Brexit discussion thread II

murphaph · 29-09-2017 08:01AM

jm08 wrote: »

Something I came across from Policy Exchange (Tory think tank that Ray Basset is involved in) in a document on Brixit & Agric.

The highest WTO trade tariffs are on food, particularly on dairy (about 30-40%) - then you have the EU food regs and standards. No wonder NI farmers want a 5 year transition!

Policy Exchange thinks that Brexit is a great opportunity for the UK to save the environment by basically forgetting about farming and growing more trees!

https://policyexchange.org.uk/publication/farming-tomorrow/

If another few percent of NI food gets exported to the EU then it could be argued that even if overall NI "exports" more to GB that it may still make sense for NI to remain in the customs union, if tariffs and regulations of the remaining industrial sectors are lower/simpler.

Still sure that the DUP will flat out refuse this and would collapse the government should it indicate a willingness to discuss it.

murphaph · 29-09-2017 08:03AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The EU parliament is suggesting that the border be placed in the Irish sea. This would mean that NI remain in the single market. Great for the North, bad for unionists as it will be "different " to the main land.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-border-guy-verhofstadt-single-market-customs-union-european-parliament-a7972596.html

In fairness to the parliament it's a very concrete proposal. We've had too much waffle up to now. Even if it's rejected by the UK, it invites a counter offer.

Christy42 · 29-09-2017 08:14AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Given that Britain wants to quickly move on to trade talks whereas the EU is in no hurry and wants to agree citizen's rights, the bill and the border first, it would seem that, ironically, the EU is using Ireland as a bargaining chip. A trump card that Britain had planned to play. The phrase 'hoisted by your own petard' springs to mind.

Who would get the tariffs on goods from the UK to NI? Who would control the border given it is within the UK but would be an EU border? The article does not go into much detail.

Still the best solution so far.

Calina · 29-09-2017 08:15AM

On the NHS there is nothing the EU can do to protect it because privatisation by hook or crook is and has been Tory policy for years. This is why Hunt is Secretary of State for Health.

Many things have invited counter offer from the UK. Counterfluff is what has materialised.

ambro25 · 29-09-2017 08:55AM

Well, at any rate, fun is highly likely to be had in Manchester this weekend:

Boris Johnson faces calls to be sacked after 'breaking Ministerial Code' with hard Brexit event

Some interesting ideas put forth by that Institute of Free Trade (a new hard Brexit think tank):

The Institute for Free Trade wants to roll back EU regulations, including on safety standards and workers’ rights, and unilaterally scrap all import tariffs, even if other countries do not reciprocate. It also believes that foreign aid should be slashed and supports allowing chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-injected beef to be sold in the UK.

Credit due where credit is due: outdoing UKIP in the trolling stakes takes some effort, but they still managed it!

murphaph · 29-09-2017 09:07AM

Christy42 wrote: »

Who would get the tariffs on goods from the UK to NI? Who would control the border given it is within the UK but would be an EU border? The article does not go into much detail.

Still the best solution so far.

The UK Treasury would get tariffs on goods "exported" to GB. Presumably the Treasury would also receive the tariffs on goods exported from GB to NI ports but a lot of goods go through Dublin on the way to NI. Those tariffs would have to go to the Irish Revenue. The tariff amounts would be the same however as they'd be the EU's external tariffs, north or south.

I think the sums are, in the grand scheme of things, are probably small enough that nobody really cares.

I suspect the border ports in NI would be manned by UK Border Force people, with occasional spot checks by Brussels. Irish Revenue officers are extremely unlikely to be chosen for this role IMO. It's politically explosive enough without Irish officials working the front line. Might be some special EU team, made up of other EU nationals.

Even this "clean" solution clearly throws up many issues.

Still can't believe it'll get any support in the UK, at least for now.

The Rape of Lucretia · 29-09-2017 09:12AM

"A survey of 2,220 people found that 34% of Leave voters admitted holding racist attitudes compared to 18% of Remain voters.

The study, conducted by the National Centre for Social Research, found 26% of Britons still described themselves as "very" or "a little" prejudiced towards people of other races."

So Brexit was swung by racism. In case anyone still had any doubts.

Jim2007 · 29-09-2017 09:22AM

murphaph wrote: »

Those tariffs would have to go to the Irish Revenue.

The goods would not be exported to the EU, so no tariffs apply. There would need to be a bonded process, but that is it. Same as current process for goods moving south through the Swiss Alps.

Thomas__ · 29-09-2017 09:33AM

Calina wrote: »

On the NHS there is nothing the EU can do to protect it because privatisation by hook or crook is and has been Tory policy for years. This is why Hunt is Secretary of State for Health.

Many things have invited counter offer from the UK. Counterfluff is what has materialised.

Never noticed that the EU ever had any interest in protecting the NHS for by other examples, the EU is more championing privatisation. That means that even if the UK would remain an EU member state and would privatise the NHS, the EU had probably no objections to it at all.

Calina · 29-09-2017 09:49AM

The NHS comment was in rrsponse to Enzok

jm08 · 29-09-2017 10:08AM

Christy42 wrote: »

Who would get the tariffs on goods from the UK to NI? Who would control the border given it is within the UK but would be an EU border? The article does not go into much detail.

Still the best solution so far.

Westminister could devolve tax collecting powers to Stormont (it was going to change corporate tax rate for NI anyway). EU goods inspectors would have to be at the ports on the whole island of Ireland I think.

Nody · 29-09-2017 10:19AM

Thomas__ wrote: »

Never noticed that the EU ever had any interest in protecting the NHS for by other examples, the EU is more championing privatisation. That means that even if the UK would remain an EU member state and would privatise the NHS, the EU had probably no objections to it at all.

Seeing how national Healthcare is executed is not with in EU's scope they would not say anything about it; same way they would not comment on the color of a nation's flag...

jm08 · 29-09-2017 10:30AM

Chicken safety scandal unravelling in UK.

UK's top supplier of supermarket chicken fiddles food safety dates

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/28/uks-top-supplier-of-supermarket-chicken-fiddles-food-safety-dates

Informative that its the Guardian and ITV have detected it, not the UK food processing inspectors as happened in Ireland with horsemeat scandal.

Huexotzingo · 29-09-2017 10:32AM

Here's an interesting article by Sky News on the effect of Gold "exports".

Britain's real exports to outside the EU are actually far lower than official figures suggest.

Professor Moriarty · 29-09-2017 10:36AM

Huexotzingo wrote: »

Here's an interesting article by Sky News on the effect of Gold "exports".

Britain's real exports to outside the EU are actually far lower than official figures suggest.

Very interesting indeed. Can't see the Torygraph copying this article somehow. The last paragraph is telling:

In the fourth quarter of last year, a sharp outflow of gold showed up as a sudden spike in exports, causing some economists to conclude that Britain's manufacturers were starting to benefit from a post-Brexit jump in confidence.
In fact, the spike was primarily a sign of investors pulling gold out of vaults in London.

Enzokk · 29-09-2017 11:02AM

Huexotzingo wrote: »

Here's an interesting article by Sky News on the effect of Gold "exports".

Britain's real exports to outside the EU are actually far lower than official figures suggest.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Very interesting indeed. Can't see the Torygraph copying this article somehow. The last paragraph is telling:

In the fourth quarter of last year, a sharp outflow of gold showed up as a sudden spike in exports, causing some economists to conclude that Britain's manufacturers were starting to benefit from a post-Brexit jump in confidence.
In fact, the spike was primarily a sign of investors pulling gold out of vaults in London.

Another Brexit myth being exposed. When will people realise that most of it is just smoke and mirrors? How many are there now?

The UK always had sovereignty over the EU.

The UK could control EU immigration more to ensure that people don't come over just to claim benefits.

The immigration of the EU doesn't bring down wages in a significant way and it is non-EU immigration that has more of an effect on wages.

The NHS will not get better as it is closely tied to the EU for staff and funding.

demfad · 29-09-2017 11:12AM

ambro25 wrote: »

Well, at any rate, fun is highly likely to be had in Manchester this weekend:

Boris Johnson faces calls to be sacked after 'breaking Ministerial Code' with hard Brexit event

Some interesting ideas put forth by that Institute of Free Trade (a new hard Brexit think tank):
Credit due where credit is due: outdoing UKIP in the trolling stakes takes some effort, but they still managed it!

This looks like a rehash of the 'Atlantic Bridge' which caused Liam Fox to resign in disgrace in 2011.

The Atlantic Council was partnered with American Legislative Exchange Council. This is a Koch run (I believe) conservative think tank (bigger than Heritage foundation). It creates model bills (prefab bills to hand to legislators for "reducing regulation and individual and corporate taxation, combating illegal immigration, loosening environmental regulations, tightening voter identification rules, weakening labor unions, and opposing gun control"

The partnership was anti single market wanting the low regulation US to be able to trade with UK (and single market if UK could influence regulations).

Clearly, Liam Fox was chosen for his current role based on these connections. This proves hard Brexit was always the plan (otherwise no trade deal with US possible, no need for Fox).

Johnson's association with these explains his hard Brexit recent push.

It will be interesting to see the Tory line on Johnsons using State property.
In the US the line between corporate power and government is gone: corporations rule that country. ALEC write much of the legislation now in Trumpland.

Johnson looks like he is the UK puppet for these guys to be honest. There are plenty of disaster capitalists in their number and as with Lagatum a disorderly Brexit is not a disaster.

murphaph · 29-09-2017 12:07PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

The goods would not be exported to the EU, so no tariffs apply. There would need to be a bonded process, but that is it. Same as current process for goods moving south through the Swiss Alps.

Surely if goods move from GB to any part of Ireland under this proposal, it would be considered "exported to EU" if NI remains in the EU customs union, thus tariffs would apply?

solodeogloria · 29-09-2017 01:01PM

murphaph wrote: »

In fairness to the parliament it's a very concrete proposal. We've had too much waffle up to now. Even if it's rejected by the UK, it invites a counter offer.

Good afternoon!

It seems like you think anything that comes from Brussels is "concrete".

There's nothing concrete about it, the UK won't agree to erecting a hard border within the United Kingdom.

A solution on the border will require flexibility from both the UK and the European Union.

I'm starting to think that this phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat however. This phrase is being interpreted in Brussels as complete agreement with the EU's negotiating principles. This won't happen, we require flexibility on both sides for a deal.

In the event that Brussels are not willing to be flexible, I think it's time to work on the assumption of no deal.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

whatstherush · 29-09-2017 01:15PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

There's nothing concrete about it, the UK won't agree to erecting a hard border within the United Kingdom.

Hold on, you have been preaching for weeks that border with NI/IRL out of the CU was nothing to worry about and should be solved by IRL and the EU and now if that border is moved to the Irish sea it's something that won't even be entertained by the UK. Could not your fore mentioned "creativity and flexibility" be brought to bare on the issue since that's all that's needed to solve any issues involving border treaties. Oh and let's not forget the blue sky technology, that will surely help too!

Calina · 29-09-2017 01:17PM

The EU has always been flexible. Opt outs from Schengen. From the euro. From the Social charter. Rebate.

The UK takes flexibility for granted. And now it demands it.

The Rape of Lucretia · 29-09-2017 01:45PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

A solution on the border will require flexibility from both the UK and the European Union.

But what is 'flexible' ?

Creative, imaginative, flexible - are these not just place-holder terms from the UK that at the minute are just more politically expedient than writing :

"we havent a clue what to do on this point. Maybe someone else does - EU ? Irl? No. Bummer. Yes, we are asking for a solution to this issue that is simply an impossiblity. We know that fundamentally. But we hoped you might....No? OK. Anyway, lets just call the solution that doesnt or ever can exist, a flexible and imaginative one for the moment, because a great portion of the Brexit voters still havent been brought up to the level to understand this point. Thanks Brussels, you really are a brick".

LeinsterDub · 29-09-2017 01:47PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I'm starting to think that this phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat however. This phrase is being interpreted in Brussels as complete agreement with the EU's negotiating principles. This won't happen, we require flexibility on both sides for a deal.

You think the phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat how about this phrase "Any progress"

No progress on NI. The UK have proposed an imaginary camera system and that is all
No progress on outstanding liabilities, in fact the UK is refusing to even discuss this
Little to no progress on citizen rights, the UK has made a weak offer with no means of enforcement other that trust us we are nice guys.

Zubeneschamali · 29-09-2017 01:47PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

In the event that Brussels are not willing to be flexible, I think it's time to work on the assumption of no deal.

No deal will be very expensive for the UK - an economic crash worse than 2008. GDP dropped 6.5% between 2008-09. The UK governments hard Brexit estimate back during Project Fear was 6%, but they didn't plan the kind of chaotic hard brexit which is the only possibility now.

So maybe double it - 12% drop, 12 years to get back on trend?

The Rape of Lucretia · 29-09-2017 01:50PM

Calina wrote: »

The UK takes flexibility for granted. And now it demands it.

Worse, it doesnt even know what that is, but is asking the EU to figure it out for it. Its a bit like saying : "look, I know we are negotiating here, but we are having a bit of trouble figuring out our side of things. Could you do it for us, because we havent a clue really what we want ourselves. We werent really expecting to have this whole Brexit thing in the first place, so, you guys are the experts. Go on. Do our homework too, please".

The Rape of Lucretia · 29-09-2017 01:54PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I'm starting to think that this phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat however.

No way. But his is the attitude that the UK is affecting as well. Sure, its issue and big worry is the post-Brexit relationship. And that is what it want to discuss, and the clock is ticking. But it seems to forget all the time, that there is a divorce to happen first. If they really knuckled down on this one, accepted they have outstanding bills to pay, accepted that they must solve the issue of EU citizens living in Britain, and accepted the Irish Border needs a solution where they, not EU, will have to yield to an unpalatable solution, then the Brexiting could progress. And then the post Brexit relationship. Phrase having your cake and eating it, is closely followed in the apt stakes on this issue, the one about the cart and the horse.

The Rape of Lucretia · 29-09-2017 01:56PM

The reality is, there has been no progress on these core issues as reitterated by Macron the other day. They are the crunch Brexit connundrums to resolve. Yet last week May was still waffling on closeness, future relationship, platitudes.

ambro25 · 29-09-2017 01:58PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

In the event that Brussels are not willing to be flexible, I think it's time to work on the assumption of no deal.

I think it's high time that you understood that the EU27 held the vast majority of the cards -and all the high ones- prior to Ms May triggering Article 50; have been holding the entire deck since Ms May triggered Article 50; wherein "our way or the highway" has been the EU27's playbook all along.

Far from a rat, "sufficient progress" is the yardstick against which the UK position is measured relative to the EU27's playbook.

The fact Mr Davis himself agreed to it on day 1 of the negotiations, and that Ms May has been very slowly but equally surely steering the UK towards it since June 2016, is neither here nor there: time is running out faster than the domestic margin of political manoeuvre in the UK can be enlarged, due to continuing infighting.

The damage is done, and the UK is <still> snookered.

Zubeneschamali · 29-09-2017 01:59PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

If they really knuckled down on this one, accepted they have outstanding bills to pay, accepted that they must solve the issue of EU citizens living in Britain, and accepted the Irish Border needs a solution where they, not EU, will have to yield to an unpalatable solution, then the Brexiting could progress.

No, if they did those things the government would collapse, there would be an election and the current Government and Brexit negotiating team would be out on their ear.

Professor Moriarty · 29-09-2017 02:01PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You think the phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat how about this phrase "Any progress"
No progress on NI. The UK have proposed an imaginary camera system and that is all

No progress on outstanding liabilities, in fact the UK is refusing to even discuss this

Little to no progress on citizen rights, the UK has made a weak offer with no means of enforcement other that trust us we are nice guys.

The Head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, had this to say today:

“At the end of October, we will not have sufficient progress, I’m saying that there will be no sufficient progress from now until October unless miracles would happen.”

But the British press will continue to publish Tory lies, in particular Davis's delusional spin, that a breakthrough is imminent. None so blind as those who will not see.

Brexit discussion thread II

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