Brexit discussion thread II

Enzokk · 12-10-2017 10:23PM

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

Technically correct. But (at least) half the Conservative party was campaigning for it as well. None of them have a plan.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

This is not correct. The people of NI voted to leave the EU. The referendum was a UK-wide, single democratic decision, and NI's choice was to be bound by the decision of the majority. So while many in the north voted to leave, and many voted to remain - overall, they voted to leave.

I am not for one moment saying the Brexit vote means NI should leave the UK, but if as some has said the vote sacred and should be followed by the politicians, where does this leave those governments that make their own decisions and have their own parliaments? But I guess its the conundrum of the DUP, they only want to be British when it suits them.

What they should be doing is fighting for the best deal for the people of NI, who wants a close relationship with the EU. They are doing the opposite of this though.

Fratton Fred · 12-10-2017 10:34PM

Samaris wrote: »

Not...quite. Cork is argumentative but has no separate ethnic identity. Cornwall is Celtic in origin, and it has played a part in the different identity of Cornish people to their English neighbors.

The Cornish were Britons, like everyone else south of Gretna Green. They were just less affected by Anglo Saxon and latterly Norman culture.

Samaris · 12-10-2017 10:50PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The Cornish were Britons, like everyone else south of Gretna Green. They were just less affected by Anglo Saxon and latterly Norman culture.

..Yes? I don't get your point that it's the same thing as Cork and Dublin when it plainly is not. The Britons were Celtic. England became predominantly Anglo-Saxon of various flavours and then Norman as you point out, but Cornwall, like Scotland, Wales, Ireland, the Isle of Man, etc, kept a strongly Celtic strain that impacted language and culture.

It is really not the same thing as two cities in Ireland. Or even two counties within the Republic. Closest is probably something like the Connemara Gaeltacht, but even that's less so, it's really only the language. Cornwall has a distinct regional identity with distinct heritage (albeit closely intertwined with neighbouring regions), distinct language (those that can speak it) and many identify more strongly with this culture than the wider national one.

It's never likely to become independent. But there's no point pretending that there is no difference at all between Cornwall and, say, Hertfordshire, in the heart of England.

Sam Russell · 12-10-2017 10:53PM

Samaris wrote: »

..Yes? I don't get your point that it's the same thing as Cork and Dublin when it plainly is not. The Britons were Celtic. England became predominantly Anglo-Saxon of various flavours, but Cornwall, like Scotland, Wales, Ireland, the Isle of Man, etc, kept a strongly Celtic strain that impacted language and culture.

It is really not the same thing as two cities in Ireland. Or even two counties within the Republic.

Not only that, but the NE of England (Yorkshire, Northumberland) were peopled by Viking or Danes.

Samaris · 12-10-2017 10:57PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Not only that, but the NE of England (Yorkshire, Northumberland) were peopled by Viking or Danes.

Ah, is that why Yorkshire has its own set of separatists? Wessex I just about understood, Yorkshire was a weird one.

The Rape of Lucretia · 12-10-2017 10:58PM

https://twitter.com/MarieAnnUK

Not sure if this was linked here before or not. Much of it damned funny. Brexit is the tragedy that keeps on dishing up the comedy.

blanch152 · 12-10-2017 11:07PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I am not for one moment saying the Brexit vote means NI should leave the UK, but if as some has said the vote sacred and should be followed by the politicians, where does this leave those governments that make their own decisions and have their own parliaments? But I guess its the conundrum of the DUP, they only want to be British when it suits them.

What they should be doing is fighting for the best deal for the people of NI, who wants a close relationship with the EU. They are doing the opposite of this though.

A lot of people are losing the run of themselves and some of the posts have been extraordinary, actually funny if they weren't so serious.

What people are forgetting is that Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, that is all.

- It didn't vote to leave the UK
- It didn't vote for an Irish Sea border
- It didn't vote for a hard border with the South

And it certainly didn't vote to unify this island.

The Rape of Lucretia · 12-10-2017 11:10PM

blanch152 wrote: »

A lot of people are losing the run of themselves and some of the posts have been extraordinary, actually funny if they weren't so serious.

What people are forgetting is that Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, that is all.

- It didn't vote to leave the UK
- It didn't vote for an Irish Sea border
- It didn't vote for a hard border with the South

And it certainly didn't vote to unify this island.

'Northern Ireland' didnt vote for anything.
More UK citizens, resident in NI, voted to remain than to voted to leave. That is all one can say.

FrancieBrady · 12-10-2017 11:23PM

blanch152 wrote: »

A lot of people are losing the run of themselves and some of the posts have been extraordinary, actually funny if they weren't so serious.

What people are forgetting is that Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, that is all.

- It didn't vote to leave the UK
- It didn't vote for an Irish Sea border
- It didn't vote for a hard border with the South

And it certainly didn't vote to unify this island.

Nobody I can see said they did.
But actions have consequences. Which might be funny if they were not so serious.

Fratton Fred · 12-10-2017 11:25PM

Samaris wrote: »

..Yes? I don't get your point that it's the same thing as Cork and Dublin when it plainly is not. The Britons were Celtic. England became predominantly Anglo-Saxon of various flavours and then Norman as you point out, but Cornwall, like Scotland, Wales, Ireland, the Isle of Man, etc, kept a strongly Celtic strain that impacted language and culture.

It is really not the same thing as two cities in Ireland. Or even two counties within the Republic. Closest is probably something like the Connemara Gaeltacht, but even that's less so, it's really only the language. Cornwall has a distinct regional identity with distinct heritage (albeit closely intertwined with neighbouring regions), distinct language (those that can speak it) and many identify more strongly with this culture than the wider national one.

It's never likely to become independent. But there's no point pretending that there is no difference at all between Cornwall and, say, Hertfordshire, in the heart of England.

I think the main point to note, is that the Cornish being celts and there being somehow not English is something that exists mainly in the heads of Irish nationalists and their belief in the true Celtic gene and the oppression by the Saxon foe.

That’s the only reason it got raised on this thread, let’s be honest.

Anyway, good luck telling Jack Nowell he isn’t English.

steddyeddy · 12-10-2017 11:48PM

blanch152 wrote: »

A lot of people are losing the run of themselves and some of the posts have been extraordinary, actually funny if they weren't so serious.

What people are forgetting is that Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, that is all.

- It didn't vote to leave the UK
- It didn't vote for an Irish Sea border
- It didn't vote for a hard border with the South

And it certainly didn't vote to unify this island.

Well that's lovely, but they voted to remain yet are leaving. Their situation, being in the UK and leaving the EU means they have no choice. Sea border or crippled economically.

steddyeddy · 12-10-2017 11:50PM

This has to be painful for the UK if the UK is ever going to rejoin the EU and prosper again. It's that simple.

It's beginning to show though. Bombardier represents 10% of the North's GDP and that's just the start. It's a taste of how the UK will be treated in all future deals.

Fratton Fred · 12-10-2017 11:57PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

It's beginning to show though. Bombardier represents 10% of the North's GDP and that's just the start. It's a taste of how the UK will be treated in all future deals.

How is it? Bombardier is a Canadian company.

GalwayMark · 13-10-2017 12:08AM

They can wallow in the grief and self-pity because only then will the realization they're no longer exceptional is going to sink in pretty hard. It will be painful with lots of bumps but when reality dawns on them expect a lot of apologies or ignorance depending on the outcome.

steddyeddy · 13-10-2017 12:14AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

How is it? Bombardier is a Canadian company.

Because the UK is significantly weaker now out of the single market. They can fight these tarriffs, but have to do so without annoying potential trading partners. It was on Question Time in Belfast.

It's a needed blow because it's the only thing that will break the delusion of Brexit.

ezra_pound · 13-10-2017 12:42AM

GalwayMark wrote: »

I honestly can't see Wales going it alone nor Cornwall but a 'Britain' will exist albeit not Great Britain which includes Scotland,England and Wales. People need to realise Great Britain means the three countries whereas Britain equals just England and Wales. I'd guess a sort of federal settlement between Cardiff and London but no It'll be just Three Countries Two Islands as opposed to Two Islands Two and a Bit Countries.

No. Britain is an island which is often referred to as great Britain to distinguish it from Brittany. It's a French linguistic matter. Bretagne= Brittany grande Bretagne = Britain.

Peregrinus · 13-10-2017 03:10AM

murphaph wrote: »

. . . A possible outcome in a decade or so would be the UK electorate complaining that they have no say in the rules they follow and a push to join the EU would ensue. Obviously the Euro would have to be adopted along with Schengen.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Obviously ?

murphaph wrote: »

If the UK ever seeks to rejoin the EU? Of course.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Of course ?

Pretty much, yes.

We're speculating about a future application by the UK to be readmitted to the EU, and a great deal would have to happen before that would become politically realistic but, still, we can speculate. If the UK were to apply to rejoin in ten or so years, how would the EU react? One certain reaction is "we're not going to put ourselves through all that again. All the griping and whinging and throwing toys out of the pram. It has to be different this time."

So I think the UK's readmission would be depdendent on a changed political consensus within the UK - one in which the UK political establishment is actually enthusiastic about the European project, and in which instead of trying to accommodate anti-European sentiment (e.g. by holding idiotic refererenda) they marginalise it (e.g. by slinging europhopes out of the major parties, and leaving them to the likes of Farage). As others have pointed out out, acceptance of the euro and of the Schengen agreement are already standard conditions of entry. So if the UK's application for re-entry were to be accompanied by demands for immediate concessions and dispensations from the rules which apply to everyone else, well, that would send send signals about the UK's attitude to the project which would make rejection of the application a racing certainty.

listermint · 13-10-2017 06:17AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

How is it? Bombardier is a Canadian company.

Enough with offloading the blame on this one.

The company is significant to the UK if the UK wielded any strength with the US these days if would not have happened and this would have been handled behind closed doors.

To keep saying is a US Canada problem is offloading the fact the UK has by its own hands diminished its own trading stature.

These are realities

Zubeneschamali · 13-10-2017 06:31AM

Samaris wrote: »

Which is a bit beyond even the most negative view of Brexit!

You must have missed that 2015 Mad Max movie.

FrancieBrady · 13-10-2017 06:59AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Because the UK is significantly weaker now out of the single market. They can fight these tarriffs, but have to do so without annoying potential trading partners. It was on Question Time in Belfast.

It's a needed blow because it's the only thing that will break the delusion of Brexit.

The realisation and fear was palpable on QT last night. As was who is going to ship the blame for landing northern Ireland in it.
Wait until it starts hitting farming.

Enzokk · 13-10-2017 07:55AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

How is it? Bombardier is a Canadian company.

I guess the 4000 jobs in Northern Ireland counts towards the Canadian figures. Or the tax they pay goes straight to Canada.

listermint wrote: »

Enough with offloading the blame on this one.

The company is significant to the UK if the UK wielded any strength with the US these days if would not have happened and this would have been handled behind closed doors.

To keep saying is a US Canada problem is offloading the fact the UK has by its own hands diminished its own trading stature.

These are realities

Imagine the pressure the UK together with Canada could have put on the US if they didn't need to beg for a trade deal.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The realisation and fear was palpable on QT last night. As was who is going to ship the blame for landing northern Ireland in it.
Wait until it starts hitting farming.

The potential job losses for Northern Ireland is double that what Boeing has in the UK as a whole. Don't be fooled about the amount of money that Boeing provides to the UK either as they have a bigger range of aircraft that costs a lot more to build and buy than the C Series. So if Rolls Royce wins a contract for the 787 the cost to supply engines are worth almost as much per delivery as the CS100 would cost an airline (CS100 list price $76.5m, usually around 40-60% discount, cost per 787 engine is around $16m per engine).

So the figures are more impressive for Boeing when looking at the UK economy, but like most figures once you peel away at the layers you realise there is more to them than just the headline amounts.

Peregrinus · 13-10-2017 08:16AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

How is it? Bombardier is a Canadian company.

Bombardier is indeed a Canadian company. And, to add weight to Fred's point, what is causing the US to threaten punitive tariffs is subsidies provided to Bombardier by the Canadian authorities, not the UK authorities.

Northern Ireland is collateral damage in this particular spat. The spat is not happening because of Brexit; it would most likely have happened anyway.

Still, there are definitely Brexit-related lessons to be learned. The main one is that the "special relationship" is worth diddly-squat in trade matters. May has pointed to the damage that will be done to Northern Ireland, and has alternately pleaded with Mr Trump to intervene and threatened the UK's own retaliatory sanctions; so far she has bugger-all to show for her efforts. This undoubtedly prefigures the attitude the Trump administration will take when it comes to the wider question of negotiating a trade deal with the under-pressure UK. Bend over, Teresa, and brace yourself!

Would events have unfolded differently but for Brexit? Possibly. The issue would still have arisen, but if it was the EU, rather than the UK, pressing the US to moderate its stance, the US might pay more attention. Not that they have any particular affection for the EU or acknowledge any debt or obligation to it, but the EU is a much bigger trading partner, and has much more negotiating muscle. On the other hand, the US might not pay any more attention. A rational government would, but right now the US does not have a rational government.

Enzokk · 13-10-2017 08:22AM

Some amazing quotes from prominent Leavers that is showing up recently. First we have John Redmond who wants the Chancellor to get the Treasury to be more optimistic.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/918403714041503752

"The Chancellor must get the Treasury to have more realistic, optimistic forecasts & to find the money for a successful economy post Brexit"

So either he believes there is money that has not been found and the treasury must use that, or failing that I guess it means raiding the public spending coffers again and let those that need help be damned.

Then we have Nigel Lawson who before the referendum said it would almost certain that a FTA with the EU will be signed as the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU.

Now it seems he is suggesting that a no-deal outcome was always the most likely to happen. Another lie to add to the multitude of other ones that the people fell for.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/918698664394080256

In any case, British growth is once again below inflation so it seems like a fall in real income is waiting for people once again.

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/918479724015480833

murphaph · 13-10-2017 08:25AM

The salient lesson to be learned from Bombardier is that the US is prepared to treat its next door neighbour harshly in trade matters. The UK will soon be in a position closer to Canada than where it sits today, ensconced in a union of 500 million of the richest people in the world.

The UK will, just like Canada, be the rule taker in any agreement with the US. That is not the case for the EU. That's what the UK is leaving. They seem unable to accept that times had even changed long before they joined the EEC, nevermind since then.

Samaris · 13-10-2017 08:32AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I think the main point to note, is that the Cornish being celts and there being somehow not English is something that exists mainly in the heads of Irish nationalists and their belief in the true Celtic gene and the oppression by the Saxon foe.

That’s the only reason it got raised on this thread, let’s be honest.

Anyway, good luck telling Jack Nowell he isn’t English.

I think the main point to note is that the original line was a joke, so there's really no need to invoke Saxon foes and Irish nationalism! It is merely a point of fact that there are specifically differing identity markers, including language, culture and even genetic markers (although in both Scotland and Cornwall, it is strongly mixed with Saxon). Whether people identify more strongly with Cornwall or with England (or indeed Scotland and England around the borders), or even just "British" is really up to them after that and nothing to do with Ireland or Irish nationalism at all. I have no idea who Jack Nowell is, but I'm certainly not going to argue with him that he's X or Y. But the Cork/Dublin bit is a ridiculous comparison.

However, since god knows what the next will be and I have no wish to get into the woes-of-Ireland argument (nor did I realise -Cornwall- would start one), I'm going back to Brexit now - seems safer!

murphaph · 13-10-2017 09:07AM

John Redwood's comments are particularly deluded. "just make it work somehow" is what he is essentially saying. He is such a vacuous man and always was. Nigel Lawson has been clearly shown here to be a liar. So many many lies told on the leave side. All swallowed hook, line and sinker by so many people. The tone is starting to shift now to one of distinct urgency, but the EU is rock like in its stability.

Fratton Fred · 13-10-2017 10:11AM

listermint wrote: »

Enough with offloading the blame on this one.

The company is significant to the UK if the UK wielded any strength with the US these days if would not have happened and this would have been handled behind closed doors.

To keep saying is a US Canada problem is offloading the fact the UK has by its own hands diminished its own trading stature.

These are realities

it isn't offloading blame, it is pointing out facts.

The penalties have been imposed on a Bombardier model imported in to the US from Canada, not the UK. The factories in NI are only making parts for the C Series and ship them to Canada.

The UK government should 100% back the Canadian government in this, but it cannot fight for them.

Peregrinus · 13-10-2017 10:16AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it isn't offloading blame, it is pointing out facts.

The penalties have been imposed on a Bombardier model imported in to the US from Canada, not the UK. The factories in NI are only making parts for the C Series and ship them to Canada.

The UK government should 100% back the Canadian government in this, but it cannot fight for them.

Sure it can. It's perfectly reasonable for the UK government to point out directly to the US government that the measures it is threatening will have adverse affects on the UK and on UK producers/workers, and in fact SFAIK the UK government has done precisely this. This isn't the UK government fighting Canada's corner; it's the UK government fighting the UK's corner.

(Fighting, but it looks like a losing fight. Which, as I say, does have a wider significance in the context of Brexit.)

Fratton Fred · 13-10-2017 10:26AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Sure it can. It's perfectly reasonable for the UK government to point out directly to the US government that the measures it is threatening will have adverse affects on the UK and on UK producers/workers, and in fact SFAIK the UK government has done precisely this. This isn't the UK government fighting Canada's corner; it's the UK government fighting the UK's corner.

(Fighting, but it looks like a losing fight. Which, as I say, does have a wider significance in the context of Brexit.)

indeed, it has also made some implied threats direct to Boeing as well.

if the case ends up in international courts though, it will be Canada, nuot the UK, pursuing this.

It does have some indication of what Brexit means, but this is probably a wider demonstration if the "America First" policies being implemented in the US.

Remember, the Donald dumped the TPP and wants to renegotiate NAFTA. Brexit aside and even if the eu did decide to fight Bombardier's corner, a full blown confrontation with the eu would probably suit him right now.

Peregrinus · 13-10-2017 10:33AM

Yes. I think the UK would be better-positioned if the EU had its back on this but, given the psychotic toddler currently occupying the White House, it might not make any difference to the outcome.

Brexit discussion thread II

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