Brexit discussion thread II

blanch152 · 04-12-2017 01:30PM

kowtow wrote: »

They won't.

First, whatever the agreement is - if there is one - will set out an extremely ambitious regime, with the complete co-operation of Ireland, to move towards streamlined electronic checks - a border solution 'for the future'. In theory such a solution, subject to whatever is agreed in phase two, would be the best thing all-round. My guess is that the majority of physical checks, such as are required, would take place at the sea ports but the customs border itself would be at the unmanned electronic frontier. That's the solution the UK always wanted but the EU and Dublin have thrown back at them.

The paragraph being quoted by rte as a guarantee, if that is all there is, has a lot of loopholes.

"In the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be no divergence from those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement."

It doesn't bring convergence on all issues, only no divergence on those rules which underpin the GFA.. presumably that is something left open to definition or interpretation at a later stage. Incidentally the link to the GFA will have been included at the UK's request in any event, because Scotland doesn't have a GFA (yet!?!!) and therefore it is easy for Westminster to argue that this is a special case.

Quite a neat solution so far.

It looks like a win for the UK to me.

They said you want to protect the GFA, therefore we will promise no divergence in Northern Ireland in respect of the limited issues covered by the GFA. This doesn't cover trade or industry or financial services etc. To keep an open border for everything else, we need a final trade agreement.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 01:30PM

Jim Allister not happy.

TUV leader @JimAllister describes "no regulatory convergence" as "a stepping stone to a united Ireland" and "NI remaining in the EU." Big issues for the DUP today. #Brexit

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 01:31PM

kowtow wrote: »

I don't like to quote my own post but I'm still betting on the position I set out below a few days back.

I think what has been (reportedly) agreed puts the kibosh on your post from a few days back. The UK is apparently accepting that even if there is no Brexit trade deal there will be no divergence etc etc. This means that the EU (and Ireland in particular) has no incentive to accept a trade deal which allows divergence, which means that if the UK wants a trade deal it has to be one which, on a continuing basis, rules out divergence. So this is not something which will endure for a transitional period only, I think. Post transitional period, there will be an open border.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 01:31PM

Enzokk wrote: »

But how do you have no border, which is the Irish position, to having an electronic one? The only way to ensure that there is no "friction" on the NI and Irish border would be for NI (or the whole UK) to stay in the customs union. It seems to me from examples that have been shown on here between countries that are in EFTA and the EU there is still holdups and checks.

First you exempt small business, apparently 80% of the trade.

Secondly you have cameras at the border only, recording movements, combined with a comprehensive electronic self-declaration regime.

Thirdly you share all info in real time with the Irish, and vice versa, and allow joint customs patrols around the border both sides.

And fourth, any stopping and checking that must be done is done at the Irish and Northern Irish ports as part of the normal security checks which take place anyway (partly because of the separate all Island agri-food regime which exists today).

The CTA takes care of immigration, nothing was going to change there anyway.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 01:34PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think what has been (reportedly) agreed puts the kibosh on your post from a few days back. The UK is apparently accepting that even if there is no Brexit trade deal there will be no divergence etc etc. This means that the EU (and Ireland in particular) has no incentive to accept a trade deal which allows divergence, which means that if the UK wants a trade deal it has to be one which, on a continuing basis, rules out divergence. So this is not something which will endure for a transitional period only, I think. Post transitional period, there will be an open border.

You could be right, but if that were the case surely we would be expecting a binding side agreement at this stage. So far as I am aware the UK position is that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed which includes money, citizens rights, etc. etc.?

Perhaps they'll do something binding?

blanch152 · 04-12-2017 01:36PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think what has been (reportedly) agreed puts the kibosh on your post from a few days back. The UK is apparently accepting that even if there is no Brexit trade deal there will be no divergence etc etc. This means that the EU (and Ireland in particular) has no incentive to accept a trade deal which allows divergence, which means that if the UK wants a trade deal it has to be one which, on a continuing basis, rules out divergence. So this is not something which will endure for a transitional period only, I think. Post transitional period, there will be an open border.

The UK accepts no divergence only on those issues of North-South co-operation under the GFA, a list I posted earlier. The agreement is silent on divergence on all other issues. What that means in terms of a hard or soft border won't be known until trade is agreed.

ectoraige · 04-12-2017 01:39PM

Deleted User wrote: »

How would say CAP funding work in the north in a scenario like that?
Would the UK government have to maintain the various schemes?

Yes, and I'm sure you'll find funding comes from the EU. I've been saying for some time that the way around the DUP will involve a 'peace funds' and other schemes that will allow EU money to flow into the north.

04-12-2017 01:41PM

I'm just wondering how much pressure the agriculture industry and farmers in NI have been putting on the DUP recently over all this. There was a farmer (from the Unionist background) on the TV over the weekend saying any imposition of a hard border was utter nonsense. Didn't Michael Gove say as well that farmers would need to prove they needed their subsistence payments to continue after Brexit?

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 01:42PM

Phillippe Lamberts again. Looks like the UK have blinked?

Belgian MEP @ph_lamberts who has seen draft joint statement tells me live on @SkyNews Britain & EU have agreed to a "special situation for Ireland" to avoid hard border. "uk government has come to terms with reality and that's a good thing".

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 01:43PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Is there a difference between regulatory alignment of trade regulations and being in the customs union?

Yes. Regulations mean the same standards for services. If they're outside the single market there will be a divergence in trade tariffs.

Zubeneschamali · 04-12-2017 01:50PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Scotland may ask for the same deal, but they won't get it.

Yes, I posted some time back that the point of asking for the same deal is not to get the same deal, it is to be told "No" by those blackguards in Westminster, to stoke sentiment for an eventual rerun of indryref and a return to the EU.

sink · 04-12-2017 01:51PM

blanch152 wrote: »

The UK accepts no divergence only on those issues of North-South co-operation under the GFA, a list I posted earlier. The agreement is silent on divergence on all other issues. What that means in terms of a hard or soft border won't be known until trade is agreed.

That's not what I'm reading.

A spokesman for Mr Varadkar said Ireland was seeking “a commitment to avoid a hard Border in the withdrawal treaty, or ensuring that the rules and regulations of the single market and customs union cannot diverge.”

source

Sierra Oscar · 04-12-2017 01:53PM

DUP suspiciously silent at the moment. I'd say they've cut a deal with May for a bumper package for Northern Ireland.

It's an astounding result for Varadkar & Coveney too if they pull this off.

J Mysterio · 04-12-2017 01:55PM

blanch152 wrote: »

It looks like a win for the UK to me.

They said you want to protect the GFA, therefore we will promise no divergence in Northern Ireland in respect of the limited issues covered by the GFA. This doesn't cover trade or industry or financial services etc. To keep an open border for everything else, we need a final trade agreement.

This seems a salient point. Could finally be some clever maneuvering from London.

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 01:55PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It's an astounding result for Varadkar &
Coveney too if they pull this off.

Press conference at 2:30 from Varadkar so hopefully we'll find out for sure then, if it's not leaked before hand.

Professor Moriarty · 04-12-2017 01:56PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, I posted some time back that the point of asking for the same deal is not to get the same deal, it is to be told "No" by those blackguards in Westminster, to stoke sentiment for an eventual rerun of indryref and a return to the EU.

Well, it's not that Scotland would be returning to the EU as it has never been a member. Some interim arrangement could be cobbled together but Scotland would go through some very hard times as the general consensus is that it would take at least four years for an independent Scotland to become a member. That's assuming that there would be no objections/veto from any existing EU members.

Samaris · 04-12-2017 01:56PM

Downing Street are saying "hold your horses, it's not agreed yet". Also snipping about RTE, so the fat lady hasn't warbled yet.

Enzokk · 04-12-2017 01:56PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Yes. Regulations mean the same standards for services. If they're outside the single market there will be a divergence in trade tariffs.

The RTE news story has the following quote,

The UK has conceded to EU negotiators that there will be no divergence of the rules covering the EU single market and customs union on the island of Ireland post Brexit, according to a draft negotiating text seen by RTÉ News.

Now the text may not say that NI will be in the customs union, but that surely reads that they will not have different rules so they will in effect be in the customs union and single market. Does that not mean there will not be a divergence in trade tariffs between NI and Ireland because NI will follow the rules of the CU and SM?

UK to make Brexit concessions over NI

Leroy42 · 04-12-2017 01:58PM

blanch152 wrote: »

The UK accepts no divergence only on those issues of North-South co-operation under the GFA, a list I posted earlier. The agreement is silent on divergence on all other issues. What that means in terms of a hard or soft border won't be known until trade is agreed.

But don't they cover agriculture, which is a major component of trade for both NI and ROI.

So if there is to be no divergence, are the UK really saying that NI will now have to operate on different rules to the rest of the UK and how will that effect their ability to compete with mainland based agri?

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 02:03PM

Jeffery Donaldson seems to be in the dark on it.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-reacts-to-brexit-draft-report-that-uk-ready-to-concede-to-irelands-demands-over-border-36377055.html

The DUP has rejected a leaked draft agreement that reportedly shows the UK and Republic of Ireland officials have tentatively agreed to keep Northern Ireland’s regulations in line with those of European Union after Brexit.

J Mysterio · 04-12-2017 02:03PM

If this is really working out, what a blinder the government have played. From ongoing preparatory background diplomatic work around the world to private Brexit negotiations and public pronouncements.

IN the EU, Ireland has seemingly also become more important than we were hitherto and may increase our share of the vote/ influence in EU by taking some of Britain's rights.

United Ireland more likely again, by far.

I'll stop myself from jumping around but signs are very good indeed.

Gerry T · 04-12-2017 02:04PM

Leroy42 wrote:

Taking back control appears only to involve the mainland.

But Europe has control??

Beechwoodspark · 04-12-2017 02:05PM

It's not agreed yet but it's looking promising.

DUP Could yet throw their toys out of the pram

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 02:06PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

DUP suspiciously silent at the moment. I'd say they've cut a deal with May for a bumper package for Northern Ireland.

It's an astounding result for Varadkar & Coveney too if they pull this off.

Sorry I can't link but Sammy Wilson on the radio said the deal will be vetoed at Stormont. Jim Allister, TUV says it amounts to a united Ireland.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 02:06PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It's not agreed yet but it's looking promising.

DUP Could yet throw their toys out of the pram

That Belfast Telegraph article seems to be suggesting they are far from being on board with it.

Leroy42 · 04-12-2017 02:07PM

Gerry T wrote: »

But Europe has control??

Not sure what this is asking or point you are making. Can you elaborate please?

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It's not agreed yet but it's looking promising.

DUP Could yet throw their toys out of the pram

There are loads of distance to go. 1st off we don't really know the veracity of the story and certainly not the details.

Second, what will the Brexiteers in May's own party make of this? 3rd, what will the DUP make of it?

May is in no position to be agreeing to any deal

Beechwoodspark · 04-12-2017 02:09PM

May is the PM. If the Tories kick up now, the talks are thrown into further delay, rancour and anarchy.

J Mysterio · 04-12-2017 02:12PM

So.. DUP don't have a Veto anyway surely?

And if Stormont is revived and legislation has to pass through.. Maybe Brokenshire can force it first?

If DUP try and drop government on this issue, potentially Labour/ others can support Conservatives on this last motion in Parliament?

Sierra Oscar · 04-12-2017 02:12PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Sorry I can't link but Sammy Wilson on the radio said the deal will be vetoed at Stormont. Jim Allister, TUV says it amounts to a united Ireland.

How can it be vetoed at Stormont if there is no Executive in place? The Stormont Assembly hasn't sat in a year. I don't see it sitting for some time now considering it pretty much suits nationalists to prevent the DUP having a veto.

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 02:14PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/937663925482590208

That made me laugh as I can imagine a lot of the hardcore Brexiters we've seen and heard across the different media may now look like they're sucking lemons.

Obviously not counting chickens before they hatch but it's looking optimistic.

Brexit discussion thread II

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