Do you think property will crash again?

Idbatterim wrote: »

the commutes are a joke and you would question the savings if they were using an ICE car, but with electric. The cost of the commute, will be virtually nothing...

don't forget also you are adding ten maybe twenty hours to your working week by commuting....not sure many people want to do that anymore.

Weepsie wrote: »

Not sure everyone getting a motorbike will help either.

Yes based experience in other European cities, if too many people start commuting from far away requiring their own vehicle, it then leads to traffic gridlock and air/noise pollution in the city ... and the long term effect is for municipal authorities to find direct or indirect ways to force those vehicles away from the city. Which is good for city residents but a huge pain for these commuters who then have to endure both a commute with their car/motorbike to reach the edge of the city’s public transport network *and* a commute on than network (very time consuming and expensive).

Cally Caleigh wrote: »

Scary to think what would happen house prices if those rules are relaxed over the coming years.

Indeed. I am actually not fully sure how to explain it tbh.

CruelCoin wrote: »

The best way to determine the minimum value of a home is to work out its build cost.
The last three years only returned us to the build cost and the true minimum value.
We've only had real growth in prices in the last year or so (outside of dublin at least).

Your logic is flawed as an example if someone built a mansion in the back arse of Leitrim and then built the exact same structure up on of a hill there in Killiney would they cost the same to buy????

smurgen wrote: »

Cheaper rental.i don't think you're open to discussion.irrational championing of property.

Ok well go and ask your landlord to drop your rent and tell me how that pans out for you?

fliball123 wrote:

Once again can you supply any evidence of this or is this just your gut talking?

I'd actually agree with their statement, I suspect we have become to believe things such as 'credit crisis' can be the only triggers of a crash in housing prices, we are leading ourselves to believe that we have more or less solved these type of issues, but we actually have no proof of this. Again I do believe our next housing price crash will be more so due to 'external' factors compared to previous crashes. If this is correct, we probably should be preparing for this future crash now, but we don't seem to be doing that very well, if at all. This has the potential to be catastrophic for us all in relation to housing.

Zenify wrote: »

Is it possible to add a poll to this thread?

Or dynamite

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I'd actually agree with their statement, I suspect we have become to believe things such as 'credit crisis' can be the only triggers of a crash in housing prices, we are leading ourselves to believe that we have more or less solved these type of issues, but we actually have no proof of this. Again I do believe our next housing price crash will be more so due to 'external' factors compared to previous crashes. If this is correct, we probably should be preparing for this future crash now, but we don't seem to be doing that very well, if at all. This has the potential to be catastrophic for us all in relation to housing.

There are people who are wise after the event. Before the Great Crash "the fundamentals are sound", "the banks are well capitalised" "morgan kelly is an idiot", Its different this time, were phrase which were repeated constantly. After the crash, "it was the banks", "what was the regulator doing", "why didn't anyone listen to Morgan Kelly" were all phrases heard from the very same people. When interest rates rise, which they inevitably will, the howls will be deafening.

Percy Judd wrote: »

Why will interest rates rise, and by how much %? People have been predicting interest rate hikes for a decade now and it never materialized.
Even if they do, I doubt it will 'crash' property. That would cause prices to fall alright, but a crash like 2008? Not a chance.

The ECB rate is 0%,it can't get any lower, there is only one direction it can move. It will eventually move, so that is why people are rightly predicting interest rates to rise.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Just last week the European Central Bank took further steps to unwind it's bond purchasing programme that has been in place since the financial crisis. Interest rate rises are inevitable, and the ECB has been signalling that rate increases are on the way from 2019 onwards.

That's not to say some unforeseen economic events will occur which torpedo the ECB's timeline, but as it stands they are on course for gradual rate increases from next year onwards.

Gradual base rate increases, like the ECB are accustomed to (0.25% for example) in order to avoid shocking the system would (slowly) put pressure on existing mortgage holders and restrict new borrowers/first time buyers limiting what they can borrow. This would impact house prices here alright but I can't see that alone triggering a 'crash' in the sense of the word. Unless the political will for repossessions develops, the government and banks will do everything to keep people with mortgage difficulty in their homes. Any political party that starts evicting people en masse from their homes would be thrown out of government. This could actually distort the market further by limiting supply even more.

Higher interest rates are not going to cause a property crash in my view - it will take job losses as a result of a future recession and/or a massive supply glut.