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Brexit discussion thread II

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Comments

  • #4412
    carrickbally
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 66 ✭✭carrickbally


    demfad wrote: »
    The possibilities now might be:
    • No-Deal Brexit: 50:50 chance I think. Discussions break down. UK leaves without an agreement. Disaster followed by desperate bid to rejoin a tarnsition.
    • Transition then EFTA: If they (UK) get their act together. Solves all issues. They cant negotiate teh deals they need to otherwise.
    • No Brexit: The big red stop button: Authors of A50 say its revocable (by UK parliament), Tusk agrees. More likely as time moves on, probably after referendum.

    Far too optimistic.

    The breakdown before Christmas and the long term economic war is the most likely outcome.


  • #4413
    First Up
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,823 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    carrickbally wrote:
    By tearing it up the Brexit vote in the UK showed a total contempt for the people of this island.

    I'd guess that the GFA was a factor in approximately feck all of Brexit voters' decisions.


  • #4414
    carrickbally
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 66 ✭✭carrickbally


    First Up wrote: »
    I'd guess that the GFA was a factor in approximately feck all of Brexit voters' decisions.

    All of which proves my point.

    They did not care that 85% of voters on this island supported the GFA and that Brexit was tearing it up.


  • #4415
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,997 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Here is a website that lists the myths that has been printed in the UK press about the EU and what they actually wanted to achieve.

    Euromyths A-Z index

    You have all the favourites on there, including hairdressers being banned from using high heels to yoghurt not being named yoghurt any longer.

    The one where the EU wanted to "ruin" British jam is interesting, where the press had stories about how the EU wanted to cut the minimum sugar content to 50% from 60% in November 2013. Yet in March 2013 the story was the EU was straggling UK producers of jam by red tape and not allowing them to cut the minimum sugar to 50% from 60%. So in a few months the EU was blamed for stopping UK suppliers from cutting the sugar content, and then a few months later for telling them to cut the sugar content.

    If you are the EU you cannot win in the UK, I think that is very clear.


  • #4416
    solodeogloria
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Well, yes, I think they expect the Tory party to be too busy with infighting and party politics to do any real negotiating, and the media to be faithfully blaming the EU for any lack of progress.

    This is not to say they will be in a better position in January 2018, but they certainly cannot now agree to pay, say, a 60 billion divorce bill, agree an open-ended "transitional period" including freedom of movement, budget contributions and EU court oversight.

    This is what they will agree to eventually (or Corbyn will), but they can't admit it right now.

    Good evening!

    The EU are being intransigent when the Prime Minister has given key compromises to the EU, in respect to the shape of the transition, in respect to contributions, in respect to citizens rights and how they will be protected in British law (direct effect).

    There are two things the EU could do tomorrow to progress discussion:
    1) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will accept supremacy of the ECJ over Britain's laws.
    2) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will agree a large payment with no transitional terms in return.

    The Danish are starting to make murmurings in agreement.

    The idea that the UK is going to indefinitely stay in transition is nonsense. The Prime Minister could have climbed down any time since the referendum, but she hasn't because she's aiming to deliver the referendum result.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


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  • #4417
    carrickbally
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 66 ✭✭carrickbally


    The London media is telling the rest of the world that tearing up a treaty signed with nearly thirty other countries in the European Union by voting for Brexit is a good thing.


  • #4418
    carrickbally
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 66 ✭✭carrickbally


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good evening!

    The EU are being intransigent when the Prime Minister has given key compromises to the EU, in respect to the shape of the transition, in respect to contributions, in respect to citizens rights and how they will be protected in British law (direct effect).

    There are two things the EU could do tomorrow to progress discussion:
    1) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will accept supremacy of the ECJ over Britain's laws.
    2) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will agree a large payment with no transitional terms in return.

    The Danish are starting to make murmurings in agreement.

    The idea that the UK is going to indefinitely stay in transition is nonsense. The Prime Minister could have climbed down any time since the referendum, but she hasn't because she's aiming to deliver the referendum result.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria

    Look you voted to tear up the agreement with the citizens of the democracies of the rest of the EU.

    So just get to hell out of the EU in the morning.

    In addition just put up with the consequences


  • #4419
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good evening!

    The EU are being intransigent when the Prime Minister has given key compromises to the EU, in respect to the shape of the transition, in respect to contributions, in respect to citizens rights and how they will be protected in British law (direct effect).

    There are two things the EU could do tomorrow to progress discussion:
    1) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will accept supremacy of the ECJ over Britain's laws.
    2) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will agree a large payment with no transitional terms in return.

    The Danish are starting to make murmurings in agreement.

    The idea that the UK is going to indefinitely stay in transition is nonsense. The Prime Minister could have climbed down any time since the referendum, but she hasn't because she's aiming to deliver the referendum result.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria

    There is one thing the UK could do to facilitate that. Give up on the ridiculous idea of being in the single market while wanting to avoid the above in bold.


  • #4420
    flutered
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭flutered


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good evening!

    The EU are being intransigent when the Prime Minister has given key compromises to the EU, in respect to the shape of the transition, in respect to contributions, in respect to citizens rights and how they will be protected in British law (direct effect).

    There are two things the EU could do tomorrow to progress discussion:
    1) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will accept supremacy of the ECJ over Britain's laws.
    2) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will agree a large payment with no transitional terms in return.

    The Danish are starting to make murmurings in agreement.

    The idea that the UK is going to indefinitely stay in transition is nonsense. The Prime Minister could have climbed down any time since the referendum, but she hasn't because she's aiming to deliver the referendum result.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria
    the eu claims that the ball is in the uk court, so its their turn to serve


  • #4421
    solodeogloria
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    flutered wrote: »
    the eu claims that the ball is in the uk court, so its their turn to serve

    Good evening!

    Is this seriously the standard of posting we've arrived at?

    What do you expect me to say to you in reply, "Well Theresa May said it's in their court"?

    Cop on, we can do better than this.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


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  • #4422
    flutered
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭flutered


    demfad wrote: »
    Lets take just on Strand of the GFA: North South Cooperation

    Implementation bodies:
    • Language Body
    • Special EU Programmes
    • InterTradeIreland
    • Foyle, Carlingford and Irish Lights
    • Waterways Ireland
    • Food Safety Promotion Board

    Having the EU, customs Union and particularly single market as a base allows these bodies to do what they need to do.
    The special EU programme's would obviously be gone.
    IntertradeIreland would now have to concentrate solely in limiting the affects of disastrous trade/non trade barriers/delays at border/Country of origin Issues, non recognition of qualification issues, movement of workers issues, legal differences.
    Legal differences would now complicate waterways operations out of practicality. Food safety would need to concentrate on regulatory divergence rather than: food safety.

    Let's look at areas of Significant progress in these strands and how Brexit undermines, changes, destroys them.
    • Trade and Business Development:
      Enough said here.
    • Roads and Road Safety
      Legal uncertainty, EU funding gone.
    • Child Protection
      Legal uncertainty, regulatory divergence
    • Health
      Legal uncertainty, regulatory divergence
    • Animal Health and Welfare
      Movement of animals cross border complicated and prohibited by CO rules.
    • Environment
      One environmental policy via EU shaterred. Every indication that UK will need to reduce environmental regulations to allow the big corpos in via the US deal. No agreement in thsi vital issue.
    • Tourism
      Legal uncerainty, delays, complication.
    • Inland Waterways & Loughs
    • EU Structural Funds
      Gone.
    • Cross Border Mobility
      No longer mobile. Hard border most likely.

    This is but one Strand of what the GFA was set up to IMPROVE on this Island.
    This is the tangible output of the benefits of the GFA.
    With Brexit, North/South cooperation/integration is set back to a place worse than before the GFA was signed. Except now there are legal, trade, social and political barriers to getting back.
    The function of many of these bodies changes to trying to reduce the adverse
    affects of Brexit rather than doing what they were set up to do.

    This is not looking at the legal aspects of the GFA which will be challenged I am sure. We simply don't know legally if the GFA has been breached.

    What we can say is that Brexit will in effect destroy it. The GFA was designed for an Island/Islands wholly inside the single market with regulatory and legal equivalence to base cooperation and progress on.

    Brexit renders that design obsolete.
    what will the opinion be of the 26 eu countrys be of tearing up an agreement that they were co signitures to


  • #4423
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good evening!

    Is this seriously the standard of posting we've arrived at?

    What do you expect me to say to you in reply, "Well Theresa May said it's in their court"?

    Cop on, we can do better than this.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria

    Quite frankly yes, it is. You're posts consists of inconsistencies with former posts and empty platitudes about the EU being unreasonable. You're unable to provide any substance.


  • #4424
    PeadarCo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,028 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    solodeogloria wrote:
    What do you expect me to say to you in reply, "Well Theresa May said it's in their court"?

    Well that seems to be what UK government has been saying for since brexit started. The UK has decided its leaving. Please over us the deal we want. The EU can't and isn't going to stop the UK from leaving. The EU has said if you want to have a trade agreement that goes beyond WTO rules there's our demands. If they are unacceptable to the UK, it leaves and goes trading under WTO rules ( assuming it gets over the objections of other WTO members)

    The analogy made be crude but it sums up the situation. The UK badly needs some sort of deal. Its the reason there is so much debate and division in the UK over it. For the EU no politician will lose their job. It is up to the UK to offer a deal that's acceptable to the EU not the other way around.


  • #4425
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,997 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Is this seriously the standard of posting we've arrived at?

    What do you expect me to say to you in reply, "Well Theresa May said it's in their court"?

    Cop on, we can do better than this.


    I agree we can be better on here, like answering posts that you replied to. Any opinion that the UK makes very little from the gold exports, even if it shows as exports on the books?

    Any answer to my post here where I asked where you got your figures from? Also, any opinion on the job losses in Northern Ireland alone, could be 4000, when Boeing employs around 2000 employees in the UK as a whole?


  • #4426
    mickoneill31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 855 ✭✭✭mickoneill31


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good evening!

    The EU are being intransigent when the Prime Minister has given key compromises to the EU, in respect to the shape of the transition, in respect to contributions, in respect to citizens rights and how they will be

    What compromise in terms of transition? They asked for a transition. That's not a compromise. That's a request.

    And in respect to contributions? They said they'd continue making payments during the transition period. That's big of them.


  • #4427
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Enzokk wrote: »
    I agree we can be better on here, like answering posts that you replied to. Any opinion that the UK makes very little from the gold exports, even if it shows as exports on the books?

    Any answer to my post here where I asked where you got your figures from? Also, any opinion on the job losses in Northern Ireland alone, could be 4000, when Boeing employs around 2000 employees in the UK as a whole?

    Enzokk I don't know why you bother. You won't get one that makes sense.


  • #4428
    ambro25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,986 ✭✭✭ambro25


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    The EU are being intransigent when the Prime Minister has given key compromises to the EU, in respect to the shape of the transition, in respect to contributions, in respect to citizens rights and how they will be protected in British law (direct effect).
    The EU is not being "intransigent", it is very skilfully negotiating on behalf of 27 Member States. You're just not seeing the skill for your bias.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    There are two things the EU could do tomorrow to progress discussion:
    1) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will accept supremacy of the ECJ over Britain's laws.
    2) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will agree a large payment with no transitional terms in return.
    The EU has already done that to an extent, with its "the ball is actually in the UK Court" pre-emptive strike of today.

    Which, pragmatically, confirms that there isn't going to be any trading or transition talks this side of 2018.

    See, negotiations are progressing :pac:

    Now what, solo?

    [I really should stop asking you more uncomfortable questions which you're just going to ignore like all the others


  • #4429
    flutered
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭flutered


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good evening!

    Is this seriously the standard of posting we've arrived at?

    What do you expect me to say to you in reply, "Well Theresa May said it's in their court"?

    Cop on, we can do better than this.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria
    the quote i use was given this morning before the uk premier could ask the question she was supposed to ask, i did not ask you anything, you are asuming, something the uk goverment is doing quite a lot of in recent months, the uk agreed on a road map, they require this changed, because they ask it to be changed, its like an old tv program called it will be all right on the night


  • #4430
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    An interesting twist : confirmed that Brexit can be reversed by the UK govt :

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-latest-stopped-secret-legal-advice-a7990716.html


  • #4431
    flutered
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭flutered


    mickoneill31 wrote: »
    What compromise in terms of transition? They asked for a transition. That's not a compromise. That's a request.

    And in respect to contributions? They said they'd continue making payments during the transition period. That's big of them.
    both are something the uk think they can withdraw when and if the like to, but they cannot as the eu is taking every offer as correct, not as in a game the uk seem to be playing


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  • #4432
    flutered
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭flutered


    the following link give one a better view of the uk goverments position on brexit, the are looking to the populance for ideas
    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/government-pleads-ideas-apos-no-170306416.html


  • #4433
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,997 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    flutered wrote: »
    the following link give one a better view of the uk goverments position on brexit, the are looking to the populance for ideas
    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/government-pleads-ideas-apos-no-170306416.html


    Seems very late in the day to start asking for advice from business on what can be done. I think the Vote Leave leader was correct that triggering article 50 was a mistake, especially with so little preparation done from the UK side.

    Theresa May just did her speech as reported in the press and the EU Commission already replied to her speech. So you had the situation where she was claiming that the ball was in the EU's court after the EU already said its not. So why did she say it then when she already knew the answer? Will she ignore the answer because it was given before her speech?

    Then on a question from Ed Miliband about how the transition period she talked about would differ from EU membership the answer was that after March 2019 the UK would no longer be members of the single market or customs union, but that they should be able to operate on the same rules and regulations. I think his reaction to the answer says it all to be honest,

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/917450952143200256
    "Whats that mean?"

    So we are still no clearer to what the UK wants, how they want it or how they will go about it. All we know is that the ball is in the EU's court to allow the UK to start discussing trade and to get a deal that suits both parties.

    Government Pleads For Ideas For ‘No Deal’ Brexit Customs Arrangements


  • #4434
    BoatMad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    So we are still no clearer to what the UK wants, how they want it or how they will go about it. All we know is that the ball is in the EU's court to allow the UK to start discussing trade and to get a deal that suits both parties.

    The fact remains , the UK has no leverage , was nuts in triggering Article 50 without a worked up plan , still has no worked up plan

    If the UK wishes to remain in the Customs union, for a period, thats fine, but it cant cherry pick what rules it wishes to apply and who has jurisdiction over dispute resolutions

    also 2 years is nonsense, any meaningful plan needs about 6-8 years , The idea that you can dismantle 40 years in 2 is bonkers

    The " ball isnt in the EU court ", the ball isnt in a court at all, the UK Gov is entirely delusional and dysfunctional at present. I predict a GE before Brexit anyway


  • #4435
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,522 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Here's the thing UK don't appear to get; let's say EU goes ahead and starts talking FTA with them. They get the best FTA in the world with free banking access, no tariffs and the whole nine yards. That FTA is still not going to be approved until the basic 3 questions have been resolved to EU's satisfaction level. It's one package and no amount of cherry picking attempts is going to change that so why not simply grow a pair, meet weekly and hammer it out once and for all?


  • #4436
    BoatMad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Nody wrote: »
    Here's the thing UK don't appear to get; let's say EU goes ahead and starts talking FTA with them. They get the best FTA in the world with free banking access, no tariffs and the whole nine yards. That FTA is still not going to be approved until the basic 3 questions have been resolved to EU's satisfaction level. It's one package and no amount of cherry picking attempts is going to change that so why not simply grow a pair, meet weekly and hammer it out once and for all?

    not to mention any agreement is subject to all 27 member states ratification and in ireland that means a referendum


  • #4437
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    BoatMad wrote: »
    not to mention any agreement is subject to all 27 member states ratification and in ireland that means a referendum

    At least with our referendums they let us sit repeats when we give the wrong answer.


  • #4438
    Rain Ascending
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 172 ✭✭Rain Ascending


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    There are two things the EU could do tomorrow to progress discussion:
    1) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will accept supremacy of the ECJ over Britain's laws.
    2) Agree that there isn't a likelihood that the UK will agree a large payment with no transitional terms in return.

    The second item listed, the question of payments, is a question of the right dance steps being made in this negotiation tango. Remember that we have two basic principles to follow in the negotiation:
    (a) Substantive progress is needed on the three issues before moving to other aspects of the post-Brexit relationship.
    (b) Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

    A possible way forward would be
    1. Barnier makes very positive noises about being in favour of a transition period, assuming we can get beyond the three issues.
    2. Davis and the UK negotiation team engage more fully on what are the accepted liabilities and what are not.
    3. The gap between the UK and EU positions start to close, allowing Barnier to claim substantive progress, but not complete agreement.
    4. Davis and Barnier then hammer out the terms of the transition period.
    5. Deadlock occurs on the final details of both the transition agreement and the divorce payment.
    6. Compromises are made at the twelfth hour (around September next year) on both sides.
    7. Both sides claim victory.


    On your first item, namely the UK getting out from being answerable to the ECJ, I don't think that will be a problem after the transition period. It may limit what EU elements the UK can sign up to (e.g. Horizon 2020, Erasmus, Euratom, etc.), but I don't think that any serious players in the EU27 misunderstand where the current UK government wants to end up.

    During the transition period, May already accepted today that the ECJ's role won't change. From the Guardian:
    ...the prime minister said a transition deal “may mean we will start off with European court of justice still governing rules we’re part of for that period”.
    All this depends on neither side painting themselves into a corner ... or having done so, being unwilling to get one's feet a bit messy during the walk back out of said corner...


  • #4439
    Nate--IRL--
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    BoatMad wrote: »
    not to mention any agreement is subject to all 27 member states ratification and in ireland that means a referendum

    Are you sure? Does ratifying Brexit require a constitutional amendment?

    Nate


  • #4440
    BoatMad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    At least with our referendums they let us sit repeats when we give the wrong answer.

    sure every few years we have to revise the constitution , take thing out we just put in etc , go out and confirm the same bunch of politicians,etc

    Terrible thing democracy , asking people the same question every so often , never catch on.


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  • #4441
    carrickbally
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 66 ✭✭carrickbally


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    At least with our referendums they let us sit repeats when we give the wrong answer.

    Well no they recognise that in a democracy people change their minds.


This discussion has been closed.
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