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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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Comments

  • #2072
    Autochange
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭Autochange


    Is it possible that it will continue to track west? Meaning it could mostly avoid Ireland?


  • #2073
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest IR image. Those grids are 2 degrees (120 nautical miles/222 km) in height, so with about 2.5 boxes (~300 n.mi/550 km) left to travel and a foward speed of around 50 kph it will take about 11 hours for the centre to reach the south. That's about 10-11 am, in line with the models.

    20171015.2115.msg3.x.ir1km.17LOPHELIA.75kts-971mb-431N-143W.100pc.jpg


  • #2074
    Louche Lad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,112 ✭✭✭Louche Lad


    Interesting observation:


  • #2075
    Reggie.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,609 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Size of the wind field

    2Xsyfq7.png?1

    So it's beginning off the South coast any time now?


  • #2076
    km79
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,424 ✭✭✭✭km79


    civdef wrote: »
    Just a query regarding yr.no, what models would they be using for forecasts of Ireland- generally find them good, but their wind speeds for tomorrow seem to be out of kilter?
    Yeah I asked this earlier too
    Whatever model it is it's been absolutely wrong !


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  • #2077
    MJohnston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,724 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Louche Lad wrote: »
    Interesting observation: https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/919554081315844097

    Won't go east of the Greenwich Meridian either, I believe


  • #2078
    uck51js9zml2yt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    mel.b wrote: »
    Is it just me or does it look like from the sat24 image that it is (has?) shifting slightly more west?

    Joanna saying that any shift east or west won't make any difference to the intensity or danger!


  • #2079
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Size of the predicted wind field close to now.


    2Xsyfq7.png?1


    That's for 1 am, so it's still a bit further south than shown.


  • #2080
    Rikand
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,622 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Autochange wrote: »
    Is it possible that it will continue to track west? Meaning it could mostly avoid Ireland?

    Well its tracking straight north rather than west atm and it could keep going north for a time. However the system its tangled up in at the moment won't allow it to move west so even if it keeps going north, parts of the country will still get a serious wind event


  • #2081
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    So it's beginning off the South coast any time now?

    See the GIF models a couple of pages back, you can make out the times the winds will arrive to your area.


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  • #2082
    Autochange
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭Autochange


    Rikand wrote: »
    Well its tracking straight north rather than west atm and it could keep going north for a time. However the system its tangled up in at the moment won't allow it to move west so even if it keeps going north, parts of the country will still get a serious wind event

    Okay thanks. Im in north Tipp so unsure how much of the storm we will get


  • #2083
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note : Warning to Pokerking see Mod note on First post :

    Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1
    Mod note

    This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

    Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

    And please don’t feed
    Thanks


  • #2084
    Autochange
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭Autochange


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Mod Note : Warning to Pokerking see Mod note on First post :

    Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1
    Mod note

    This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

    Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

    And please don’t feed
    Thanks

    ? Is that aimed at me? I just asked a question


  • #2085
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ? Is that aimed at me? I just asked a question

    Mod Note: No, I moved your post into the discussion thread.


  • #2086
    Rikand
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,622 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Autochange wrote: »
    Okay thanks. Im in north Tipp so unsure how much of the storm we will get

    If you're north of the silvermine mountains you could be okay. They'd act as a bit of a shield for you.

    All depends on your local topography with how you might fair out. If you're badly exposed to the South then you could get some damage


  • #2087
    Autochange
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭Autochange


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Mod Note: No, I moved your post into the discussion thread.

    OK no worries . Might get some info here though. Other thread is just some people complaining about having to work and wheelie bins blowing away! Some good info on this one


  • #2088
    Super-Rush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,473 ✭✭✭✭Super-Rush


    Tracking further west still on Sat24.


  • #2089
    _Whimsical_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,992 ✭✭✭_Whimsical_


    Super-Rush wrote: »
    Tracking further west still on Sat24.

    Will this change the potential impact and places affected?


  • #2090
    jds0ur
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 152 ✭✭jds0ur


    Does anyone have a recorded track of where is been?


  • #2091
    crushproof
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,024 ✭✭✭crushproof


    Is it just me or is veering a lot more to the west than expected?


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  • #2092
    Super-Rush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,473 ✭✭✭✭Super-Rush


    _Whimsical_ wrote: »
    Will this change the potential impact and places affected?

    Red warning should still be in effect for Western coastal counties.


  • #2093
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,437 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It could miss Co Kerry (the low centre) but arent all the strongest winds to the East of the low centre.

    Would be better if it went as originally forecast.....or spun out to the West completely n fc uk ed off


  • #2094
    Minister
    Closed Accounts Posts: 444 ✭✭Minister


    Does above mean that tomorrow's weather will be nowhere near as serious as thought earlier on today?

    Note - l am trying to learn from posts as don't know meteorology. Thanks.


  • #2095
    Super-Rush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,473 ✭✭✭✭Super-Rush


    Minister wrote: »
    Does above mean that tomorrow's weather will be nowhere near as serious as thought earlier on today?

    Note - l am trying to learn from posts as don't know meteorology. Thanks.

    Still too early to say.

    It could swing back East again or stay West. The next hour or two will tell a lot.


  • #2096
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    Path so far times are 19.30, 21.30, 22.35, 23.35 red is the center
    dnS0rsg.jpg


  • #2097
    stevenup7002
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 165 ✭✭stevenup7002


    A few hours ago, some people were saying it looked like it was going too far east and would hit France, so...


  • #2098
    Hooter23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,528 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    If it tracks further west than forecast the strongest winds will be in the west, south and perhaps further inland too...we shall see


  • #2099
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    No real change on the 18z Arome, track is further east than the gfs, 150kph gusts on the immediate south coast, around 100-120kph for most.

    aromehd-52-24-0_pqm4.png

    Potential for gale force or even up to strong gale force 9 right into the midlands

    aromehd-3-19-0_knp4.png


  • #2100
    BoatMad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    pauldry wrote: »
    It could miss Co Kerry (the low centre) but arent all the strongest winds to the East of the low centre.

    Would be better if it went as originally forecast.....or spun out to the West completely n fc uk ed off

    Yes. Strongest winds well to the east


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  • #2101
    piuswal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭piuswal


    Beginning to show influence on wind direction now

    see

    http://www.met.ie/latest/marine-analysis.asp

    http://www.met.ie/weathermaps/WEB_Analysis.png?2351


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