Brexit discussion thread II

Peregrinus · 05-12-2017 03:49PM

David Davis seems to have bought into the Scottish Conservatives idea of regulatory alignment for the whole of the UK, on the basis that "regulatory alignment" doesn't mean the UK mirroring the EU rules; it means the UK adopting rules which produce outcomes that mirror the outcomes of the EU rules.

We could live with that.

Sethanon · 05-12-2017 03:52PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Growth has already been reduced by 0.4% over the ext five years. Analysis by economists has valued the cost of loss of GDP since the vote at around £20bn.

0.4% is a small hit to take over 5 years tbh. Leaving will always cause issues, but as I say it won't be England that suffers, it will push that onto the rest of the UK because it can.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Brexit admin costs already at £700m , with a further £3bn set aside.

3bn is small in the scheme of the UKs affairs, as a once of expenditure this is completely irrelevant to them. Considering they spend 800bn a year. 3 will not phase them

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is currently no works undertaken on building the expanding port facilities needed due to increased customs. I doubt any costs have been considered in terms of the NI border.

Realistically this is a non issue, easily resolved. Remember all main hubs in the UK have customs facilities as they actually have imports from outside of the EU!
I dont think the UK see the NI border as an issue, They will happily put it in the sea. A hard border on land is their last resort.

Leroy42 wrote: »

These are all either facts, or extrapolation based on facts. What you have is some anecdotal evidence.

There is still the likely fall off in trade with the EU as it is pretty evident that companies will opt for custom free goods rather than the hassle and potential holdups from the UK (not all of course but it will have some effect).

This is not the case at all, when it comes to goods, there is no delay in moving them through the EU. Only a tariff. As all UK companies already comply with the regulations and ISO they will have an even easier time moving products.
We do not have trade deals with most Asian countries yet we have their products here in abundance. its simply a tariff implied.

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is also the possibility of losing out some very high value COL jobs. The car manufacturers have also indicated that the costs of a customs regime will call into question their continued investment.

Some will be lost, but if they are it will be to cheaper non EU countries most likely. I deal with companies like Jaguar and Ford on a weekly basis and they will not leave. They will huff and puff until they convince the government to give them money, thats all they are after.
Simply put, the logistics of a car manufacturer are finely tuned and take years, they do not hold stock, items arrive constantly to be delivered directly to the live line. This is the logistical precision they use. The only way these companies would leave england is if the EU puts a massive tariff on UK exports. (which is unlikely for the car industry especially as they are lobbying hard in germany for a soft brexit. and car manufacturers have a massive pull, they are the forefront of all manufacturing advancement after all.)

So yeah its not going to be perfect at all. but England will be fine in the long run. its all of us on the fringe that will suffer because like it or not, we rely on those bollaxs

ancapailldorcha · 05-12-2017 03:57PM

Interesting piece in the Spectator arguing for a second referendum where the public choose between accepting Theresa May's deal, leaving on WTO terms or annulling the result of the 2016 referendum using the single transferable vote to indicate up to 2 preferences. The author argues for this on the basis that May is disappointing pro-Brexit Tories and pro-Remain Tories alike by leaving on a half-baked basis.

Sethanon · 05-12-2017 03:57PM

First Up wrote: »

Where does your company sit in the supply chain? Do you import components or operate a JIT manufacturing process? What delivery schedule do your EU customers require?

There is more to the SM than tarrifs.

We are system builders, we make the machines. so the jit is not relevant for us. Its our customers who worry about that.
As I say when it comes to moving items the tariff is the real barrier not the logistics. Especially when UK manufacturers already comply with all eu regulations.
But then that is the point of the tariff, to force non EU companies to be non competitive in pricing. Depending on the trade agreement the UK can be screwed or not. But I think they will get their trade agreement. Especially with the car manufacturers and big guns like P&G, Coty and Unilever lobbying for it

danganabu · 05-12-2017 04:00PM

Sethanon wrote: »

Destroying the UK? May wasn't the one who agreed to the referendum in the first place. And loosing NI would be a big benefit for the UK. it is a cash grubbling black hole.

As for the mainland UK. Honestly some rural areas might suffer compared to now but most of the UK will be fine if not excel from Brexit. Unlike our government the UK's actually does a ok job of looking after its people in general.
England will be fine after brecit and we are deluding ourselves to think otherwise (but then rte does pedal brexit doom as much as it can so no wonder we think it is bad for them too). Hell the company I work for has seen its profits go through the roof since brexit and the weaker sterling. The honest truth is brexit is bad for Ireland and will not have much affect on the UK in the long run. Our media is the one panicing because we are the ones who are fecked.

Sethanon wrote: »

Realistically this is a non issue, easily resolved. Remember all main hubs in the UK have customs facilities as they actually have imports from outside of the EU!

I really don't know whether to laugh or cry, this is the kind or insular, uninformed, short sighted, myopic viewpoint that gave us the comical referendum result in the first place.

solodeogloria · 05-12-2017 04:02PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

David Davis seems to have bought into the Scottish Conservatives idea of regulatory alignment for the whole of the UK, on the basis that "regulatory alignment" doesn't mean the UK mirroring the EU rules; it means the UK adopting rules which produce outcomes that mirror the outcomes of the EU rules.

We could live with that.

Good afternoon!

From the sounds of it it looks like mirroring rules rather than formal single market and customs union membership. This would be a similar approach to options mentioned in the Government's position paper.

If that's what they are proposing it isn't ideal but it is better than formal membership in terms of the freedoms gained.

It seems like freedom of movement wouldn't be required, nor would declining to do free trade deals with other countries but they would be constrained in areas where the UK is mirroring regulations.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

First Up · 05-12-2017 04:04PM

Sethanon wrote:

This is not the case at all, when it comes to goods, there is no delay in moving them through the EU. Only a tariff. As all UK companies already comply with the regulations and ISO they will have an even easier time moving products. We do not have trade deals with most Asian countries yet we have their products here in abundance. its simply a tariff implied.

Eh?
There is no tariff on goods moving within the SM, and no delays for inspection or paperwork. That will change after Brexit because even if they comply with standards, that will have to be checked every time. In effect, goods from the UK will join the queue at EU ports with goods coming from Asia and elsewhere.

The EU has trade "deals" with just about every Asian country and all imports are processed at pointnof entry to the EU, after which they move freely within the SM.

It affects some products and industries more than others but if your business operates in time-sensitive and complex supply chains, post-Brexit border delays are a potential disaster

ancapailldorcha · 05-12-2017 04:05PM

Sethanon wrote: »

We are system builders, we make the machines. so the jit is not relevant for us. Its our customers who worry about that.
As I say when it comes to moving items the tariff is the real barrier not the logistics. Especially when UK manufacturers already comply with all eu regulations.
But then that is the point of the tariff, to force non EU companies to be non competitive in pricing. Depending on the trade agreement the UK can be screwed or not. But I think they will get their trade agreement. Especially with the car manufacturers and big guns like P&G, Coty and Unilever lobbying for it

This seems unlikely to me. Many manufacturers in the UK operate on a just-in-time basis to save money which means that they keep the bare minimum of materials and components, shipping them in from the continent when needed. And then there is the question of the tens of thousands of lorries passing through places like Dover every day. The infrastructure simply is not there to check them. It seems to me that tariffs are just the tip of the iceberg.

ancapailldorcha · 05-12-2017 04:09PM

Mod: This thread is nearing the 10,000 post limit. We're preparing a new thread now. Please bear with us.

Brexit discussion thread II

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