Brexit discussion thread II

Sam Russell · 25-11-2017 09:06PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There's these things called container ships...

No. RoRo operate this system so that trucks can drop the trailer and go, leaving the port operator to put the trailer on board and off the other end. Sometimes it is the original driver that drops the trailer, but it can be the port operator. It is a bit like a serviced wash at a launderette, but without the soap,

Containers use a completely different system, requiring cranes etc. A much slower operation.

murphaph · 25-11-2017 09:35PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

No. RoRo operate this system so that trucks can drop the trailer and go, leaving the port operator to put the trailer on board and off the other end. Sometimes it is the original driver that drops the trailer, but it can be the port operator. It is a bit like a serviced wash at a launderette, but without the soap,

Containers use a completely different system, requiring cranes etc. A much slower operation.

I don't think taking a container from a truck with a crane and transfering to the ship is slower at all. Those crane drivers can move containers across at a phenomenal rate.

If we do see a major shift to French routes I also believe it will eventually result in more containerisation simply because you can stack containers and one ship can carry many multiples of a ferry.

First Up · 25-11-2017 10:48PM

murphaph wrote:

If we do see a major shift to French routes I also believe it will eventually result in more containerisation simply because you can stack containers and one ship can carry many multiples of a ferry.

There's already a number of container routes between Ireland and France but they need volume to be viable and they are not as flexible or frequent as the R/O, R/O options.

But if the UK makes as big a balls of it as seems likely there could well be scope for extra routes/sailings because traffic transiting through the UK will be decimated. I don't see Holyhead etc getting their act together sufficiently or quickly enough to be able to handle non-EU traffic to the necessary standard.

Water John · 25-11-2017 10:51PM

Through traffic of the UK with sealed containers should have little or no delay, hopefully.

Sam Russell · 25-11-2017 10:56PM

Water John wrote: »

Through traffic of the UK with sealed containers should have little or no delay, hopefully.

Only if they can get through the congestion of the UK HGVs queues on the motorways. Do you think the UK police will assist them through the chaos?

Sam Russell · 25-11-2017 11:00PM

murphaph wrote: »

I don't think taking a container from a truck with a crane and transfering to the ship is slower at all. Those crane drivers can move containers across at a phenomenal rate.

If we do see a major shift to French routes I also believe it will eventually result in more containerisation simply because you can stack containers and one ship can carry many multiples of a ferry.

The whole point of RORO is it is quick to load and quick to unload. If a container is at the bottom of a pile, it cannot be quick. A RORO ship can empty in 30 mins, with the first trucks already on route after 10 mins. That could not happen with a container ship. Just look at them empty out of Dublin docks - all gone in a flash.

First Up · 25-11-2017 11:18PM

Sam Russell wrote:

The whole point of RORO is it is quick to load and quick to unload. If a container is at the bottom of a pile, it cannot be quick. A RORO ship can empty in 30 mins, with the first trucks already on route after 10 mins. That could not happen with a container ship. Just look at them empty out of Dublin docks - all gone in a flash.

And container ships need specialist equipment to load/unload. Thats why Felixtowe and Rotterdam take a lot of the container traffic. Holyhead or Stranraer are not in that game.

Water John · 25-11-2017 11:36PM

The Mail on Sunday carrying a headline re: Johnson and Gove, Russian link.

Inquitus · 26-11-2017 12:01AM

Water John wrote: »

The Mail on Sunday carrying a headline re: Johnson and Gove, Russian link.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5117547/Putins-link-Boris-Goves-Brexit-coup-revealed.html

LeinsterDub · 26-11-2017 12:10AM

Inquitus wrote: »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5117547/Putins-link-Boris-Goves-Brexit-coup-revealed.html

I'll wait for an actual newspaper to report it

Inquitus · 26-11-2017 12:23AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I'll wait for an actual newspaper to report it

I'll only read the Guardian out of all the rags over there, just because the article was mentioned in the post above I braved the Daily Xenophobia to have a look!

flaneur · 26-11-2017 12:31AM

FYP: it’s the Daily Hail.

Calina · 26-11-2017 04:01AM

IIRC the Mail on Sunday had a different editorial view on Brexit to the Daily Mail pre-referendum. But I am not sure that matters much since they share a website.

The interesting question here is how this piece might impact public opinion in the UK, in particular as both the Sun and the Express sites have picked up the story.

Leonard Hofstadter · 26-11-2017 10:37AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I'll wait for an actual newspaper to report it

The Mail on Sunday strongly backed (and continues to back) Remain - it may be the same ownership but it's a completely different newspaper to the weekday version (thankfully).

steddyeddy · 26-11-2017 10:41AM

The Irish Republic's EU commissioner has said Dublin will "play tough to the end" over its threat to veto Brexit talks moving on to discuss trade. Ireland seems to be playing a blinder on this. One guy over here (England) asked me which side Ireland's on in this. Our own surprisingly enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-42126687.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/ireland-threat-to-veto-brexit-trade-talks-over-border-issue-11144679

steddyeddy · 26-11-2017 10:50AM

Johnson and Johnson, a huge pharma company have pulled plans for a major UK research centre due to Brexit concerns.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/25/johnson-johnson-pulls-plan-first-uk-research-centre/

Capt'n Midnight · 26-11-2017 11:18AM

Phil Hogan on why a FTA on it's own isn't much use for this Island or even the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/phil-hogan-ireland-eu-commissioner-brexit-chaos

“I continue to be amazed at the blind faith that some in London place in theoretical future free trade agreements. First, the best possible FTA with the EU will fall far short of the benefits of being in the single market. This fact is simply not understood in the UK. Most real costs to cross-border business today are not tariffs – they are about standards, about customs procedures, about red tape. These are solved by the single market, but not in an FTA.”

This is a nice summation of how the UK's future trade talks will go. Nothing we haven't heard already, car crash stuff.

Hogan warned Britain may struggle to keep the 59 trade deals it now has through the EU on the same terms. “The UK would be running to stand still,” he said. “When it comes to trying to negotiate new FTAs with the rest of the world, Britain will be pushed around the way the EU – with currently more than eight times the UK population – will never be.

“The US have already started their attack on standards, so chlorine chicken and hormone beef for the British Sunday roast post-Brexit? India will insist on visas that the UK can never give. Australia and New Zealand are a long way away and of very limited economic interest. And any deal with China will be a one-way street in terms of costs and benefits for the UK.”

Britain’s former EU ambassador, Sir Ivan Rogers

“The internal market is an extraordinarily complex international law construct that simply doesn’t work in a way that permits the type of options that the current government is pushing for,”
...
We will not have reached a new equilibrium in British economics and politics until 2030.”

2030 that's a lot of uncertainty. How many investors know that , how many expansion plans will be put on hold ?

Project Fear from the London School of Economics

Thomas Sampson of the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance said Brexit could reduce UK living standards by up to 9% in the most pessimistic case.

First Up · 26-11-2017 11:37AM

All blindingly obvious to anyone who understands how international trade and supply chains work but it seems to be beyond the grasp of the Brexiteers.

The bit they fail to understand is how fine the margins are in competitiveness. A delay of hours at a border can knock you out of the game but the biggest problem is uncertainty. Companies all over the world are looking at their exposure to trade barriers with the UK and making contingency plans to find alternatives.

The bit about the UK's trade "deals" is especially pathetic. The Brexiteer line about negotiating all these wonderful new terms is jaw-droppingly niaive but continues to be trotted out, including by some posters here.

Igotadose · 26-11-2017 11:49AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Johnson and Johnson, a huge pharma company have pulled plans for a major UK research centre due to Brexit concerns.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/25/johnson-johnson-pulls-plan-first-uk-research-centre/

I find this interesting as the current ambassador to the Court of St. James is Woody Johnson, the Johnson&Johnson heir. Considering the access he would have to the corridors of power in the UK, one wonders what he's learned that got him to agree to not do this investment.... Of course he's separated from his business interests since taking the job (wink, wink).

Leroy42 · 26-11-2017 12:03PM

I also read that the .4% reduction in growth forecasts that were released as part of the budget are based on benign outcome to the Brexit talks.

What would be the impact from a no deal outcome? It can't be better, but how much worse and would even that cause the Brexiteers to pause?

Samaris · 26-11-2017 12:44PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I also read that the .4% reduction in growth forecasts that were released as part of the budget are based on benign outcome to the Brexit talks.

What would be the impact from a no deal outcome? It can't be better, but how much worse and would even that cause the Brexiteers to pause?

It's all become so bitter and divided that it would take a seismic shock that actually impacts voters individually to cause a reassessment. John Spodguy actually losing his job because the company has folded/is moving to Europe sort of thing might change his mind. By the time those shocks are being felt at a large enough scale for "Bregret" to take place, it'll be too late.

Doesn't help that Remain is angry and impotent and releases tension by ranting about Brexiters. I don't blame them, mind. They have every reason to be raging as the country starts to suffer for the sake of something they never agreed with and in the face of how it's taling place. But it takes serious guts to be able to admit in the face of ridicule that one has been wrong about a massive ideological decision, especially when the stakes are so high and there is plenty of media trying to force on the traitors/mutineers/everything will be lovely in the Brexit rosegarden views.

Unfortunately, the above media opinion-makers are far more likely to switch blame for everything that goes wrong to a punitive Europe and an obdurate Ireland rather than admit any fault in the matter. Or a government, especially if it's Labour by then.

Water John · 26-11-2017 12:53PM

Thanks for providing the link, Inquitus. The MOS in both the UK and Ireland is a very diff animal than the Daily. Both have an excellent record on well researched articles and exposes. for example, the Ireland MOS did a lot of good coverage on IW.
Read the article fully. You'd think in the last few weeks that Johnson himself penned the letter. The finger is now being pointed to a real vipers nest.

kowtow · 26-11-2017 01:35PM

A long read the article below, but a very interesting and objective insight into the EU and UK politics which brought the referendum about, in a lecture from David Cameron's then personal representative at the EU. He deals in detail with the difference of approach to the EU between the Eurozone nations and others, exemplified by the UK, and particularly with the breakdown in trust within the EU that came about with the urgent need for measures like the Fiscal Compact.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-inside-story-of-how-david-cameron-drove-britain-to-brexit

ancapailldorcha · 26-11-2017 02:14PM

Samaris wrote: »

It's all become so bitter and divided that it would take a seismic shock that actually impacts voters individually to cause a reassessment. John Spodguy actually losing his job because the company has folded/is moving to Europe sort of thing might change his mind. By the time those shocks are being felt at a large enough scale for "Bregret" to take place, it'll be too late.

Conor Gearty of the LSE has just likened Brexit to Vietnam:

Conor Gearty, LSE wrote:

Brexit is Britain’s Vietnam: every rational person knows it is not going well, but no one with authority seems able to say so.

He makes the case for it in this blog entry which is well worth a read.

Leroy42 · 26-11-2017 02:23PM

I see Liam Fox has come out and stated that NI border issues will not be agreed until after Trade Talks are concluded.

1st off, not sure why anybody would ask him anything, he clearly has no idea what is going on.
2nd, why would you actively inflame the situation? The EU has already stated that this is part of Phase 1, a process that the UK already agreed to.

Are we to take it that this is all part of some grand negotiation tactic by the UK, to keep the EU on its toes? Because I can only really see it as driving the complete loss of trust.

This line in particular I think is very telling;

“We can't get a final answer to the Irish question until we get an idea of the end state."

Fox said.

Or to put it another way, they have no idea what will happen until they work out the deal they get, then all things will be considered.

If I was the DUP that would be making me very nervous. That can be interpreted as saying that depending on the outcome of the deal they get them may well be inclined to give up NI border and thus allow NI to remain in the CU.

Professor Moriarty · 26-11-2017 02:28PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see Liam Fox has come out and stated that NI border issues will not be agreed until after Trade Talks are concluded.

1st off, not sure why anybody would ask him anything, he clearly has no idea what is going on.
2nd, why would you actively inflame the situation? The EU has already stated that this is part of Phase 1, a process that the UK already agreed to.

Are we to take it that this is all part of some grand negotiation tactic by the UK, to keep the EU on its toes? Because I can only really see it as driving the complete loss of trust.

This line in particular I think is very telling;

Fox said.

Or to put it another way, they have no idea what will happen until they work out the deal they get, then all things will be considered.

If I was the DUP that would be making me very nervous. That can be interpreted as saying that depending on the outcome of the deal they get them may well be inclined to give up NI border and thus allow NI to remain in the CU.

He's right. You can't solve the Irish border question without knowing the terms of the final deal. But Ireland and the EU want it solved before trade talks begin. It's chicken and egg. Tough luck, Liam, that conundrum is Britain's problem to solve.

ancapailldorcha · 26-11-2017 02:31PM

Having rather callously referred to EU migrants resident in the UK as "bargaining chips", I'm wondering if is isn't someone around who could be a little more diplomatic.

All the EU has to do is wait for the timer to expire. That's it. It'll hurt but so will giving the UK unfettered access to the single market without financial contributions, regulations or the four freedoms.

Leroy42 · 26-11-2017 02:34PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He's right. You can't solve the Irish border question without knowing the terms of the final deal. But Ireland and the EU want it solved before trade talks begin. It's chicken and egg. Tough luck, Liam, that conundrum is Britain's problem to solve.

I don't understand that. Why can't the NI issue be resolved prior to trade talks? Do UK have a position or not? If it can only be resolved after trade talks then aren't they admitting that the don't actually have any position and are as likely to give up on NI as they are to stand firm.

ancapailldorcha · 26-11-2017 02:36PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't understand that. Why can't the NI issue be resolved prior to trade talks? Do UK have a position or not? If it can only be resolved after trade talks then aren't they admitting that the don't actually have any position and are as likely to give up on NI as they are to stand firm.

Regrettably, it seems to represent a continuation of the "have cake and eat it" strategy. I was rather hoping that these silly games would have been done away with by now.

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-11-2017 02:36PM

I would not put it past this bunch of Tories and Brexiteers to start 'punishing' Irish people resident in the UK for the stance of the Irish Government - float the idea in the Tory press about taking away the rights of Irish people in the UK post Brexit

Brexit discussion thread II

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