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Brexit discussion thread II

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Comments

  • #8582
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,387 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    Big day. Looks like the British have capitulated completely and there will be a sea border which is effectively step one of a united Ireland. The next few hours of press conferences will be interesting.


  • #8583
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    Harika wrote: »
    The guardian points out



    :pac: This deal could well mean the end of the May-DUP coalition and a general election followed by Corbyn.

    Any chance of an May-SNP deal ? A quid pro quo?


  • #8584
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,673 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Arlene says NO
    BREAK: @DUPleader Arlene Foster: "We will not accept any kind of regulatory divergence." #Brexit https://t.co/7020DmXoXq


  • #8585
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,988 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    No, I think the situation is that either the final deal will have no divergence in NI or there will be no deal.

    The wording eliminates the possibility that there will be a deal which allows a hard border, but there is still the possibility that there will be no deal and a hard border.


    It seems the RTE article puts it that either way, with or without a deal, there will be no divergence for NI. We will have to see what the final deal says and if it is actually agreed to but if this is it then NI will be having its cake and eating it all day long.
    The text, which was worked on intensively over the weekend and into the early hours of the morning, contained the following paragraph on Ireland:

    "In the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be no divergence from those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement."

    Seems that even in the absence of a deal the UK will ensure NI stays in the CU in theory at least.


  • #8586
    listermint
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,403 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Arlene says NO

    I presume she means with Ireland :D


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  • #8587
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Arlene says NO

    Arlene at 2.00, Vradkar at 2.30 and May at 4.00 (after meeting). Foster getting her retaliation in first.


  • #8588
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,387 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Arlene says NO

    She's not going to have any say in the end unless she wants to ruin the only bit of future leverage that she has. If they pull down the government what do they think will happen? They'll be trusted the next time to be government partners?? Nope. They're screwed.


  • #8589
    Harika
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,584 ✭✭✭Harika


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    Any chance of an May-SNP deal ? A quid pro quo?

    Depends how desperate May is to keep in power. Will she sacrifice NI and Scotland to lead Wales and England out of the EU?


  • #8590
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,387 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    listermint wrote: »
    I presume she means with Ireland :D

    Very good lol


  • #8591
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,988 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Jayop wrote: »
    She's not going to have any say in the end unless she wants to ruin the only bit of future leverage that she has. If they pull down the government what do they think will happen? They'll be trusted the next time to be government partners?? Nope. They're screwed.


    Either way today will have interesting consequences for the UK and for Brexit. Either we have the deal that Ireland wants but the DUP doesn't but they have to put up with it. Or we have the DUP taking the UK government down due to this deal.


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  • #8592
    Panrich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,980 ✭✭✭Panrich


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Either way today will have interesting consequences for the UK and for Brexit. Either we have the deal that Ireland wants but the DUP doesn't but they have to put up with it. Or we have the DUP taking the UK government down due to this deal.

    Or the most likely that May has told the DUP privately that all UK will remain in CU.

    The DUP conference seems to confirm this.


  • #8593
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,387 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Either way today will have interesting consequences for the UK and for Brexit. Either we have the deal that Ireland wants but the DUP doesn't but they have to put up with it. Or we have the DUP taking the UK government down due to this deal.

    A win win for the UK and the DUP according to some here funnily.


  • #8594
    Christy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    It would definitely be difficult, not least because of currency issues, but not impossible. If Scotland did vote for independence and applied to join the EU, it would be in the EU's best interests to help it join simply because it is showing solidarity with a people who were members. In that scenario, I could see an interim arrangement being put in place. Remember, although Scotland was not a member, the region was a member with the vast majority of regulations and legislation already in place.

    Oh yeah. Scotland would have to vote for independence first but it would be possible.

    Interesting to see the reactions. If May got agreement from Labour on this one section could she get this through without the DUP or would thry still have a veto at some point?


  • #8595
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,387 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    Panrich wrote: »
    Or the most likely that May has told the DUP privately that all UK will remain in CU.

    The DUP conference seems to confirm this.

    Would be better for Ireland if it was just NI.


  • #8596
    Panrich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,980 ✭✭✭Panrich


    Jayop wrote: »
    Would be better for Ireland if it was just NI.

    It might be better in a nationalist sense but we do a lot of trade to and via UK and that is better protected in the CU.


  • #8597
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,673 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Jayop wrote: »
    Would be better for Ireland if it was just NI.

    Would be better for us if all the UK stay in. Miserable for the Brexiters if that happens.


  • #8598
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,861 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Jayop wrote: »
    Would be better for Ireland if it was just NI.

    No, it wouldn't. The UK staying in the customs union would be a great success for Ireland.


  • #8599
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Christy42 wrote: »
    Oh yeah. Scotland would have to vote for independence first but it would be possible.

    Interesting to see the reactions. If May got agreement from Labour on this one section could she get this through without the DUP or would thry still have a veto at some point?

    They can pull down the government at any time. Can't see any other party supporting a minority government. I do think that this is the DUP's last hurrah. If they pull the plug they'll be back to the wilderness under a probable Corbyn government. Essentially it would be the last sting of a dying wasp. I think they'll cling to the Tory coat tails as long as possible and hope to influence things from inside the tent. In many ways, they are the biggest losers from Brexit, ironically.


  • #8600
    MBSnr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,252 ✭✭✭MBSnr


    Panrich wrote: »
    Or the most likely that May has told the DUP privately that all UK will remain in CU.

    The DUP conference seems to confirm this.

    I'm not sure. Foster's voice seemed to be emotional. Could be she was containing her rage...


  • #8601
    Larbre34
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,501 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Talk about being overtaken by events! I always suspected May and Hammond were trojan horses, only here to demonstrate how catastrophic any Brexit would be, then to scupper it. And fair play they are succeeding.

    The way things are playing out, this Brexit will only advantage the EU, in that trade will carry on more or less as before, with the pesky UK voice gone from all decision making fora. And for that reason it won't happen at all.

    At least M&S will do well today given the sudden change of underwear required across northern unionism.


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  • #8602
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,673 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    MBSnr wrote: »
    I'm not sure. Foster's voice seemed to be emotional. Could be she was containing her rage...
    If the deal is as reported I can't fathom how May has squared it with the DUP unless she has told them something privately.


  • #8603
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    MBSnr wrote: »
    I'm not sure. Foster's voice seemed to be emotional. Could be she was containing her rage...

    Betrayal can make you very angry...


  • #8604
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    If the deal is as reported I can't fathom how May has squared it with the DUP unless she has told them something privately.

    Something like "I call your bluff"?


  • #8605
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,387 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    blanch152 wrote: »
    No, it wouldn't. The UK staying in the customs union would be a great success for Ireland.

    Ah here an hour ago you were saying this was a great deal for the UK and they got one over on Ireland and the EU. I'd hardly take anything you say on board.


  • #8606
    MBSnr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,252 ✭✭✭MBSnr


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    If the deal is as reported I can't fathom how May has squared it with the DUP unless she has told them something privately.

    Hmm perhaps there's an internal rage! She's caught between trusting the Tories on a possible 'private' agreement or forcing an election, if they pull out of propping up the Gov... Either way it's a gamble and they'll probably lose out.


  • #8607
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,028 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    So it appears the DUP aren't happy with the Westminster government who seem to have ignored their calls for there to not be a special solution.


  • #8608
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,387 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Would be better for us if all the UK stay in. Miserable for the Brexiters if that happens.

    Na. Put a big old border between England and NI. I'd take that over anything else.


  • #8609
    Harika
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,584 ✭✭✭Harika


    London to leave England?

    https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/937687487488692231


  • #8610
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,518 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Harika wrote: »
    London to leave England?

    https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/937687487488692231

    At this stage, it will be Newcastle leaving the eu, everyone else staying.


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  • #8611
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,677 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    It looks like the DUP aren't onboard afterall. I hope the Irish Government wasn't briefing too hard before a deal had been sealed.


This discussion has been closed.
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