Brexit discussion thread II

lawred2 · 04-12-2017 07:35PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I'm saying there was a communication cockup in Dublin yes. I appreciate you disagree.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Good evening!

How was there a communication cockup in Dublin?

Much thanks,
me

flaneur · 04-12-2017 07:36PM

MadYaker wrote: »

I don’t understand why May would allow this deal to move forward without the DUP and up to 20 Tory MPs (according to the BBC) being fully aware of and having agreed to the details.

Because she and her government are living in fantasy la la land where they ignore all facts, all likely outcomes and all expert advice perhaps?

lawred2 · 04-12-2017 07:37PM

MadYaker wrote: »

I don’t understand why May would allow this deal to move forward without the DUP and up to 20 Tory MPs (according to the BBC) being fully aware of and having agreed to the details.

well with most functioning governments - backbenchers dance to the tune of the cabinet - it's the reverse with UK government currently.

Maybe May temporarily forgot that..

Or maybe she was playing a high stakes game where she was hoping to bounce them into agreement..

Samaris · 04-12-2017 07:38PM

devnull wrote: »

Honestly that interview on Sky News with the backbencher really was eye opening and shows just how out of touch the Tory Brexiteers are with what is going on, he had many one liners and views but was unable to back any of them up and had no idea about Irish politics, he appeared to live in a fantasy world where everything would just magically happen and work out.

Wind the live stream back however many minutes it is to 17:45 here if you want to see an out of touch brexiteer
https://news.sky.com/watch-live

Oh dear god. Especially the bit with "There's never been a hard border before." What planet is this man on?

awec · 04-12-2017 07:40PM

This post has been deleted.

J Mysterio · 04-12-2017 07:40PM

devnull wrote: »

Leo says in relation to the DUP they are just one party in NI and we need to have regard of what other parties think in Northern Ireland and also the people of Northern Ireland and not just the DUP.

He says the motivations of Irish government are to maintain status quo as much as possible and all they want is people to go about normal lives as they do now and only objective and not looking to pick around and there is no hidden agenda as response to the DUP chancers accusation.

This is it. The reality of the situation seemed a bit much for Arlene and the other 5 lads there. The rest of us just want to get on with this now.

flaneur · 04-12-2017 07:41PM

I could see the EU and the markets losing all confidence in the ability of the Tories to do any kind of deal on anything now.

If they can't deal with this, they can't really deal with the rest of the Brexit negotiations either. They'll just be shot down by one faction or another.

I mean, if you compare this to the period when Ireland had a financial crisis, there was a pulling together of all the parties and a real sense of clarity of purpose. OK, it may not have been the most pleasant few years, but there was absolutely no sense that we were all running around like headless chickens.

In the UK the whole system now seems to be just breaking down and becoming dysfunctional.

Frank Bullitt · 04-12-2017 07:43PM

Its looking like a mix of the DUP and some back benchers throwing their toys out.

Mad stuff altogether. I am getting a sinister laugh out of the few tweets I am seeing from people saying that its obscene that the UKs deal is being held up by Ireland, and that they are not negotiating with one country, but the EU...despite the EU and Ireland pretty much being the same in this.

MadYaker · 04-12-2017 07:46PM

The DUP hold a fair bit of sway here but they are still in a pinch. A hard brexit or a hard border would be a disaster for NI economically and socially and they would pay for it at the polls, yet that is what the DUP are pushing for.

Odhinn · 04-12-2017 07:47PM

MadYaker wrote: »

The DUP hold a fair bit of sway here but they are still in a pinch. A hard brexit or a hard border would be a disaster for NI economically and socially and they would pay for it at the polls, yet that is what the DUP are pushing for.

They have no mandate to do so either.

Beechwoodspark · 04-12-2017 07:48PM

So the option seems to be

DUP accept the deal as is or...

New deal negotiated or...

UK govt falls and snap election.

ROI should refuse any overture to reopen the negotiations in my opinion. The deal is there to be signed off on by the UK, or not. Their choice.

solodeogloria · 04-12-2017 07:49PM

Good evening!

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Hardly trying to distract from the absolutely farcical cockup by the UK today are we?

Much thanks(?!)
Bws

Not at all. I mentioned both together in my original post.

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

To be fair though. Two things seemed to go wrong with today.

The first one was that the Irish Government were proclaiming they had a deal before anyone was sure it was concrete. Then a number of MEPs exclaimed the same thing in Brussels. That's surely a communication failure.

The other one was that it seems like the British Government didn't even consult the DUP on what was being proposed in Brussels. That's worse I think. If you want to ensure that all things can be sorted surely resolving things directly with the DUP first is the way to go about it.

The problem is that although the wording was good for Dublin it wasn't good enough for the DUP. And yes, it is one of the most difficult balancing acts I've seen in a long time.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

I and many others had a feeling on this thread about whether or not this was actually going to happen. RTÉ broke this story prematurely as did the Government.

By lunchtime we were asking how were the DUP going to agree with this and sure enough they never did. In fact it looked like Theresa May didn't even speak to them! That's cockup number 2.

I'm going to criticise things that are worthy of criticism. I respect people disagree.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

flaneur · 04-12-2017 07:50PM

It looks to me like it's just going to be chaos for the next few months until the UK either falls out of the EU or there's a general election - whichever one happens first!

devnull · 04-12-2017 07:57PM

Samaris wrote: »

Oh dear god. Especially the bit with "There's never been a hard border before." What planet is this man on?

But Rosindell is not alone with that beliefs, the load of rubbish that he spouts is what a lot of the Brexiteers believe and most of the leave wing of the Tory party, they are all completely ignorant as to the issues that Brexit would bring and how hard they are to resolve.

They seem to think that there are easy fixes to everything and come up with various soundbites like that which show a complete ignorance of the issues at hand here without having any knowledge of the history of this country or Northern Ireland or the problems it faces.

There is a lot of people who thought they would just leave the EU and keep all of the bits that they liked and got rid of the parts that they don't like and everyone else will just give them everything that they want because they are so important. When they don't get that they cry foul.

awec wrote: »

To be honest I'd remain a bit skeptical that it was actually the DUP that scuppered the deal. More likely to be the back bench tories. But saying it was the DUP suits both the DUP who can look like they have influence and Theresa May who can shift the focus outside her own party.

It was both for sure, Rosindell confirmed that.

devnull · 04-12-2017 08:00PM

Speaking of out of touch Brexiteers, another example is the head of JD Wetherspoon. He reckons food prices are going to go down massively and they are going to save £200m a week that will take 700,000 people out of poverty and it could lead £15,000 to these people each because of the removal of tarrifs.

Apparently everyone else does not know what they are talking about and have a religious connection to the EU and are misleading the public. When asked about the fact Sterling is going to be weakend so even if they will make gains from lack of tarrifs the devaluation of the currency will mean it's lost anyway he even disputed that the currency was devalued!

Apparently the price of Sterling going down is just a co-incidence and it was simply a small correction and the whole thing is a shaggy dog story and it always goes up and down and nothing to worry about a floating pound and it's just scare tactics.

They really are deluded aren't they?

Samaris · 04-12-2017 08:00PM

devnull wrote: »

But Rosindell is not alone with that beliefs, the load of rubbish that he spouts is what a lot of the Brexiteers believe and most of the leave wing of the Tory party, they are all completely ignorant as to the issues that Brexit would bring and how hard they are to resolve.

Terrifyingly and inexcusably ignorant at this point in the negotiations. Seriously, look at everything that ordinary people chatting on forums actually understand about all this now, and then look at what is being spouted as solutions by people ostensibly in power. There is just no excuse for being this ignorant at this stage as someone like Rosindell or god help the UK if he succeeds May, Jacob Rees-Mogg is.

And regarding JD Wetherspoons man, jaysus monkey pants. Please tell me he's nowhere near Westminster, they're all confused enough as it is.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 08:00PM

Is it possible that Arlene Foster has been fuming more and more since the rather gratuitous elevation of the Republic by Tusk & Co on Friday (handled quite graciously by Leo, in fairness)... and that the temperature just kept going up until the Irish news broke the story this morning, perhaps a little bit earlier than planned....

And she forgot what she had already agreed with May and ... stamped her feet for attention.

I hope so, because if that is the case May will go and see her for some "Consultation" and they will both come out together with assurances about no border in the Irish sea (note, also Leo's words) and everyone can get on with life.

May has cancelled her planned long statement on Europe in the house tomorrow. Presumably she'll be on her hands and knees searching for Arlene's dummy instead.

flaneur · 04-12-2017 08:02PM

Another £1 billion dummy ?

Infini · 04-12-2017 08:07PM

Real possibility of a General Election at this stage.

Simply put the Conservatives (aka Coliseum Party cos the knives are ALWAYS out C_C) have no coherent plan, political strength or ability to negotiate. They don't have any advantages here. They want to leave the EU because of a referendum that was fought based on outright lies by the leave side and are now finding out the hard reality of what leaving the EU actually means.

Take in the fact that they went into a GE that lost them a majority and left them tied to an unreliable partner that will not negotiate or can even get Stormount back up (and Arlene has no credibilty after the whole RHI debacle imo) and wants everything their own way and you can only see one way this is heading.

It's looking distinctly possible that if there's no progress to Stage 2 which is very likely then there will be serious pressure on any government that comes in after. Businesses will most likely begin activating contingency plans and there will likely be no avoiding a GE at this point.

I honestly do believe that Brexit will ultimately be cancelled because when something was won based on lies and REALITY sets in it can change things enough that those who dont want this will get enough credibilty and political backing to end this before it becomes severely damaging.

cml387 · 04-12-2017 08:07PM

If it's ignorance you want:

from BBC's reality check:

Owen Paterson told the Today Programme that there's only a small amount of trade between the UK and Republic of Ireland.

The Republic of Ireland is the fifth biggest customer for UK exports. The UK is the second biggest customer for Irish exports.

And the Republic of Ireland is a much more important destination for exports from Northern Ireland than Mr Paterson's figures suggest. It doesn't buy 5%, it buys 37%.

But Northern Ireland does indeed buy 1.6% of the Irish Republic's exports.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 08:08PM

It doesn't matter to me as I have always been of the opinion that Britain cares little for northern Ireland when it comes to their own selfish interests, but would what May was prepared to sign up to today not massively undermine your security if you were a unionist?

Royale with Cheese · 04-12-2017 08:12PM

I just don't get why unioninsts are still so staunchly loyal to the UK at this point, the vast majority of the population and their government clearly don't give a fúck about Northern Ireland.

selectamatic · 04-12-2017 08:13PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I'm going to criticise things that are worthy of criticism. I respect people disagree.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Bail ó Dhia oraibh!

Seeing as we're going criticising things that are worthy of criticism, when can we expect your essay criticising Foster, Paisley jr, Wilson etc. for basically denying the North of Ireland achieving a special arrangement that would have put it's populace in a great position for future trading with both the EU and mainland UK. For the vast majority in the north this could have been an acceptable and above all beneficial deal regardless of class, creed or belief.

Thus the tanking of it surely warrants criticism does it not?

Le gach dea-ghuí,
Selectamatic

Beechwoodspark · 04-12-2017 08:14PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It doesn't matter to me as I have always been of the opinion that Britain cares little for northern Ireland when it comes to their own selfish interests, but would what May was prepared to sign up to today not massively undermine your security if you were a unionist?

The unionists never seem to get it through to their skulls that a huge majority of British people see them as Irish not British. NI is seen as a distant outlying province that is not relevant to the mainstream.

The best they get is the occasional lip service the Tories pay them when they require votes from them.

Phonehead · 04-12-2017 08:15PM

Infini wrote: »

I honestly do believe that Brexit will ultimately be cancelled because when something was won based on lies and REALITY sets in it can change things enough that those who dont want this will get enough credibilty and political backing to end this before it becomes severely damaging.

I just can't see this happening to be honest, a pretty hefty % of the British population and indeed a lot of their politicians would see this as a huge national embarrassment or surrendering of the country. I just can't see them admitting defeat to the EU (as they would see it)

solodeogloria · 04-12-2017 08:16PM

selectamatic wrote: »

Bail ó Dhia oraibh!

Seeing as we're going criticising things that are worthy of criticism, when can we expect your essay criticising Foster, Paisley jr, Wilson etc. for basically denying the North of Ireland achieving a special arrangement that would have put it's populace in a great position for future trading with both the EU and mainland UK. For the vast majority in the north this could have been an acceptable and above all beneficial deal regardless of class, creed or belief.

Thus the tanking of it surely warrants criticism does it not?

Le gach dea-ghuí,
Selectamatic

Good evening!

I don't blame the DUP for having concerns, and I don't blame the DUP for not having been spoken to beforehand.

As a part of the negotiating process that has been happening over the last few weeks they should have been involved and consulted by the British Government as that process was happening.

It seems like they weren't. This is why there were issues today.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

cml387 · 04-12-2017 08:16PM

From the BBC

Conservative MPs emerging from a Downing Street briefing on the talks said they had been told Mrs May had not agreed the proposal on regulatory alignment put forward by the Irish government.

So there you have it.

The spin is that the form of words as reported this morning had not been agreed.

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 08:26PM

A point to note is that Northern Ireland already has special status in the UK. It's called the good Friday agreement. It's not as British as Finchely or Somerset as Jacob Rees Mogg likes to point out. They only way it operates is by parity of esteem between the two communities there.

flatty · 04-12-2017 08:28PM

MadYaker wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

May should expel the hardliners who openly rebelled, and go back to the country, with a clear statement that she will re-run the referendum in the light of new evidence, publish the dossiers the tories have been sitting on regarding the economic ramifications, publish the evidence of Russian interference, and see what happens. And fast. It is both her, and the uk's only real chance of surviving intact.

That is never going to happen. We need to accept that brexit is happening one way or another. If negotiations break down it will still happen.

I know, she is a political opportunist and a coward. It would be a brave play, and history would judge her well for it whatever happened.
Here's smugness at triggering article 50 has worn off, that's for sure.

flutered · 04-12-2017 08:36PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Varadkar saying he's not open to changes to the wording that change the meaning. Good to hear. If he indicates a willingness to do so it's an invitation to dilute the process. The Irish government needs to hold its nerve and be firm on this.

to me it eu will be rather testy after today, they will not be happy and will make life hard for the uk in any negotiations from here on in

Brexit discussion thread II

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