Brexit discussion thread II

Jayop · 05-12-2017 10:37AM

Yeah pat. I can't help but feel that the DUP will lose support over this move. All but the hard line could see this was the solution and they are cutting off their nose (and the nose of everyone in Ireland) to spite their face.

ThisRegard · 05-12-2017 10:39AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

before anyone had signed on the dotted line,

But by all accounts the wording was signed off.

Chips Lovell · 05-12-2017 10:42AM

I was surprised they managed to (briefly) strike a deal yesterday. Beforehand, I thought it more likely than not there'd be "insufficient progress" again by the time of the December EU Council meeting.

I suspect the negotiating strategy was to do the deal and, when the DUP inevitably raised objections, quietly reassure it that there wouldn't be any regulatory divergence with the rest of the UK either. If that's the case, what they didn't bank on was an immediate and very public reaction from the DUP before they had a chance to butter them up.

Now May is left with the unenviable task of trying to stick it all back together again before December 14. It's important to bear in mind that the DUP could be overplaying their hand and may be reminded that they're unlikely to do any better with Prime Minister Corbyn at the helm.

Another option is outflanking the DUP and the lunatic fringe of Brexiteers by forming a government of national unity. However, I'd say Labour would extract a high price and while most Conservatives don't like the idea of a hard Brexit, the sense of crisis isn't pronounced enough yet for them to take such drastic action.

Anyway, it's all very entertaining to watch. Just when you thought it might get boring, with the UK government starting to accept reality, it kicks off again.

seamus · 05-12-2017 10:48AM

Sethanon wrote: »

Its stupidity beyond belief

But completely predictable.

Like you say, politicians in the North have been on the gravy train of the mainland for so long that they see nothing wrong with fighting for the union at all costs. This popped up yesterday from the TUV leader; different party, but they're two shades of the same sh1te: http://tuv.org.uk/no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal/

They would rather NI became a smoking hole in the ground so long as it remains in the UK. The motherland will provide, the UK will continue sending money, stand firm.

It's a really curious chain of events that's led us to this, with the potential for a really ironic ending. That the Unionists' blind loyalty may be their very undoing. Whatever happens next, the UK majority are going to become aware of this big money pit in NI, and the minority who were happy to completely burn down the UK economy out of adherence to an ideology.

Sethanon · 05-12-2017 10:59AM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

On the bolded section, if this is the case then is blocking this deal not political suicide for the DUP? If the deal would have been popular among DUP voters, obviously a majority of the unionist population at the moment, does this not give another unionist party a massive opening to swoop in as the "unionist but pro-deal" alternative?

Very risky move considering that another NI assembly election in the near future is a serious possibility...

To a degree yes, they will loose some fringe voters. But as I said in another post we are in a bubble here. It is more important to get one over on the other side than to benefit the north as a whole. (yes 2017 and that's still how it is).

DUP will still take most of the loyalist votes simply because they do look after their own and that's how people vote here. If people voted sensibly the likes of the SDLP and alliance would be in power... but our bubble doesn't allow that.

The NI assembly is political chess at the minute. Sinn Fein have the morale high ground on rights etc and were crushing the DUP until they got lucky with TM's general election feck up. Now the DUP have the power to not give in to the rights and language issues (these are a big deal to the extreme DUP voters) and Sinn Fein have the morale ground to hold out and hope brexit swings things back in their favour... which it did yesterday. Not having an executive in the north has been the most interesting political chess in years.

And while all this is happening the rest of the NI parties will stay out in the cold looking in because they don't have the pulling power to do anything other than make a few newspaper headlines.

Chips Lovell · 05-12-2017 11:00AM

One of the reasons I think it may go wrong for the DUP is that they seem a little too enamoured with the clout they now have. After decades in which they and the UUP felt relatively unloved by Westminster, they really appear to be relishing the fact that they have them by the short and curlies now.

murphaph · 05-12-2017 11:05AM

seamus wrote: »

But completely predictable.

Like you say, politicians in the North have been on the gravy train of the mainland for so long that they see nothing wrong with fighting for the union at all costs. This popped up yesterday from the TUV leader; different party, but they're two shades of the same sh1te: http://tuv.org.uk/no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal/

They would rather NI became a smoking hole in the ground so long as it remains in the UK. The motherland will provide, the UK will continue sending money, stand firm.

It's a really curious chain of events that's led us to this, with the potential for a really ironic ending. That the Unionists' blind loyalty may be their very undoing. Whatever happens next, the UK majority are going to become aware of this big money pit in NI, and the minority who were happy to completely burn down the UK economy out of adherence to an ideology.

I've been saying the same for weeks now. The spleen of the average English nationalist will vent harder than ever when they realise that this little rump of the UK that has been so troublesome and ungrateful actually costs around as much as the EU contribution every year. The DUP will deserve every bit of what comes their way. Shortsighted clowns of the highest order.

demfad · 05-12-2017 11:40AM

DUP is currently the trending topic amonst the Internet Research Agency (Olgino Troll factory) in St Petersburg.

Russian policy is a no-deal Brexit that would inflict maximum harm to EU (and UK obviously)

Infini · 05-12-2017 11:54AM

demfad wrote: »

DUP is currently the trending topic amonst the Internet Research Agency (Olgino Troll factory) in St Petersburg.

Russian policy is a no-deal Brexit that would inflict maximum harm to EU (and UK obviously)

IRA..... think those OTHER lads might wanna word with them about this!

kowtow · 05-12-2017 11:58AM

ThisRegard wrote: »

But by all accounts the wording was signed off.

The only thing which makes me thing it was a little bit less than signed off is that
it was still changing yesterday morning:

Tony Connelly‏Verified account
@tconnellyRTE
24h24 hours ago
More
The draft text on Ireland has since been updated to include the phrase "continued regulatory alignment" rather than "no regulatory divergence", acc to well-placed sources

Tony Connelly‏Verified account
@tconnellyRTE
24h24 hours ago
More
Acc to one version of EU-UK draft: “In the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be no divergence from those rules of the internal market + customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation +protection of the GFA.”

flaneur · 05-12-2017 12:09PM

demfad wrote: »

DUP is currently the trending topic amonst the Internet Research Agency (Olgino Troll factory) in St Petersburg.

Russian policy is a no-deal Brexit that would inflict maximum harm to EU (and UK obviously)

You can expect any opportunity to be exploited by those.

GalwayMark · 05-12-2017 12:22PM

flaneur wrote: »

You can expect any opportunity to be exploited by those.

I'd suspect we're heading for a showdown with the Kremlin's Thugs anytime soon diplomatically.

steddyeddy · 05-12-2017 12:31PM

So what's the chance of the UK staying in the customs union? In order to do that they can say goodbye to freedom of movement.

blanch152 · 05-12-2017 12:34PM

Sethanon wrote: »

To a degree yes, they will loose some fringe voters. But as I said in another post we are in a bubble here. It is more important to get one over on the other side than to benefit the north as a whole. (yes 2017 and that's still how it is).

DUP will still take most of the loyalist votes simply because they do look after their own and that's how people vote here. If people voted sensibly the likes of the SDLP and alliance would be in power... but our bubble doesn't allow that.

The NI assembly is political chess at the minute. Sinn Fein have the morale high ground on rights etc and were crushing the DUP until they got lucky with TM's general election feck up. Now the DUP have the power to not give in to the rights and language issues (these are a big deal to the extreme DUP voters) and Sinn Fein have the morale ground to hold out and hope brexit swings things back in their favour... which it did yesterday. Not having an executive in the north has been the most interesting political chess in years.

And while all this is happening the rest of the NI parties will stay out in the cold looking in because they don't have the pulling power to do anything other than make a few newspaper headlines.

One of the interesting things to do is to speculate how things might have gone had the moderate parties in the North held on or made gains.

If Alasdair McDonnell, Mark Durkan and Margaret Ritchie had been elected for the SDLP, Naomi Long for the Alliance, as well as Tom Elliott and Danny Kinahan for the Ulster Unionists, (only 8,600 votes would need to change) would the Northern Ireland voice in Westminister have been very different?

Would the DUP have been able to get us to this situation?

Is there a lesson for the Northern Irish electorate?

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 12:35PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

So what's the chance of the UK staying in the customs union? In order to do that they can say goodbye to freedom of movement.

If she cannot get some kind of deal done this week, surely has to be a January election?
The forces within the Tories cannot stalk any longer they will have to move.

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 12:37PM

blanch152 wrote: »

One of the interesting things to do is to speculate how things might have gone had the moderate parties in the North held on or made gains.

If Alasdair McDonnell, Mark Durkan and Margaret Ritchie had been elected for the SDLP, Naomi Long for the Alliance, as well as Tom Elliott and Danny Kinahan for the Ulster Unionists, (only 8,600 votes would need to change) would the Northern Ireland voice in Westminister have been very different?

Would the DUP have been able to get us to this situation?

Is there a lesson for the Northern Irish electorate?

At the end of the day, if you want to speculate: had May NOT paid the bung then this would have been sorted out between the EU and the UK. Both sides taking into account all the views.
What happened was, one party vetoed everybody else's views.

solodeogloria · 05-12-2017 12:37PM

Good morning!

blanch152 wrote: »

One of the interesting things to do is to speculate how things might have gone had the moderate parties in the North held on or made gains.

If Alasdair McDonnell, Mark Durkan and Margaret Ritchie had been elected for the SDLP, Naomi Long for the Alliance, as well as Tom Elliott and Danny Kinahan for the Ulster Unionists, (only 8,600 votes would need to change) would the Northern Ireland voice in Westminister have been very different?

Would the DUP have been able to get us to this situation?

Is there a lesson for the Northern Irish electorate?

The bigger lesson is for the British electorate. Why weren't they more decisive in June? Had they been this would have been signed yesterday.

The biggest is of course for the prime minister and the gamble to hold an election in June.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Schorpio · 05-12-2017 12:40PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

The bigger lesson is for the British electorate. Why weren't they more decisive in June? Had they been this would have been signed yesterday.

The biggest is of course for the prime minister and the gamble to hold an election in June.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Had they not voted for Brexit in the first place then they'd have a stronger currency, economic outlook, no NI border, and none of this would be an issue in the first place. But hey, whatever works for you.

listermint · 05-12-2017 12:40PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

The bigger lesson is for the British electorate. Why weren't they more decisive in June? Had they been this would have been signed yesterday.

The biggest is of course for the prime minister and the gamble to hold an election in June.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Dont listen to spin and zero facts and this never would have happened.

Entirely accurate post Solo, i commend you.

LeinsterDub · 05-12-2017 12:42PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

The bigger lesson is for the British electorate. Why weren't they more decisive in June? Had they been this would have been signed yesterday.

The biggest is of course for the prime minister and the gamble to hold an election in June.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

If the British electorate are going to learn anything it should be
A) What the EU does.

All the lies they where told during the referendum.
C) How to pressure for a second vote.

blanch152 · 05-12-2017 12:42PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

At the end of the day, if you want to speculate: had May NOT paid the bung then this would have been sorted out between the EU and the UK. Both sides taking into account all the views.
What happened was, one party vetoed everybody else's views.

That party was only in the position to do so because of the Northern Ireland electorate voting them and an abstentionist party in.

It would have been much better for Northern Ireland had the UUP, Alliance and SDLP taken seats in the last general election and provided a counterweight to the bigots in the DUP.

Infini · 05-12-2017 12:45PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

The bigger lesson is for the British electorate. Why weren't they more decisive in June? Had they been this would have been signed yesterday.

The biggest is of course for the prime minister and the gamble to hold an election in June.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The British Electorate were sold a pig in a poke based on lies, fantasies and the Russian Troll Army for good measure. Even at that it was a THIN majority that split the country literally in half.

It was made worse by calling an election that lost the conservatives their majority and then they make an agreement with the least negotiable party in the place who cant even be reasonable enough to agree to get their assembly back up.

flaneur · 05-12-2017 12:53PM

While there may be Russian trolls, the single biggest problem in the UK is the tabloid newspapers behaving more like political actors than real news outlets.

There aren't too many countries where media outlets openly back particular candidates and policies and go off on crusades. That has been the norm in the UK for decades and it's become the norm in the USA, since Fox News came on the scene and more or less translated the concept of a right wing British tabloid into a UK TV context.

Now with specialised online media and so on it's like tabloids on steroids.

British TV and radio is at least balanced, thanks to the BBC and C4 setting the tone as public service broadcasters and heavy regulation.

I just worry a little that in this "oh it's Russian trolls!" that they're just absolving themselves of any responsibility for creating and buying into very politically divisive agendas that were home-grown.

I'm not saying that there aren't Russian trolls, but the home grown ones are FAR bigger.

Peregrinus · 05-12-2017 12:53PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

So what's the chance of the UK staying in the customs union? In order to do that they can say goodbye to freedom of movement.

It's single market participation that requires free movement of labour. I don't think that's necessary to participate in the European Customs Union.

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 12:54PM

blanch152 wrote: »

That party was only in the position to do so because of the Northern Ireland electorate voting them and an abstentionist party in.

It would have been much better for Northern Ireland had the UUP, Alliance and SDLP taken seats in the last general election and provided a counterweight to the bigots in the DUP.

That didn't happen.

What happened was that May gave a bung to the DUP in return for power.

That allowed the DUP to veto what should have been an agreement between the UK and the EU.

The warp happened because of May's shortsightedness.

Leroy42 · 05-12-2017 12:57PM

blanch152 wrote: »

That party was only in the position to do so because of the Northern Ireland electorate voting them and an abstentionist party in.

It would have been much better for Northern Ireland had the UUP, Alliance and SDLP taken seats in the last general election and provided a counterweight to the bigots in the DUP.

at least 20 tory MP's, and I would bet a few within the cabinet, vetoed this deal as well. Of course that was on the back of the DUP but they are only part of the problem.

Many Tory are also unionist and coupled with their hatred of the EU will fight for the UK, no matter what the evidence is telling them.

So even if SF/SDLP/Alliance or whatever had won seats the Tory party, whether because of or just with May, are totally divided on this issue. Why do you think May stuck to the inane line of Brexit means Brexit for so long? Because nobody knew what position to take.

Many Brexit voters are still convinced, despite all the evidence, that getting away from the EU is worth the price and that UK will be back to ruling to waves in no time.

And it does seem to be based on nothing more that faith and fear. Much like in the US, the voters of the UK have so little actual facts and stick to soundbites to give their opinions the veneer of fact.

Taking back control, control our borders, British laws for British people. Trade deals with the rest of the world. Its all nonsense, peddled by people that have convinced themselves that fact and reason is no match for faith and ideology.

And you can't disprove them because it is never ending. No matter that the economy has taken a massive drop. It wasn't total wipe-out and it will pick up again at some indetermined point. When? Some time and it will be something. No facts are actually given, no details.

Ask anybody what Brexit means to them and you will get a rambling contradictory spasm of cliches and soundbites. Nothing of substance. Democracy is oft mentioned, but mention a 2nd ref and you will be hounded for daring to bring it up. The people have spoken you are told.

Every let down of previous promises (£350 pw NHS, no divorce settlement etc) is met with the excuse that it is actually all part of a grand UK plan that all the voters seemed to know about but no one else.

Sethanon · 05-12-2017 12:57PM

blanch152 wrote: »

That party was only in the position to do so because of the Northern Ireland electorate voting them and an abstentionist party in.

It would have been much better for Northern Ireland had the UUP, Alliance and SDLP taken seats in the last general election and provided a counterweight to the bigots in the DUP.

Its not a guarantee it would be better (other than the fact that it would have given the DUP less seats). The other parties are better in theory, but in reality they lack the conviction and backbone to actually do anything. They are stagnant because they do nothing, which is why the DUP and Sinn Fein walk away with so many votes (they do look after their own, which leads to them falling out with eachother - see the DUP minister immediately removing support for the Irish language as soon as the rotation came in for him to be minister. Its all pop shots at each other. Embarrassingly childish and we don't have a choice, as I say the other parties have no backbone.)

blanch152 wrote: »

Is there a lesson for the Northern Irish electorate?

A Lesson that they will pay heed to? I very much doubt it... Bubble, past grudges and all that. (remember you can literally boil the troubles down to 'protestants didn't want catholics having equal rights' that is the low brow mentality we have here in the north)

Leroy42 wrote: »

at least 20 tory MP's, and I would bet a few within the cabinet, vetoed this deal as well. Of course that was on the back of the DUP but they are only part of the problem.

Many Tory are also unionist and coupled with their hatred of the EU will fight for the UK, no matter what the evidence is telling them.

To be honest, having lived in England for a good few years before moving to the north, I can't think of a single English person, never mind torrie, who likes the north or wants it to be part of the UK. Given the choice they would drop it in a heartbeat, and any of them who say different are lying as a means to their own ends. Any torrie who vetoed due to that border has their own agenda, which is probably a hard border or a route to removing TM

Give the English the choice and they would gladly separate from Northern Ireland and Scotland. (which is ironic cause from my experience of living in the highlands of Scotland, they love the English and hate us!)

Peregrinus · 05-12-2017 12:59PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

The bigger lesson is for the British electorate. Why weren't they more decisive in June? Had they been this would have been signed yesterday.

The biggest is of course for the prime minister and the gamble to hold an election in June.

Nobody votes for a hung parliament. Electorates don't make collective decisions; voters make individual decisions. The polling booth is a very private place. If a hung Parliament results, that doesn't indicate a lack of decisiveness on the voters' part.

The voters are not to blame for the hung parliament but May, as you rightly point out, is. She gambled with the country's interests in order to secure a partisan advantage. She lost the gamble, but it's the country that will lose the stake.

(Bit like Cameron, really. There's been a huge dearth of competent political leadership in the UK in the last few years.)

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 01:00PM

DUP refusing to meet Theresa May.

Get the posters printed.

devnull · 05-12-2017 01:03PM

Gibraltar have said that they will not back a deal like the one that was tabled yesterday and are backing the DUP.

Meanwhile a few rebel MPs in Labour appear to have broke ranks and are now calling on Corbyn to demand Customs Union membership.

Brexit discussion thread II

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