Brexit discussion thread III

embraer170 · 25-12-2017 11:29PM

Switzerland's President calls for referendum on EU relationship

http://www.dw.com/en/switzerlands-president-doris-leuthard-calls-for-referendum-on-eu-relationship/a-41923697

Leuthard said she understood Swiss suspicion towards the EU, but said there is no alternative to reaching an agreement with the bloc that generates about 66 percent of Swiss trade. "We can strengthen the cooperation with India and China, but the EU remains central," she said. "We need a mechanism and regulated relationship with the EU that would also prevent political games like we are having at the moment."

At least some sense, unlike what keeps coming out of the UK.

Nody · 26-12-2017 08:17AM

embraer170 wrote: »

At least some sense, unlike what keeps coming out of the UK.

I'll expect them to end up voting no though which will make things interesting (see the previous vote on Swiss priority for jobs which is still under review by EU even in it's watered down form).

First Up · 26-12-2017 09:07AM

Nody wrote: »

embraer170 wrote: »

At least some sense, unlike what keeps coming out of the UK.

I'll expect them to end up voting no though which will make things interesting (see the previous vote on Swiss priority for jobs which is still under review by EU even in it's watered down form).

Depends what they are voting on.

BKtje · 26-12-2017 10:35AM

I'd also expect a no vote (if voting on EU membership). Discussed the EU with my Swiss father in law recently including a lot if misconceptions that he had about it which I wanted to put right. He was genuinely interested and was an interesting debate after which he decided to go research it properly. I'd say he'd be similar to your average Swiss voter.

Like the UK there are a lot of mis understandings about the EU here and couple that with the strong sense of self that the Swiss have I'd really expect a fairly significant no vote.

joeysoap · 26-12-2017 12:24PM

Don’t think it’s about membership , more a new relationship, and how closely aligned Switzerland wants to be to the EU?

I have no doubt that because of the UK leaving the EU is going to tighten/adjust the rules a bit for clarity. Being a member has huge benefits that might not have been spelled out/understood clearly before, and now it’s up to the EU to start playing up the benefits of membership to the citizens of the EU.

Sam Russell · 26-12-2017 12:38PM

joeysoap wrote: »

Don’t think it’s about membership , more a new relationship, and how closely aligned Switzerland wants to be to the EU?

I have no doubt that because of the UK leaving the EU is going to tighten/adjust the rules a bit for clarity. Being a member has huge benefits that might not have been spelled out/understood clearly before, and now it’s up to the EU to start playing up the benefits of membership to the citizens of the EU.

I think the EU should start a 'What has the EU ever done for us?' type of promotion.

ECJ make decisions for the whole of the EU about sometimes niche concerns - for example the case of the footballer out of contract now negotiates for himself, strengthening his power to get a good deal. There are many examples.

The EU has on occasion fought for the consumer as in roaming charges - not always 100% but still better than before. The 'Open Skies' has brought us very cheap airline travel and broken the grip of flag carriers.

There are many many examples not shouted out by the EU, but should be.

They should also give more attention to explaining how the EU is structured and how it is supposed to work - particularly how they interpret 'democracy' and how they are tackling 'Democratic Deficit'. And explain 'Competency' and 'Subsidiarity' and how they affect the normal EU citizen.

It should all help to make the EU better.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-12-2017 01:16PM

The continual drip-drip feed of Brexit won't be a great deal.
If Turkey and Ukraine can get a similar deal then the EU can't be too worried about whatever cards the UK holds.

Brexit: German minister sees model for Turkey and Ukraine

Fred_Johnson · 26-12-2017 08:11PM

I have a feeling from listening to David Davis (God help me), that the one area the British are willing to compromise on is money. In other words, they are willing to pay a few billion per year in exchange for...something. The question is what. My fear, and I hope i'm wrong, is that the British and EU will come to a deal where the British pay a few billion a year in exchange for financial passporting. Because the British know how vital the sector is and the EU knows it needs access to London capital markets. This would be bad for Dublin as we'd lose out on all the recently announced Brexit movements from London. I know Barnier says that a pick and choose approach is impossible, but the EU may cave on this. Hopefully not but I can see it happening, not until late in the day at the last moment.

flaneur · 26-12-2017 08:38PM

I'm not sure the EU will cave. There's really no reason why they would feel they need to.

After the Eurozone experienced the financial crisis, there's been a trend towards wanting to consolidate and regulate the financial system much more, to ensure future stability.

Allowing the UK to act as a regulatory haven has always been an issue and I think this is really been a huge own goal for the British as the ECB will take it as an opportunity to bring a lot of stuff back into the Eurozone regulatory system.

Enzokk · 26-12-2017 09:06PM

Fred_Johnson wrote: »

I have a feeling from listening to David Davis (God help me), that the one area the British are willing to compromise on is money. In other words, they are willing to pay a few billion per year in exchange for...something. The question is what. My fear, and I hope i'm wrong, is that the British and EU will come to a deal where the British pay a few billion a year in exchange for financial passporting. Because the British know how vital the sector is and the EU knows it needs access to London capital markets. This would be bad for Dublin as we'd lose out on all the recently announced Brexit movements from London. I know Barnier says that a pick and choose approach is impossible, but the EU may cave on this. Hopefully not but I can see it happening, not until late in the day at the last moment.

Who knows what will be negotiated, but the problem for the UK is that any deal they negotiate as a third country will have an effect on other deals the EU has with other third countries. If the UK gets a sweetheart deal then other countries will want the same and once the precedent is set then the EU will have to give it as well. So that is why the only likely deal will be one that has already been negotiated and it will only be tweaked.

Jim2007 · 26-12-2017 09:22PM

Fred_Johnson wrote: »

My fear, and I hope i'm wrong, is that the British and EU will come to a deal where the British pay a few billion a year in exchange for financial passporting.

The reality is that the EU needs little or nothing from London! Most of the games played in London are not needed for a functioning market. Bond auctions will go on as before, but UK finance houses will need access to these markets if they are to stay in the game. Corporate financing can be done out of Frankfurt or NY as London will no longer have an advantage over NY and so on.

Finance is not like manufacturing, capabilities can be moved very quickly should the need arise.

On the other hand we can have a situation where a major Euro player is outside the jurisdiction of the ECJ, ECB etc... it would mean that some players could bet against the the Euro economy risk free etc...

I don’t see any possibility of the UK being granted the kind of access they have today without them fully accepting the role of the ECB, EBA, ECJ etc..

Fred_Johnson · 26-12-2017 09:59PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

I don’t see any possibility of the UK being granted the kind of access they have today without them fully accepting the role of the ECB, EBA, ECJ etc..

Thing is, I suspect the British may be willing to compromise, a lot, when it comes to the narrow area of financial services. They may allow ECB, EBA oversight etc and some sort of dispute resolution mechanism. Why wouldn't they? After all most financial regulations are global, and most of the EU regulations had a large British input anyway. The UK is already fully compliant, obviously.

The British may offer a few billion euros and allow their financial industry to be overseen just as it is now by European institutions. It's an offer like that which may be tempting to exhausted EU negotiators at the last minute.

Water John · 26-12-2017 10:25PM

Ah, but would they allow a transaction tax?

CelticRambler · 26-12-2017 10:32PM

I can't see any circumstances in which the EU will allow the UK to benefit from a concession that the EU is not prepared to make to Switzerland, with whom they at least have a stable relationship and several areas of agreement/alignment. Most Swiss financial passporting is done through London: why would the EU make a gift of that to the troublesome child while denying it to the sensible one?

Fred_Johnson · 26-12-2017 11:06PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

I can't see any circumstances in which the EU will allow the UK to benefit from a concession that the EU is not prepared to make to Switzerland, with whom they at least have a stable relationship and several areas of agreement/alignment. Most Swiss financial passporting is done through London: why would the EU make a gift of that to the troublesome child while denying it to the sensible one?

The importance of London as a financial centre for the entire EU cannot be underestimated. This is not quite the same situation with Switzerland, although it is a major wealth management centre as well. Yes, people can be moved to the continent, but the eco-system within London cannot be replicated overnight elsewhere. Sure, New York banks could come in but that could take a long time to set up. My instinct tells me the EU may prefer to continue dealing with London, with some sort of regulatory control over its financial system. If there's one thing the EU absolutely adores, it's the status quo.

You may be right, who knows. I just don't trust the EU negotiators to not make concessions. Look at the last minute major concessions they made during the Greek bailout negotiations. I know it's a different team, but still.

murphaph · 26-12-2017 11:14PM

It's also political dynamite domestically for the Tories if they are seen to be throwing money at the City while the marginal seats in the more working class areas see manufacturing jobs lost. They are only in government because of these marginal seats.

Tell me how · 26-12-2017 11:17PM

Fred_Johnson wrote:

The importance of London as a financial centre for the entire EU cannot be underestimated. This is not quite the same situation with Switzerland, although it is a major wealth management centre as well. Yes, people can be moved to the continent, but the eco-system within London cannot be replicated overnight elsewhere. Sure, New York banks could come in but that could take a long time to set up. My instinct tells me the EU may prefer to continue dealing with London, with some sort of regulatory control over its financial system. If there's one thing the EU absolutely adores, it's the status quo.

As a previous poster said, moving financial operations is not that difficult.
It doesn't have to happen overnight, they've between now and March 2019 to do it.

There is no advantage in the EU looking like they need to go outside of it for such a practice as this.

Sam Russell · 26-12-2017 11:48PM

Tell me how wrote: »

As a previous poster said, moving financial operations is not that difficult.
It doesn't have to happen overnight, they've between now and March 2019 to do it.

There is no advantage in the EU looking like they need to go outside of it for such a practice as this.

There is likely to be a transition period of up to 2 years which gives time for the key operations to move. If the transition is basically continued EU membership but no seat at the table, that situation brings a certain time frame for the furniture vans to be ordered and the cardboard boxes lined up in the hall. If that is what is happening, there will be an orderly exit from London to Paris, Frankfurt and (hopefully) Dublin - Bankers and traders first.

Calina · 27-12-2017 11:08AM

Tbh it is naive to assume the EU negotiators are likely to capitulate to the UK given how thjngs have gone so far.

But I also would not expect much high value to travel to Dublin. As a city to live in it has very little to offer to wealthy people compared to Frankfurt, Paris or Amsterdam and in particular, infrastructurally, it is catastrophic.

Tell me how · 27-12-2017 11:16AM

Sam Russell wrote:

If that is what is happening, there will be an orderly exit from London to Paris, Frankfurt and (hopefully) Dublin - Bankers and traders first.

I hope our elected representatives remember this and don't try to bring down the government over something trivial which would show case some of our parish pump politics tendencies at a time when one of the things the EU will be looking for is government stability.

An Ciarraioch · 27-12-2017 04:06PM

Have we covered Clegg's knighthood?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/26/nick-clegg-to-be-knighted-in-new-year-honours

flaneur · 27-12-2017 04:20PM

Key facts being lost on the British media at the moment.

1. The EU and Eurozone in particular, needs financial services regulation and stability. It does not need chaos being caused by the UK or Switzerland operating as financial services havens, effectively adding risk to the Eurozone economies, removing control of regulatory bodies and also really behaving like a leech on their economy. So Brexit is a great opportunity to tame London and remove it from the equation entirely. It also takes a whole network of British tax havens out of the system too - Channel Islands, Isle of Man etc.

2. If the EU gives the UK a deal that grants it benefits of 'cake and eat it' level where it can undermine EU members' economically, then other countries would be effectively forced into positions where they would come under pressure to leave too. You can't really expect the EU to throw its own members under the bus for the sake of the UK, which is what a deal like that would do.

3. The further you get away from the UK, and Ireland is very much in the UK bubble, the less Brexit matters. Most of the continental press isn't even paying all that much attention to it. Things will move on. It's not a question of anyone wishing the UK any harm, but rather they just don't really care / pay that much attention or see this as an obstacle to get over and just get on with life afterwards.

4. The UK is causing the EU huge amounts of instability and risk at the moment by doing this. If Brexit doesn't happen cleanly, what's to say that this doesn't drag on for years, or even decades or repeat and you get Brexit 2.0 and then Brexit Part Three. There's enough to be getting on with without having that headache hanging around.

5. Aspects of the UK body politic and media political commentary has been incredibly aggressive towards the EU - to the point of calling for it to be disbanded, calling for all sorts of harm to be caused to the it and to the Eurozone. That has created a sense of just wanting to get away from the whole situation sooner rather than later.

The world doesn't revolve around Brexit! Patience is wearing thin and I think the British are only seeing this from their own perspective.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-12-2017 04:38PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Have we covered Clegg's knighthood?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/26/nick-clegg-to-be-knighted-in-new-year-honours

My understanding is that the govt can nix this, it's the Queen's decision. Clegg has been a bit too anti-brexit.
https://www.gov.uk/honours

Whether someone gets an honour - and the honour they get - is decided by an honours committee. The committee’s recommendations go to the Prime Minister and then to the Queen, who awards the honour.

Who makes the recommendation https://www.gov.uk/guidance/honours-committees#parliamentary-and-political-service

Tell me how · 27-12-2017 04:43PM

flaneur wrote:

The world doesn't revolve around Brexit! Patience is wearing thin and I think the British are only seeing this from their own perspective.

Not being smart, but that's pretty much been the message on this thread with 3 months.

I understand Brexit can't look attractive to other nations though as ultimately then we'd have more countries angling to leave and then the EU concept would really be in trouble.

I'd be curious on how to make it the best Brexit from an Irish perspective. I don't simply mean no border in the north but we do want to have as much trade as we can with the UK. It's not in our best interests to continually laugh at the UK God save the Queen viewpoints, ludicrous and all as they are.

Leroy42 · 27-12-2017 04:59PM

Tell me how wrote: »

It's not in our best interests to continually laugh at the UK God save the Queen viewpoints, ludicrous and all as they are.

I don't think anybody is laughing, I think the majority of posters get the need for the UK to remain strong and healthy. But they also see that it appears the the UK is currently basing its future, and ours, on nothing more that a few slogans and a few renditions of the Great Escape.

They appear utterly clueless, both in terms of what they actually want and how they can achieve it. Certainly none of our politicians have acted in the way IDS or the likes have when showing both contempt and ignorance of our situation (claiming on an interview that we were only playing tough on the border because of an upcoming presidential election!)

Simply look at the reaction to the passport colour announcement. Plenty of people claiming that it was taking back control, when they never lost that control.

I don't think people are laughing, but plenty of people of getting pretty exasperated trying to talk serious issues with people who have nothing but faith on which to base their opinion, but very quickly call out anybody who doesn't agree with them.

There isn't even an agreed outcome. What does Brexit mean? It can mean anything really. To anybody. EU has its 4 principles. UK cannot even agree on 1.

Strazdas · 27-12-2017 05:03PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't think anybody is laughing, I think the majority of posters get the need for the UK to remain strong and healthy. But they also see that it appears the the UK is currently basing its future, and ours, on nothing more that a few slogans and a few renditions of the Great Escape.

They appear utterly clueless, both in terms of what they actually want and how they can achieve it. Certainly none of our politicians have acted in the way IDS or the likes have when showing both contempt and ignorance of our situation (claiming on an interview that we were only playing tough on the border because of an upcoming presidential election!)

Simply look at the reaction to the passport colour announcement. Plenty of people claiming that it was taking back control, when they never lost that control.

I don't think people are laughing, but plenty of people of getting pretty exasperated trying to talk serious issues with people who have nothing but faith on which to base their opinion, but very quickly call out anybody who doesn't agree with them.

There isn't even an agreed outcome. What does Brexit mean? It can mean anything really. To anybody. EU has its 4 principles. UK cannot even agree on 1.

The thing is doomed to abject failure IMO. The public in their great wisdom voted to implement something that their government and parliament were opposed to and for which absolutely zero planning had been done. This can only end very badly.

flaneur · 27-12-2017 05:38PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Not being smart, but that's pretty much been the message on this thread with 3 months.

I understand Brexit can't look attractive to other nations though as ultimately then we'd have more countries angling to leave and then the EU concept would really be in trouble.

I'd be curious on how to make it the best Brexit from an Irish perspective. I don't simply mean no border in the north but we do want to have as much trade as we can with the UK. It's not in our best interests to continually laugh at the UK God save the Queen viewpoints, ludicrous and all as they are.

Realistically, the only least worst option that’s possible is the UK remaining in the customs union. If they don’t, you’re really looking at a major impact here.

It would actually be in Ireland (including Northern Ireland’s) best interest to derail Brexit entirely. I know we probably won’t as we are too polite to interfere in the debate, but that would be our best outcome.

If the DUP really had Northern Ireland’s long term economic and social interests at heart, they would pull the plug on this mess and let a general election roll on.

The Tories will probably not pay that promised £ billion or it will become some kind of fudge and you’ll find they NI economy suffers under austerity.

They’ve already voted against the Tories on a number of unpalatable issues and they’re not an economically right wing party - just in a time warp when it comes to social issues.

Also if the Tories push ahead with this, the prospect of a United Ireland is far more likely in the next decade or so. So if anything the DUP are going to end the status quo and usher in a period of potentially serious instability. They’re really risking the future of NI for the Tories ?! Are they that short sighted and naive ?

Capt'n Midnight · 27-12-2017 08:38PM

flaneur wrote: »

RSo if anything the DUP are going to end the status quo and usher in a period of potentially serious instability. They’re really risking the future of NI for the Tories ?! Are they that short sighted and naive ?

They've ignored everyone apart from their core vote for ages. And they will start to get frustrated if services aren't delivered because there's no Assembly.

Thing to remember about the Assembly is that they DUP can no longer veto stuff by suing a Petition of Concern.

The demographics are changing. There's immigrants in NI that couldn't care less about NI's historical baggage. There's moderate unionists too, many of whom voted against Brexit, others who don't subscribe to the DUP world view on social issues.

It's not a problem today, but the DUP can ignore it at their peril as it could be very important at the next election.

flaneur · 27-12-2017 09:54PM

I think rural NI and the business community will not forgive them if this goes very badly for Northern Ireland.

A few diehard loyalists may be going around with smug grins, but the rest of the population seem very happy with the status quo.

Ironically what the DUP are doing may well hasten the arrival of a United Ireland too!

Jim2007 · 27-12-2017 11:43PM

Fred_Johnson wrote: »

The importance of London as a financial centre for the entire EU cannot be underestimated.

If London cannot offer itself as the gateway to Europe, it has no advantage over NY or Singapore for anyone seeking access to either Euro bonds or European sources of finance. Going the opposite way again from outside the EU London cannot offer an easier way to access world financial markets over going to NY or Singapore. It will simply add another layer of complexity as a third country.

Brexit discussion thread III

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