Brexit discussion thread II

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 12:49AM

blanch152 wrote: »

I never said that Ireland and the rest of the EU's position is shifting towards that.

I am just saying that if May comes back and promises to respect the letter of the GFA, then how can we turn that down?

As for your last point, I have always felt that the UK staying in the CU/SM is the most likely outcome. It is also the best outcome for IReland. There will be many twists and turns along the way before that happens.

Ireland and the EU have to shift towards it or it is pointless and there is no sign at all that they will

johnnyskeleton · 05-12-2017 12:51AM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Mod note:

A gentle reminder folks that just because the world has gone mad doesnt mean that the charter and standards required for Political discussion here have in any way lessened!

Dont make me tap the sign folks!

Risteard81 wrote: »

So-called "EU" regulation is unwelcome and illegal throughout all of Ireland. So today's events were a positive thing.

Please explain this view if you want to discuss it, rather than simply asserting illegality

dasdog · 05-12-2017 01:00AM

I've been reading the comments section from the UK rags. Some quite nasty thoughts floating about, the Express is on a different level of vitriol but this made me laugh...

So we've had Brexit, Soft Brexit, Hard Brexit, Carry On Brexit, They Need Us More Than We Need Them Brexit, and now we're getting into Come Over Here If You Think You're Hard Enough Brexit from the silly end of the Brexiteers. Although it is difficult to tell which is the silly end.

Christy42 · 05-12-2017 01:07AM

blanch152 wrote: »

I never said that Ireland and the rest of the EU's position is shifting towards that.

I am just saying that if May comes back and promises to respect the letter of the GFA, then how can we turn that down?

As for your last point, I have always felt that the UK staying in the CU/SM is the most likely outcome. It is also the best outcome for IReland. There will be many twists and turns along the way before that happens.

By saying no. Seriously we have that power now. This is a complete negotiation and if we feel the deal is not right for Ireland we should feel absolutely free to reject it whatever was written in a previous negotiation.

Now certainly we should not go against the agreement ourselves but I see no reason it should be we will enforce the good Friday and give the UK everything they want outside of that which seems a bad way to go about negotiations. Heavens knows what the UK wants at this point.

As an other point the Irish government would also be within its rights to ensure the UK has a full plan in place to show what will happen and shows the steps and safety nets are in place to protect the GFA as opposed to a vague promise. Indeed I would consider them negligent if they didn't as it would allow them wiggle room later to reinterpret it as they see fit. At this point we can say if we are not happy with it. Bit more difficult to say they are going against the GFA in 5 years.

Samaris · 05-12-2017 01:49AM

I could see tying it to the GFA a compromise the DUP might swallow. There has been a good few comments out of them about RoI wanting a UI and land grabs and the rest of it. If the Irish government makes the "concession" of specifically not seeking an UI, they might take it as a win. RoI and GB kept open travel going for years based on two completely different interpretations of the same rule (GB decided it meant RoI were British citizens, RoI decided it meant that Irish citizens were allowed certain rights in Britain). As bullsh*t goes, it's pretty benign.

That is going to be a nightmare though. Regulations will start diverging while there are debates over what exactly "may include" means with that list in the GFA annex. There are going to be breaches and this is going to be incredibly complicated to unwind. I think we'd be better off with a contained unit customs union over this piecemeal approach - and it may get a bit hairy with the EU in terms of carving out sectors, so we'll have to see how that goes down. Even if this limps through in December, it could easily grind to a halt again. But needs must when the DUP vomits in your kettle, it might move things along until the inevitable collapse of the government.

flaneur · 05-12-2017 02:09AM

This just isn't going to work with the DUP in the mix there's no possible scenario that they will agree to any reasonable compromise. Everyone told the Tories this back after their disastrous election when they entered the confidence and supply arrangement.

You're talking about a party that can't even agree an assembly arrangement in Northern Ireland essentially because they're offended by a language and gay marriage and gets bogged down in arguments about symbols and flags and all sorts of dogma and minutia.

Brexit won't now happen and if the Brexiteers want anyone to blame, it's the DUP.

J Mysterio · 05-12-2017 02:10AM

devnull wrote: »

UK Newspaper Front Pages

Torygraph: May's Push for Deal Ends in Chaos
FT: Brexit divorce derailed at 11th hour after DUP blocks Irish border deal.
Metro: They're Taking the DUP
I: Brexit deal is done then DUP says no.
Mirror: Duped - May gave unionists £1bn for their support....now they derail brexit.
Guardian: DUP wrecks May's Brexit Deal
Times: May fights to save Brexit deal after Unionist Veto
Express: Irish border row stalls EU deal but May battles on

No Daily Mail yet.

Wow! Unionists arent going to feel to good about that... absolutely pilloried by the British press. Maybe they might reconsider by Wednesday and we can get the deal done.

farmerval · 05-12-2017 02:38AM

This must have been the craziest day politically in a long time.

First the proposed "deal" with Irish border comes out, then Scotland wants same, London Mayor looks for same, Wales look for same.

Then the DUP reject what the others want and pull the rug right out from under Theresa May.

At this stage with so many factions within the Tories and the fact that Labour are at best Lukewarm on reversing Brexit it's impossible to see any kind of a constructive settlement happening. Rightwing Tories setting new red lines seemingly every week, every time Theresa May seems about to move forward her own party try to Hi-jack the situation. Remember BoJo's red lines before her Florence speech, then over the weekend another set of red lines. Seems somewhat deliberate?

MadYaker · 05-12-2017 02:47AM

flaneur wrote: »

This just isn't going to work with the DUP in the mix there's no possible scenario that they will agree to any reasonable compromise. Everyone told the Tories this back after their disastrous election when they entered the confidence and supply arrangement.

You're talking about a party that can't even agree an assembly arrangement in Northern Ireland essentially because they're offended by a language and gay marriage and gets bogged down in arguments about symbols and flags and all sorts of dogma and minutia.

Brexit won't now happen and if the Brexiteers want anyone to blame, it's the DUP.

Brexit will happen regardless. The negotiations are to avoid a hard brexit.

flaneur · 05-12-2017 02:58AM

MadYaker wrote: »

Brexit will happen regardless. The negotiations are to avoid a hard brexit.

I wouldn’t be so sure of that after a UK general election.

J Mysterio · 05-12-2017 03:03AM

Many outlets reporting that Foster really did ring and get through to May during lunch with Juncker. So, basically Foster told her 'no' and May bowed down and scuppered the entire deal. Why didnt May tell her a sweet nothing, or at least tell her 'this is happening' and call her bluff. I think the excitement was too much for Foster but May cowed immediately, and embarrassingly.

Peregrinus · 05-12-2017 03:10AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Wow! Unionists arent going to feel to good about that... absolutely pilloried by the British press. Maybe they might reconsider by Wednesday and we can get the deal done.

To my lasting regret, this won't bother the DUP at all.

Remember, they see themselves as a beseiged community, a righteous remnant. It's no coincidence that their foundation myth is the Siege of Derry; they like nothing better than being besieged - if everybody's against them, they know that they must be Right. And Principled. And True. That's very comforting. It's when everybody's not against them that they feel insecure; they no longer know who they are.

Which is why - I said it at the time - a British government dependent on the DUP is profoundly unstable. There is nothing the DUP likes more than to bring their own house down about their ears on a "point of principle". You really don't want to be in the house with them when that happens.

As far as I can see, the only viable Brexit deal at this point is (a) "regulatory convergence" (or whatever term you want to pick) is substantially extended across the UK, rather than confined to NI, but (b) it's sufficiently softer than EEA/CU membership that the Tories can colourably say that they have succeeded in getting a Brexit deal while leaving the single market and the customs union.

Will this put fairly sharp limits on the trade deals that the UK can hope to agree with the US, China, countries yet to be discovered under the sea, etc, etc? Yes, it will. But (a) an EU trade deal was always going to be more important to the UK than any of these, and indeed more important than all of them put together; if the UK is forced to choose between a good EU trade deal and the theoretical freedom to negotiate trade deals with other countries on any terms it chooses, it should chose the EU trade deal, hands down, no questions asked. And (b) the fantasy of incredibly wonderful and favourable trade deals with the US, China, etc, was always a fantasy; none of them were ever going to offer anything remotely as good as what the UK currently has with the EU.

The question is, how can the UK get from where they are now to there? May's negotiating stock has plummeted. She brought a compromise to the table, and then had to take it away again because it turned out her own country - her own party, even - was not sufficiently behind her, and she could not deliver it. From the other side of the table, negotiating with someone in that position is an absolute nightmare; with the best will in the world, nothing they say can be relied upon. You will make no concessions, and give no ground, in order to make a deal with someone in that situation, since you have no confidence that the deal can actually be delivered.

May has to assert herself - face down the hard Brexiters in her own party by demanding a vote of confidence on the basis that if she wins it the party will be authorising her to negotiate the necessary compromises with the EU to make possible the Brexit deal that the UK needs. If she wins that vote of confidence, a Brexit deal may yet be salvaged; if she loses, it's (a) a new Tory leader and a general election, or (b) a new Tory leader, a commitment to a no-deal hard Brexit followed at some not-very-long deferred point by a general election followed by the new UK government going back to the EU and saying, can we get back to talking about a Brexit deal? Beyond that, I think the UK has run out of options.

And a final note: the difference between what Ireland has been able to acheive in these negotiations and what the UK has been able to achieve I think tells you all you need to know about how much "control" Brexit actually returns to the UK.

Strazdas · 05-12-2017 03:41AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Many outlets reporting that Foster really did ring and get through to May during lunch with Juncker. So, basically Foster told her 'no' and May bowed down and scuppered the entire deal. Why didnt May tell her a sweet nothing, or at least tell her 'this is happening' and call her bluff. I think the excitement was too much for Foster but May cowed immediately, and embarrassingly.

Whatever was going on behind the scenes, it was hugely embarrassing for May. She flew to Brussels to publicly sign off on Phase 1, it was all systems go on all fronts and with a large media presence. Then Foster tells her 'Forget it' and May has to meekly tell Juncker and Tusk the deal is off, after the big choreographed build up all morning. Tony Connelly on RTE reckons the EU were privately furious with her.

solodeogloria · 05-12-2017 07:43AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Robert Peston on ITV News making some interesting predictions as to what TM will do at cabinet tomorrow. Saying that she will confront Gove and Johnson et al and tell them its a deal for the whole UK similar to what was on offer for NI today or theres a hard Brexit or even maybe a 2nd referendum and the possibility of no Brexit at all after that. Could be stormy......

Good morning!

I personally doubt this will happen. I also doubt that she will exclaim that the UK is going to stay in the single market and customs union.

Think about the reaction to Andrew Rosindell that some people had on this thread (Having watched it I do think the Ireland as a whole will leave the EU is cloud cuckoo land) there aren't just two people in cabinet who can and will make May's life a living hell but there's at least 30 on the backbench. This is what I meant when I said they would make the "bastards" on Major's cabinet look remarkably pleasant.

The idea that May would now be keen to unleash a civil war in the Tory party on top of her current difficulties is mad.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Leroy42 · 05-12-2017 08:23AM

Totally agree Solo, TM is a shambles and the idea that she will stand up to anybody is fanciful.

Well, I guess she might finally grow a backbone and try but the others would laugh and call her bluff.

If I were British I would be very concerned that the current PM is so clearly incapable.

Solo, you have defended her in the past but even you must see that with May at the helm a no deal is the only realistic option at this stage.

That there is nobody any better to take over just shows what a massive hole the UK has dug itself.

Nobody can have any confidence going in to negotiations with the UK. There will be quite a wait for these trade deaks to restore the lost trade.

Peregrinus · 05-12-2017 08:27AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

I personally doubt this will happen. I also doubt that she will exclaim that the UK is going to stay in the single market and customs union.

Think about the reaction to Andrew Rosindell that some people had on this thread (Having watched it I do think the Ireland as a whole will leave the EU is cloud cuckoo land) there aren't just two people in cabinet who can and will make May's life a living hell but there's at least 30 on the backbench. This is what I meant when I said they would make the "bastards" on Major's cabinet look remarkably pleasant.

The idea that May would now be keen to unleash a civil war in the Tory party on top of her current difficulties is mad.

I don’t see that she has a huge amount of options, Solo.

The problem here is that the internal contradictions in the Brexit worldview that have long prevented the UK from producing a coherent and practical Brexit plan can no longer be ducked. May cannot reconcile her various red lines in a way which both (a) commands sufficient political support at home, and (b) offers a basis for a favourable relationship with the EU and the rest of the world into the future. You can try to have your cake and eat it, but when the cake turns out to be a disintegrating wet sponge you end up neither having it nor eating it. And that’s pretty much where we are now.

What are the May’s options?

1. Unilateral hard Brexit. Just walk. No exit payment. No transitional period. No trade deal. Just the bare minimum of agreements necessary to keep British planes in the air, to maintain supplies of radioactive elements for medical imaging, etc. Serious bad feeling with the EU. Hard borders. Serious short-term disruption, long-term damage to the UK’s economy. Serious damage to the UK’s reputation, standing, muscle when it comes to negotiating with third countries.

2. Negotiated hard Brexit. An exit payment. A Canada-type trade deal at best. Hard borders. Material damage to the UK’s economy. Weak position for the UK to negotiate with third countries.

3. Get real. Continue to press for good trade deal with the EU, and to prioritise that above other objectives. Channel Margaret Thatcher to face down bastards in own party. Seek mandate from party to make compromises necessary to achieve good trade deal in interests of UK. Take Boris Johnson out behind barn and shoot him pour encourager les autres. Either extend regulatory convergence to whole of UK to keep DUP onside, or make deal with SNP or Lib Dems that, e.g., they will abstain so that government’s Brexit proposals (inc. necessary compromises) get through Commons, on the basis that they feel soft Brexit better for the country than hard Brexit. Or do both of these things.

Option 1 is the least attractive and would be political suicide both for May personally and for her party for years to come. It would also do the most damage to the UK, both politically and economically. It really has nothing to recommend it.

Option 2 is a poor outcome for the UK and for May personally, since it highlights that she is not in control of her party, never mind her country. Hard brexiters will object to making an exit payment and getting just a Canada-type deal. (“Canada didn’t have to pay!” they will cry, completely missing the point as they invariably do.) It may well be that May can no more deliver support for this kind of a Brexit than she could deliver support for what was on the table yesterday.

Option 3 is risky, since it involves aiming high and quite possibly falling short of the mark. On the other hand, what has May got to lose? Options 1 and 2 both spell political doom for her. With option 3 she may yet snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, restore her reputation and deliver a not-completely-catastrophic Brexit for which in years to come her country will be grateful.

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 08:30AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

I personally doubt this will happen. I also doubt that she will exclaim that the UK is going to stay in the single market and customs union.

Think about the reaction to Andrew Rosindell that some people had on this thread (Having watched it I do think the Ireland as a whole will leave the EU is cloud cuckoo land) there aren't just two people in cabinet who can and will make May's life a living hell but there's at least 30 on the backbench. This is what I meant when I said they would make the "bastards" on Major's cabinet look remarkably pleasant.

The idea that May would now be keen to unleash a civil war in the Tory party on top of her current difficulties is mad.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

If she silences the cabinet Brexiteers she will silence the backbenches or render them powerless.
That is politics, that is leading.
There have always been noisy backbenchers. And 'backbencher' goes hand in hand with 'powerless'.
Sooner or later May is going to have to play her stake here and lead. And the time is here imo

solodeogloria · 05-12-2017 08:39AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don’t see that she has a huge amount of options, Solo.

The problem here is that the internal contradictions in the Brexit worldview that have long prevented the UK from producing a coherent and practical Brexit plan can no longer be ducked. May cannot reconcile her various red lines in a way which both (a) commands sufficient political support at home, and (b) offers a basis for a favourable relationship with the EU and the rest of the world into the future. You can try to have your cake and eat it, but when the cake turns out to be a disintegrating wet sponge you end up neither having it nor eating it. And that’s pretty much where we are now.

What are the May’s options?

1. Unilateral hard Brexit. Just walk. No exit payment. No transitional period. No trade deal. Just the bare minimum of agreements necessary to keep British planes in the air, to maintain supplies of radioactive elements for medical imaging, etc. Serious bad feeling with the EU. Hard borders. Serious short-term disruption, long-term damage to the UK’s economy. Serious damage to the UK’s reputation, standing, muscle when it comes to negotiating with third countries.

2. Negotiated hard Brexit. An exit payment. A Canada-type trade deal at best. Hard borders. Material damage to the UK’s economy. Weak position for the UK to negotiate with third countries.

3. Get real. Continue to press for good trade deal with the EU, and to prioritise that above other objectives. Channel Margaret Thatcher to face down bastards in own party. Seek mandate from party to make compromises necessary to achieve good trade deal in interests of UK. Take Boris Johnson out behind barn and shoot him pour encourager les autres. Either extend regulatory convergence to whole of UK to keep DUP onside, or make deal with SNP or Lib Dems that, e.g., they will abstain so that government’s Brexit proposals (inc. necessary compromises) get through Commons, on the basis that they feel soft Brexit better for the country than hard Brexit. Or do both of these things.

Option 1 is the least attractive and would be political suicide both for May personally and for her party for years to come. It would also do the most damage to the UK, both politically and economically. It really has nothing to recommend it.

Option 2 is a poor outcome for the UK and for May personally, since it highlights that she is not in control of her party, never mind her country. Hard brexiters will object to making an exit payment and getting just a Canada-type deal. (“Canada didn’t have to pay!” they will cry, completely missing the point as they invariably do.) It may well be that May can no more deliver support for this kind of a Brexit than she could deliver support for what was on the table yesterday.

Option 3 is risky, since it involves aiming high and quite possibly falling short of the mark. On the other hand, what has May got to lose? Options 1 and 2 both spell political doom for her. With option 3 she may yet snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, restore her reputation and deliver a not-completely-catastrophic Brexit for which in years to come her country will be grateful.

Good morning!

She's got everything to lose in number 3. You can't guarantee that she won't pick up more "bastards" in an election. I personally doubt the 1922 Committee would put it to another election anyway. They have been gagging for an opportunity to get rid of May but they can't do it. The Brexit negotiation for good or for ill has saved her job.

Her mistake yesterday was that she didn't speak with the DUP before agreeing to the wording. Had she kept a line open with the DUP or at least had the good sense to make the British officials more aware of their position they possibly could have had agreed better wording. Or alternatively if she had simply met Foster and explained the consequence of what was agreed beforehand (regulatory alignment to areas that affect the GFA only) then they may have had the agreement of the DUP also.

Despite the fact there's been moaning about the DUP on this thread - you can't blame them a) for responding in the way they did after being kept in the dark both by Theresa May and by Whitehall, or b) holding to their principles just like everyone else is.

On b) it's important to note that the UUP hold to a similar position. David Trimble wrote in the Spectator last week saying it was unworkable. He's basically said that yesterday's move was a dog's dinner. That it was. So the issue isn't just the DUP but unionist political parties across the board. You can see how it appears that Dublin was calling the shots to the detriment of the unionists. I don't blame them for this.

I had a feeling all was too good to be true by lunchtime as did many others on the thread.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If she silences the cabinet Brexiteers she will silence the backbenches or render them powerless.
That is politics, that is leading.
There have always been noisy backbenchers. And 'backbencher' goes hand in hand with 'powerless'.
Sooner or later May is going to have to play her stake here and lead. And the time is here imo

With all due respect that's remarkably naiive when you don't have a majority. You're only going to make them louder.

And that's fair enough. They have every right to be loud. They are only holding to their principles just like everyone else is.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

murphaph · 05-12-2017 08:41AM

Solo, surely you can see it's all a complete shambles now? The UK government is not governing.

solodeogloria · 05-12-2017 08:43AM

murphaph wrote: »

Solo, surely you can see it's all a complete shambles now? The UK government is not governing.

Good morning!

No. I think Brexit needs to happen. The problem now is in terms of how it is happening.

May made a huge miscalculation yesterday both by not thinking at the very least of the unionists and the backbench of her own party.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 08:46AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

With all due respect that's remarkably naiive when you don't have a majority. You're only going to make them louder.

And that's fair enough. They have every right to be loud. They are only holding to their principles just like everyone else is.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

With all due respect, the absolutely red faced embarrassment for a British PM yesterday should in ordinary decency be a resigning matter.

If she is entering into international agreements (like yesterday) that she cannot deliver then she has to take stock.
She has to 'lead' or leave the stage.
Staying is once again putting the Tory party game before running the country.

Edward M · 05-12-2017 08:51AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

With all due respect, the absolutely red faced embarrassment for a British PM yesterday should in ordinary decency be a resigning matter.

If she is entering into international agreements (like yesterday) that she cannot deliver then she has to take stock.
She has to 'lead' or leave the stage.
Staying is once again putting the Tory party game before running the country.

Just looking at her yesterday after the reversal, she looked like a little lost dog. There's no way for her to look credible again after yesterday.
She has to go I'd say!

Enzokk · 05-12-2017 08:54AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Her mistake yesterday was that she didn't speak with the DUP before agreeing to the wording. Had she kept a line open with the DUP or at least had the good sense to make the British officials more aware of their position they possibly could have had agreed better wording. Or alternatively if she had simply met Foster and explained the consequence of what was agreed beforehand (regulatory alignment to areas that affect the GFA only) then they may have had the agreement of the DUP also.

Despite the fact there's been moaning about the DUP on this thread - you can't blame them a) for responding in the way they did after being kept in the dark both by Theresa May and by Whitehall, or b) holding to their principles just like everyone else is.

On b) it's important to note that the UUP hold to a similar position. David Trimble wrote in the Spectator last week saying it was unworkable. He's basically said that yesterday's move was a dog's dinner. That it was. So the issue isn't just the DUP but unionist political parties across the board. You can see how it appears that Dublin was calling the shots to the detriment of the unionists. I don't blame them for this.

I had a feeling all was too good to be true by lunchtime as did many others on the thread.

But the DUP position doesn't guarantee an open border and probably mean hardware on the Irish border. They were going to have their cake and eat it, it wasn't going to be an orange cake but a chocolate cake. They have screwed it up for the people of NI unless there is a change of heart. Their insistence to stick to their principles, which you find admiring, is still principles stuck back in the 1900's and not fit for purpose in the present.

But for a Brexiter this is exactly what they wanted. The "soft" border option is once again off the table and its full speed ahead with hard brexit with a possible no deal. But who cares, its just almost all experts that warn against this but they are not to be trusted. I mean the UK hasn't melted up to now how George Osborne said they would so all of them are wrong.

flaneur · 05-12-2017 08:55AM

I’m not in any way agreeing with the DUP, but is is quite surprising that the May didn’t talk to them first. It sounds actually quite dismissive and arrogant and it shows how she really views the DUP.

Enzokk · 05-12-2017 08:57AM

flaneur wrote: »

I’m not in any way agreeing with the DUP, but is is quite surprising that the May didn’t talk to them first. It sounds actually quite dismissive and arrogant and it shows how she really views the DUP.

The Conservatives shouldn't need to consult the DUP only on matters on the NI. If they did engage all of the parties you would find that most likely the majority would agree with the agreement of yesterday. Would you still advocate that they then consult with the DUP?

flaneur · 05-12-2017 08:59AM

I’d advocate that they are realistic about their position and don’t turn up in Brussels or anywhere else making total idiots of themselves.

They are making the UK look utterly moronic and as if it doesn’t really have a functioning government.

They basically didn’t have the political support to do what they were committing to do in the media around the world.

Some correspondents this morning were saying that that she appears not to have even had a full debate in cabinet about it.

I don’t like the idea that the DUP are supporting this government, but that’s the reality of the situation and it just shows the total lack of reality in the British government at the moment.

They’re the same on every topic to do with Brexit. You can’t just solve all this with bluster.

solodeogloria · 05-12-2017 09:01AM

Enzokk wrote: »

But the DUP position doesn't guarantee an open border and probably mean hardware on the Irish border. They were going to have their cake and eat it, it wasn't going to be an orange cake but a chocolate cake. They have screwed it up for the people of NI unless there is a change of heart. Their insistence to stick to their principles, which you find admiring, is still principles stuck back in the 1900's and not fit for purpose in the present.

But for a Brexiter this is exactly what they wanted. The "soft" border option is once again off the table and its full speed ahead with hard brexit with a possible no deal. But who cares, its just almost all experts that warn against this but they are not to be trusted. I mean the UK hasn't melted up to now how George Osborne said they would so all of them are wrong.

Good morning!

Again - like flaneur said. The DUP were left in the dark by Whitehall and by Theresa May. I don't blame them at all for their reaction or for their concerns about their place in the UK being weakened. That's a valid concern.

The problems of yesterday in my mind rest entirely with the Prime Minister. I'll be interested to see if Cabinet were even fully aware! I don't know how Johnson or Gove or indeed Liam Fox would have agreed to it.

I'm going to be interested to see what can happen by the 14th. She's on the narrowest tightrope possible and she needs to stay on the middle of it to make it to the other side. Or indeed pray it doesn't snap completely in the meanwhile.

If anything it is fascinating politics.

Edit: it is also interesting when you hear people like Jacob Rees Mogg actually sound authoritative in the Tory party by saying the Conservatives never agreed to this wording and that it was just propaganda by the Irish Government (admittedly they shouldn't have ever released it until it was publicly agreed to by the British but that is conspiracy theory section). People like him and their chances at the top job are the reason why Peregrinus' number 3 wouldn't work.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Edward M · 05-12-2017 09:02AM

Enzokk wrote: »

The Conservatives shouldn't need to consult the DUP only on matters on the NI. If they did engage all of the parties you would find that most likely the majority would agree with the agreement of yesterday. Would you still advocate that they then consult with the DUP?

And the border issue doesn't concern NI I suppose?

flaneur · 05-12-2017 09:07AM

Forgetting about the politics of NI for a moment, and forgetting about whether we like or dislike the DUP, the problem is that, once again, the British government is being totally unrealistic and assuming “it’ll all right on the night” and going into major international meetings totally unprepared and without any of the background work done.

The reality of the situation is that the May government has no majority and is in a technical arrangement supported by the DUP, who have well established and very uncompromising and extreme views on this. Everyone told them this back when the government was first formed. They didn’t listen.

These are complex, difficult and extremely important negotiations and you cannot just treat them like this.

The hot air, bluster and spin doesn’t work in reality.

lawred2 · 05-12-2017 09:07AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Enzokk wrote: »

But the DUP position doesn't guarantee an open border and probably mean hardware on the Irish border. They were going to have their cake and eat it, it wasn't going to be an orange cake but a chocolate cake. They have screwed it up for the people of NI unless there is a change of heart. Their insistence to stick to their principles, which you find admiring, is still principles stuck back in the 1900's and not fit for purpose in the present.

But for a Brexiter this is exactly what they wanted. The "soft" border option is once again off the table and its full speed ahead with hard brexit with a possible no deal. But who cares, its just almost all experts that warn against this but they are not to be trusted. I mean the UK hasn't melted up to now how George Osborne said they would so all of them are wrong.

Good morning!

Again - like flaneur said. The DUP were left in the dark by Whitehall and by Theresa May. I don't blame them at all for their reaction or for their concerns about their place in the UK being weakened. That's a valid concern.

The problems of yesterday in my mind rest entirely with the Prime Minister. I'll be interested to see if Cabinet were even fully aware! I don't know how Johnson or Gove or indeed Liam Fox would have agreed to it.

I'm going to be interested to see what can happen by the 14th. She's on the narrowest tightrope possible and she needs to stay on the middle of it to make it to the other side. Or indeed pray it doesn't snap completely in the meanwhile.

If anything it is fascinating politics.

Edit: it is also interesting when you hear people like Jacob Rees Mogg actually sound authoritative in the Tory party by saying the Conservatives never agreed to this wording and that it was just propaganda by the Irish Government (admittedly they shouldn't have ever released it until it was publicly agreed to by the British but that is conspiracy theory section). People like him and their chances at the top job are the reason why Peregrinus' number 3 wouldn't work.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

So the fault doesn't lie with a communications cockup in Dublin?

Brexit discussion thread II

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