Brexit discussion thread II

flutered · 02-12-2017 07:27PM

blanch152 wrote: »

The problem for Sinn Fein is that whenever they open their mouth on Brexit, all that a FG or FF politician has to do is tell them to take their seats in Westminister to explain the problem from the inside and agree a deal to bring back a devolved government that can talks about it like Nicola Sturgeon.

Their refusal to do either costs them credibility on the issue,

not really, they campaigned on a not to sit in westminister ticket, always have done so, if they took their seats this would be thrown at them, fast

axer · 02-12-2017 08:13PM

Some more excellent analysis from Tony Connelly on where things are at here :
https://www.rte.ie/amp/924399/
Phase 2 not starting until at least March means businesses will have to start the process of implementing their contingency plans for a no deal - those jobs moving will really put the fire under the UK during trade talks weakening their hand even further.

flutered · 02-12-2017 08:42PM

blackcard wrote: »

Do you think if you went to Rome, Madrid, Hamburg, Toulouse, Porto, or any European city, and asked to name to identify any issues affecting the EU, they would name Ireland as an issue. We are a tiny country at the periphery of Europe and are going to be sacrificed for the overall good.

did not the spanish premier tell the bbc this morning that spain agreed and would continue to agree with irelands decision

Tropheus · 02-12-2017 08:42PM

I can see the British Government falling over this. The DUP support for Brexit is opportunistic. It is in their interest to keep the North as separate as possible from the South. The UK being outside the EU drives an even bigger wedge between North and South.

I can't see the DUP accepting a sea border as they will see that as a step closer to a united Ireland. I can't see the Irish Government accepting a hard border. If the British Government try and go with the sea border, they'll lose the DUP support and trigger a general election. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

flutered · 02-12-2017 08:44PM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Can people not jaysus t'a fook not bloody to sense understand that once the UK are not in the single market that ROI will be 100% responsible for securing the EU border as per Lisbon Treaty. We are being led astray by Irish government official muppets thinking we are thick.

it is up to the uk to control its borders according to wto rules

steddyeddy · 02-12-2017 08:47PM

Tropheus wrote: »

I can see the British Government falling over this. The DUP support for Brexit is opportunistic. It is in their interest to keep the North as separate as possible from the South. The UK being outside the EU drives an even bigger wedge between North and South.

I can't see the DUP accepting a sea border as they will see that as a step closer to a united Ireland. I can't see the Irish Government accepting a hard border. If the British Government try and go with the sea border, they'll lose the DUP support and trigger a general election. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

I don't equate a sea border with a united Ireland. If anything it postpones a united Ireland. A sea border = staying in the single market which is a boost for the NI economy IMHO.

Leaving the single market cripples the already dying NI economy and makes a united Ireland much more likely.

LeinsterDub · 02-12-2017 09:02PM

flutered wrote: »

it is up to the uk to control its borders according to wto rules

It's also our border.

Jayop · 02-12-2017 09:08PM

Carb wrote: »

Thought so. Can I ask if there is a prevailing view (if one exists) outside the DUP on hard/soft border, staying in the customs union etc. I'm not on twitter so have only really followed the main news outlets in the UK and Ireland which are consumed at this point with the Irish government and EU versus the UK government.

I honestly don't know Carb. The few Unionists I full own on Twitter are left wing people who just happen to be Unionists and they are disgusted with the DUP for a load of reasons. They were anti brexit from the start. 44 percent in the north voted for it and you'd have to imaging that over 90 percent of those were Unionists. Given that I can't imagine they're too upset with the DUP stance.

Jayop · 02-12-2017 09:18PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

I don't equate a sea border with a united Ireland. If anything it postpones a united Ireland. A sea border = staying in the single market which is a boost for the NI economy IMHO.

Leaving the single market cripples the already dying NI economy and makes a united Ireland much more likely.

I've left the politics forum for a while so bar a few more extreme people I can't remember who's who. You'd be of the Unionist viewpoint yeah?

So what's your views now on the best solution for the border and is your view shared? Personally NI have a chance at the best of both worlds here that they would be idiots to pass over. Stay in the customs union and in the UK with a sea border. It's going to cause no inconvenience to anyone traveling over as most airlines require a passport anyway and while the lorries are going to the docks they can be checked then seems so logical and in no way would weaken the union. In fact it could give the economy in the north a major boost that could weaken a lot of nationalists resolve for a ui

Jayop · 02-12-2017 09:19PM

I think I have you mixed up for someone else actually.

Jayop · 02-12-2017 09:22PM

Last post. On SF staying quiet. They're really not, follow a few of them on Twitter and they're always on about brexit, but because what they're saying is the company line it's not really newsworthy. Because the DUP are talking unqualified nonsense it's big news and it's also directed towards the southern government and the not just ni nationalists for a change so that's an even bigger story.

steddyeddy · 02-12-2017 09:30PM

Jayop wrote: »

I've left the politics forum for a while so bar a few more extreme people I can't remember who's who. You'd be of the Unionist viewpoint yeah?

So what's your views now on the best solution for the border and is your view shared? Personally NI have a chance at the best of both worlds here that they would be idiots to pass over. Stay in the customs union and in the UK with a sea border. It's going to cause no inconvenience to anyone traveling over as most airlines require a passport anyway and while the lorries are going to the docks they can be checked then seems so logical and in no way would weaken the union. In fact it could give the economy in the north a major boost that could weaken a lot of nationalists resolve for a ui

I'd be nationalist. I personally think that NI should stay in the single market. It would be complete idiocy to do otherwise.

Jayop · 02-12-2017 09:37PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

I'd be nationalist. I personally think that NI should stay in the single market. It would be complete idiocy to do otherwise.

Ya I remembered you were just after I posted that. Soz.

Would love to hear from a proper NI Unionist here about their views. I think the few Unionists that post here largely claim to be from the south iirc.

Kermit.de.frog · 02-12-2017 10:00PM

According to Tony Connelly's piece on the border, as of Friday, the sides are nowhere near close to an agreement.

Tropheus · 02-12-2017 10:06PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

I don't equate a sea border with a united Ireland. If anything it postpones a united Ireland. A sea border = staying in the single market which is a boost for the NI economy IMHO.

Leaving the single market cripples the already dying NI economy and makes a united Ireland much more likely.

That's possibly a logical way to look at it. However, from a DUP perspective, that will be separating them from the rest of the UK which they won't tolerate.

steddyeddy · 02-12-2017 10:06PM

Jayop wrote: »

Ya I remembered you were just after I posted that. Soz.

Would love to hear from a proper NI Unionist here about their views. I think the few Unionists that post here largely claim to be from the south iirc.

The embarrassment of Brexit and the DUP seems to have made the hardcore Brexiters go into hiding on the site in the last few weeks.

A poll actually suggests that unionists would be fine with a sea border illustrating that the DUP don't speak for unionists.

Poll: https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2017/11/28/news/poll-suggests-unionists-would-be-content-with-irish-sea-border-after-brexit-1197975/

steddyeddy · 02-12-2017 10:08PM

Tropheus wrote: »

That's possibly a logical way to look at it. However, from a DUP perspective, that will be separating them from the rest of the UK which they won't tolerate.

But that's utter stupidity. It is different from the rest of the UK. To deny different is having the blinkers on.

Jayop · 02-12-2017 10:11PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

But that's utter stupidity. It is different from the rest of the UK. To deny different is having the blinkers on.

They're fine with being different from the UK when it suits them. Gay marriage, abortion, corporation tax, the rhi scheme to name a few.

Tropheus · 02-12-2017 10:14PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

But that's utter stupidity. It is different from the rest of the UK. To deny different is having the blinkers on.

It's the DUP we're talking about here. Logic isn't one of their strong points.

FrancieBrady · 02-12-2017 10:31PM

Tropheus wrote: »

It's the DUP we're talking about here. Logic isn't one of their strong points.

I have a feeling the DUP might not mind too much to be beaten on this. They know if they go out with the rest of the UK it will do massive damage. Why else would Arlene have been looking for special treatment nearly the morning after the Brexit vote surprised them.
If they lose this they can shore up their vote by claiming they are being ignored in favour of nationalism etc etc.
'Never Never Never, well OK maybe'. (The DUP thrive on the siege mentality.)

But essentially, they won't be carrying the blame for an unmitigated disaster.

FrancieBrady · 02-12-2017 11:07PM

Interesting video here. Didn't know about the up to 1952 thing.
http://www.thedetail.tv/articles/the-sea-border-that-s-there-already

Tropheus · 02-12-2017 11:19PM

Stop the press. I think we have a solution.

Although the Express mods aren't as vigilant as usual:

Samaris · 02-12-2017 11:28PM

He certainly sounds like he's from one.

What is the great solution though? Don't make me wade through the Express..

Tropheus · 02-12-2017 11:33PM

Samaris wrote: »

He certainly sounds like he's from one.

What is the great solution though? Don't make me wade through the Express..

I didn't actually read it. I just scrolled to the comments to amuse myself. JRM for Prime Minister is the general tone. If the Express thinks his solution is BRILLIANT, then you know it's not worth reading.

03-12-2017 12:12AM

'Brilliant' solution is the same one we've been hearing for months - ignore international laws and have a porous border.

The solution was actually set out to the committee by the head of HMRC, on Wednesday, when he said that there was absolutely no need for hard border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland, he could implement Government policy and there are declarations that people could make on customs, the same way they do with VAT, and he had no problem with implementing Government policy.

“Therefore, it is up to the European Union and the Republic of Ireland if they wanted to impose their own hard border, but the UK wasn’t going to, didn’t need to, and there is your solution.”

Which, as always, is nonsense.

03-12-2017 12:13AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Without Single Market membership (EEA at a minimum) there is no non hard border.

I wonder how many times this will need to be pointed out.

Heck, even the border that a 'in-EEA NI' would have is harder than today's.

Ardent brexiteers (but honest merchants) @ eureferendum.com flagged this issue up before the vote was even called. Here's an article from pre referendum on the topic http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86001

The DUP are walking NI into that scenario, unbelievably willingly!

.

whatever_ · 03-12-2017 12:37AM

As an Irish resident and UK citizen who voted for Brexit, I think that the one-sided portrayal of Brexit in the Irish media before and since the referendum says far more about the Irish psyche than any polite and reasonable Englishman would ever spell out to you. However I would like to make a few points regarding the border debate.

That leading members of Sinn Fein should be calling the British Government "delusional", "living in cloud cuckoo land" etc. should surprise nobody. I understand that Leo Varadkar's tough talking over the border issue may have far more to do with keeping these populists at bay here at home than anything else.
However, if he really believes that there is a threat of a "hard border" then should he not be busy building Ireland's infrastructure ? Currently all our gas is imported from Britain. Why is there still no pipeline to France ? Why are our exports to mainland Europe sent across the border instead of directly to France ? Answer: our lack of investment in infrastructure means that the British route is cheaper. And don’t even get me started on Metro North (a major reason why we are unable attract any sports tournaments or European agencies here).

I am aware that the British press are reporting the border issue as a "done deal" and I know that this is not yet the case. However, this is looking very good for the Conservatives. I know both sides in this have compromised, but look at the likely outcome. No hard border, no customs union, more powers dumped on the NI Executive, and they get to blame Varadkar if things go wrong or if the Unionists get upset. It’s not really a compromise at all. It’s not even a win- win. It’s a win-win-win-win all the way for the Conservative Government.

I spoke about the Irish psyche. Here's an insight into the English psyche. You can't really be English and of a certain age without harbouring a deep respect for Jeremy Corbyn. We feel the same way about the Queen. But that does not mean that we will allow either of them to have any real power. If the EU cannot reach a deal with the UK then they will be dealing with a far tougher Johnson / Davis led government.

Either way, there will be no hard border unless the EU impose it. Like Hong Kong, this is starting to look like a triumph for British diplomacy. That was called “one country , two systems” .This is looking more like “two countries, one system”.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-12-2017 12:37AM

Sunday Times tomorrow reporting that chances of a deal are no more than 50 - 50 and there is still a long way to go to get a deal.

Sunday Independent saying they have details of an agreed Irish/EU text but May expected to come under pressure from DUP.

Both papers state the deal is that there will be no divergence in regulations between north/south.

Again it's the sea border for slow learners...

Samaris · 03-12-2017 12:42AM

And Rees-Mogg is the favourite to follow May. God help them. DUP might like him though.

ancapailldorcha · 03-12-2017 12:49AM

Samaris wrote: »

And Rees-Mogg is the favourite to follow May. God help them. DUP might like him though.

Probably though he is a committed Catholic. They might be willing to overlook that, possibly for a price.

Brexit discussion thread II

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