Brexit discussion thread II

demfad · 27-10-2017 10:09AM

Firblog wrote: »

The way you seem to be taking Brexit you'd think that they'd gotten your sister pregnant and dumped her penniless in a strange city.. don't take it personally, it wasn't because they didn't like rest of us in Europe, it was because they got really tired of the rules.

Please post a link to where the reason for Brexit was given as getting 'tired for the rules' or else post some substantiation for your opinion.

Is this the advanced organisation that has auditors that have problems signing off the accounts? Where nearly 4% of the budget has been spent in error? Is it the best organised because it moves the parliament between 2 cities costing about a cool €100,000,000 per year?

Links?
It best you may prove that every organisation makes mistakes. We know this thks. Can you demonstrate how the EU is particularly wasteful?

We are smaller and poorer than them, were they racist towards us? Please post link to proof of your post.

Ireland has a CTA agreement with UK so not comparing like with like.

On the other hand, I remember the votes on the European Constitution, do you? France and Netherlands voted against it.. It was dropped, dead. Now think back to when we voted against any European treaty in a referendum, was it dead when we rejected it?

France and the Netherlands have a combined population of almost 100 million people. Ours was 3million+ at the time. It is only fair that this is taken into account. Also, the treaty was changed to reflect our concerns. For example the archaic Irish idea that having a commisioner was all important was reflected. Also in the second referendum the Fake news that was spread by Declan Ganley and others about abortion and EU armies was put straight.
We could have rejected it second time: it was passed overwhelmingly.

Who forced us to accept the payment of unsecured bond holders for the banks?

Same thing happened in US and all over the world. It is the system dominated by Global Finance. We take full advantage of this system via our tax/regulatory regime. You wont change this outside the EU.

Quite honestly the only arrogance I've seen in Europe recently is from Junker and Merkel,

The UK used arrogant/aggressive/militaristic language all through and post referendum. The Europeans were constrained. Sure Junker can mouth off, but you have 50 like him in the UK.

demfad · 27-10-2017 10:21AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

The discussion within the UK isn't about whether the UK leaves or stays because the vote has nullified the latter from being a realistic option in the current climate.

The discussion is about how to deliver Brexit in the best way possible. In the long term I'm still of the mind that regaining as much control as possible over the headline issues of the campaign (law, borders, money, and trade policy) is the best option.

Of course that should be done whilst seeking the best trading relationship possible within the parameters. This is why I think it's sensible for Barnier to propose a CETA like arrangement as he did this week. It's true that Brexit is effectively Britain asking for more distance from the EU in order to draw closer to the wider world. It's sensible to attempt to find the correct balance.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Remain is still a viable alternative within the UK and is gaining steam. Nigel Farage and several thousand bots threatening to take up arms wont change that.

Unfortunately for the UK the have the cake and eat it transition they were hoping for seems to be off the cards. Weber, head of the conservative group in the EU parliament has said that a country outside the EU given this sweet a deal will only encourage fringe (Russian backed) EU sceptic parties.
There will have to be a penalty such as giving up Financial pass-porting rights.

So the British may get this watered down transition. May has already said that a CETA type deal will greatly damage the UKs economy. That will take 5 years minimum so the UK is looking at at least 2 years out in the cold.
Remember during the transition all British deals with other countries (via EU) cease. It infact it takes them (a lot) further away from trading with the rest of the world.

Assuming green politics/economics has gripped the world in the next 10-15 years the folly of attempting to deal with countries far away while being locked out of the single market will just compound the pain and certainty of knowing that there is no way out of the austere poverty.

carrickbally · 27-10-2017 02:33PM

Nody wrote: »

Once again if you actually had bothered to do a basic research on the subject you'd know it was altered to specifically address the issues Ireland raised and was hence amended accordingly and Irish people asked if the amended treaty is now ok so yes the original treaty was dead when the Irish rejected it.

You mean they update the treaty to give Ireland all they asked for and that's somehow contempt for Ireland?

The Irish government who went and guaranteed all deposits and all debts against the advice of their advisers (on their own accord) and who failed to enforce their lax regulation in the first place which once again has been proven on boards multiple times and you have yet again failed to do basic research on. In fact if they had followed their adviser they would have burned $10 billion in junior debt but that would also been the whole hair cut.

I'll give you a clue; your claims are baseless which has been disproved multiple times inc. by the Irish government. The big losers if there would have been haircuts were the IRISH pension funds and US sources and not EU banks which is the popular yet utterly false claim (the 135 billion German liability was to the IFSC and not to Irish banks for example) because the Irish banks turned to US to borrow money when the European banks prudently stopped giving them even short term credits. In fact I suggest you read page 251 which clearly states who took this decision and it was not the ECB (ECB's comment are on page 246 forward and I quote "No contact between the Irish Government and either me (Jean-Claude Trichet) or the ECB or to my knowledge, their governments" when asked on ECBs involvement in the guarantee).

So Boris claim he can have the cake and eat it is what, truth? Daniel Davis claim it will be the easiest negotiation was what, truth? May's Brexit means Brexit and she'll be a iron lady ending up pleading for a deal she can sell to the EU leaders a year later was what, humility? May triggering A50 without even a plan or aligned government was what, a master stroke?

That is a brilliant post and puts the facts of the case so well.

It challenges the 'alternative facts' that has been repeated in the gutter London media and in much of our own media that the EU is to blame for all our problems.

Before EU membership we were alone under the thumb of the large neighbour next door.

Since EU membership we are one of a number of democracies that signed a treaty to cooperate in matters of mutual interest.

Much of the motivation for Brexit is that the English resent having to put up with those lower order countries not knowing their place as they expected them to do in imperial/colonial times.

Their reaction is to tear up the treaty they signed with them.

Read the London media and the discussions on the net as a result of their articles.

The contempt they express for Eastern Europe especially is something to behold.

Nate--IRL-- · 27-10-2017 02:49PM

blanch152 wrote: »

This is complete rubbish, akin to a conspiracy theory and has been debunked many times.

The FF government made an absolute cock-up on 30 September 2008 by guaranteeing the banks without consulting anyone in Europe possibly to bail out their friends at the top level of the banks. Now, we elected that FF government, so we are equally responsible because we gave them the power to make that monumentally stupid decision.

It is nice and comforting to blame someone else for our problems, but we brought it all on ourselves.

It must never never be forgotten that this was completely FF fault. They put us all on the hook for the bankers bad debts with that guarantee.

Nate

Mezcita · 27-10-2017 03:49PM

Coveney pretty much nailed it yesterday:

“What has been promised politically in the UK is simply undeliverable,” he said. “The realisation of that is dropping slowly.
“We must work towards a deal that recognises there are consequences to leaving the EU. That’s not a punishment. It is simply a fact that membership of the EU brings privileges, such as the trading structure.
“Leaving the EU cannot result in holding onto all the trade benefits of membership, while at the same time convincing your people that you can get all these other goodies. It can’t be done. It won’t be done, and it cannot be negotiated.”
Mr Coveney said the British people had made a “huge mistake” in its vote to leave the EU.
“The consequences of leaving the EU are now being laid bare,” he said. “This is a huge mistake by the British people, but it is their mistake to make. We have to accept the reality of it.
“The outcome we want is as close to the status quo as we can get. I’m not sure that view is necessarily shared – and understandably so – by other EU members states.”"

Quin_Dub · 27-10-2017 03:56PM

All - A little bit too much soap-boxing going on here.

Let's try to have open debate.

Thanks

Professor Moriarty · 27-10-2017 04:27PM

Mezcita wrote: »

Coveney pretty much nailed it yesterday:

“What has been promised politically in the UK is simply undeliverable,” he said. “The realisation of that is dropping slowly.
“We must work towards a deal that recognises there are consequences to leaving the EU. That’s not a punishment. It is simply a fact that membership of the EU brings privileges, such as the trading structure.
“Leaving the EU cannot result in holding onto all the trade benefits of membership, while at the same time convincing your people that you can get all these other goodies. It can’t be done. It won’t be done, and it cannot be negotiated.”
Mr Coveney said the British people had made a “huge mistake” in its vote to leave the EU.
“The consequences of leaving the EU are now being laid bare,” he said. “This is a huge mistake by the British people, but it is their mistake to make. We have to accept the reality of it.
“The outcome we want is as close to the status quo as we can get. I’m not sure that view is necessarily shared – and understandably so – by other EU members states.”"

At the same conference, the Head of the AIB, Richard Pym, put it bluntly:

We must plan for the worst possible car crash Brexit if the headbanger Brexiteers, who are determined to push for a hard Brexit, get their way.

And:

On immigration, there is ample evidence they can’t run the current system - never mind form a new one. Their currency has tanked, inflation is increasing, and euro zone growth now exceeds the UK’s.

I have no doubt that his comments would have had Coveney's tacit imprimatur. Refreshingly honest. Good man, Richard.

LeinsterDub · 27-10-2017 04:48PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGjkcQs4W_c

Real companies moving real jobs and real money out of the UK and into the EU and this is before an real panicking occurs. Imagine what happens in 3 months time if the current messing continues?

blanch152 · 27-10-2017 05:29PM

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

It must never never be forgotten that this was completely FF fault. They put us all on the hook for the bankers bad debts with that guarantee.

Nate

Unfortunately, going by the polls, it has been forgotten already

blanch152 · 27-10-2017 05:31PM

Mezcita wrote: »

Coveney pretty much nailed it yesterday:

“What has been promised politically in the UK is simply undeliverable,” he said. “The realisation of that is dropping slowly.
“We must work towards a deal that recognises there are consequences to leaving the EU. That’s not a punishment. It is simply a fact that membership of the EU brings privileges, such as the trading structure.
“Leaving the EU cannot result in holding onto all the trade benefits of membership, while at the same time convincing your people that you can get all these other goodies. It can’t be done. It won’t be done, and it cannot be negotiated.”
Mr Coveney said the British people had made a “huge mistake” in its vote to leave the EU.
“The consequences of leaving the EU are now being laid bare,” he said. “This is a huge mistake by the British people, but it is their mistake to make. We have to accept the reality of it.
“The outcome we want is as close to the status quo as we can get. I’m not sure that view is necessarily shared – and understandably so – by other EU members states.”"

What worries me most about that statement is the last sentence.

Ireland wants an open border, the UK claims to want an open border, but if the UK won't stay in the single market and the customs union, the EU may rightly and correctly insist that we impose border controls.

27-10-2017 05:39PM

demfad wrote: »

Please post a link to where the reason for Brexit was given as getting 'tired for the rules' or else post some substantiation for your opinion.

its certainly a far more believable reason than this one:-

carrickbally wrote: »

Much of the motivation for Brexit is that the English resent having to put up with those lower order countries not knowing their place as they expected them to do in imperial/colonial times.

LeinsterDub · 27-10-2017 06:04PM

blanch152 wrote: »

What worries me most about that statement is the last sentence.

Ireland wants an open border, the UK claims to want an open border, but if the UK won't stay in the single market and the customs union, the EU may rightly and correctly insist that we impose border controls.

We've a veto. Don't have to do anything we don't want to

carrickbally · 27-10-2017 07:06PM

Aegir wrote: »

its certainly a far more believable reason than this one:-

The hysterical right wing London press campaign against the EU went on for decades.

Brexit is the result.

Those are the facts whether you believe them or not.

carrickbally · 27-10-2017 07:25PM

Brexit is racially motivated.

The anti-EU campaign that went on for decades in the London gutter media was fundamentally racist.

The Rape of Lucretia · 27-10-2017 07:45PM

Mezcita wrote: »

“The outcome we want is as close to the status quo as we can get. I’m not sure that view is necessarily shared – and understandably so – by other EU members states.”"

blanch152 wrote: »

What worries me most about that statement is the last sentence.

“The outcome we want is as close to having their cake and eating it as we can get. I’m not sure that view is necessarily shared – and understandably so – by other EU members states.”"

ancapailldorcha · 27-10-2017 07:57PM

carrickbally wrote: »

Brexit is racially motivated.

The anti-EU campaign that went on for decades in the London gutter media was fundamentally racist.

Please stop the soapboxing. You've already been warned about it. Your last few posts are just attempts to labour this point and it is not adding anything constructive to the debate.

Nody · 27-10-2017 10:06PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

We've a veto. Don't have to do anything we don't want to

And what happens after for some reason Ireland vetoes the final deal? Hard brexit and hard border required...

So yea; Ireland has a veto but if UK don't play ball and move the border to the sea (since customs union appears to be out which was the other option) it's going to be a hard border and there's nothing Ireland can do about it (nor EU for that matter).

steddyeddy · 27-10-2017 10:38PM

blanch152 wrote: »

What worries me most about that statement is the last sentence.

Ireland wants an open border, the UK claims to want an open border, but if the UK won't stay in the single market and the customs union, the EU may rightly and correctly insist that we impose border controls.

Agreed. The UK still haven't faced this reality.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-10-2017 11:15PM

This one made me LOL
Brexit: EU bank may not fully repay UK until 2054 :eek:

"Everyone on both sides of the negotiating table agree that we have to pay back the 3.5 billion euro, basically in cash, and that will happen over a long period, up until 2054, because that's when the loans are amortised."

Another example of the slow motion train wreck that is Brexit. It's obvious once it's explained but it's another example of how Brexit won't be a windfall.

Firblog · 28-10-2017 03:44PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Agreed. The UK still haven't faced this reality.

It's not only the UK that has to face this reality, it's a shared one. It's not just up to the UK as to what type of border is going to exist between NI and the rest of the Island, the EU also has responsibility here.
I don't believe our govt is facing upto the reality that there most probably will be a hard border between on this Island, and constantly repeating that it is up to the UK to come up with solutions is not being constructive, it's more akin to Fr Jack answering that 'it's an ecumenical matter' when asked a question he doesn't have an answer to.

Nate--IRL-- · 28-10-2017 04:08PM

Firblog wrote: »

It's not only the UK that has to face this reality, it's a shared one. It's not just up to the UK as to what type of border is going to exist between NI and the rest of the Island, the EU also has responsibility here.
I don't believe our govt is facing upto the reality that there most probably will be a hard border between on this Island, and constantly repeating that it is up to the UK to come up with solutions is not being constructive, it's more akin to Fr Jack answering that 'it's an ecumenical matter' when asked a question he doesn't have an answer to.

A Hard Border is inevitable with the current direction of the talks. Unless Northern Ireland achieves customs and regulatory equivalence, there will be a border.

It is not within our power to grant the above, however Westminster can. One suggestion being Northern Ireland seeking to become a separate entity in the WTO.

Nate

steddyeddy · 28-10-2017 06:44PM

Firblog wrote: »

It's not only the UK that has to face this reality, it's a shared one. It's not just up to the UK as to what type of border is going to exist between NI and the rest of the Island, the EU also has responsibility here.
I don't believe our govt is facing upto the reality that there most probably will be a hard border between on this Island, and constantly repeating that it is up to the UK to come up with solutions is not being constructive, it's more akin to Fr Jack answering that 'it's an ecumenical matter' when asked a question he doesn't have an answer to.

The EU does have responsibility, but they are also the ones who hold all the cards. We're the far bigger power in this negotiation and should put as much onto the British government as possible. After all this is their choosing.

blanch152 · 28-10-2017 08:57PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The EU does have responsibility, but they are also the ones who hold all the cards. We're the far bigger power in this negotiation and should put as much onto the British government as possible. After all this is their choosing.

It does look like the EU are gambling on the UK crumbling and accepting Norway status for a decade or so while it gets ready to properly leave.

carrickbally · 28-10-2017 09:26PM

Firblog wrote: »

It's not only the UK that has to face this reality, it's a shared one. It's not just up to the UK as to what type of border is going to exist between NI and the rest of the Island, the EU also has responsibility here.
I don't believe our govt is facing upto the reality that there most probably will be a hard border between on this Island, and constantly repeating that it is up to the UK to come up with solutions is not being constructive, it's more akin to Fr Jack answering that 'it's an ecumenical matter' when asked a question he doesn't have an answer to.

I have been banned for expressing my opinion on this thread so I do not know if I am allowed to say anything more in case I am banned again.

Anyway I will risk it.

It was the UK that took the initiative to vote for Brexit.

That was not constructive since a hard border is the inevitable result.

Nobody can do anything about that since the UK seem to want to be outside the customs union and do not want free movement of people.

Unless they change that attitude everyone involved - the UK, the EU and especially Ireland - will have to put up with the consequences.

First Up · 28-10-2017 09:43PM

blanch152 wrote:

It does look like the EU are gambling on the UK crumbling and accepting Norway status for a decade or so while it gets ready to properly leave.

No gambling involved. The EU has contingency plans for any of the various ways the UK exit could go. Whichever version the UK decides upon will be fine.

The UK has bet the family home on this. The EU 27 has the price of a night out at stake. Ireland is the most exposed; the EU knows that and that's in the plans.

Charles Babbage · 28-10-2017 10:26PM

First Up wrote: »

The UK has bet the family home on this. The EU 27 has the price of a night out at stake. Ireland is the most exposed; the EU knows that and that's in the plans.

If the UK creates a crisis hard Brexit, this would be very unusual thing, as there is a very influential lobby of business etc against this and it would be remarkable for a government to committ suicide in this way. Some sort of delay, in the form of a transition period, or an extension of Article 50, seems more likely than pulling the trigger.

carrickbally · 28-10-2017 10:32PM

First Up wrote: »

No gambling involved. The EU has contingency plans for any of the various ways the UK exit could go. Whichever version the UK decides upon will be fine.

The UK has bet the family home on this. The EU 27 has the price of a night out at stake. Ireland is the most exposed; the EU knows that and that's in the plans.

I am sorry but I think that is too complacent.

I do not see Brexit as anything but a disaster in world terms.

It will have negative effects on the EU which is hard to forecast.

But Brexit is damaging a union of democracies which vary from former imperial powers to former members of the Soviet Union.

That is a hugely negative historical development.

Nody · 28-10-2017 10:39PM

Btw here's a fun fact of hard brexit; on the day of the hard brexit we've all talked about these trucks being stuck in Calais etc. Well there's another knife twist to that reality; every single UK driving license will not longer be valid in EU (and vice versa) as they will not longer be recognised by the other paty. That means no car, truck or other vehicle can pass the border unless the driver can show appropriate license and that trip will be a one way trip (i.e. in or out of UK).

carrickbally · 28-10-2017 10:44PM

Nody wrote: »

Btw here's a fun fact of hard brexit; on the day of the hard brexit we've all talked about these trucks being stuck in Calais etc. Well there's another knife twist to that reality; every single UK driving license will not longer be valid in EU (and vice versa) as they will not longer be recognised by the other paty. That means no car, truck or other vehicle can pass the border unless the driver can show appropriate license and that trip will be a one way trip (i.e. in or out of UK).

But that is not funny.

It is a disaster.

It is especially a disaster for this country.

Junkyard Tom · 28-10-2017 11:44PM

I'd say a hard border in Ireland would return a pro-UI vote in less than 10 years.

Brexit discussion thread II

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