Brexit discussion thread II

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!



You do know the report was commissioned by the Traveller Movement?

Unless they are in cahoots with Downing Street it isn't being raised because of the Tories.



The Government have been crystal clear that they want to guarantee the Common Travel Area and all rights associated with it.

Anything else would cause a constitutional crisis given the status of Northern Ireland.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

First they came for the Bulgarians, but I said nothing because I wasn't a Bulgarian....

Any Irish person who voted for Brexit deserves nothing less than deportation back to the old sod. Total betrayal of our EU cousins. It would be nice to see the smugness dissolve away if the UK does turn on the Irish in Britain next.

The Irish traveller community in GB have the same status as you Solo. If they see a legal problem then it'll be one for you too. I expect they would have kept their head below the parapet if there was nothing to worry about.

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

I'm not worried in the slightest for them or for me. The Government have been crystal clear on this.

I just try not to jump at every bit of noise.

Edit: the fact that you think people should be rounded up for their political views says more about you than anyone else.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

This government of flip-floppers have been crystal clear on no Irish border and leaving the single market. Incompatible position. The commons select committee report says the same. God bless your faith in this government (and all future ones).

I see some talking about the Irish government overplaying their hand in the negotiations. I find it hard to understand this point of view. From what I can see ireland were quiet publicly but with a position made clear at the start but the British clearly completely ignored us and outright were hoping to use the north as a bargaining chip to get a FTA for the UK based on what they thought they would get for NI. The only way to counter this was to make it a much bigger deal publicly and spell it out for them. The only criticism I could make is that it might have been better to never suggest keeping the UK or NI in the customs union/single market as a fix but rather leave the British come to that conclusion. However I can see why the Irish Government felt they had to when the British were clearly not understanding the situation and the British media and politicians were just outright lying.

How will the news of this come?
Is there a press conference arranged?

flaneur wrote: »

News of?

Of whether a deal/agreement to proceed to next stage has been reached.

I think the schedule is something along the lines of:

Background of Continuing negotiations between the UK, Ireland and EU.

PM May to phone Varadkar this evening to discuss the negotiations.

Early tomorrow the Irish cabinet is to meet to discuss progress (or lack of progress).

Tomorrow PM May meets Juncker for a working lunch and discussion.

On Wednesday, in Brussels there will be confirmation of whether the negotiations have progressed sufficiently for the UK to be considered for the next phase.

Tusk confirmed on Friday that the proposal regarding the border has to be acceptable to ROI before any progress can be confirmed.

Samaris wrote: »

Tbh, negotiating with a Johnson/Anyone group would be worse. The current group are bad enough, picking the wrong battles to fight, ignoring battles that they must fight and attacking their allies half the time. Johnson would do all that while being Boris fecking Johnson and god help Britain if they are to rely on his expertise and common sense for their future. The man is a buffoon with an even greater lack of understanding of what the EU is and how it works than the rest of them.

That has been a millstone around the necks of the British negotiators so far, a complete lack of understanding of their negotiating opponants and how they work by those in charge of Brexit. And worse, a critical lack of trying to either.

the fact that the uk could only attract one proven negotiator tells its own story

Interesting report by Tommie Gorman on our four demands:

1. Transition period for any new arrangement.
2. Enshrining of GFA in any future treaty.
3. Preservation of CTA.
4. Maintenance of soft border, or continued NI implementation of SM and CU rules.

Brexit timetable in jeopardy as Theresa May fails to reach deal on Irish border ahead of EU deadline


A headline in the Torygraph

Did the hardy boys (Mogg et al), think that they have pulled a great stunt by landing a new list of red lines on May's desk on the eve of her going to Brussels?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/03/tory-brexiters-set-new-red-lines-over-ecj-and-free-movement

Sending a clear signal they prefer a, No Deal result.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He is not breaking the charter so I don't think so. I'll bring it up with the other mods. In any case, let's get back on topic.

Thanks. I'm not the only one that has brought it up.

It's not needed to be formal like that. If we all did that the thread would be unreadable.

Thanks.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

UK must hang tough on the Irish border. They are right to hold the line that it is linked to the trade solution. If they can somehow fudge that point along, it is the key to them getting a truly good trade deal for the UK - the have the cake and eat it scenario. If they manage it, then they will have cornered the EU as the baddie in piece - the EU will be the ones to put up a border on this island if they dont give the UK free access to the single market. It will have handed the gun that the UK currently has pointed at its own temple, to the EU, who will then have it pointed at theirs. So what ya gona do now EU - pull the trigger ? Smart strategy from the UK in fairness.

I can't agree that it is a good strategy. Because everyone's back is against a wall and Britain has most to lose.

Ireland loses out both economically and socially if there's a hard border on the island. It is the worst case scenario. NI loses out on the same as well and the DUP propping up the Tories is a complication. Britain loses out to some extent, mostly through the damage it will cause NI. It will mostly stay out of the voting public's eye, however, although the added drain on funds might tell.

Ireland also loses out if there's a no-deal with Britain. Britain loses out badly if there's a no-deal.

Everyone loses out if they break WTO rules. Worst case for Britain scenario - starting out in trade at WTO rules, with a hard reset on all trading relationships (there are some rules about shocks and inertia that may allow for temporary continuance but with whacking great tariffs suddenly attached), no deal with the EU, 27 pissed off other countries, countless more -annoyed- countries given the confusion of the whole situation so far, sharp internal and external supply issues and a wide open border as a major ongoing breach of WTO regulations. The EU would also suffer, facing renegotiation with many other world countries over quotas and a major WTO breach that Ireland will have to fix. Still, while costly, it is in a better place than Britain.

In that scenario, Ireland hopes to save a customs union, at least with NI, pushes for sea border. It leaves some things up in the air, such as the thorny question of what goods NI actually ends up with the right to buy and sell on the island. That or Britain staying in the customs union are best case scenarios. Britain staying in wholesale would take a cataclysmic change or a second referendum in my view.

Britain is trying to pull this forward to leverage it in trade talks. The question of the border certainly shapes how trade will be carried out. This can be taken into account. But that just means that Britain should decide what its direction actually is and be able to manouver events towards that goal. They've climbed down on the divorce bill and apparently citizens is all sorted, in the hopes of the EU either just wanting this to end or being desperate enough for a deal to abandon Ireland. In doing so, they've made it almost impossible for it to happen. Ireland can and will veto if there's no solution put forward, although the EU's support means they will not have to. If Britain plunges out, that will force a speedy reconsideration, rather than Ireland losing out badly and Britain getting everything it wants. The other 27 countries have been in complete solidarity so far and the leadership has been publicly unwavering in support. There's also the narrative that the EU doesn't care about small countries, etc. The EU bloc loses out if it all goes pear-shaped, but it loses out worse in terms of internal stability if it proves the narrative and feeds anti-EU discontent, while not achieving anything of substance as Ireland would veto anyway.

DUP is a bit of a wild card. I'm not certain how directly it will affect things if they pull their support on the rumoured move towards a NI CU. There is also the argument that pulling their support risks Brexit and it's that or a hard border, which they have been publicly advocating against so far. Not sure anyone wants to be the first to do otherwise. Still, while it informs Britain's move, it is irrelevant to the others.

The ball is in Britain's court. Everyone's position is known apart from Britain's. There were no signs that this strategy was working throughout the autumn, bar the Irish question just not being answered. May's got a day to square the circle and more fool her if she chose to have the DUP as her ruler.

Maybe I'll eat my words tomorrow/Wednesday, but I don't think I will.