Brexit discussion thread II

Sam Russell · 19-10-2017 07:49PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/how-much-do-we-spend-on-the-eu-and-what-else-could-it-pay-for/

I think the EU's 50 billion divorce bill is extreme. Britain pays in around 8.4 billion a year after rebates etc, so 50 billion would be 6 years worth of payments. Thats excessive in my opinion, and struggle to see how EU can justify it.

The divorce bill contains various elements.

1. The contributions to the current budget cycle - I think it goes to 2021.

2. The funding of EU pensions (future amounts for ALL EU pensioners - not just UK citizens). This fund is paid from current funds so is not easy to calculate, bur actuaries are good at this.

3. The cost of moving the banking and medicine boards to their new home.

4. The cost of the Brexit circus. I would guess this alone would run to a billion euro.

5. Possibly, included could be the extra cost of customs, and other extra administration, such as the ECJ costs.

I think that should be easy to calculate, but first to agree the basis.

The idea that the Irish border depends on the trade agreement puts the question the round the wrong way. There will be no border on the Island of Ireland so agree how that can be achieved.

The citizen rights again should be straight forward, and should be reciprocated.

Not rocket science. If you want an agreement, just find agreement through compromise.

The Rape of Lucretia · 19-10-2017 07:49PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

How long do you think young EU migrants living in UK will be here? A lot work and pay in more than they take as has been stated, but not all. Some will potentially drawing on money from the state for decades to come. The retirees in Spain will be dead in a few years. It works both ways. Plus any living in UK have full access to the NHS, which is a cost Spain does not have.

I meant former UK employees of the various EU institutions over the decades.

Enzokk · 19-10-2017 07:50PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

I got the 50 billion from Google. So from what you are saying it sounds like it will be a lot more than 50 billion.

Its best to wait until you get the numbers from the EU themselves. Seems a bit random as well, I get a lot of things from google, usually contact numbers or whether I should be concerned about that rash. Usually it gives you what you ask for and isn't a news service.

murphthesmurf · 19-10-2017 07:51PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Britain never made an effort to be part of the community!

What exactly should they have done? The UK along with Germany were, for a long time, the only 2 net contributors. If you don't fit in to a club after 44yrs, you never will and its time to find a new club.

The Rape of Lucretia · 19-10-2017 07:52PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

The idea that the Irish border depends on the trade agreement puts the question the round the wrong way. There will be no border on the Island of Ireland so agree how that can be achieved.

Surely there could be, and this is one of the UK's strongest levers over the EU. No deal - erect a border. The UK can do this.
Politically highly undesireable for both sides, but a price the UK can threaten it is willing to pay.

murphaph · 19-10-2017 07:55PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

How long do you think young EU migrants living in UK will be here? A lot work and pay in more than they take as has been stated, but not all. Some will potentially drawing on money from the state for decades to come. The retirees in Spain will be dead in a few years. It works both ways. Plus any living in UK have full access to the NHS, which is a cost Spain does not have.

Very odd argument. Anyway most migrants to the UK will head home to warmer weather to retire. The young EU migrants in the UK will contribute taxes like anyone else and then draw their UK pensions like anyone else.

Firblog · 19-10-2017 08:00PM

Enzokk wrote: »

For those that was against immigration there could have been an element of racism involved, whether they liked it or not.... Ignorance of the truth is no excuse when it comes to racism or xenophobia and this seems to be where most people fell short, even if they don't like to hear it.

In any case those that are convinced that immigration is ruining the UK will not have their minds changed as they are thinking emotionally and not rationally. I am sure smarter people will be able to point out why the areas with the least amount of immigration are the areas that voted in the highest percentage for Brexit, or how the AFD in Germany got their support in the East of Germany where there is the lowest immigration yet that is what AFD main talking points were.

You have encapsulated a few of the points I've made previously, you're calling people who had concerns about immigration and the effects on their communities, services, country, racist and xenophobic for having those concerns. Straight away you have dismissed their worries, you don't live where they live, don't experience what they experience, and the only measurement you seem take into account for the effects of immigration is the economic one; as long as there is a plus in the balance sheet it must be a good thing, nothing else matters.

I believe you have portrayed the attitude that lost the brexit vote for the remain side.

Nody · 19-10-2017 08:03PM

Firblog wrote: »

You have encapsulated a few of the points I've made previously, you're calling people who had concerns about immigration and the effects on their communities, services, country, racist and xenophobic for having those concerns. Straight away you have dismissed their worries, you don't live where they live, don't experience what they experience, and the only measurement you seem take into account for the effects of immigration is the economic one; as long as there is a plus in the balance sheet it must be a good thing, nothing else matters.

I believe you have portrayed the attitude that lost the brexit vote for the remain side.

And you have shown exactly why those same people will be in for a world of pain for the next two decades with worse service, worse experiences, less money with worse quality on food and working conditions. But that is what they voted for and they will reap what they sowed due to their ignorance and they will blame EU and foreigners the whole time doing so because it's not the well educated who can move to EU for a new job, or the once who're making hundreds of thousands who'll pay for Brexit but rather the middle class and down of society.

murphaph · 19-10-2017 08:03PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

What exactly should they have done? The UK along with Germany were, for a long time, the only 2 net contributors. If you don't fit in to a club after 44yrs, you never will and its time to find a new club.

That's a falsehood. France and the Benelux countries were also net contributors all along. I'd be surprised if the Nordic countries weren't also.

solodeogloria · 19-10-2017 08:05PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

The divorce bill contains various elements.

1. The contributions to the current budget cycle - I think it goes to 2021.

2. The funding of EU pensions (future amounts for ALL EU pensioners - not just UK citizens). This fund is paid from current funds so is not easy to calculate, bur actuaries are good at this.

3. The cost of moving the banking and medicine boards to their new home.

4. The cost of the Brexit circus. I would guess this alone would run to a billion euro.

5. Possibly, included could be the extra cost of customs, and other extra administration, such as the ECJ costs.

I think that should be easy to calculate, but first to agree the basis.

The idea that the Irish border depends on the trade agreement puts the question the round the wrong way. There will be no border on the Island of Ireland so agree how that can be achieved.

The citizen rights again should be straight forward, and should be reciprocated.

Not rocket science. If you want an agreement, just find agreement through compromise.

Good evening!

This is how it is seen from the EU side. In the UK this is seen as a trade off for trade access. You're not going to change that. Davis is quite clear that the UK were willing to go further from this position but it depends on trade.

I can't see it going much further than 3 years contributions net (after EIB assets are taken into account).

It takes two to compromise. The UK have already been pretty generous on all three issues considering nothing of substance has been offered in return.

I'm hopeful for a good deal but I'm happy for the prime minister to walk from a bad one.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

murphthesmurf · 19-10-2017 08:08PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Surely there could be, and this is one of the UK's strongest levers over the EU. No deal - erect a border. The UK can do this.
Politically highly undesireable for both sides, but a price the UK can threaten it is willing to pay.

They may threaten this, but as a Brit I can tell you from my experience this is something that the British public would certainly not want. Public favour for this would be none existent. Mainland Britain was to some extent segregated from what went on in the north. It was only really spoken of with regards to terrorist attacks in the past. But in more recent years people have gotten to know a lot more. People travel to the north and south on holiday and have gotten to see what it is like now and what it would have been like back then.
I may be wrong but I can't see them ever erecting a boarder again. No amount of spin would make it sound like a good idea. The cost of policing it would be astronomical too. I would imagine even the US would put pressure on UK not to go down that route, given the high number of Irish/Americans.

The Rape of Lucretia · 19-10-2017 08:13PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I can't see it going much further than 3 years contributions net (after EIB assets are taken into account).

It takes two to compromise.

Thats not a compromise at all - that would be just not paying the outstanding bill.

Compromise only comes into the future relationship of finding agreement on tariffs, movement of people, the border with Eire, etc. On this aspect, the EU will negotiate. And compromise.

Paying for your family's dinner in a restaurant, do you call over the patron, and say that you know you were presented with a bill for €100, but surely he must compromise, how about you pay €20, and he lets your kids come in for more icecream for the next three days.
I thought only Davis was taking that bonkers line.

murphthesmurf · 19-10-2017 08:18PM

murphaph wrote: »

That's a falsehood. France and the Benelux countries were also net contributors all along. I'd be surprised if the Nordic countries weren't also.

My mistake, article said UK and Germany were only 'significant' net contributors.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/how-much-do-we-spend-on-the-eu-and-what-else-could-it-pay-for/
There are apparently now 12 countries who are net contributors.

murphthesmurf · 19-10-2017 08:21PM

murphaph wrote: »

Very odd argument. Anyway most migrants to the UK will head home to warmer weather to retire. The young EU migrants in the UK will contribute taxes like anyone else and then draw their UK pensions like anyone else.

Whats odd about it? I was replying to a comment from someone who said regarding the supposed 50 billion divorce bill. The OP commented on the cost of the pensions for the retirees in Spain. I was pointing out that the UK will have costs for EU immigrants too over the years, so it balances out.

Firblog · 19-10-2017 08:29PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Surely there could be, and this is one of the UK's strongest levers over the EU. No deal - erect a border. The UK can do this.
Politically highly undesireable for both sides, but a price the UK can threaten it is willing to pay.

I think you may have that the wrong way, regardless of what the UK does, they could unilaterally decide that the North can trade freely without tariffs with the south, and that they will not block free movement of people into the north from here; but if the EU doesn't want goods coming into the EU without tariffs from NI, they will insist on customs and border controls on our side.

Who will be the bad guy then?

Jim2007 · 19-10-2017 08:30PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Surely there could be, and this is one of the UK's strongest levers over the EU. No deal - erect a border. The UK can do this. Politically highly undesireable for both sides, but a price the UK can threaten it is willing to pay.

And what do they do then? They have a population who are experiencing significant increases in cost of living through FX and tariffs, can't leaving the country for holidays in the sun, 48% of their exports are facing tariffs and inspections in the EU, WTO deals are blocked due to the objections of the US, Canada etc plus now the EU on trade schedules etc....

Time is the one thing the UK does not have. All the players know that any threats the UK makes are groundless because they don't have sufficient time to carry them out.

Jim2007 · 19-10-2017 08:35PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

Whats odd about it? I was replying to a comment from someone who said regarding the supposed 50 billion divorce bill. The OP commented on the cost of the pensions for the retirees in Spain. I was pointing out that the UK will have costs for EU immigrants too over the years, so it balances out.

Odd would be that the UK has to carry the costs of the retirees regardless. The rule is that the country paying the biggest part of the pension is also responsible for all healthcare costs etc.... one of our neighbours here are a retired English couple, every year they get a new insurance card from one of the private insurance companies here paid for by the NHS, costs about CHF 11k!

Firblog · 19-10-2017 08:37PM

Nody wrote: »

And you have shown exactly why those same people will be in for a world of pain for the next two decades with worse service, worse experiences, less money with worse quality on food and working conditions. But that is what they voted for and they will reap what they sowed due to their ignorance and they will blame EU and foreigners the whole time doing so because it's not the well educated who can move to EU for a new job, or the once who're making hundreds of thousands who'll pay for Brexit but rather the middle class and down of society.

Where did you pick all that up from my post?

Where did you come across such a dismal portrayal of the future of UK? From the same people who forecast the almighty recession that hit the UK after they voted to leave?

Beechwoodspark · 19-10-2017 08:45PM

If the chairman of Goldman Sachs is more or less abandoning London, (see his tweets) I'd be worried for the British.

Jim2007 · 19-10-2017 08:45PM

Firblog wrote: »

I think you may have that the wrong way, regardless of what the UK does, they could unilaterally decide that the North can trade freely without tariffs with the south

If they go to WTO terms as the walk away advocates recommend, the tariffs will have to be applied as set out in those agreements - food being one of then. I though the same, but that is wrong.

I can't find the original article I was referred to, but this is a flavour of what is to come:

These tariffs rise as high as 46 percent for Italian mozzarella cheese, and around 40 percent for supermarket staples such as Irish beef and cheddar cheese. Dutch tomatoes would face a 21 percent levy - though Britons could turn to drink instead, and pay just 4 percent extra for French wine.

Source

Apparently the only alternative is a free for all, where the UK allows everyone to export to them on zero tariffs - which of course would wipe out UK farmers etc...

murphthesmurf · 19-10-2017 08:47PM

Firblog wrote: »

You have encapsulated a few of the points I've made previously, you're calling people who had concerns about immigration and the effects on their communities, services, country, racist and xenophobic for having those concerns. Straight away you have dismissed their worries, you don't live where they live, don't experience what they experience, and the only measurement you seem take into account for the effects of immigration is the economic one; as long as there is a plus in the balance sheet it must be a good thing, nothing else matters.

I believe you have portrayed the attitude that lost the brexit vote for the remain side.

Well said. I always find it amusing how the people cheering for more immigration and how great it is are usually from nice private neighbourhoods where none of these immigrants will live. All the presenters on Newstalk talking about the poor people drowning in boats and how Ireland should take more of them in. Yet none of them will be going to live in their leafy suburbs. They are put into lower working class neighbourhoods and schools. It is these people who are impacted by immigration thrust upon them by the people in the afluent neighbourhoods. When these lower working class people questions what is going on they are frowned upon and scorned for being racist scum.
The new buzz word is 'populist'. If you question mass immigration, your views are dismissed as 'populist'.
I lived in the West Midlands in the UK most of my life, 36 yrs. Over that time I witnessed the effects of immigration. Not EU immigration I must add, but immigration from prodominantly Muslim countries. It is not the rosie scene many of you imagine. Moving here was a huge step up for me and my family. A friend of mine was working at an old people's home once in Smethwick, an area of Birmingham. Smethwick is really not a pleasant place. While working in the garden he found a machete which had been thrown over the wall. The police were walking by later and he showed them what he had found. The Police advised him to keep hold of it as he may need it.
I've gone slightly off subject I know, and I'll probably be branded a 'populist' racist or whatever else. It just bugs me how quickly and eagerly people are shouted down as racist in these discussions for daring to question the merits of immigration.
Many of my friends growing up were Sikh and some black, they would agree with everything I say. Are we all racist? Or maybe, just maybe there is some truth to it.

Beechwoodspark · 19-10-2017 08:51PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Surely there could be, and this is one of the UK's strongest levers over the EU. No deal - erect a border. The UK can do this.
Politically highly undesireable for both sides, but a price the UK can threaten it is willing to pay.

Good evening!!!

More than highly undesirable -it would be in breach of the GFA.

http://pure.qub.ac.uk/portal/files/123024606/Brexit_and_the_UK_Ireland_Border_Discussion_Paper.pdf

The UK would be in hot water if they tried to erect this border you suggest they could threaten.

Much thanks (?!?)

Beechwoodspark

The Rape of Lucretia · 19-10-2017 08:53PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

More than highly undesirable -it would be in breach of the GFA.

And what stop would that put on it ?

Beechwoodspark · 19-10-2017 08:54PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

This is how it is seen from the EU side. In the UK this is seen as a trade off for trade access. You're not going to change that. Davis is quite clear that the UK were willing to go further from this position but it depends on trade.

I can't see it going much further than 3 years contributions net (after EIB assets are taken into account).

It takes two to compromise. The UK have already been pretty generous on all three issues considering nothing of substance has been offered in return.

I'm hopeful for a good deal but I'm happy for the prime minister to walk from a bad one.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Good evening !

Indeed it does take two to compromise. The UK would do well to take note of your attitude!

Much thanks (?!?)

Beechwoodspark

Beechwoodspark · 19-10-2017 08:56PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

And what stop would that put on it ?

Oh, well, you tell me?? What do you think?

The Rape of Lucretia · 19-10-2017 09:01PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Oh, well, you tell me?? What do you think?

I was asking because I dont know, not because you didnt know.
I see no reason myself.

Beechwoodspark · 19-10-2017 09:05PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I was asking because I dont know, not because you didnt know.
I see no reason myself.

Good evening!

Go on Wikipedia and have a read about the GFA. It's quite a comprehensive article and you will come away feeling more knowledgable about it all.

Much thanks(?!?)

Beechwoodspark

The Rape of Lucretia · 19-10-2017 09:11PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Good evening!

Go on Wikipedia and have a read about the GFA. It's quite a comprehensive article and you will come away feeling more knowledgable about it all.

Much thanks(?!?)

Beechwoodspark

I'll pass thanks.
And just put up the border.

Beechwoodspark · 19-10-2017 09:12PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I'll pass thanks.
And just put up the border.

Good evening!!

Won't happen mate.

Much thanks (?!?)

Beechwoodspark

The Rape of Lucretia · 19-10-2017 09:15PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Good evening!!

Won't happen mate.

Much thanks (?!?)

Beechwoodspark

Most unlikely I agree.
Could happen though. Thats the point.

Brexit discussion thread II

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