Brexit discussion thread II

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 02:14PM

Just a thought. Could May be planning to go to the country having progressed to Stage 2? Big gamble maybe.

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 02:15PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Sorry I can't link but Sammy Wilson on the radio said the deal will be vetoed at Stormont. Jim Allister, TUV says it amounts to a united Ireland.

As others have said, there is no Stormont. If there was a push by the DUP I could see SF dragging their heels on every little issue when it comes to agreeing to an assembly in the first place in order to obstruct such a vote every getting to the floor.

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 02:15PM

kowtow wrote: »

You could be right, but if that were the case surely we would be expecting a binding side agreement at this stage. So far as I am aware the UK position is that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed which includes money, citizens rights, etc. etc.?

Yes. But we now know that nothing will be agreed which contradicts this.

solodeogloria · 04-12-2017 02:17PM

Enzokk wrote: »

The RTE news story has the following quote,

Now the text may not say that NI will be in the customs union, but that surely reads that they will not have different rules so they will in effect be in the customs union and single market. Does that not mean there will not be a divergence in trade tariffs between NI and Ireland because NI will follow the rules of the CU and SM?

UK to make Brexit concessions over NI

Good afternoon!

What I read on The Guardian seems to suggest no divergence that would prevent an open border and Good Friday Agreement cooperation. Would a divergence in the sale of services constitute this?

There's a lot still unclear. I'm waiting for detail before I make conclusions.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 02:18PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just a thought. Could May be planning to go to the country having progressed to Stage 2? Big gamble maybe.

She's not going to make that mistake a second time.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 02:21PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

She's not going to make that mistake a second time.

Even she must know an election is inevitable. Why not go on as positive a note as she is likely to get.

Zubeneschamali · 04-12-2017 02:29PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Some interim arrangement could be cobbled together but Scotland would go through some very hard times as the general consensus is that it would take at least four years for an independent Scotland to become a member.

I am thinking the the EU would be prepared to go full Marshall Plan to help EU citizens dragged out of the Union against their will by the Brexiteers.

Not for any economic reason, just basic solidarity with a bit of "Up yours" to Westminster.

Enzokk · 04-12-2017 02:31PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

What I read on The Guardian seems to suggest no divergence that would prevent an open border and Good Friday Agreement cooperation. Would a divergence in the sale of services constitute this?

There's a lot still unclear. I'm waiting for detail before I make conclusions.

Seems to me that Ireland thinks that NI at least will stay in the single market and customs union from the RTE story and the below Guardian story.

The UK still hopes that an ambitious and unprecedented trade deal will be struck with the EU in the future that makes the agreement struck on Monday academic. However, the agreement that appears to be struck between London and Dublin would effectively keep Northern Ireland in keys aspects of the single market and customs union in event of a less generous trade accord being settled in the future.

So whatever deal is struck between the EU and the UK the island of Ireland will still be part of the customs union and single market. That is what is being reported. But I feel there is still a long way to go for all the information to come out, but if this is the concession then its a big one for the EU and for Ireland.

MEPs say UK has conceded on Ireland border in Brexit talks

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 02:34PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

DUP suspiciously silent at the moment. I'd say they've cut a deal with May for a bumper package for Northern Ireland.

It's an astounding result for Varadkar & Coveney too if they pull this off.

The full article from the Belfast Telegraph here.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-reacts-to-brexit-draft-report-that-uk-ready-to-concede-to-irelands-demands-over-border-36377055.html

Zubeneschamali · 04-12-2017 02:35PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems to me that Ireland thinks that NI at least will stay in the single market and customs union from the RTE story and the below Guardian story.

No, I think the situation is that either the final deal will have no divergence in NI or there will be no deal.

The wording eliminates the possibility that there will be a deal which allows a hard border, but there is still the possibility that there will be no deal and a hard border.

Professor Moriarty · 04-12-2017 02:35PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I am thinking the the EU would be prepared to go full Marshall Plan to help EU citizens dragged out of the Union against their will by the Brexiteers.

Not for any economic reason, just basic solidarity with a bit of "Up yours" to Westminster.

You're probably right. The alternative would to be leave a pro-EU nation to twist in the wind.

Zubeneschamali · 04-12-2017 02:37PM

It is looking like the UK team folded on the divorce bill, and folded on NI.

So, what about citizen's rights? When do they fold on that one?

Blowfish · 04-12-2017 02:38PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, it's not that Scotland would be returning to the EU as it has never been a member. Some interim arrangement could be cobbled together but Scotland would go through some very hard times as the general consensus is that it would take at least four years for an independent Scotland to become a member. That's assuming that there would be no objections/veto from any existing EU members.

There's a solution to that. England and Wales leave the UK and thus EU, with Scotland and NI remaining as the UK's membership of the EU :pac:

Gerry T · 04-12-2017 02:38PM

Leroy42 wrote:

Not sure what this is asking or point you are making. Can you elaborate please?

It was light humor, "mainland" should refer to a mainland, not a little island like the UK.

Professor Moriarty · 04-12-2017 02:39PM

Blowfish wrote: »

There's a solution to that. England and Wales leave the UK and thus EU, with Scotland and NI remaining as the UK's membership of the EU :pac:

Everyone's happy!

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 02:39PM

From May's point of view the optics are very poor for her if what we hear is the agreed text. If the DUP haven't been placated in some way, and it doesn't sound like they were, members of her own party may try pull the carpet out from beneath her, there does seem to be the feeling in the UK that she 'capitulated' to Ireland, nevermind the EU.

This Daily Mail front page is even starting to do the rounds again.

https://twitter.com/AndyShepp_rd/status/937669289808719872

04-12-2017 02:40PM

Blowfish wrote: »

with Scotland and NI remaining as the UK's membership of the EU :pac:

Would they also have to continue contributing the UKs £12bn per year as well :pac:

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 02:42PM

Nicola off and running.

If one part of UK can retain regulatory alignment with EU and effectively stay in the single market (which is the right solution for Northern Ireland) there is surely no good practical reason why others can’t.

Harika · 04-12-2017 02:43PM

According to twitter and news it is:

Ireland: Done Deal - Great
Britain: Silence
DUP: Not with us

There is talk to have the final wording out around 14:30 and to polish it in a way to not anger the DUP too much.

Christy42 · 04-12-2017 02:44PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You're probably right. The alternative would to be leave a pro-EU nation to twist in the wind.

Doubtful. Ireland is a member already and a full country which Scotland is not.

Plus Scotland would require a land border between it and the rest of the UK. A sea border is cleaner and would have all the problems of NI not being in the customs union. Scotland can look for it but I don't see the will being in the EU to fight it. Nor can I see it being their business, Scotland can elect officials who will fight for this if they so wish but it is hardly going to be a serious issue for them.

FreudianSlippers · 04-12-2017 02:44PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nicola off and running.

She's not wrong though in theory...

LeinsterDub · 04-12-2017 02:47PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It is looking like the UK team folded on the divorce bill, and folded on NI.

So, what about citizen's rights? When do they fold on that one?

They already did the ECJ will have oversight

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 02:50PM

Arlene to speak at 2pm

Professor Moriarty · 04-12-2017 02:50PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Doubtful. Ireland is a member already and a full country which Scotland is not.

Plus Scotland would require a land border between it and the rest of the UK. A sea border is cleaner and would have all the problems of NI not being in the customs union. Scotland can look for it but I don't see the will being in the EU to fight it. Nor can I see it being their business, Scotland can elect officials who will fight for this if they so wish but it is hardly going to be a serious issue for them.

It would definitely be difficult, not least because of currency issues, but not impossible. If Scotland did vote for independence and applied to join the EU, it would be in the EU's best interests to help it join simply because it is showing solidarity with a people who were members. In that scenario, I could see an interim arrangement being put in place. Remember, although Scotland was not a member, the region was a member with the vast majority of regulations and legislation already in place.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 02:53PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

They already did the ECJ will have oversight

Where did they get to on that?

The last report I saw had the UK courts "able at their option" to refer cases to the ECJ, for a binding decision. It also had the UK courts looking to precedent from the ECJ.

Is that where it rests?

04-12-2017 02:53PM

Sky News reporting the following (at 1.48pm). Still appears to be good for the EU & Irish government side of the fence.

Two Irish government sources have told Reuters that British and European Union Brexit negotiators have reached agreement on a deal for ALL Irish issues, including the maintenance of regulatory alignment on the island to avoid a hard border.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-may-heads-for-crunch-talks-on-brexit-deal-11156136

Harika · 04-12-2017 02:54PM

The guardian points out

We now seem to be in an odd position where Northern Ireland is getting a post-Brexit guarantee its lead political party does not want, while Scotland is being denied the same guarantee even though its lead political party is in favour.

:pac: This deal could well mean the end of the May-DUP coalition and a general election followed by Corbyn.

LuckyLloyd · 04-12-2017 02:56PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

She's not wrong though in theory...

No she's not, and I think them pushing for such a solution can only help Irish interests.

Beechwoodspark · 04-12-2017 02:57PM

So either the dup accepts this or...what? Pull out of govt and snap election? Comrade Corbyn gets in?

LeinsterDub · 04-12-2017 02:58PM

kowtow wrote: »

Where did they get to on that?

The last report I saw had the UK courts "able at their option" to refer cases to the ECJ, for a binding decision. It also had the UK courts looking to precedent from the ECJ.

Is that where it rests?

Yeah. The no ECJ involvement at all Red Line has gone by the wayside.

Brexit discussion thread II

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