty loyal to May.

Javid should get it though.

EdgeCase wrote: »

Just as long as May doesn't appoint JRM as some miscalculated attempt to appease the Brexiteers. She's made some very odd political choices.

People need to stop talking about Mogg when it comes to top jobs like this, he has no experience in cabinet and has been clear in not been keen whatsoever to leave the backbenches. He is having a superb time, raising his profile and has the freedom to say what he wants where he is. He also is a millionaire many times over so not as if struggling either.

Peregrinus · 30-04-2018 03:48AM

May faces two separate decisions here. First, who is to be Home Secretary? Second, who is to be appointed to Cabinet, and should care be taken to replace Remainer Rudd with another Remainer, so as to preserve the Remain/Leave balance?

The two questions don't have to have the same answer, since an existing Cabinet member can be moved into the Home Office, and a new appointee put into the position thus vacated.

The constraints are: First a credible Home Secretary needs substantial ministerial experience. The more so in the present circumstances since they are taking on a Department at the centre of a political crisis. So it has to be somebody of acknowledged experience and competence. Secondly, shifting the Leave/Remain balance by putting another Leaver in Cabinet would send a hostile signal to Tory Remainers just at a time when the Remainish tendency in the Tory party is building up steam. May would be unwise to do that. Thirdly, if she is lucky, May might have a chance to weaken the Remainer side by seducing away one of its more weighty members with honeyed words, blandishments and a seat at the Cabinet table. I don't have anyone in mind, but May will probably at least consider whether she has the opportunity to do that.

Rjd2 · 30-04-2018 04:08AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

May faces two separate decisions here. First, who is to be Home Secretary? Second, who is to be appointed to Cabinet, and should care be taken to replace Remainer Rudd with another Remainer, so as to preserve the Remain/Leave balance?

The two questions don't have to have the same answer, since an existing Cabinet member can be moved into the Home Office, and a new appointee put into the position thus vacated.

The constraints are: First a credible Home Secretary needs substantial ministerial experience. The more so in the present circumstances since they are taking on a Department at the centre of a political crisis. So it has to be somebody of acknowledged experience and competence. Secondly, shifting the Leave/Remain balance by putting another Leaver in Cabinet would send a hostile signal to Tory Remainers just at a time when the Remainish tendency in the Tory party is building up steam. May would be unwise to do that. Thirdly, if she is lucky, May might have a chance to weaken the Remainer side by seducing away one of its more weighty members with honeyed words, blandishments and a seat at the Cabinet table. I don't have anyone in mind, but May will probably at least consider whether she has the opportunity to do that.

Guardian were speculating about Morgan earlier, female also and would not turn the job down. However her and May don't get on for reasons not just Brexit and it would be a leftfield type of play and well Theresa isn't exactly known for that.

Javid is the obvious choice, remainer but a very soft one and was very eloquent this weekend about Windrush. Without sounding cynical they also need to get some diversity into the main roles. Obviously the best person for the job etc, but not as if they are many more qualified white people anyhow:pac:

Bradley I suspect is standing outside May's window screaming for the job, her current role? Would not wish that on my worst enemy:p

murphaph · 30-04-2018 06:52AM

I'm sure the EU parliament (especially) is looking on in horror at the whole Windrush scandal. I mean this body, more than any other, represents the citizens of Europe. It will demand pretty cast iron guarantees from the UK about anything concerning citizens' rights post Brexit, considering how appallingly the UK is treating its very own (but immigrant) citizens right now.

flatty · 30-04-2018 09:01AM

Enzokk wrote: »

Water John wrote: »

The hostile immigration policy is from May's time on the job. Rudd caught either not knowing or denying there were migrant targets.
Crime most likely, misleading Parliament.
Always, one of the few Tories I would like.

She did know about the targets. She sent a letter to the PM saying the targets were going to be tough to achieve, but it can be done. She resigned for lying about it. Theresa May should be next to fall.

Amber Rudd letter to PM reveals 'ambitious but deliverable' removals target

The private letter from Amber Rudd to Downing Street in which she sets an “ambitious but deliverable” target for an increase in the enforced deportation of immigrants has been published by the Guardian in full for the first time.

The letter, signed by the home secretary in January last year, states that she is refocusing work within her department to achieve the “aim of increasing the number of enforced removals by more than 10% over the next few years”.

In her defence, I suspect she has so many letters thrust under her nose to sign that it may well have passed relatively unheeded. Lord knows I've signed letters in the past week I've only skimmed, and couldn't tell you the detail.
She was relatively new in the job, and it must have been overwhelming. Someone powerful wanted her gone. I doubt she lied very much. Just testified under pressure, without having had the time to fully brief herself. The letter was a teresa may classic of the two adjective statement. "ambitious and deliverable," "stable and strong" "deep and meaningful"
Rudd had no time to adjust the course of the home office, firmly set by her predecessor, and the genuine villain of the piece who still evades censure.
There was a decent article in The Times on Saturday by Matthew Parris about it all. His main thrust was that teresa may merely locked her door, responded to noone, and hired to thugs to dictate and enforce policy, and that rudd, nor any other home secretary, can drive a ship whilst facing the audience.

FrancieBrady · 30-04-2018 09:05AM

Barnier's speech in Co. Louth today is to be broadcast 'live' on RTE.

Is he expected to make a major pronouncement?

Beechwoodspark · 30-04-2018 09:08AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Barnier's speech in Co. Louth today is to be broadcast 'live' on RTE.

Is he expected to make a major pronouncement?

It’s being touted as yet another reprimand to the UK

Hurrache · 30-04-2018 09:31AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Barnier's speech in Co. Louth today is to be broadcast 'live' on RTE.

Is he expected to make a major pronouncement?

10:45 RTE News Extra isn't it?

FrancieBrady · 30-04-2018 09:33AM

Hurrache wrote: »

10:45 RTE News Extra isn't it?

I think that is what they said.

Brexit discussion thread III

Comments