Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

George Sunsnow · 15-10-2017 10:13AM

dusty207 wrote: »

Wonder if Met Eireann is monitoring this thread to see what to advise?

I doubt it

leahyl · 15-10-2017 10:14AM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Ophelia is down to 90 knots now.

Is it going to weaken significantly before Monday would you think?

Cloudio9 · 15-10-2017 10:17AM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Ophelia is down to 90 knots now.

I guess the relevant information is if that’s more, less or same as expected ?

SeaBreezes · 15-10-2017 10:17AM

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919470638842171392/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMetEireann%2Fstatus%2F919470638842171392

Liffey4A · 15-10-2017 10:20AM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Ophelia is down to 90 knots now.

I've read your comments yesterday with interest. You are edging on the very windy day versus large storm from Met eireann side of things etc.

I know your not trolling but am genuinely interested on why you think the models and forecasters are wrong on this one?

I'm finding it difficult to believe we are going to get a huge storm despite all the forecasts pointing to one.
It's probably years of disappointment from previous snow forecasts etc, but in saying that I've taken all necessary precautions and warned others to do the same.

bnt · 15-10-2017 10:22AM

Lumi wrote: »

Update from Ryan Maue earlier this morning

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/919407554073124864

I would just add a clarification about the kind of chart he used in that tweet. He talks about "0-2 km above surf" i.e. those charts don't show the wind speed at ground level. They are marked "850 HPa", which translates to roughly 5,000 feet above sea level. It's not a fixed height, but a "pressure height", which is why it can vary and he doesn't give an exact figure. So when you see a chart, just be aware that it might not be describing or predicting the situation at ground level (10m), but much higher up.

Gaoth Laidir · 15-10-2017 10:23AM

Liffey4A wrote: »

I've read your comments yesterday with interest. You are edging on the very windy day versus large storm from Met eireann side of things etc.

I know your not trolling but am genuinely interested on why you think the models and forecasters are wrong on this one?

I'm finding it difficult to believe we are going to get a huge storm despite all the forecasts pointing to one.
It's probably years of disappointment from previous snow forecasts etc, but in saying that I've taken all necessary precautions and warned others to do the same.

I never said they were wrong. I was only pointing out the difference in NHC intensities and that we should subtract about 11% from their figures to get them in our speak, what we're used to.

It's going to be very bad in the south, don't get me wrong.

George Sunsnow · 15-10-2017 10:25AM

Michael fish is on bbc news 24 now mainly on the 87 storm
He may speak of today too
He’s looking very old

On tomorrow,Very nasty conditions
90 mph gusts he says in Ireland tomorrow

Nettle Soup · 15-10-2017 10:31AM

dusty207 wrote: »

Wonder if Met Eireann is monitoring this thread to see what to advise

I doubt it, I'd say they have enough to monitor to be fair.

stefanovich · 15-10-2017 10:33AM

Nettle Soup wrote: »

I doubt it, I'd say they have enough to monitor to be fair.

The emergency meeting should be starting now. I'd imagine we'll get an update from them after that concludes.

whippet · 15-10-2017 10:33AM

Worst of the wind will be gone and Tuesday good chance of no electricity also .. so bbq will be a god send

RobertKK · 15-10-2017 10:34AM

The southern counties of Ireland will be upgraded to status red wind warning going by what Met Eireann, the National Hurricane Center and the weather models are showing.

There is very likely to be rainfall warnings for the western part of the country.

Warnings about staying away from coastal locations due to high seas needs to be emphasised.

The potential for loss of life and property destruction is high.

Nettle Soup · 15-10-2017 10:34AM

Is it true that Wexford to Cork will take the brunt of this storm and that Galway/Mayo could be downgraded?

leahyl · 15-10-2017 10:34AM

So it seems Joanna Donnelly was quite nervous when she did the forecast last night - just saw a tweet from her and she said it the first time she has ever felt nervous regarding the weather, has complete confidence in the forecast though

ch750536 · 15-10-2017 10:36AM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I think one of the changes Met Eireann should make,

1) Draw attention to storm surge on South coast.
2) Expand red alert to much larger swathe of country

Agreed on the storm surge, looking non trivial at the moment.

JanuarySnowstor · 15-10-2017 10:39AM

Well 06z gfs is identical to previous run.
Wrap around as storm clears may lead to a nationwide red with emphasis on South.
I see no reason why Midlands, Dublin should avoid going red as it's also under threat as storm pulls away

Gaoth Laidir · 15-10-2017 10:39AM

Latest satellite images: visible, water vapour. Note the eye starting to fill and the loss in symmetry.

20171015.0830.msg3.x.vis1km_high.17LOPHELIA.90kts-964mb-380N-197W.100pc.jpg

20171015.0915.goes13.x.wv1km.17LOPHELIA.90kts-964mb-380N-197W.85pc.jpg

amandstu · 15-10-2017 10:40AM

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/10/20/0000Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-36.00,50.00,1432/loc=-10.629,53.623

How reliable is this site?

firemansam4 · 15-10-2017 10:40AM

Just looking at the satellite loop on the sat24 page and just at the last couple of frames I can notice a distinct turn towards the north of the hurricane:

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/forecast/europe/with-controls/europe-infrared-sat-loop.php

Nettle Soup · 15-10-2017 10:43AM

leahyl wrote: »

So it seems Joanna Donnelly was quite nervous when she did the forecast last night - just saw a tweet from her and she said it the first time she has ever felt nervous regarding the weather, has complete confidence in the forecast though

Fair play to her. We are all human. People on here should walk a mile in her shoes before they criticise her again.

pad199207 · 15-10-2017 10:44AM

This is going to be stunning to watch on satellite as she makes her way northwards.

flazio · 15-10-2017 10:44AM

From what I'm reading into the latest national forecast from Met Eireann is they don't want to put the country into "Battle stations" mode as it's too early to know if the storm will fizzle out before it gets here. This would lessen people's trust in the organisation (which generally is already mis trusted) and could prove dangerous in the event a real life threatening storm hits our shores.

Gaoth Laidir · 15-10-2017 10:49AM

10Z wind analysis, still showing 95 knots to the east. The overall 64+ radius has shrunk to 45 n. miles and the 34+ radius has expanded now to 140 n. miles.

200motels · 15-10-2017 10:54AM

This just on Met Éireann

Additional Note: At present, the strongest and most damaging winds are now forecasted to affect Munster and south Leinster, particularly the southwest, south and Irish Sea coasts with the heaviest rainfall accumulations in Connacht, west Ulster and west Munster. There are likely to be changes to the warnings which will be updated later this morning, pending the latest up to date guidance. This is an evolving situation and your patience is appreciated.

JanuarySnowstor · 15-10-2017 10:55AM

It's now the main item on CNN website!!!!

Samaris · 15-10-2017 10:56AM

Regarding the hurricane's forward pace dropping - I know that was a problem with the ones down in the warmer waters near the Gulf/Carribbean as (Irma, wasn't it?) just sat there and slurped up warm water to feed off, but is it an intensifier over the cooler Atlantic waters?

pad199207 · 15-10-2017 10:57AM

Met Eireann says extreme event likely tomorrow. Red alert may be extended to some eastern counties and downgraded in some western counties.

amandstu · 15-10-2017 11:00AM

pad199207 wrote: »

Met Eireann says extreme event likely tomorrow. Red alert may be extended to some eastern counties and downgraded in some western counties.

Where do they say that?

amandstu · 15-10-2017 11:02AM

Samaris wrote: »

Regarding the hurricane's forward pace dropping - I know that was a problem with the ones down in the warmer waters near the Gulf/Carribbean as (Irma, wasn't it?) just sat there and slurped up warm water to feed off, but is it an intensifier over the cooler Atlantic waters?

At a guess ,not for wind speed but yes for rainfall.

fryup · 15-10-2017 11:08AM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It's now the main item on CNN website!!!!

we're famous

Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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