Brexit discussion thread III

trellheim · 18-03-2018 01:35PM

I think that failing to pay their dues will be tantamount to declaring a trade war. That will not go well for the UK, and as is said often 'No one wins a trade war'.

The exit payment is only paying for those charges that they had already agreed to, so welshing on them would be considered a hostile act and result in retaliation. snip

Only in the context of an agreed transition - which isn't agreed ! That was why I said "technically correct"

Strazdas · 18-03-2018 01:53PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is quite facile to be honest. If you want to see the truth, follow the money. Take Britian First who've recently been banned by Facebook. Sure, you have your racists there who like the page on Facebook but behind that you have people like Jim Dowson who has fingers in many pies and has even had the page advertise property in Hungary with it's ethnographics or perhaps lack thereof advertised as a selling point. Ultimately though, it's overblown and the media loves to make hay with it to sell papers and ad space. The left-wing press loves to slag the righjt off for racism while the right-wing press in turn likes to slag off the lefties for things like wanting free handouts and being naive. The two ultimately feed off each other, offering ever more populist policies while the moderates who ask questions like "How do we pay for this?" or "What will this do to the economy?" get drowned out.

Here's a good BBC documentary about Britain First if anyone is interested.

Sand states that Blair was hoping to bin the Tories by letting in so many EU migrants. If there's any more info on this, I would be very interested. Perhaps Blair had plans to streamline citizenship applications and was confident of winning the next election so that the requisite 5 years could pass for these EU nationals to be eligible to vote. Only Ireland, Sweden and the UK declined to put restrictions on Eastern EU migration in place following their accession to the EU.

The other thing to bear in mind is that most people aren't terribly interested in Politics so a lot of people voting for Leave, or indeed Remain for that matter probably made up their minds very quickly based on the messages that went into their houses or devices. That's not a good thing but it's ubiquitous across the world. Too many people just look for the party they usually vote for on the ballot paper and put an "X" in the corresponding box and on they get with their lives.

Ultimately though, I think Brexit was the result of a perfect storm:
[*]NHS: Successive Blair governments were responsible for the PFI scandal which is still a major drain on NHS finances. Factor in the fact that the state seems to have no interest in evolving the service to meet the demands of an ageing population and a lack of interest in properly increasing its funding or specialising hospitals further and it's no surprise that it was a major talking point during the debate.

[*]Immigration: As with the NHS, various governments involving all 3 major parties really should have done better with managing immigration. Houses were not built in sufficient quantities while existing social housing stock continued to be sold off. New Garden cities could have been built during the boom, more could have been invested in social housing to protect the poorest Britons from homelessness or the government could have restricted it for years while developing a long term strategy. Instead, a laissez-faire attitude was adopted. Things were going fine so nobody rocked the boat and northern towns which are quite poor and received no support for Westminster voted to Leave when given the chance.

[*]Sovereignty: Ultimately, I think that much of the British establishment was hoping for a "Remain" win from the referendum, even among Leave leaning but not pro-Leave contingents within and without the Conservative party. It would have settled the question for a generation. However, the narrative that the UK is actually run by Brussels has permeated deep into the minds of many voters. The Ashcroft polls ascribe 49% of the Leave vote to Sovereignty which is massive, especially compared to the 33% who say they were primarily concerned about immigration.

I do not know what is going to happen next. I don't think that a second referendum yielding a slight win for remain will fix anything. British society is deeply unequal and divided. Many cosmopolitans resent being dragged out of the European project by the lower classes while said lower classes struggle to see the EU and the establishment as a fixed game with the odds being stacked overwhelmingly against them. This needs addressing urgently. The right Brexit might do that. I don't know how that might happen but if the elites finally see that this schism needs addressing then that might lead to some progress and perhaps even a re-entry to the EU.

The idea too that putting an X on a ballot paper can somehow miraculously solve all the UK's problems is clearly nonsensical. If anything, Brexiteers and the 17m Leave invested way too much importance into the referendum. It was only a silly advisory referendum dreamt up by a motley crew of populists, opportunists and cranks - it will do next to nothing to improve their lives.

Econ_ · 18-03-2018 02:31PM

Tropheus wrote: »

Brexiteers threaten EU.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/933239/brexit-news-jacob-rees-mogg-leave-means-leave-letter-EU

"A LEADING group of Brexiteers has warned the EU to stop bullying Britain and “get on with Brexit” – or face losing our multi-billion pound “divorce” payment."

Funny how the 'bullying' claims are being made by precisely the same people who had, up until now, claimed that "we hold all the cards" and "they need us more than we need them...[insert some random import/export statistic out of context here]"

It's also amusing as to how you can even attempt to spin the negotiations as 'EU bullying' when the EU's position has not budged since before the referendum. They have been entirely consistent.

'You're not moving....stop bullying me!'

ancapailldorcha · 18-03-2018 02:34PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The idea too that putting an X on a ballot paper can somehow miraculously solve all the UK's problems is clearly nonsensical. If anything, Brexiteers and the 17m Leave invested way too much importance into the referendum. It was only a silly advisory referendum dreamt up by a motley crew of populists, opportunists and cranks - it will do next to nothing to improve their lives.

Of course not. But as I said, follow the money. For the "Bad boys of Brexit" it was about securing the Leave victory. That's it.

CelticRambler · 18-03-2018 03:21PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

On the EU side the requirement to threat all EU citizens the same as your own makes it hard to argue the they have to leave on economic grounds when their entitlement to benefits means they can live the same way a sizable block of the population do.

There is no requirement to treat non-citizens from other EU states the same as the natives unless they have already acquired rights of permanent residence. The basic rule is that to benefit from your EU right of free movement, and then exceed 90 days of continual residence in any other EU state, you have to demonstrate that you are not a burden on the state, i.e. have a job or have sufficent independent means.

France has always applied that rule; Britain chose not to. It's not the EU's fault that some other EU nationals decided to profit from the UK's (and Ireland's) generosity and lax attitude to financial self-sufficiency; but as pointed out previously on this thread, the vast majority of EU migrants who move(d) to the UK make/made a net contribution to the economy. Voting for Brexit so as to get rid of these productive immigrants was just as illogical as all the other supposed justifications.

Water John · 18-03-2018 03:23PM

The timescale of payments, post a settlement can be very long. Irish farmers only finished paying land annuities in the late 1970s and Germany's reparation for WW2 less than 10 years ago.
The trick is to stretch them over a long period of time. So the UK could be paying to the EU for the next 40 years.

flutered · 18-03-2018 03:38PM

Tropheus wrote: »

Brexiteers threaten EU.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/933239/brexit-news-jacob-rees-mogg-leave-means-leave-letter-EU

Do they not understand their place in the modern world? They'll be threatening Russia next

they have, rees mogg posted that britan should have a permenant force in the baltic, to keep russia in its place, the link to the tweet is over on ds

flutered · 18-03-2018 03:41PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's not a threat to be honest. It's empty posturing for the benefit of looking strong. A paper tiger if you will. What they fail to understand is that nobody in Brussels is going to care one whit about nonsense like this.

they are preaching to their converted, as they are the only ones who will take any notice of such balderdash

Water John · 18-03-2018 03:43PM

I suppose he wants to go back into Crimea too, for another round, 150 years later.

flutered · 18-03-2018 03:44PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think that failing to pay their dues will be tantamount to declaring a trade war. That will not go well for the UK, and as is said often 'No one wins a trade war'.

The exit payment is only paying for those charges that they had already agreed to, so welshing on them would be considered a hostile act and result in retaliation. Now the UK want to continue as best mates as far as Russia and defense/security is concerned, I think refusing to pay your debts will not end well.

it would invite the wto into the conundrum, at a time they are looking to get under that particular umberella

Professor Moriarty · 18-03-2018 03:47PM

flutered wrote: »

they have, rees mogg posted that britan should have a permenant force in the baltic, to keep russia in its place, the link to the tweet is over on ds

And of course the Baltic countries will obey Mogg's every whim. Mogg is a creature of his upbringing. A Little Englander to his marrow.

Leroy42 · 18-03-2018 04:13PM

Boris was on the Marr show this morning.

Most of it dealt with Russia but Marr did bring up NI and hard border.

What followed, from Boris, was pretty extraordinary.

Can't link to it but it'll be on youtube.

To me it summed up everything about the UK governments approach to the issues Brexit has created and shows just how difficult a time the EU and Ireland must be having trying to deal with the UK

Enzokk · 18-03-2018 04:39PM

Tropheus wrote: »

Brexiteers threaten EU.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/933239/brexit-news-jacob-rees-mogg-leave-means-leave-letter-EU

Do they not understand their place in the modern world? They'll be threatening Russia next

Anybody know about the EU regulations that require companies to measure their desks and chairs so their employees sits comfortably? John Longworth mentions this in the video in that linked article and I cannot find anything that the EU requires companies to measure all their desks.

Also on that article, firstly as mentioned before the Brexit divorce payment is not something that can be denied as all politicians have confirmed that the UK will pay their obligations they made to the EU. This is what the payment is so it is an empty threat.

Secondly I see that they are threatening the EU with WTO tariffs and stating that German car manufacturers will lose 8 billion euro annually and that the Irish beef and dairy exports will decline by half. Those are scary statistics, but they assume that on WTO tariffs the UK will not suffer any decline economically and all the hurt will be on the EU. They are betting that the EU will be sensible because they are threatening harm to the EU. I think that if the EU gives in to the UK with this then in future the UK will just demand more and more like a petulant child who has seen a weakness with a parent and who will use it to its advantage to get what it wants.

This is another case of politicians not being open to the public about the reality of Brexit. Those that read this and want Brexit will believe what the story states and will gladly want the UK to go ahead with WTO tariffs. Brexit coverage and misinformation in a nutshell.

listermint · 18-03-2018 05:41PM

I assume he is referring to workplace ergonomics guidelines for businesses you might assume by the name guidelines that they are guidelines and you would be correct too.

Angry bird · 18-03-2018 06:10PM

Different day, same old carry on. I don't see May and co caving into EU red lines, the EU blame game will continue on as it always has. I simply do not see the bridge being gapped as things stand.

Tropheus · 18-03-2018 06:26PM

listermint wrote: »

I assume he is referring to workplace ergonomics guidelines for businesses you might assume by the name guidelines that they are guidelines and you would be correct too.

Add it to the long list of EU misinformation published by UK tabloids. Most of these regulations supposedly forced on the UK have been shown to be absolute guff but it suits the pro Brexit/anti EU narrative.

Zubeneschamali · 18-03-2018 06:45PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What they fail to understand is that nobody in Brussels is going to care one whit about nonsense like this.

Like all the noises coming from May, her Government and the Brexiteers, they do not care one bit what anyone in Brussels thinks. This sort of thing is entirely for the domestic market, make a splash in the right wing press, job done.

Capt'n Midnight · 18-03-2018 07:31PM

Without certainty about what sort of Brexit the insurance companies will either have to swallow or pass on possible future costs.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43434085

It's only two weeks until the annual policies insurers sell will need to provide cover beyond Brexit day, the 29 March next year.
...
They could start warning motor policyholders that they will need a Green Card - an international document proving you have insurance - when they drive their cars into the EU after Brexit.

And if travellers can't depend on their European Health Insurance Cover (EHIC) cards, which entitle them to medical treatment across the EU, the price of travel insurance will be affected.

Sam Russell · 18-03-2018 07:39PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Without certainty about what sort of Brexit the insurance companies will either have to swallow or pass on possible future costs.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43434085

Can they be sure that their driving licences will be valid if a hard hard Brexit is triggered?

Trade wars have no winners, only losers and collateral damage, most of which is unexpected and unforeseen.

Nody · 18-03-2018 07:52PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Can they be sure that their driving licences will be valid if a hard hard Brexit is triggered?

Trade wars have no winners, only losers and collateral damage, most of which is unexpected and unforeseen.

They can simply change (if not already done) to have the clause state that you need a valid driving license in the EU country you're driving or something to that effect. That future proofs the contractual text and gives them the wiggle room required for either scenario.

Jim2007 · 18-03-2018 07:55PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

There is no requirement to treat non-citizens from other EU states the same as the natives unless they have already acquired rights of permanent residence.

There is in the case of the UK because of the type of benefits offered. Most EU states apply the rules correctly, but then they don't offer in place benefits it the manner that the UK does.

trellheim · 18-03-2018 08:42PM

Doesnt the UK pay Spain for health treatment for expats in residence

Sam Russell · 18-03-2018 09:22PM

trellheim wrote: »

Doesnt the UK pay Spain for health treatment for expats in residence

If the E111 card is used, the EU citizens all pay the local rate and the EU country that provides the service charges the full cost back to the EU citizens own health authority less the local charge.

The UK fail to charge back in most instances because they do not have a charging system in place. Most EU countries do.

demfad · 18-03-2018 10:25PM

Reminder: Cambridge Analytica in the news today were potentially involved in ALL 5 leave campaigns. They are now Kryptonite for anyone who touched them. They are scrambling to stop a devastating expose airing on C4 this week. The stories on the observer/guardian site on this weeks revelations include the news that Kogan (who stole the 50 million FB profiles) was contracted to a St Petersburg college and CA visited a Russian oil company tied to Putin. Brexit and Trumps election were the same operation. Brexit needs a large external jolt for it to change course. This may be the sign that it's coming.

First Up · 18-03-2018 10:54PM

demfad wrote: »

Reminder: Cambridge Analytica in the news today were potentially involved in ALL 5 leave campaigns. They are now Kryptonite for anyone who touched them. They are scrambling to stop a devastating expose airing on C4 this week. The stories on the observer/guardian site on this weeks revelations include the news that Kogan (who stole the 50 million FB profiles) was contracted to a St Petersburg college and CA visited a Russian oil company tied to Putin. Brexit and Trumps election were the same operation. Brexit needs a large external jolt for it to change course. This may be the sign that it's coming.

I suppose its possible that revelations of how the Brexit campaign was manipulated could galvanise the UK parliament to halt this lunacy but can you see that happening?

demfad · 19-03-2018 12:02AM

First Up wrote: »

I suppose its possible that revelations of how the Brexit campaign was manipulated could galvanise the UK parliament to halt this lunacy but can you see that happening?

The extra bile/immediate blame apportioning with the Russian poisoning must be related to the attack on their democratic process in the EURef by Russia.
If the Cambridge Analytica story opens the can of worms or if another big event happens e.g. The indictment of a Brexit figure by Mueller then that could force ref2.
The potential can of worms with CA is who in official
Vote leave dealt with them, what did they know etc. Etc.
Remember even the DUP paid AggregateIQ (sister company) money.
This is only going to get worse not better.

ancapailldorcha · 19-03-2018 09:02AM

It looks like control of fisheries will remain in the hands of the EU:

Plans to take back control of UK fisheries the moment Britain leaves the EU appear to have been abandoned in the face of united EU opposition, dealing a significant blow to the ambitions of the environment secretary, Michael Gove.

Gove put repatriating control of fisheries at the heart of his post-Brexit strategy. But as the negotiations to secure the terms of a transition deal go to the wire in Brussels, the UK has backed down.

This wasn't a small part of the leave campaign with Gove himself invoking his adopted father whose business he alleged was destroyed by quotas. There are probably larger concerns at the moment but it will be interesting to see if pro-Brexit newspapers make hay with this.

First Up · 19-03-2018 09:11AM

demfad wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

I suppose its possible that revelations of how the Brexit campaign was manipulated could galvanise the UK parliament to halt this lunacy but can you see that happening?

The extra bile/immediate blame apportioning with the Russian poisoning must be related to the attack on their democratic process in the EURef by Russia.
If the Cambridge Analytica story opens the can of worms or if another big event happens e.g. The indictment of a Brexit figure by Mueller then that could force ref2.
The potential can of worms with CA is who in official
Vote leave dealt with them, what did they know etc. Etc.
Remember even the DUP paid AggregateIQ (sister company) money.
This is only going to get worse not better.

Depends what you mean by "force" another referendum. The only authority that can intervene to do that is parliament. It would need enough MPs of whatever party to agree - and in effect cause the disintegration of the Tories (for sure) and probably Labour.

I don't think there is enough MPs with the conviction and courage to put the country before their seat, or abandon their party system.

Peregrinus · 19-03-2018 09:14AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It looks like control of fisheries will remain in the hands of the EU:

This wasn't a small part of the leave campaign with Gove himself invoking his adopted father whose business he alleged was destroyed by quotas. There are probably larger concerns at the moment but it will be interesting to see if pro-Brexit newspapers make hay with this.

Just to clarify, SFAIK the issue is whether the UK will take control of its fisheries from Brexit day or whether the EU will retain control of them during the transitional period. If the UK has climbed down, it will likely be only to a position whereby they accept that control of fisheries will only pass at the end of the transitional period, and not at the beginning.

In the long term, the EU and the UK still need a fisheries agreement. Most fish caught by the UK fleet is landed at non-UK ports, and sold to non-UK consumers, while most of the fish landed in the UK and eaten by UK consumers is caught by non-UK boats. (The UK market has quite different tastes from the continentals.) It'll be very disruptive for both fleets and the associated industries if this can't continue. Plus, both sides have a common interest in ensuring prudent conservation of fish stocks, which for obvious reasons can only be done collaboratively. All that, though, is a matter for the post-Brexit UK/EU trade deal, not for the Withdrawal Agreeement.

Peregrinus · 19-03-2018 09:16AM

First Up wrote: »

Depends what you mean by "force" another referendum. The only authority that can intervene to do that is parliament. It would need enough MPs of whatever party to agree - and in effect cause the disintegration of the Tories (for sure) and probably Labour.

I don't think there is enough MPs with the conviction and courage to put the country before their seat, or abandon their party system.

There is not. This can only happen if one of the major parties changes its position and backs a second referendum, and the other is sufficiently divided that they are unable to prevent it.

Realistically, I do not see this happening. Brexit will proceed.

Brexit discussion thread III

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