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Cold Spell Late Feb/ Early March Technical Discussion only MOD NOTE POST #1

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    #1052
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Streamer intensity in the air Irish Sea has decreased overnight, but coverage is still widespread and accumulations are 1 cm per hour at both Dublin and Casement airports. Casement is now at 22 cm at 6 am and Dublin 11 cm.

    Cork Airport is still 5 cm after no snow overnight.
    It seems in Dublin that the streamers have picked up steam (radar images from 4am Vs now), with this to continue for many more hours today.

    Odd to hear of little snow in mid/north, it was often perfectly positioned to get a pasting.


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    #1053
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Casement lost 2 cm of snow depth between 6 and 7 am (22 to 20 cm). Most likely blowing snow. There was no precip.


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    #1054
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users Posts: 15,210 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Phone is acting up so can't view the latest charts. How far north does Emma manage to get ? Does she still cover the majority of the east coast to Dublin


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    #1055
    SeaFields
    Registered Users Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭SeaFields


    I see Valentia station reporting -5 at 7am. As someone living near it, I can't recall it that low in years.


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    #1056
    AloKildare
    Registered Users Posts: 115 ✭✭AloKildare


    AloKildare wrote: »
    I'm interested to know what people's thoughts are, on the Wicklow shadow that often affects precipitation in Kildare? Will it affect precipitation here again tomorrow night seeing as winds are forecast ESE?

    Going on experience I'd reckon this will come into play tonight and tomorrow


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    #1057
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    The overnight runs of the Euro4 & HIRLAM didn’t seem to converge much as to the northernmost extent of this. Euro4 wants to leave out a fair bit of the east coast including Dublin, but the HIRLAM is more optimistic. On to the next runs I suppose.....


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    #1058
    tbayers
    Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭tbayers


    How reliable are rainfall radars ?? Pelting down now here in Tramore but the radar doesn't seem to equate to what we are seeing. Do they pick up rain a lot easier??

    Seriously worried about later now.


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    #1059
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    tbayers wrote: »
    How reliable are rainfall radars ?? Pelting down now here in Tramore but the radar doesn't seem to equate to what we are seeing. Do they pick up rain a lot easier??

    Seriously worried about later now.

    Tramore is the furthest away from both the Shannon and Dublin radars so can't "see" the lowest levels in your area, only higher up. As convection is so shallow now it's probably not seeing it at all.


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    #1060
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,355 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Dublin Airport :
    TAF EIDW 010500Z 0106/0206 08020KT 9999 FEW010 BKN025
    TEMPO 0106/0108 10025G35KT
    TEMPO 0106/0118 2000 -SHSNGS BKN008 BKN014CB
    PROB40
    TEMPO 0106/0112 0800 SHSN BKN004
    BECMG 0108/0110 08027KT
    TEMPO 0108/0118 08030G45KT
    BECMG 0118/0121 07030G46KT 1200 SN BKN008
    TEMPO 0121/0206 0300 +SN OVC002

    +SN!! Kicking off this evening properly.
    Light snow showers all day today with a possibility of moderate falls, with more organised snowfall from 6pm, possibly heavy.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #1061
    MeTheMan
    Registered Users Posts: 527 ✭✭✭MeTheMan


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Just flick through the different models on this chart and tell me how the northwestern half of the country should have a Red. The ECM ("EU") is the worst case scenario, but the high resolution show little or nothing there , e.g. the Euro4

    https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd/ireland/snow-depth/20180302-2100z.html

    Looking at the charts you could argue that Donegal could have stayed an orange warning, but snow showers are very localised and response team are scarce on the ground in rural areas. Currently heavy snow here in north-ish Leitrim and it's not showing on radar. The weather may only worsen as the day goes on and the risks of getting home becoming a problem. For the sake of Donegal I think a nation wide red warning is the best route.

    I have to add, so far I think met eireann have got it pretty spot on so far.


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    #1062
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,991 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Question: why isn't the east coast getting screwed out of this snow event like previous snow events with an onshore breeze? I'm guessing it's lower dew points? Uppers seem a bit lower too.


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    #1063
    Periscal
    Registered Users Posts: 105 ✭✭Periscal


    Even the very high resolution numerical models are having difficulty with localized precipitation rate, as an example yr.no, has my village - under 0mm this AM and earliest is 0.1mm at 12 o'clock, the reality is that we have moderate snow for over an hour now, pelting down no clearance from east looking out towards wicklow gap, the precipitation has stalled and we are primed for the main event later, when yr.no totals over 40mm between 1pm today and tomorrow night. that is on top of 25cm we have at the moment :)


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    #1064
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    SeaFields wrote: »
    I see Valentia station reporting -5 at 7am. As someone living near it, I can't recall it that low in years.

    Sherkin Island reported 'Ice Pellets' as precipitation during the night


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    #1065
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    There's a general downgrade in the overall intensity and northern extent of tomorrow's snowfall. Even the ECM now has it not getting north of a line Dublin-Galway and the higher-res models likewise. Dublin could miss out completely according to some of them, and a lower intensity elsewhere.

    I hope they're wrong and we do get the weather to justify the Red.


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    #1066
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    There's a general downgrade in the overall intensity and northern extent of tomorrow's snowfall. Even the ECM now has it not getting north of a line Dublin-Galway and the higher-res models likewise. Dublin could miss out completely according to some of them, and a lower intensity elsewhere.

    I hope they're wrong and we do get the weather to justify the Red.

    Yeah I noticed that on the Hirlam model. Still pretty bad down in Munster and I think it's very hard to predict just how heavy or north the precipitation will make it.


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    #1067
    kod87
    Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭kod87


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    There's a general downgrade in the overall intensity and northern extent of tomorrow's snowfall. Even the ECM now has it not getting north of a line Dublin-Galway and the higher-res models likewise. Dublin could miss out completely according to some of them, and a lower intensity elsewhere.

    I hope they're wrong and we do get the weather to justify the Red.

    Would be very embarrassing for met eireann if that happened, the country is basically on shutdown later today and tomorrow expecting blizzards, if people don't get that, then a lot of questions would be asked of met eireann.

    But I have huge sympathy for them, models having a lot of difficulty getting a grip on how storm emma interacts with this established cold over us. I owuld not like to be in met eireanns shoes trying to prdict this.


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    #1068
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,836 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    I hope they're wrong and we do get the weather to justify the Red.

    The fallout would be immense and ME may simply have to give up on warnings, or at least radically revise the warning system.

    On a separate but related note, I see UKMO has upgraded the SW UK to red warning.


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    #1069
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    HIRLAM currently still has all Munster/Leinster, parts of Connaught pelted tonight. Looks like Munster will get more snow Friday morning and showers along the east though


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    #1070
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users Posts: 15,210 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    cherryghost wrote: »
    HIRLAM currently still has all Munster/Leinster, parts of Connaught pelted tonight. Looks like Munster will get more snow Friday morning and showers along the east though

    Would you be able to post ? having issues accessing charts this morning myself


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    #1071
    ZeroSum76
    Registered Users Posts: 160 ✭✭ZeroSum76


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    I hope they're wrong and we do get the weather to justify the Red.

    The fallout would be immense and ME may simply have to give up on warnings, or at least radically revise the warning system.

    On a separate but related note, I see UKMO has upgraded the SW UK to red warning.
    Its possible areas which have not had snow may get sleet later tonight along the East coast. Quite a bizarre situation potentially with businesses shut down schools off and all that might fall may be rain/sleet.


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    #1072
    Brianmeath
    Registered Users Posts: 259 ✭✭Brianmeath


    I hope they're wrong and we do get the weather to justify the Red.[/quote]

    Going by my location in meath I believe it is more than justifed already. In 36 year I have never seen such weather. Fields are starting to green up now with so much snow drift. I believe they made a super call on this & all of ye. Let's see what the evening & night bring.
    On another note I did notice last night some people saying the streamers were done for the night & they were very wrong, but I run with MT forecast & he nailed it.
    If the red warning saves one life it's a great acchvement.
    Top job to all.


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    #1073
    ednwireland
    Registered Users Posts: 14,337 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    the forecasts so far have been spot on so far for sw donegal -5 last night but the lightest dusting of snow, dont think theres much forecast for tonight/tommorrow either.

    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



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    #1074
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Would you be able to post ? having issues accessing charts this morning myself

    Here you go:
    tempresult_atr9.gif


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    #1075
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,496 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    The fallout would be immense and ME may simply have to give up on warnings, or at least radically revise the warning system.

    On a separate but related note, I see UKMO has upgraded the SW UK to red warning.
    Definitely revise them.
    This has always been at the mercy of how far north Emma goes, us with a keen interest in the weather understand the fine lines but the general public less so.
    I find precipitation charts very unreliable even at close range. So let's keep faith in M.E. and M.T


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    #1076
    ThaitaniumM
    Registered Users Posts: 215 ✭✭ThaitaniumM


    The ECM still has uppers of -6 to -8 to Saturday noon across most of the country which is good enough for snow. Maybe a bit lower in the south coast where they could see freezing rain or ice pellets.


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    #1077
    asteroids over berlin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭asteroids over berlin


    kod87 wrote: »
    Would be very embarrassing for met eireann if that happened, the country is basically on shutdown later today and tomorrow expecting blizzards, if people don't get that, then a lot of questions would be asked of met eireann.

    But I have huge sympathy for them, models having a lot of difficulty getting a grip on how storm emma interacts with this established cold over us. I owuld not like to be in met eireanns shoes trying to prdict this.

    ME have more or less nailed it so far, , you cannot expect 100% accuracy, they only relay what they see - perhaps the next update will outline such circumstance. I imagine they have access to a significant amount of data that nobody else has access to. lay off them!


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    #1078
    john mayo 10
    Registered Users Posts: 956 ✭✭✭john mayo 10


    ME seem to think blizzards will head northwards affecting all areas tonight on their latest forecast


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    #1079
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Thing is less than 12 hours to event, all models still not agreeing on one single outcome!!


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    #1080
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Latest Harmonie going for 47mm of liquid city centre , 30mm north Dub, parts of West Dub / Kildare 60-70mm - through til midday Sat


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    #1081
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    The only thing that might save Met Éireann from being hung out to dry if this misses Dublin is the fact that there is and will continue to be more than 8cm justifying a red warning anyway. The national red seems to be more for public safety with people travelling to and from Leinster and Munster.

    The political fallout will be huge though. Ministers and Leo screaming at us to stay at home and warning of the worst snow since 1982, if half the population misses out they will be ridiculed for weeks (rightly or wrongly).

    Hopefully it does make it north and models and just struggling. If not, Cork people we expect pictures!

    Edit: From a Dublin / east coast perspective
    00Z GFS looks fine.
    HIRLAM looks good.
    Villain says Harmonie looks extremely good.
    Dublin TAF looks extremely good.
    WRF-MNM looks good.
    ARPEGE looks VERY heavy for Dublin in particular tomorrow morning, shows it breaking down in to rain and sleet, but it's been showing that all week.

    Not sure where all the negativity is coming from.


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