Brexit discussion thread II

An Ciarraioch · 26-11-2017 11:18PM

jm08 wrote: »

Informative poll conducted by Queens and published on sluggerotoole.

Questions asked:

‘People should be prepared to accept border controls between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, if this is agreed in the Brexit negotiations between the Government and the EU’.
Overall, 49% agreed with this, and 39% disagreed (with 12% neither agreeing or disagreeing).

‘After the UK leaves the EU, there should be free movement across the Irish border, as at present, but border controls between the island of Ireland and Great Britain’.

Overall, 64% agreed and 25% disagreed (with 11% undecided).

The survey was designed by QUB researchers, Professors Coakley and Garry, and the fieldwork was conducted by Ipsos MORI between 7th and 27th September 2017, consisting of 1,015 interviews with members of the public.

More info here:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/11/26/exclusive-poll-unionist-supporters-content-with-east-west-post-brexit-border-controls/

Most interesting aspect is that a clear majority of unionists agreed with both proposals.

J Mysterio · 26-11-2017 11:23PM

Water John wrote: »

The mention of Mo, brings the best of politics to mind. Sadly, very few of that quality in the present UK Parliament.
At least LB have stated that CU and Single Market are not off the table or red lines for them.

The only reasonable, responsible voice I can hear is Ken Clarke.

J Mysterio · 26-11-2017 11:36PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/934821820859068417

Lovely

MEP. These are the type of charmers the English were sending to the EU parliament. Can you imagine.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-11-2017 11:43PM

Nody wrote: »

Solo for starters has stated it multiple times on this thread as justification of Brexit because EU is somehow holding UK back in the area with China, India etc...

'll say it again.

In order to save each family in the UK a fiver a year on cheaper Chinese shoe imports the UK vetoed the EU banning China dumping below cost steel here.

- that shows how good a deal the UK will get from China
- I'm guessing the EU can put the barriers back up when the UK leave,
- this won't help what's left of the UK steel industry

What else has the UK blocked in the EU , and how will it be affected now the veto has gone ?

Capt'n Midnight · 26-11-2017 11:45PM

kowtow wrote: »

Imagine that.

I reckon the UK would have to give them some extra-ordinary tax treatments to make that worthwhile.

Good thing May has a magic money tree.

The car makers are already lining up for bailouts under threat of pulling out.

26-11-2017 11:48PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

MEP. These are the type of charmers the English were sending to the EU parliament. Can you imagine.

*cough, cough*

Ming

Anthracite · 26-11-2017 11:50PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

That's one way to spin it.

What's actually happening is
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-immigration-curry-industry-theresa-may-betrayal-a7398196.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/third-of-curry-houses-could-close-as-tough-immigration-rules-block-chefs-coming-to-uk-a6997831.htmlHow many local curry restaurants do you know that don't do takeaway ?

This is on top of tougher rules and higher costs on Indian students in recent years too. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37891734

Aren't we talking about a putative free trade deal with India, rather than the current situation?

ancapailldorcha · 27-11-2017 12:08AM

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

*cough, cough*

Ming

No more nonsense like this please.

J Mysterio · 27-11-2017 12:39AM

Good read:

I went to the DUP Conference and what I found was disturbingly familiar – this is our new Ukip - Tom Peck for English Independent.

FrancieBrady · 27-11-2017 01:18AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Most interesting aspect is that a clear majority of unionists agreed with both proposals.

Those are incredible results really.

Leonard Hofstadter · 27-11-2017 01:19AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Good read:

I went to the DUP Conference and what I found was disturbingly familiar – this is our new Ukip - Tom Peck for English Independent.

That wouldn't be an uncommon sentiment in the 'mainland' - the English know precious little about the North and what they do shocks and appals them (thanks to the DUP). There was a lot of shock and bewilderment that the DUP was what represents Unionism and keeping the UK together given their socially conservative views and some resentment at the North getting the £1 billion or whatever sweetheart deal it was (although I note the money hasn't been paid yet).

The Tories might be getting their knickers in a twist about a sea border but everyone else wouldn't care in the slightest.

Whichever side of the border you're from, we're all considered to be 'Irish' anyway, I've lost count of the number of times I've been asked am I from 'Northern Ireland' or 'Southern Ireland'.

Peregrinus · 27-11-2017 02:40AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Those are incredible results really.

"Incredible" in the sense that you doubt they can be correct?

Peregrinus · 27-11-2017 02:50AM

kowtow wrote: »

. . . Only History will tell us whether the British Electorate was right or wrong in their decision to leave the EU, but it is - and was - their decision. This thread is the most shocking example of closed mindedness - a continuous stream of invective aimed at some imaginary blue collar uneducated or misled voter and those who would mislead him - along with accusations (and predictions) of racism, xenophobia, and absolutely anything seized on in a quest to somehow prove the Electorate wrong in the decision they made.

Absolutely nowhere can I find an example of the sort of open minded soul searching or thoughtful debate which might (1) make the EU a better place or draw any kind of lesson for the future from Brexit or (2) suggest any practical and mutually acceptable arrangements for the UK, Ireland, and EU going forward which might benefit all of us together. This despite the undisputed fact that Ireland will suffer more economically the further the UK is isolated in the years to come.

Brexit was a democratic decision, and the UK is a sovereign nation. For a country which fought hard for sovereignty, and professes to love democracy, we don't seem to be showing much respect for either if this debate is anything to go by.

Oh, come on, Kowtow, have you been living under a rock for the past sixteen months?

Lots of people have tried to come up with suggestions as to how the UK could leave the EU, as mandated by the referendum, in ways that minimise damage to the Irish peace process and to Ireland. And every single suggestion is immediately shot down from the British side with appeals to a any of a number of "red lines". Every time someone tries to come up with a solution that respects the red lines already announced, a new one can be announced. The red lines are beyond debate, discussion or interrogation because they are mystically deemed to be an inexorable requirement of the Brexit vote, despite the fact that none of the red lines appeared on the ballot paper, or were articulated in the campaign before the referendum. Designating something as a "red line" seems to be a tactic to avoid having to mount a rational justification for it (and may in fact be seen as a tacit admission that it can't be rationally justified).

How about this for a red line? "The UK will not leave the EU in any way which would threaten harm to the Irish peace process." If you can explain why that isn't a red line adopted by the UK, I think we'd all like to hear it.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-11-2017 04:41AM

https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/934987098649710592

Good to see some support from US congress...

27-11-2017 05:02AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/934987098649710592

Good to see some support from US congress...

Well now that is particularly interesting, "stateside" is watching too.

Have we as many allies as we had 20/30 years ago though?

Kermit.de.frog · 27-11-2017 05:11AM

Irish diplomacy is strong in US, they will be working the channels.

FrancieBrady · 27-11-2017 08:44AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

"Incredible" in the sense that you doubt they can be correct?

No, incredible that they are variance with what Unionist politicians are saying.

It backs up what I suspected and said here, that unionists are practical and concerned with their own prosperity first, in the main. And that the unionist political class, namely Arlene and the DUP called Brexit all wrong.

Enzokk · 27-11-2017 09:20AM

Interesting article about people regretting their vote now and how it will not really change anything in the short term. I think this is in line with a lot of comments from posters here that the pain will have to be felt before people change their minds. In fact even in that case it will not be enough for someone to admit they are wrong.

‘I thought I’d put in a protest vote’: the people who regret voting leave

Now the stories of those that regret their vote doesn't interest me as much in the story as I am sure you will be able to find remain voters that regret their vote as well. The interesting parts for me is the poll that is showing a shift in attitude on whether the decision was correct, and the reasons why people are sticking to their opinion. There is still however no majority of opinion of "going against the will of the people" but it seems that this could be due to people hoping to forget about Brexit and the EU debate and just wanting to put it behind them, come hell or high water.

Some of the interesting parts at least to me in the story:

In fact, the figures have remained stubbornly static. In April, the British Election Study surveyed almost 28,000 voters and found that 11% of leave voters expressed regret – but so did 7% of remain voters. While opposition to Brexit is hardening among remainers – according to YouGov, the number who believed the referendum result should be honoured plummeted from 51% to 28% between June and October – movement from leave to remain is slow. In October, the proportion of voters who felt that Britain had made the wrong choice reached a new high of 47% versus 42% (the rest weren’t sure). But that’s not yet enough to change the political calculus. However the question is phrased, the level of regret remains consistent with that following the 2015 election. The people featured in this article are a minority.

“It’s not that nobody is changing their minds,” explains Joe Twyman, co-founder of YouGov. “Very few are, and when they are, they’re cancelling each other out, so the aggregate level change is very small.”

For experts in voter behaviour or cognitive science, however, this is unsurprising. Humans do not instinctively enjoy changing their minds. Admitting that you were wrong, especially when the original decision has huge ramifications, is a painful and destabilising experience that the brain tends to resist. Research into this kind of denial has given us concepts such as cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias.

“When you have a strong view about something, you’re likely to reject information that’s contrary to your view, reject the source of the information and rationalise the information,” says Jane Green, professor of political science at the University of Manchester and co-director of the British Election Study. “We select information that’s consistent with our views, because it’s more comfortable and reaffirming.” In fact, it’s physically pleasurable. Some recent studies of confirmation bias indicate that consuming information that supports our beliefs actually produces a dopamine rush.

I think this has been evident on here where information that may impact or change your opinion on a matter is waved away in that it doesn't matter or is not relevant.

For most Britons, Brexit is a phoney war that barely touches their lives. “From a personal point of view, things haven’t changed, so there’s no reason for them to change their minds,” YouGov’s Twyman says. “It’s like Vietnam during the Kennedy years. It’s this thing that you watch on TV but you think doesn’t affect you, and it won’t affect you until it’s your son getting the draft papers. I’ve been doing this job for 17 years and I’m never surprised by the lack of attention that most people pay to politics. We know that a lot of people voted to leave the EU so they wouldn’t have to discuss Brexit again, little knowing that we’re going to have to do nothing but that.”...

...Twyman expects to see serious movement only when a final deal is presented to the public. “Seventy per cent of people believe that in theory we should leave the EU,” he says, citing a recent poll in which only 32% actively wanted to thwart Brexit. “But what if that’s 10 groups of 7% or 20 groups of 3.5%, each group with its own particular requirements? And what if the deal that’s struck appeals to only one of those groups? There’s huge potential for change.”

At the same time opinion is changing on whether to just go ahead with the referendum result or to try and either reverse it. This is down to Remain voters believing the result should be honored that is slowly dropping.

Brexit%20direction%20Remain%20change-01.png

Brexit%20direction%20Remain%20change-01.png

But at the moment Brexiters are safe in the knowledge the numbers are still with them. I think this is why we will see a hard Brexit as more likely, those that want to leave the EU will see the momentum start changing and will know that with a extended negotiation the negative effects will be shown even more and it will make a u-turn more likely the longer the negotiations go on for. They will have one chance to exit the EU and it is now, before the full blown effects are known and while people still cling to the belief that they were right to vote to leave the EU.

This story is based on the opinion poll that was done by Yougov at the end of October. I apologise if it has been discussed in detail before.

As we get further and further away from the referendum itself more people might start to think it is legitimate to try to stop Brexit, and eventually there could be a majority that want to stop Brexit.

But for the moment the public still believe that Brexit means Brexit.

There has been a shift against Brexit, but the public still think we should go ahead with it

flaneur · 27-11-2017 09:52AM

The UK Government would probably want to be very careful about how it handles Irish relations as there are few things that come across worse than the bellicose, anti Irish rhetoric that is starting to spew from certain English nationalists.

It will do them a lot of damage in the USA, as there's a big Irish contingent on both sides of the house and actually lots of them in the current Trump administration. While US domestic politics is very partisan, a lot of people with Irish heritage of all political hues have folk memories of the bad old days and have ancestors who had to flee to the US precisely because of this kind of thing in the 19th century.

Also in Europe, I’m already hearing expressions of shock at some of the press and social media ranting.

If they ratchet up the paddywhackery, they’ll just cause a major diplomatic issue and a total loss of sympathy in Brussels. It’s easy to forget that Europe is largely made up of small countries and countries that have had to deal with unpleasantness from larger neighboring countries over the years. Most will take a dim view of that kind of ranting nationalism targeting a neighboring country.

Many European governments are also centrist with a lot in common with FG in their outlook and are up against domestic far right wing parties, extreme nationalism and xenophobic movements and are putting the current UK rhetoric into the same category as the likes of Marine le Pen, Wilders and the AfD etc. It’s in none of their interests to be seen to be soft on this kind of jingoism.

There are few things that look worse than the UK starting to look like a pompous bully.

Also I think Ireland has a lot more soft power than the British realise. They tend to see us only as we relate to them and not be aware of the fact that we’ve a large informal global networks and very warm diplomatic relations with a lot of countries and in Europe, English nationalism tends to have a bad name - all the jingoism in the media and politics gets noticed and the football hooligans have been very poor ambassadors over the decades.

They’re really picking a very stupid fight if they start turning this on us.

solodeogloria · 27-11-2017 10:04AM

flaneur wrote: »

The UK Government would probably want to be very careful about how it handles Irish relations as there are few things that come across worse than the bellicose, anti Irish rhetoric that is starting to spew from certain English nationalists.

It will do them a lot of damage in the USA, as there's a big Irish contingent on both sides of the house and actually lots of them in the current Trump administration. While US domestic politics is very partisan, a lot of people with Irish heritage of all political hues have folk memories of the bad old days and have ancestors who had to flee to the US precisely because of this kind of thing in the 19th century.

Also in Europe, I’m already hearing expressions of shock at some of the press and social media ranting.

If they ratchet up the paddywhackery, they’ll just cause a major diplomatic issue and a total loss of sympathy in Brussels.

There are few things that look worse than the UK starting to look like a pompous bully.

Good morning!

I don't think the UK's position could be perceived as bullying. Their stated intent is to keep the border open. Discussions towards that end could open if phase 2 is given the green light.

If it isn't the only interpretation that could be given is that the Irish government and the EU don't want to make progress on the issue. This is again why I feel the pressure is being misdirected. It should be on the EU to move forward.

I hope progress can be made, but I personally can't stand much the desperation amongst some to find some reason why some people are determined to find "paddywhackery" (what a word!) where it doesn't exist.

The British press are entitled to criticise the stupidity that is emerging from the Irish government on this issue.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

flaneur · 27-11-2017 10:06AM

I’m seeing plenty of it emerging.

As for calling the Irish government position stupid?!

Compared to what? “Brexit means Brexit” We have no plan?

I would also add the DUP’s image in Continental Europe is not good. They’re, correctly, understood to be very far right and from a background of religious extremism and ultra nationalism. If you google them you typically hit images of Ian Paisley and things like the ranting at the Pope during the European Parliament visit etc etc etc or modern hardline views on things like same sex marriage.

Leroy42 · 27-11-2017 10:11AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

I don't think the UK's position could be perceived as bullying. Their stated intent is to keep the border open. Discussions towards that end could open if phase 2 is given the green light.

Since the UK are changing the process that was agreed to, ie phase 1 being the the settlement and border, what should the UK give in return for that?

Ireland are looking for a written confirmation that no border will exist after Brexit, which according to you is exactly what the UK what.

So shouldn't they give that commitment in writing?

solodeogloria · 27-11-2017 10:13AM

flaneur wrote: »

I’m seeing plenty of it emerging.

As for calling the Irish government position stupid?!

Compared to what? “Brexit means Brexit” We have no plan?

I would also add the DUP’s image in Continental Europe is not good. They’re, correctly, understood to be very far right and from a background of religious extremism and ultra nationalism.

Good morning!

Again, the DUP's responsibility is to represent the unionist constituency that they represent. I don't think they care much about how they are thought of. This is why I find that some of the concern for Northern Ireland on this thread is faux concern. It's only with consideration to the standpoint of nationalists that it is expressed. A sea border is a huge concern to unionists who want to see their standing in the United Kingdom maintained.

The Irish government position is mindblowingly stupid because we all know that the UK aren't going to agree to membership of the customs union and the single market at a national level or a sub-national level. Therefore the only thing that the Irish Government are doing is blocking discussions on this issue and on the wider trade links with the UK that they heavily depend on.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Leroy42 · 27-11-2017 10:13AM

flaneur wrote: »

I’m seeing plenty of it emerging.

As for calling the Irish government position stupid?!

Compared to what? “Brexit means Brexit” We have no plan?

I would also add the DUP’s image in Continental Europe is not good. They’re, correctly, understood to be very far right and from a background of religious extremism and ultra nationalism. If you google them you typically hit images of Ian Paisley and things like the ranting at the Pope during the European Parliament visit etc etc etc or modern hardline views on things like same sex marriage.

The imagine of the DUP in the UK is not good either. Remember the surprise in the media when May began talks with the DUP on just how right wing they actually were?

Schorpio · 27-11-2017 10:24AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

The Irish government position is mindblowingly stupid because we all know that the UK aren't going to agree to membership of the customs union and the single market at a national level or a sub-national level. Therefore the only thing that the Irish Government are doing is blocking discussions on this issue and on the wider trade links with the UK that they heavily depend on.

Solo - I don't think you're in the best position to refer to anything the Irish government does as 'mindblowingly stupid'. People in glass houses and all that. I could very easily refer to quite a number of things the UK government has done which I believe are mindblowingly stupid (not least calling a referendum in the first place), but I think we are all keeping this discussion respectful (or trying to anyway).

I fail to see how you don't see a contradiction in what you say. "the UK aren't going to agree to membership of the customs union and the single market at a national level or a sub-national level", but they also don't want a border, so please allow us move to the next phase of talks without providing any commitments. Those two viewpoints directly oppose each other. Also, the DUP are "in power", and they really wouldn't mind at all if the border were to reappear. How can you not understand the Irish government's concern here?!

We don't want a border. But it's important that we don't commit to that. So that we won't put up a border. But it's important that we can. So that we won't.

flaneur · 27-11-2017 10:25AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

The imagine of the DUP in the UK is not good either. Remember the surprise in the media when May began talks with the DUP on just how right wing they actually were?

True, but, worryingly not a bad fit for aspects of the far right of the Tories, aspects of English nationalism and much of the tabloid press, at least in terms of bellicose jingoism.

I don’t think that’s really very representative of modern Britain, but it’s who they have up front and centre.

I’m sure Borris Johnson as foreign minister will smooth it over with his astounding diplomatic skills.

It will be a “titanic success!”

solodeogloria · 27-11-2017 10:30AM

Schorpio wrote: »

Solo - I don't think you're in the best position to refer to anything the Irish government does as 'mindblowingly stupid'. People in glass houses and all that. I could very easily refer to quite a number of things the UK government has done which I believe are mindblowingly stupid (not least calling a referendum in the first place), but I think we are all keeping this discussion respectful (or trying to anyway).

I fail to see how you don't see a contradiction in what you say. "the UK aren't going to agree to membership of the customs union and the single market at a national level or a sub-national level", but they also don't want a border, so please allow us move to the next phase of talks without providing any commitments. Those two viewpoints directly oppose each other. Also, the DUP are "in power", and they really wouldn't mind at all if the border were to reappear. How can you not understand the Irish government's concern here?!

We don't want a border. But it's important that we don't commit to that. So that we won't put up a border. But it's important that we can. So that we won't.

Good morning!

Again, I don't consider myself as being in a "glass house" just at your stating such!

I'm entitled to say that the Irish Government's position is incredibly stupid when it is and I won't say otherwise.

There's no contradiction at all. The UK Government have always stated they want the Northern Ireland border open. The restrictions for the rest of the EU (bar Ireland) are in respect to employment and not to travel. Therefore biometric ID will be made available to those who apply for settled status to prove that they have the right to work in Britain.

On the DUP - they aren't in "power". They are in a confidence and supply arrangement. You can't blame them for taking the opportunity either. Again, I'm not convinced that the DUP are the spawn of the devil in the same way that I'm not convinced SF are.

The UK have stated that they do not want to put infrastructure on the border. The only people at the moment who are making that more likely are the EU and Ireland by delaying phase 2 discussions on trade and customs and the border. The pressure is in the wrong place. It ought to be on the EU to progress.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Schorpio · 27-11-2017 10:45AM

If it's so clear-cut, why are the UK failing to provide a written agreement that there will be no border?

You don't want a border, we don't want a border. Let's sign an agreement and all move on with our lives. Biometric ID's - all that stuff - can be worked out during the next round.

Leroy42 · 27-11-2017 10:46AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

The Irish government position is mindblowingly stupid because we all know that the UK aren't going to agree to membership of the customs union and the single market at a national level or a sub-national level. Therefore the only thing that the Irish Government are doing is blocking discussions on this issue and on the wider trade links with the UK that they heavily depend on.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

And that is fine, but apart from smart technology (of which they haven't actually given any details) how are the UK going to square the circle of removing themselves from the mechanisims that removed the need for borders and not having a border.

You seem to be suggesting that the UK simply won't erect a physical border, thus it won't be them to blame. But whomever actually builds it it needs to be built. And why would the UK voters, who voted to take back control, then cede control of their border to the EU?

And if they have open borders in NI, will they also have them throughout the UK and if not why not? If it is acceptable in one place surely it is acceptable in all?

We all know the position of the UK, they want everything for nothing. We know that the brexiteers want all the access and freedom of the EU but none of the responsibility. Wanting it does not mean that it is possible.

Leroy42 · 27-11-2017 10:51AM

Schorpio wrote: »

If it's so clear-cut, why are the UK failing to provide a written agreement that there will be no border?

You don't want a border, we don't want a border. Let's sign an agreement and all move on with our lives. Biometric ID's - all that stuff - can be worked out during the next round.

Exactly, why are the UK not giving this commitment?

Fox said yesterday that it would part of the negotiations.

Again, the UK already agreed to this being part of phase 1, now they are insisting that it is part of phase 2 are you are calling the Irish government stupid for sticking to an agreement.

Well then, what does that make the UK government for agreeing to it in the first place? And if they are so quick to renege on an agreement why should the Irish government, or the EU, take them at their word on anything?

Brexit discussion thread II

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