Brexit discussion thread II

ancapailldorcha · 22-09-2017 04:24PM

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

I don't know. Who'd want to be PM at the moment? Whoever signs off on the Brexit deal is going to get it in the neck, from their party and from the electorate. Why be the patsy when there's already one sitting in Downing St?

Vince Cable seems to be quite keen on the position going so far as to say that his winning an election is a possibility. His party are enthusiastically opposed to Brexit and winning is the only way they can stop it.

Jeremy Corbyn would likely be pressured into single market membership by the unions and his predominantly young backers. The young tend to be more favorable towards the EU while the unions aren't going to want to see any more austerity and job losses.

A Little Pony · 22-09-2017 04:24PM

The establishment in the government can try and delay and delay all they like, it's not going to work in the long run.

Nody · 22-09-2017 04:29PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why would the EU agree to any of those options (other than no FTA)? They allow Britain to have it's cake and eat it by trading relatively freely with the EU while simultaneously forging new trade agreements with other countries. Remember, the EU is adamant that Britain's trading position with the EU post Brexit must be less advantageous than their current status.

In so many words; healthy yearly donations to the EU budget would be my guess but I'm not an EU negotiator

Also Independent.co.uk put a fun spin on May's speech; the only new information to resolve the current lock is to request 2 more years to negotiate... How is that suppose to resolve any of the current issues?

A Little Pony · 22-09-2017 04:34PM

Nody wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why would the EU agree to any of those options (other than no FTA)? They allow Britain to have it's cake and eat it by trading relatively freely with the EU while simultaneously forging new trade agreements with other countries. Remember, the EU is adamant that Britain's trading position with the EU post Brexit must be less advantageous than their current status.

In so many words; healthy yearly donations to the EU budget would be my guess but I'm not an EU negotiator

Also Independent.co.uk put a fun spin on May's speech; the only new information to resolve the current lock is to request 2 more years to negotiate... How is that suppose to resolve any of the current issues?

She and her ilk don't want Brexit, so it's delay tactics but it's ultimately not going to work. It's like trying to stop a tidal wave, it's eventually going to happen. The country is governed by morons with no spine and no conviction.

Professor Moriarty · 22-09-2017 04:35PM

Nody wrote: »

In so many words; healthy yearly donations to the EU budget would be my guess but I'm not an EU negotiator

Also Independent.co.uk put a fun spin on May's speech; the only new information to resolve the current lock is to request 2 more years to negotiate... How is that suppose to resolve any of the current issues?

Britain outside the decision making process but paying truck loads of money to trade? I'd be ok with that!

They nailed it. It's unresolvable, but the Tories' desperate need to cling to power means they can't admit it. So they fudge and fudge and fudge. All the while, they squander whatever goodwill and respect the rest of the EU has left towards Britain. It's actually traitorous.

Professor Moriarty · 22-09-2017 04:37PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

She and her ilk don't want Brexit, so it's delay tactics but it's ultimately not going to work. It's like trying to stop a tidal wave, it's eventually going to happen. The country is governed by morons with no spine and no conviction.

On that we can agree. We can also agree that Brexit will happen. However, I suspect you see it as being a glorious future whereas I see it as being an inglorious clusterfúck.

Nody · 22-09-2017 04:40PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

She and her ilk don't want Brexit, so it's delay tactics but it's ultimately not going to work. It's like trying to stop a tidal wave, it's eventually going to happen. The country is governed by morons with no spine and no conviction.

Dependent who you see as her ilk; there's definitely a big group of Tories that's all for Brexit for reasons related to donations etc. May herself has about as much care for Brexit or remaining as it determines if she gets to remain PM or not; she'd start singing Kim praises if she thought it would buy her another year as PM... That's the part which makes the speech seem odd; what exactly was the point of the speech which in summary delivers no new information/push to resolve current issues, request an expected extension that's already tied to resolving said issues and coming from a government that mainly wants to leave early as possible. The only real reason I can see is to try to placate the business at home etc. but as there appear to be no real progress to resolve the issues (and hence get an extension) I don't really see how much that will work in practice.

A Little Pony · 22-09-2017 04:43PM

Nody wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

She and her ilk don't want Brexit, so it's delay tactics but it's ultimately not going to work. It's like trying to stop a tidal wave, it's eventually going to happen. The country is governed by morons with no spine and no conviction.

Dependent who you see as her ilk; there's definitely a big group of Tories that's all for Brexit for reasons related to donations etc. May herself has about as much care for Brexit or remaining as it determines if she gets to remain PM or not; she'd start singing Kim praises if she thought it would buy her another year as PM... That's the part which makes the speech seem odd; what exactly was the point of the speech which in summary delivers no new information/push to resolve current issues, request an expected extension that's already tied to resolving said issues and coming from a government that mainly wants to leave early as possible. The only real reason I can see is to try to placate the business at home etc. but as there appear to be no real progress to resolve the issues (and hence get an extension) I don't really see how much that will work in practice.

Theresa May is a dead woman walking, she might as well prepare herself for leaving office soon and take her buddies with her. I have no problem with honest and genuine people who supported remain, I have family members in that bracket but at least be honest about it. She has no credibility to remain as Prime Minister or authority.

Professor Moriarty · 22-09-2017 04:49PM

Barnier has released a statement on May's speech. Some key extracts:

The EU will continue to insist on sufficient progress in the key areas of the orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom before opening discussions on the future relationship. Agreeing on the essential principles in these areas will create the trust that is needed for us to build a future relationship together.

The fact that the government of the United Kingdom recognises that leaving the European Union means that it cannot keep all the benefits of membership with fewer obligations than the other Member States is welcome.

Today, for the first time, the United Kingdom government has requested to continue to benefit from access to the Single Market, on current terms, and to continue to benefit from existing cooperation in security. This is for a limited period of up to two years, beyond its withdrawal date, and therefore beyond its departure from the EU institutions. If the European Union so wishes, this new request could be taken into account. It should be examined in light of the European Council guidelines of 29 April 2017: "Should a time-limited prolongation of Union acquis be considered, this would require existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply."

Prime Minister May's statements are a step forward but they must now be translated into a precise negotiating position of the UK government.

We look forward to the United Kingdom's negotiators explaining the concrete implications of Prime Minister Theresa May's speech.

Junkyard Tom · 22-09-2017 05:16PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

"this would require existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply."

In layman's terms:

Okay you can probably stay in the EU for a while but you'e going to follow our rules and that's that.

Professor Moriarty · 22-09-2017 05:19PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

In layman's terms:

Okay you can probably stay in the EU for a while but you'e going to follow our rules and that's that.

Exactly. The Tory spin should be amusing.

flatty · 22-09-2017 05:24PM

That sounds like something he'd prepared earlier.
Lord knows what is going on beneath the surface.

StringerBell · 22-09-2017 05:24PM

I hear the sound of a can being kicked down the road really.

solodeogloria · 22-09-2017 05:26PM

StringerBell wrote: »

I hear the sound of a can being kicked down the road really.

Good evening!

Yes, but that's what the UK requires right now.

Buying time is definitely the right thing to do while it makes major preparations for the next stage in the UK's history. I think the Prime Minister did a great job at presenting her stall and she set the right tone without bending to all of the demands from Brussels.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

A Little Pony · 22-09-2017 05:27PM

StringerBell wrote: »

I hear the sound of a can being kicked down the road really.

Exactly. A waste of everyone's time. Why bother doing that when by 2021 Brexit happens anyway. Pointless panic nonsense by May who just can't handle the heat in the kitchen, well get the hell out then.

demfad · 22-09-2017 05:34PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A Tweet from Bojo:

PM speech was positive, optimistic & dynamic - and rightly disposes of the Norway option! Forwards!

He's nothing but a coward considering his bluff and bluster last weekend.

It is rumoured that he has been boasting since the cabinet meeting that he was able to force May away from a 3 year transition request and a more substantive speech.

His essay last weekend was also no doubt intended to undermine her speech.

Hard for EU to really trust the UK side when the PM could be ousted by a sniping, lying Foreign Secretary at any moment.

LeinsterDub · 22-09-2017 05:36PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

To be honest, I don't think she'll last until Christmas. It's in the EU's interest to continue stonewalling the negotiations. Not least because stonewalling will sow further discontent within an already divided cabinet and a crumbling Tory party will suit the EU's agenda just fine.

Do you honestly think that the EU are stonewalling? From my perspective the EU has set out their stall and are still waiting for the UK to do likewise.

Professor Moriarty · 22-09-2017 05:42PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Do you honestly think that the EU are stonewalling? From my perspective the EU has set out their stall and are still waiting for the UK to do likewise.

I do. It's in their best interests. Remember, the EU never wanted Brexit in the first place. By setting out their stall, i.e. no trade talks until the CTA, Citizens rights, and the Brexit bill are sorted, they are stonewalling Britain. In reality, there is no reason why there couldn't be parallel talks.

Professor Moriarty · 22-09-2017 05:46PM

Good quote from Corbyn:

"...Theresa May and her Conservative cabinet colleagues are spending more time negotiating with each other rather than with the EU."

Junkyard Tom · 22-09-2017 05:53PM

StringerBell wrote: »

I hear the sound of a can being kicked down the road really.

In stark terms, in a few years, a lot of the people who voted to leave the EU will be dead while an awful lot of young people, who tend to be more outward looking, will be voting for anyone but the Tories.

LeinsterDub · 22-09-2017 06:05PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I do. It's in their best interests. Remember, the EU never wanted Brexit in the first place. By setting out their stall, i.e. no trade talks until the CTA, Citizens rights, and the Brexit bill are sorted, they are stonewalling Britain. In reality, there is no reason why there couldn't be parallel talks.

But the UK hasn't even engaged meaningfully on any of these issues. I honestly thought the budget issue would have been in full blown discussion at this stage. The UK hasn't even agreed a means to calculate their liabilities. They swing back and forth between a vague "of course we'll pay our liabilities" to "we'll pay nothing without a trade agreement". Remember the UK agreed to this timetable after refusing to have the fight of the summer. What is the point in discussing trade if all those discussions will be rendered null because the UK can't even engage on the EU's redline issues?

Professor Moriarty · 22-09-2017 06:13PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

But the UK hasn't even engaged meaningfully on any of these issues. I honestly thought the budget issue would have been in full blown discussion at this stage. The UK hasn't even agreed a means to calculate their liabilities. They swing back and forth between a vague "of course we'll pay our liabilities" to "we'll pay nothing without a trade agreement". Remember the UK agreed to this timetable after refusing to have the fight of the summer. What is the point in discussing trade if all those discussions will be rendered null because the UK can't even engage on the EU's redline issues?

It can't engage meaningfully. It literally doesn't know what outcome it wants so it can't put forward a negotiating position. The one important matter it wants settled (because indigenous and multinational companies are very skittish about Brexit) is what kind of trade agreement it will have with the EU post Brexit. But the EU refuses to engage on that matter until the CTA, Brexit bill and Citizens' Rights have been agreed (stonewalling). Britain has no concrete position on these matters. So negotiations essentially haven't even begun. Today's speech was basically a capitulation and a plea for leniency.

LeinsterDub · 22-09-2017 06:22PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It can't engage meaningfully. It literally doesn't know what outcome it wants so it can't put forward a negotiating position. The one important matter it wants settled (because indigenous and multinational companies are very skittish about Brexit) is what kind of trade agreement it will have with the EU post Brexit. But the EU refuses to engage on that matter until the CTA, Brexit bill and Citizens' Rights have been agreed (stonewalling). Britain has no concrete position on these matters. So negotiations essentially haven't even begun. Today's speech was basically a capitulation and a plea for leniency.

I honestly don't see how the UK being incompetent equates to EU stonewalling. If the UK had it's house in order from day one the EU may have judged that sufficient progress had been made to open trade discussions.

The UK should be shown leniency when it figures out how its not going to reignite a bloody sectarian war and not make millions of people second class citizens. If they managed that I would actually let them off the money.

Professor Moriarty · 22-09-2017 06:33PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I honestly don't see how the UK being incompetent equates to EU stonewalling. If the UK had it's house in order from day one the EU may have judged that sufficient progress had been made to open trade discussions.

The UK should be shown leniency when it figures out how its not going to reignite a bloody sectarian war and not make millions of people second class citizens. If they managed that I would actually let them off the money.

The EU could easily have agreed to parallel talks which would probably have assuaged companies' fears. But they didn't, knowing that the Brexit bill and the CTA in particular would be very difficult.

Verhofstadt had this to say today about Ireland after May's speech:

Apart from citizens' rights and the financial settlement, the EU always made clear that the Irish question is one of our priorities. I didn't hear yet how the UK government wants to avoid a hard border or physical checks on the island of Ireland. This only seems possible if Northern Ireland remains part of the Customs Union.

The DUP will be thrilled. Here's his full statement. It's not particularly conciliatory.

blanch152 · 22-09-2017 06:40PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU could easily have agreed to parallel talks which would probably have assuaged companies' fears. But they didn't, knowing that the Brexit bill and the CTA in particular would be very difficult.

Verhofstadt had this to say today about Ireland after May's speech:

Apart from citizens' rights and the financial settlement, the EU always made clear that the Irish question is one of our priorities. I didn't hear yet how the UK government wants to avoid a hard border or physical checks on the island of Ireland. This only seems possible if Northern Ireland remains part of the Customs Union.

The DUP will be thrilled. Here's his full statement. It's not particularly conciliatory.

I wouldn't call it stonewalling.

The EU are insisting that the UK stick to the agenda they agreed. It is a matter of trust. It is also a matter of stronger negotiating position. May was practically begging for help and the EU aren't listening. Like a parent with a schoolchild, they are telling the UK to do their homework before they can play with the big boys.

LeinsterDub · 22-09-2017 06:42PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU could easily have agreed to parallel talks which would probably have assuaged companies' fears. But they didn't, knowing that the Brexit bill and the CTA in particular would be very difficult.

The EU isn't on the same side as the UK it's not their job to assure UK companies. This is the UK's mess and while the EU shouldn't be vendictive it's also not their job to play nanny to the UK's economic confidence.

A Little Pony · 22-09-2017 06:43PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

StringerBell wrote: »

I hear the sound of a can being kicked down the road really.

In stark terms, in a few years, a lot of the people who voted to leave the EU will be dead while an awful lot of young people, who tend to be more outward looking, will be voting for anyone but the Tories.

Why do people always use this argument? It's been used for generations and generations but it's just bollocks. The world does not work like that.

Capt'n Midnight · 22-09-2017 06:52PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Vince Cable seems to be quite keen on the position going so far as to say that his winning an election is a possibility. His party are enthusiastically opposed to Brexit and winning is the only way they can stop it.

He was even going on about how he could be the next PM.

They got 7.4% of the national vote last time.

At one stage he'd have been considered the only sane leader left in England. Now someone is going to have to remind him how First Past The Post works in practice. Must be something in the water over there.

Capt'n Midnight · 22-09-2017 07:03PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Why do people always use this argument? It's been used for generations and generations but it's just bollocks. The world does not work like that.

It's actually how the world works. Old ideas die with their last believers die. It's happened to religions, languages and even politics.

‘One thing which is just worth having in mind: 2 per cent of the older part of the electorate die every year - they are 70 per cent Conservative’
- Lord Heseltine

Probably a good time to remind anyone interested that support for staying in the EU was 99% amongst Full Time Students here.

Junkyard Tom · 22-09-2017 07:03PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Why do people always use this argument? It's been used for generations and generations but it's just bollocks. The world does not work like that.

Have you looked at the polls lately? Have you been following the local elections in Britain? Have you been following the Labour-led crowd-funding for targeting CON's Westminster seats? Have you taken a look at the seats that the CON's are holding onto with slim majorities? I doubt you have.

The CON's are taking a pasting. If things keep going the way they are the CON's won't have a majority again for a generation.

Brexit discussion thread II

Comments