Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

Nika Bolokov · 16-03-2018 08:58AM

grindle wrote: »

Some ICO dev I talk to reckons BTC will hit $3k-$4k and ETH $300-$400 over coming months.

It's all guessing though, trying to spot patterns in something this young and volatile is shaky.

The hundreds for BTC is probably more likely for a while anyway if the post Decemeber buyers realise it's not a road to riches and the losses start to hurt.

There were posters on here saying at the time they were investing 10 grand etc .....

Bob24 · 16-03-2018 09:36AM

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Is anyone buying now ? Or shud wait...

Buying during a fairly extended downwards phase is probably not the best idea as there is no visibility on how much further down it can go.

The best move would be to buy as soon as you think a clear upwards phase has been initiated. But it’s not rocket science and there will always be a risk to get it wrong (it could recover for a day or two and start dipping again).

grindle · 16-03-2018 09:54AM

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

The hundreds for BTC is probably more likely for a while anyway if the post Decemeber buyers realise it's not a road to riches and the losses start to hurt.

There were posters on here saying at the time they were investing 10 grand etc .....

Sub $1k BTC? 95% drop from ATH - I dunno, seems unrealistic to me. Media has become largely positive about everything, subreddits are still busy and a rake of ICOs have projects lifting off this year, plus they have huge marketing funds. Once a lot of those dev team's vested funds get released they'll likely be piling a portion of their profits back into ETH and BTC.

It'll be an interesting thing to look back on anyway. More data to incorrectly apply to future events. :cool:

h0neybadger · 16-03-2018 03:12PM

Anything under $4,000 for BTC will be severely problematic considering the difficulty in mining.

Only a very small handful of countries can run miners cheap enough that miners will break even at $4,000 per BTC

https://ibb.co/eWBnAH

smacl · 16-03-2018 03:31PM

h0neybadger wrote: »

Anything under $3,000 for BTC will be severely problematic considering the difficulty in mining.

Only a very small handful of countries can run miners cheap enough that miners will break even at $3,000 per BTC

h0neybadger wrote: »

Anything under $4,000 for BTC will be severely problematic considering the difficulty in mining.

Only a very small handful of countries can run miners cheap enough that miners will break even at $4,000 per BTC

https://ibb.co/eWBnAH

That was some price jump in 2 minutes

Tinder Surprise · 16-03-2018 03:32PM

h0neybadger wrote: »

Anything under $4,000 for BTC will be severely problematic considering the difficulty in mining.

Only a very small handful of countries can run miners cheap enough that miners will break even at $4,000 per BTC

https://ibb.co/eWBnAH

Hope you dont mind me asking....what are you currently mining at the moment?

h0neybadger · 16-03-2018 03:40PM

smacl wrote: »

That was some price jump in 2 minutes

When I posted it originally, I tried to attach a pic

but it was too large.
When I opened it, I realised 3k still rules out almost every country except Venezuela!
So I up it to 4K

h0neybadger · 16-03-2018 03:42PM

Tinder Surprise wrote: »

Hope you dont mind me asking....what are you currently mining at the moment?

$3,133 per BTC.

drunkmonkey · 16-03-2018 04:48PM

h0neybadger wrote: »

When I posted it originally, I tried to attach a pic but it was too large.
When I opened it, I realised 3k still rules out almost every country except Venezuela!
So I up it to 4K

That all depends on how large an operation and what way your mining.

PopePalpatine · 16-03-2018 05:29PM

I suppose Venezuela has the distinct advantage over other oil-dependent countries of not hitting the high 40s for half the year.

Tinder Surprise · 16-03-2018 05:33PM

Surprised not to see Iceland higher up the list tbh

aint they attracting lots of mining farms due to their climate and cheap renewable energy?

Nika Bolokov · 17-03-2018 09:18PM

grindle wrote: »

Sub $1k BTC? 95% drop from ATH - I dunno, seems unrealistic to me. Media has become largely positive about everything, subreddits are still busy and a rake of ICOs have projects lifting off this year, plus they have huge marketing funds. Once a lot of those dev team's vested funds get released they'll likely be piling a portion of their profits back into ETH and BTC.

It'll be an interesting thing to look back on anyway. More data to incorrectly apply to future events. :cool:

It is very hard to know but today again there seems to be more major negative moves down.

Only time will tell !!

Bob24 · 17-03-2018 10:13PM

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

grindle wrote: »

Sub $1k BTC? 95% drop from ATH - I dunno, seems unrealistic to me. Media has become largely positive about everything, subreddits are still busy and a rake of ICOs have projects lifting off this year, plus they have huge marketing funds. Once a lot of those dev team's vested funds get released they'll likely be piling a portion of their profits back into ETH and BTC.

It'll be an interesting thing to look back on anyway. More data to incorrectly apply to future events. :cool:

It is very hard to know but today again there seems to be more major negative moves down.

Only time will tell !!

Hard to predict indeed, but it's not looking good. 2-3 more days like this and it will reach the early Feb bottom again. If it goes past that I'll see it as a very bad signal for the coming months ...

lifeandtimes · 17-03-2018 10:49PM

Newton's third law is: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction

The highs of Nov,Dec and Jan haven't balanced out yet so there will be more of this for a while.

I fully believe the market will stabilise and begin a bull run again but only time will tell

Blacktie. · 17-03-2018 10:52PM

The crypto markets aren't the laws of physics.

lifeandtimes · 18-03-2018 10:35AM

Blacktie. wrote: »

The crypto markets aren't the laws of physics.

The laws of physics apply to everything

What happened in the world outside of crytpos (regulations, banning, promotion, integration) all have an effect on cryptos.

The fear of panic buying or selling doesn't come from nowhere and as such Newtons 3rd law applies in 1 way or another

Blacktie. · 18-03-2018 11:06AM

lifeandtimes wrote:

The laws of physics apply to everything

I'm not even gonna bother.

ignorance is strength · 18-03-2018 11:15AM

lifeandtimes wrote: »

The laws of physics apply to everything

What happened in the world outside of crytpos (regulations, banning, promotion, integration) all have an effect on cryptos.

The fear of panic buying or selling doesn't come from nowhere and as such Newtons 3rd law applies in 1 way or another

But not any law you chose!! Applying casual physics knowledge to crypto currency markets is part of the reason for the bubble. Let this be the “When my shoeshine boy was giving me stock tips, I knew it was time to sell” moment.

Arrival · 18-03-2018 11:28AM

So who's prepared to ride this crash out for possibly a year or more? Obviously not saying this is how long it could be for sure, but it's happened before and it's interesting to think about people's willingness to hold for so long during a decent sized dip. I think we haven't reached full on despair yet.

I bought my BTC and ETH with the expectation to hold it for at least 4-5 years minimum no matter what lows it went to during crashes in those years so I keep reminding myself of that while checking the prices a lot less. Ethereum will surely have big news this year though that'll hopefully impact the price of ETH and maybe even cause the flippening many people are anticipating, and that would very interesting to see what happens to the price of BTC because it's not like the fundamentals of BTC will have changed by then and it may even have more scaling solutions by then so hopefully it'll basically just result in the two being entirely independent from each other growth wise

Elessar · 18-03-2018 11:49AM

Arrival wrote: »

So who's prepared to ride this crash out for possibly a year or more? Obviously not saying this is how long it could be for sure, but it's happened before and it's interesting to think about people's willingness to hold for so long during a decent sized dip. I think we haven't reached full on despair yet.

I bought my BTC and ETH with the expectation to hold it for at least 4-5 years minimum no matter what lows it went to during crashes in those years so I keep reminding myself of that while checking the prices a lot less. Ethereum will surely have big news this year though that'll hopefully impact the price of ETH and maybe even cause the flippening many people are anticipating, and that would very interesting to see what happens to the price of BTC because it's not like the fundamentals of BTC will have changed by then and it may even have more scaling solutions by then so hopefully it'll basically just result in the two being entirely independent from each other growth wise

Yep, gonna ride it out. If you think about it, those who got rich off bitcoin wouldn't have been if they sold at every other crash. Not saying anyone here will be rich but food for thought. I'm still positive for the crypto market overall, it seems to happen in cycles, bull, bear, bull but the overall trend has been growth. Just a case of how long until positive sentiment returns. Bitcoin is a big issue though - most alts are paired to it and it singlehandedly defines the market. It needs to be decoupled and there is at least one exchange launching this year which will have direct fiat/alt pairs and bank transfers I'm hoping will accelerate this (which coincidentally I've put 50% of my portfolio into!).

ligerdub · 18-03-2018 11:58AM

lifeandtimes wrote:

Newton's third law is: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction

The highs of Nov,Dec and Jan haven't balanced out yet so there will be more of this for a while.

I fully believe the market will stabilise and begin a bull run again but only time will tell

Ironic you used Newton as a reference, a man who lost his arse investing in the South Sea Company, one of the biggest bubbles to burst in the history of financial markets. That didn't shoot back up either.

Cally Caleigh · 18-03-2018 12:35PM

It's just the usual volatility inherent to all cryptocurrencies.
Nothing fundamental to the technology or it's potential has changed in the last 2 months.
Google banning of cryptocurrency advertisements (which were mostly ICO scams anyway), and the mt.gox lawyer possibly dumping a load more bitcoins onto the market in the future has put the fear into people.
As Baron Rothschild said in the 18th century:
"the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

JohnnyFlash · 18-03-2018 12:40PM

ligerdub wrote: »

Ironic you used Newton as a reference, a man who lost his arse investing in the South Sea Company, one of the biggest bubbles to burst in the history of financial markets. That didn't shoot back up either.

The cryptocurrency bubble is of an order of magnitude greater than the South Sea bubble, the Dutch Tulip mania, or the Japanese housing bubble as well. It’s fairly unprecedented.

grindle · 18-03-2018 01:52PM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

The cryptocurrency bubble is of an order of magnitude greater than the South Sea bubble, the Dutch Tulip mania, or the Japanese housing bubble as well. It’s fairly unprecedented.

Greater in terms of the speed of the rise & the angle of the chart over a short timeframe, not greater in terms of value lost if it gets sent to zero. Yet.

It's still a very small market.

drunkmonkey · 18-03-2018 01:57PM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

The cryptocurrency bubble is of an order of magnitude greater than the South Sea bubble, the Dutch Tulip mania, or the Japanese housing bubble as well. It’s fairly unprecedented.

All bubbles burst, there a tiny fraction compared to the ones that succeed. You’ve named 3 from the last 400 years.
Here’s the funny thing, The Dutch still export billions of tulips every year, ships still sail and the Japanese still buy houses.

I wouldn’t write off the bitcoin and if your calling it a bubble it’s already burst as most bubbles aren’t noticed until afterwards.

Bob24 · 18-03-2018 02:15PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

if your calling it a bubble it’s already burst as most bubbles aren’t noticed until afterwards.

True that most people will only notice a bubble after it starts bursting. But it doesn’t mean that when it gets noticed it is done bursting. See the Irish property bubble as an exemple. By 2009 most people would have recognised there was a bubble, but it took another few years to have clarity on the extend of the correction and be able to say the bubble was done bursting (and to be honest in 2009 no one could have accurately predicted how much longer it would take and how low prices would go).

TanyGray · 18-03-2018 02:23PM

I put 2.5k into but coin just over 3 years ago.
It was just after a huge tumble in the value that I bought it.
Sold half of it for a nice few quid just after Christmas since it was in the news so much and had gone up. I wonder should I sell what's left, since it's still a nice profit or just leave it and forget it for another 3 years or so. Decisions.

But as with any investment, everybody is an expert. Tbh I believe that nobody knows the future and I just buy and forget. I did the same with property and thought I'd really fked up, but it turns out I didn't. Its all just a time game.

drunkmonkey · 18-03-2018 02:24PM

Bob24 wrote: »

True that most people will only notice a bubble after it starts bursting. But it doesn’t mean that when it gets noticed it is done bursting. See the Irish property bubble as an exemple. By 2009 most people would have recognised there was a bubble, but it took another few years to have clarity on the extend of the correction and be able to say the bubble was done bursting (and to be honest in 2009 no one could have accurately predicted how much longer it would take and how low prices would go).

Yes and it became to expensive to build houses, much like bitcoin, it has a bottom where it no longer becomes feasible for anyone to make bitcoins, I put that figure of a rock bottom of about $2000 a coin.
What happens when no more start coming online much like housing, price goes up.
Digital currency is the way forward but it’s got a long way to go. The bubble if it is a bubble hasn’t even started.

HerrKuehn · 18-03-2018 02:28PM

Stop selling you idiots! arrggh

Bob24 · 18-03-2018 04:50PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Yes and it became to expensive to build houses, much like bitcoin, it has a bottom where it no longer becomes feasible for anyone to make bitcoins, I put that figure of a rock bottom of about $2000 a coin.
What happens when no more start coming online much like housing, price goes up.
Digital currency is the way forward but it’s got a long way to go. The bubble if it is a bubble hasn’t even started.

The difference is that everyone needs a home so demand is guaranteed at a minimum level defined by the current population. Not everyone needs bitcoins.

Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

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