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Cold Spell Late Feb/ Early March Technical Discussion only MOD NOTE POST #1

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    #1292
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,675 ✭✭✭Rougies


    NAGDEFI wrote: »
    Would my area be subject to orographic lift? 340m asl south Laois?

    Depends on your local topography. Orographic lift happens on windward slopes of mountains.


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    #1293
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,072 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Khalid Millions Grouch wrote: »
    Evelyn Cusack just said One Meter of snow for Dublin/Wicklow followed by flooding
    Didn't think of that? People living along the Barrow, Nore and Slaney will be anxious. Of course that depends on a rapid thaw which happened in 1947 after southwesterly gales and heavy rain brought that winter to a sudden end around the middle of March.


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    #1294
    NAGDEFI
    Closed Accounts Posts: 755 ✭✭✭NAGDEFI


    Rougies wrote: »
    Depends on your local topography. Orographic lift happens on windward slopes of mountains.

    Thanks Rougies. With a south easterly that's a yes.

    I'm also conscious of what Gaoth spoke about earlier, counties to the West of the Wicklow mountains being in a kind of snow shadow.

    Evelyn and a metre of snow, Wicklow mts and South Dublin. My God these are historic days!!


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    #1295
    Calibos
    Registered Users Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Forget about whether it will turn to rain tomorrow on the south coast. Can anyone explain why reports are starting to come in from some boardies that rain is falling. Cobh in Cork and Walkinstown in Dublin are two examples?


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    #1296
    NAGDEFI
    Closed Accounts Posts: 755 ✭✭✭NAGDEFI


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    Didn't think of that? People living along the Barrow, Nore and Slaney will be anxious. Of course that depends on a rapid thaw which happened in 1947 after southwesterly gales and heavy rain brought that winter to a sudden end around the middle of March.

    Yes the St. Patrick's Day floods. Believe it or not some quarries at home facing northward had snow still there in June!!

    Looks like a slower melt this time..going by UKMO and ECM..


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    #1297
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Thank goodness! Temp dropping back in Dublin 16 now. -1.2c DP -2.5c atm.

    Moderate fine snow falling, which is accumulating on the ground, rather than on cars/roofs, due to the wind.

    I was only 10 in 1982 but I do remember noticing how little snow there was on roofs while at the same time we had 6 ft snow snow drifts (in Dublin 6).

    Good stuff. Appears to be a slight sleet/snow mix in Dundalk at the minute. I would also say that there is a very slight thaw ongoing of snow currently lying here.


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    #1298
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,692 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Calibos wrote: »
    Forget about whether it will turn to rain tomorrow on the south coast. Can anyone explain why reports are starting to come in from some boardies that rain is falling. Cobh in Cork and Walkinstown in Dublin are two examples?

    I am skeptical of that rain report in Dublin.

    By the way the ECM looks interesting in FI:D


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    #1299
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I am skeptical of that rain report in Dublin.

    By the way the ECM looks interesting in FI:D

    Its extremely light in D14 but as the poster above said, I also put my hands out and they got immediately wet.
    Could this still just be the warm front and it'll get colder again for the storm??


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    #1300
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Rain reports meaning a warm sector is over the east/Dublin maybe? Should it pass allowing colder conditions to return?


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    #1301
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    That's a very good update esp for places like Cork. The ecm was very good for 24hrs keeping us very cold


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    #1302
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,679 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    That's a very good update esp for places like Cork. The ecm was very good for 24hrs keeping us very cold

    One can hope. Besides the ECM were any of the other models predicting the south to stay in the cold and not have a thaw? I believe ICON was right?


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    #1303
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,692 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Its extremely light in D14 but as the poster above said, I also put my hands out and they got immediately wet.
    Could this still just be the warm front and it'll get colder again for the storm??

    Yes. Are you right by the coast? It could be a warm sector associated with the front, the wind direction may have helped to mix out the entrenched cold air from the east. Hopefully it passes on and it will turn to snow again.


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    #1304
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yes. Are you right by the coast? It could be a warm sector associated with the front, the wind direction may have helped to mix out the entrenched cold air from the east. Hopefully it passes on and it will turn to snow again.

    About 5 km from the coast in rathgar.. 65m asl

    Fingers crossed. I think some of the rain reports have actually been mistaken and its actually frozen tiny ice particles that melt on contact with skin and windows


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    #1305
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,692 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    wakka12 wrote: »
    About 5 km from the coast in rathgar.. 65m asl

    Fingers crossed. I think some of the rain reports have actually been mistaken and its actually frozen tiny ice particles that melt on contact with skin and windows

    That's puzzling, considering you are fairly high up and a bit away from the coast. Hopefully it will turn back to snow soon


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    #1306
    coillsaille
    Registered Users Posts: 533 ✭✭✭coillsaille


    From a technical and model perspective could somebody please explain why ME have brought forward the end of the red warning covering Connacht and northern counties to 6am while extending until 6pm the red warning for southern and eastern counties?


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    #1307
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,496 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    coillsaille wrote: »
    From a technical and model perspective could somebody please explain why ME have brought forward the end of the red warning covering Connacht and northern counties to 6am while extending until 6pm the red warning for southern and eastern counties?

    One or the other of them might be a typo .


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    #1308
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,072 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Rain reports meaning a warm sector is over the east/Dublin maybe? Should it pass allowing colder conditions to return?
    It did get up to -0.3c at 5.30 but thankfully its down to -0.8c now.


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    #1309
    Irish Steve
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    Khalid Millions Grouch wrote: »
    Evelyn Cusack just said One Meter of snow for Dublin/Wicklow followed by flooding

    Needs to be clarified that the flooding was discussed earlier in the day on the morning TV replacement programme, and it is a possible outcome of the combination of Spring Tides and Easterly winds, there's been no hint in the forecasts of a significant thaw due to rain, which would be a nightmare in some areas.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



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    #1310
    sean555
    Registered Users Posts: 196 ✭✭sean555


    coillsaille wrote: »
    From a technical and model perspective could somebody please explain why ME have brought forward the end of the red warning covering Connacht and northern counties to 6am while extending until 6pm the red warning for southern and eastern counties?
    I can see why they might for the Northwest [did that part of the country ever warrant a red?] but most of the models give Galway lots of snow tonight.


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    #1311
    Shane O' Malley
    Registered Users Posts: 1,373 ✭✭✭Shane O' Malley


    Irish Steve wrote: »
    Needs to be clarified that the flooding was discussed earlier in the day on the morning TV replacement programme, and it is a possible outcome of the combination of Spring Tides and Easterly winds, there's been no hint in the forecasts of a significant thaw due to rain, which would be a nightmare in some areas.


    Was that not related to some east facing slopes in Wicklow and dublin and due to snow drifting with particular wind?


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    #1312
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Could the rain reports be freezing rain or something?Idk. It would be absolutely galling to lose a once in a lifetime snow event by a fraction of a degree


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    #1313
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,909 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Its on the way lads and plenty of it. Heavy snow inbound to Cork.

    WTkjAtJ.gif

    beGHgBe.gif


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    #1314
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,838 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    I think it is more ice pellets, was just out in it (in Dublin 4) Dun Laoghaire dew point is easily low enough

    Edit: Can confirm it's larger and a lot more like snow now, snow going sideways though!

    443859.JPG


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    #1315
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Sat animation for the last 12hrs or so showing the development of 'Emma'.

    m7csaa.jpg

    Very unusual looking system. Almost looks like a balloon.

    New Moon



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    #1316
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Go to the animation on this page http://www.xcweather.co.uk/FR/observations

    Cycle through the pressure and temps. This has huge potential, warm air injecting of the north of Spain, cold air flooding in across Benelux. 975hPa in the centre over the bay of Biscay. Amazing.


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    #1317
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    What's falling here anyway seems like wet sleet on your face but it's actually very fine snow grains, which are the like the frozen form of drizzle. Formed because the upper layers (higher than 850 hPa) have warmed since yesterday, limiting convection to a fairly shallow layer.

    Warnings of heavy snow out now for the two Dublin airports and Cork. Don't remember seeing these before.

    EIDW AD WRNG 03 VALID 011800/020600 SNOW HVY > 10CM FCST =
    EIME AD WRNG 04 VALID 011800/020600 SNOW HVY > 10CM FCST =
    EICK AD WRNG 03 VALID 011700/020600 SNOW HVY > 10CM FCST =

    Shannon has a warning for 3-5 cm.


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    #1318
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Window had rain drops on it for the first time. Stuck the hand out the window and its the finest of graupel.

    Have yet to have big thick flakes from this event even tho I've a foot of snow out front!


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    #1319
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Hearing of outright blizzard conditions in Devon. These peripheral upper warm fronts are notorious for bringing freezing drizzle/rain, the real deal has yet to hit.

    New Moon



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    #1320
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    Window had rain drops on it for the first time. Stuck the hand out the window and its the finest of graupel.

    Have yet to have big thick flakes from this event even tho I've a foot of snow out front!
    It's been snowing continuously in Northside Dublin since 4 and often with bigger flakes. But shower activity is confined to the first 2000m or so of the atmosphere so they haven't got going yet. But thst graupel/snow grains still accumulates, especially with no sunlight and minus temperatures all the way to the stratosphere above us.


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    #1321
    jrd
    Registered Users Posts: 299 ✭✭jrd


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Hearing of outright blizzard conditions in Devon. These peripheral upper warm fronts are notorious for bringing freezing drizzle/rain, the real deal has yet to hit.

    http://www.camsecure.co.uk/Camsecure3/Brixham_Harbour.html

    This webcam from Brixham Harbour in Devon has a clear background to give a sense of what is happening there.


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