Brexit discussion thread II

Professor Moriarty · 16-11-2017 05:28PM

murphaph wrote: »

Yeah true they were there but they were really on the fringes if my memory serves me right. The idea of something like Brexit coming to pass even under Thatcher seemed impossible to me.

Sometimes they came out of the cave. Remember John Major's 'Bastards'.

murphaph · 16-11-2017 05:30PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

I don't see any reason why discussing with regulators is "handwaving". I think the executive board of UBS would have made pretty thorough enquiries to European regulators to confirm this outcome before saying that they are going to scale down their moves rather publicly in the Financial Times.

I think Brexit is too good an opportunity to miss in terms of expanding trade from the UK. I hold to that view.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

If the UK came close to the levels of exports Germany has to these far flung countries (under the current regime!) then there might be some argument to make about the EU holding the UK back in some way but there simply isn't. The UK doesn't make as much stuff the world needs anymore.

Water John · 16-11-2017 05:43PM

Ken Clarke, superb speaker. He doesn't need to read notes. Where have the Tories got themselves to?
Have themselves wagged by Russia.

solodeogloria · 16-11-2017 06:23PM

whatstherush wrote: »

Surely the companies that are going to be affected most by Brexit are companies who trade(internationally) already, so again, why can't the people who are paid to make the strategic decisions for their respective companies not see " too good an opportunity to miss in terms of expanding trade"?

Good evening!

No - the companies that will be most effected by Brexit (if there's a bad deal or no deal) are the companies that are highly exposed to trade with the EU rather than companies that trade a lot with the rest of the world.

For Brexit to be successful I recognise that the UK needs as good a deal with the EU as possible whilst regaining the ability to negotiate free trade agreements that substantially liberalise trade with other countries.

I don't know what to make of your last question. Businesses have a broad range of views about Brexit. What is clear however is that uncertainty needs to be dealt with. I'm personally amenable to the Government heading north of its €20bn figure to something like £36bn net (€50bnish gross with EIB and rebate etc taken into account) if it provides this. This would be contingent on a good trade arrangement being agreed.

murphaph wrote: »

If the UK came close to the levels of exports Germany has to these far flung countries (under the current regime!) then there might be some argument to make about the EU holding the UK back in some way but there simply isn't. The UK doesn't make as much stuff the world needs anymore.

The UK is an exporter of services primarily. That just means the UK has a different economy to Germany's. Exporting services isn't inferior to exporting goods. The removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers will allow for better access for British goods and services into other parts of the world and vice versa. New opportunities to liberalise trade would inevitably give more opportunities to British businesses and create jobs. I don't take that comment back because it is true.

Signing deals with British interests at heart also won't involve the inevitable wrangling with 27 other countries.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Gerry T · 16-11-2017 06:59PM

How will the UK trade in services post brexit. All the UK trade deals are through the EU so finish March 19. WTO as far as I know doesn't cover services so there is no automatic way to trade services post brexit. Setting up a new service agreement will most likely take years, possibly 5 and more. Finally service trade can be based on recognition of each countries education qualifications, trade organisation, governance bodies, certification, local country regulation, which won't exist post brexit. Existing service companies will scale back to service local UK markets until all this gets sorted. In the mean time others will meet the service demand. By the time the UK re-enters that market they will have to compere for business and possibly won't have the available people with the required skill set to win back contracts.
It's just my opinion and you may argue a polar out come. But what is a certainty is no one really knows what will happen. We are all speculating. So if you own a French business availing of UK service, would you not mitigate that risk and change service provider during 2018 so as to insulate your business from damage. While the UK is extremely good at the service provision it provides, it's not the only one out there.

Capt'n Midnight · 16-11-2017 08:28PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

There's also the possibility of MiFID II equivalence.

If the EU grant the UK extensive rights under MiFID II who else do they have to grant them to ?

One of the huge problems with the UK asking for a deal is that other nations may be entitled to the same concessions. Is the UK going to pay for access for those other nations ? ... I thought not.

Banking is one of the areas where there has been an exaggeration of impact.

So the bankers are crying wolf as they buy and rent property in other EU financial centres ?

16-11-2017 08:45PM

RE: MiFID II

It’s worth remembering, however, that MiFIR only gives third-country firms a potential passport for professional clients and ECPs. The ability to do business with retail clients will still depend on the law of individual member states, unless it is carried out through reverse solicitation. Furthermore, an equivalence decision by the Commission takes time, though it could be undertaken in parallel with the withdrawal negotiations. Also, if one of the motivations for Brexit was to escape regulation from Brussels, there may be limited appetite in the next Government to comply with a rulebook over which the UK will have little control.

https://www.linklaters.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/eu-referendum-microsite/what-does-brexit-mean-for-mifid-ii

It is worth bearing in mind that almost nothing will be 'business as usual' post Brexit date without serious, serious work that is realistically terribly unlikely to be completed in time.

Capt'n Midnight · 16-11-2017 08:49PM

What has the EU ever done for us ?
European Investment Bank lends Limerick city and county council €85m for urban investment

The loan from the EIB is believed to be the first of its kind to a local authority, and the first of a series of supports from the bank to other Irish local authorities to fund urban renewal and development.

Plenty of local and regional authorities in the UK could do with that sort of funding. But that avenue will shortly be removed.

Capt'n Midnight · 16-11-2017 08:57PM

Not sure if this is an indication of general competence or of people having less cash due to Brexit either way it's not a good omen.

Tax disc: Car tax evasion triples after paper version scrapped

The number of unlicensed vehicles on the road has tripled since the paper tax disc was abolished, government figures show.

The data, published every two years, shows that the government potentially lost out on £107m from 755,000 unlicensed vehicles last year.

...

The measure was meant to have saved the Treasury £10m a year, the RAC said.

Figures from the Department for Transport show that 1.8% of vehicles were unlicensed in 2017 compared with 0.6% on 2013.

demfad · 16-11-2017 09:09PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

The UK is an exporter of services primarily. That just means the UK has a different economy to Germany's. Exporting services isn't inferior to exporting goods.

What is on offer if the UK do leave the customs union and Single market is a Canadian style FTA, de facto confirmed today I believe. As an FTA is an old style (end of life) instrument it deals mainly in goods NOT services.
So relatively good for the EU who export goods to the UK primarily. Relatively bad for the UK who export services primarily to the EU.
So in terms of the Brexit the British Government has cornered itself into:

Goods good
Services bad.

Got it now?

The removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers will allow for better access for British goods and services into other parts of the world and vice versa.

You are putting tarriffs onto goods with the other parts of the world!
If there is a crash out you will have the highest trade and non-trade barriers of any country on the planet bar none.

We are moving into a green economy age. By the time the UK comes to making trade agreements abroad the notion of shipping/flying goods half way around the planet will be gone or will be tarriffed heavily.

New opportunities to liberalise trade would inevitably give more opportunities to British businesses and create jobs. I don't take that comment back because it is true.

Whaaaatever

demfad · 16-11-2017 09:16PM

Super blunders by the Uk government:

1: Triggering article 50, the legal countdown to Brexit before the UK was ready or knew what ready meant (still doesnt)

2: Lancaster speech:

THe 3 redlines of no customs union no single market no ECJ. This is not just showing your hand: It is playing it. Easy for EU now: Canadian FTA best that can be offerred and the obvious implication of 3 redlines to Ireland (and other strict Brexit issues) must be addressed before that.

Withholding the redlines would have increased the possibility greatly of a bespoke deal deeper into the single market. Once those cards were played early that possibility vanished.

Professor Moriarty · 16-11-2017 09:49PM

This leaked strategy paper will make for grim reading if you are a Brexiteer.

Despite May's speech in September where she specifically rejected a Canadian deal, a Canadian deal seems to be all that the EU is prepared to offer:
The paper states that “single market arrangements in certain areas” or the “evolution of our regulatory frameworks” could not be managed within the EU body of law as it stands and therefore the UK would have to be satisfied with a “standard FTA”.

And it seems there will be no lifeline thrown to The City:
The documents explain that the UK’s insistence on “regulatory autonomy” and its intention to remove itself from the jurisdiction of the European court of justice mean it is “not compatible” as a partner within the EU framework.
Such a model would provide “no direct branching in sectors like financial services” and the documents add that there are only “limited EU commitments to allow cross-border provision of services”.

And the Tory Transition Deal appears to be very delusional:
The member states do not envision a lengthy extension of the two years, however. One EU diplomat said: “We all have our own domestic political situations to deal with and so I can’t imagine us having unanimity on extending article 50. And this extension would only be if we are near striking a deal and need a few extra weeks or months.”

Of course this paper may well have been leaked deliberately and/or be a ruse to frighten the horses. However, the positions it outlines are in alignment with what Barnier has being saying repeatedly since Article 50 was triggered. Dunno how many times May and Davis have to be told.

Capt'n Midnight · 16-11-2017 10:18PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This leaked strategy paper will make for grim reading if you are a Brexiteer.

Hard border for Northern Ireland so.

The EU-Canada deal slashes tariffs but trade in food is restricted by quotas and phytosanitary controls. There is also no additional access to the single market for financial services based in Canada.

Anthracite · 16-11-2017 10:19PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

The UK is an exporter of services primarily. That just means the UK has a different economy to Germany's. Exporting services isn't inferior to exporting goods.

Do you know much about WTO regs and trade in services?

An Ciarraioch · 16-11-2017 10:41PM

Ian Parsley, a prominent Alliance member:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ianjamesparsley/status/931259341965025281

murphaph · 16-11-2017 10:43PM

Anthracite wrote: »

Do you know much about WTO regs and trade in services?

It's gas. I (and plenty of others) have been hammering this point home here for months. Solo does not get it.

The UK is indeed a service based economy and there are NO current examples of FTAs with services that would be absolutely crucial to an economy like the UK's that simply does not make much stuff anymore.

That's why the single market is perhaps more important to the UK than any other country in it because it does enable the UK to trade in services.

If you asked a Martian which country based on their economy would least likely leave the EU they'd say the UK. Go figure.

ancapailldorcha · 16-11-2017 10:43PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Ian Parsley, a prominent Alliance member:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ianjamesparsley/status/931259341965025281

Mod: If you wish to post a link, please offer some form of opinion or comment along with it as opposed to just pasting it.

An Ciarraioch · 16-11-2017 10:49PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Mod: If you wish to post a link, please offer some form of opinion or comment along with it as opposed to just pasting it.

Basically outlines David Davis's visit to Germany, details the various options post-Brexit UK has for dealing with the Single Market as a third country, explains why the EU has the political and economic advantage, and why Davis was mocked as a result.

solodeogloria · 16-11-2017 10:53PM

murphaph wrote: »

It's gas. I (and plenty of others) have been hammering this point home here for months. Solo does not get it.

The UK is indeed a service based economy and there are NO current examples of FTAs with services that would be absolutely crucial to an economy like the UK's that simply does not make much stuff anymore.

That's why the single market is perhaps more important to the UK than any other country in it because it does enable the UK to trade in services.

If you asked a Martian which country based on their economy would least likely leave the EU they'd say the UK. Go figure.

Good evening!

Non-EU countries trade services with the EU today. So again, to say that trading services with the EU isn't possible as a third country isn't true.

It will be possible to trade services post-Brexit. The UK trades services with other EU countries, and the UK trades services with non-EU countries. There's no reason to believe that this won't continue.

This is why keeping a cool head and waiting for proper discussions on trade to begin is probably sensible instead of speculating wildly about boogeymen that probably don't exist.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

murphaph · 16-11-2017 10:57PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Non-EU countries trade services with the EU today. So again, to say that trading services with the EU isn't possible as a third country isn't true.

It will be possible to trade services post-Brexit. The UK trades services with other EU countries, and the UK trades services with non-EU countries. There's no reason to believe that this won't continue.

This is why keeping a cool head and waiting for proper discussions on trade to begin is probably sensible instead of speculating wildly about boogeymen that probably don't exist.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Fantasy. Pure and utter fantasy. UK services are far far more easily substituted than BMWs. That's all this comes down to.

solodeogloria · 16-11-2017 11:04PM

Good evening!

No response to the clear point - third countries import services into the EU today? These services are required and therefore are imported.

For the EU27 - there are specific financial services in London that will be required post-Brexit particularly in debt and capital markets.

Again, I think it may be a case of hysteria on your part. Let's wait and see what happens before we go down the apocalypse route.

I'm not looking to stop importing German cars. All the aggressive nonsense is coming from you. I want a good deal.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Water John · 16-11-2017 11:24PM

Davis give us the best slogan of Brexit: 'Don't put politics above prosperity'.
Only problem, he was addressing the German business leaders in Berlin.

LeinsterDub · 16-11-2017 11:24PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Assured by who?

So I assume we are not going find out who assured them?

listermint · 16-11-2017 11:30PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

So I assume we are not going find out who assured them?

Assured by people, very good people.

The best people.

murphaph · 16-11-2017 11:36PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

No response to the clear point - third countries import services into the EU today? These services are required and therefore are imported.

For the EU27 - there are specific financial services in London that will be required post-Brexit particularly in debt and capital markets.

Again, I think it may be a case of hysteria on your part. Let's wait and see what happens before we go down the apocalypse route.

I'm not looking to stop importing German cars. All the aggressive nonsense is coming from you. I want a good deal.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Of course you want (need) a good deal. The rest of the EU doesn't particularly. That's the problem for the UK!

Anthracite · 16-11-2017 11:38PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Non-EU countries trade services with the EU today. So again, to say that trading services with the EU isn't possible as a third country isn't true.

It will be possible to trade services post-Brexit. The UK trades services with other EU countries, and the UK trades services with non-EU countries. There's no reason to believe that this won't continue.

This is why keeping a cool head and waiting for proper discussions on trade to begin is probably sensible instead of speculating wildly about boogeymen that probably don't exist.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

It's possible to put people on the moon. We've managed 12 so far.

flutered · 17-11-2017 12:00AM

here is more tory ramblings
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/fox-lauds-wto-global-trade-deals-contrast-trump-203906835--finance.html

Leonard Hofstadter · 17-11-2017 12:05AM

Water John wrote: »

Davis give us the best slogan of Brexit: 'Don't put politics above prosperity'.
Only problem, he was addressing the German business leaders in Berlin.

The hypocrisy is simply staggering given that that is precisely what Brexit is about - putting internal Conservative party politics above the good of the UK.

It is clearly and unambiguously not in the UK's interest to be leaving the EU - and not just on the economic front, I mean in terms of the loss in the UK's standing right across the world, the level of influence the UK will be able to exert over the rest of Europe (as a mere third country) never mind the whole world, the fact that we are trying to solve the problem that is the UK and Brexit rather than fighting terrorism and all the other challenges the world faces, the loss of cultural diversity for the UK with the population becoming more homogeneous, and all the lost opportunities for the young generation of Brits in particular who very much wanted to stay in the EU but yet have been thrown under the bus by their parents and grandparents.

Leonard Hofstadter · 17-11-2017 12:07AM

flutered wrote: »

here is more tory ramblings
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/fox-lauds-wto-global-trade-deals-contrast-trump-203906835--finance.html

Stunning stuff given that the UK is in a process of putting up barriers with its largest trading partner - the rest of the EU. Of course, it's also putting up barriers by putting up barriers with the 50 odd countries the EU currently has free trade agreements with (most notably, Canada).

The British Government clearly doesn't understand the meaning of the word irony.

Vronsky · 17-11-2017 02:16AM

I'm sorry Solo, I just can't read your posts any more. They're long and detailed but you continually miss the point or obfuscate on, ignore or simply hand want genuine issues away. Whether this is wilful or not, I don't know, but it's tiring.

It's good that there are different points of view in the thread but only when the posters engage in meaningful debate on the topic.

I'm still waiting for that positive vision for Brexit, accompanied with detailed solutions to the challenges it poses from someone who advocates that position - Solo, you have posted over 450 times in this thread and all the while advocating the Brexit position, have you yet to tell us how the issues will be solved in a realistic way.

Kind regards

Brexit discussion thread II

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