Brexit discussion thread II

demfad · 11-09-2017 01:39PM

Corbyn just stated on BBC world at one that Labour now 'Open to' economic Union with EU.
Economic Union being permanent membership of the single market. He got there in the end.

ancapailldorcha · 11-09-2017 01:50PM

demfad wrote: »

Corbyn just stated on BBC world at one that Labour now 'Open to' economic Union with EU.
Economic Union being permanent membership of the single market. He got there in the end.

This is just baffling. That's an objectively inferior option to the situation that existed on the 22 June last year. It's EU membership without any say of influence at all.

Nody · 11-09-2017 02:04PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is just baffling. That's an objectively inferior option to the situation that existed on the 22 June last year. It's EU membership without any say of influence at all.

Well it sounds like a Norwegian deal in some form or other which I'd agree would be inferior compared to today's set up but it would most likely also be the quickest way back to full membership again. The problem is the whole Brexit campaign will keep ripping at it because they don't get to see the effect of it all.

solodeogloria · 11-09-2017 02:10PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is just baffling. That's an objectively inferior option to the situation that existed on the 22 June last year. It's EU membership without any say of influence at all.

Good afternoon!

This is why I've been saying that a "soft Brexit" is really no Brexit. It is an attempt to stay in by the backdoor.

No control of borders, no control of trade policy (if this includes staying in the customs union), no ultimate control over legislation. Continued contributions into the EU's coffers.

I'm not entirely opposed to using the term "vassal state" to describe this structure. There's no point in leaving the EU if it means adopting this model. It definitely isn't what the British public voted for.

Labour seem to change their colours depending on where the wind goes. It is why they don't have any credibility on this issue. Telling the public in the election that they were leaving the customs union and single market and then saying we'll stay in the next breath. No cries of u-turn king yet though.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

demfad · 11-09-2017 02:41PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

This is why I've been saying that a "soft Brexit" is really no Brexit. It is an attempt to stay in by the backdoor.

No control of borders, no control of trade policy (if this includes staying in the customs union), no ultimate control over legislation. Continued contributions into the EU's coffers.

I'm not entirely opposed to using the term "vassal state" to describe this structure. There's no point in leaving the EU if it means adopting this model. It definitely isn't what the British public voted for.

Labour seem to change their colours depending on where the wind goes. It is why they don't have any credibility on this issue. Telling the public in the election that they were leaving the customs union and single market and then saying we'll stay in the next breath. No cries of u-turn king yet though.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The British public seem to disagree with you:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/17/majority-of-brexiters-would-swap-free-movement-for-eu-market-access?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

The majority of Brexit supporters would be happy to swap European free movement for single market access, according to two studies which suggest ways for Britain to pull back from the brink in the upcoming negotiations.

Can you provide any substantiation for your assertion that YOU KNOW what the British people voted for and that it was for a Brexit outside of the Customs Union and Single Market?

demfad · 11-09-2017 02:45PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is just baffling. That's an objectively inferior option to the situation that existed on the 22 June last year. It's EU membership without any say of influence at all.

Yes. But it is objectively far superior to the option of leaving the customs Union and single market which is where Labour have moved from and the Conservatives are.

Edit: Just to add that apart from saving the British economy (and potentially its society as it is now) membership of the SM and CU solves the Irish question.
No other credible solution has been aired after well over a year. This isn't Labour's fault.

The UK government should have considered Ireland when embarking on Brexit or (in theory) should have considered potential Brexit when embarking on the GFA.

steddyeddy · 11-09-2017 02:54PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is just baffling. That's an objectively inferior option to the situation that existed on the 22 June last year. It's EU membership without any say of influence at all.

Well post-Brexit every deal is going to be inferior to the one the UK had. Now damage limitation is the priority.

Zubeneschamali · 11-09-2017 03:13PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is just baffling. That's an objectively inferior option to the situation that existed on the 22 June last year. It's EU membership without any say of influence at all.

We all know the best option is to stay in the EU, the question is which Brexit option is least damaging.

The closer the chosen option is to staying in the EU, the less damaging it will be.

Enzokk · 11-09-2017 03:36PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We all know the best option is to stay in the EU, the question is which Brexit option is least damaging.

The closer the chosen option is to staying in the EU, the less damaging it will be.

And Labour has now positioned themselves as a different option to the Tories. They will still exit the EU but will not pull the trigger to the gun pointed at their heads, which the UK government seems intent on doing right now. They will try to get some of the moderate votes of people that will realise that going full nuclear Brexit is not a solution. Leaving every thing related to the EU, which seems to be the option that they are going for now, will not help anyone.

Yes they will lose some votes from Labour voters that want to get rid of the EU, then again they should gain votes from those that believe leaving the EU will cause untold damage as they see it. Risky, but you do not get anything by just saying no and not presenting an alternative to the status quo.

Water John · 11-09-2017 03:42PM

Certainly, there is now clear daylight between LB and Con. This makes Parliament very interesting.
Some Con MPs who see the disaster of Hard Brexit, will take some persuading to vote for the Govn't on this. Time to back up your beliefs.
So the present Parliament is interesting, without looking post next election.

No doubt many lobbying sectors, are getting their message through to politicians of how, disastrous Hard Brexit looks like.

Professor Moriarty · 11-09-2017 03:43PM

Nody wrote: »

Well it sounds like a Norwegian deal in some form or other which I'd agree would be inferior compared to today's set up but it would most likely also be the quickest way back to full membership again. The problem is the whole Brexit campaign will keep ripping at it because they don't get to see the effect of it all.

The EFTA (Norwegian) model would mean that Britain would have to accept all four freedoms - people, goods, services, capital - while fully implementing EU laws and regulations. However, Britain would have no influence or veto on these laws and regulations.

I think every single one of the EU 27 would be very happy to see Britain adopt the EFTA model.

demfad · 11-09-2017 04:00PM

Any "transition" deal will look exactly like the situation now. Any prospect for a bespoke "transition" deal is gone because not enough progress has been made to discuss trade and also because there is zero trust especially after the immigration paper leak.
Thus the "transition" deal is not really a transition deal because they have nothing to transition too. Most of this "transition 3 years" will be taken up in completing the divorce talks. The time the UK has to negotiate a deal and then get the necessary infrastructure, systems, regulatory bodies etc. in place after just isn't there.
Realistically some kind of EFTA arrangement is all that could feasably be managed in an orderly fashion in any available timeframe.

solodeogloria · 11-09-2017 07:19PM

Nody wrote: »

Well it sounds like a Norwegian deal in some form or other which I'd agree would be inferior compared to today's set up but it would most likely also be the quickest way back to full membership again. The problem is the whole Brexit campaign will keep ripping at it because they don't get to see the effect of it all.

Good evening!

Did you miss the memo? The UK voted to leave the European Union and most want to just get on with it.

In Parliament meanwhile it is looking like Jeremy Corbyn could have more rebels than Theresa May this evening. I hope the bill will helpfully dilute some of the Henry VIII powers but I'm fairly sure that it won't be voted against.

It isn't even just Labour Brexiteers like John Mann or Kate Hoey that will rebel. Even former Europe minister Caroline Flint will vote for the legislation. Brexit will be formally enshrined in law. Just when you thought Jeremy was an electable leader we see yet more discord in parliamentary Labour.

The game is up. People just want Brexit to be done and dusted. That includes a lot of remain voters. As the legislative agenda for Brexit makes its way through parliament it will make one thing clear. The UK is serious about leaving.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Billy86 · 11-09-2017 07:25PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes they will lose some votes from Labour voters that want to get rid of the EU, then again they should gain votes from those that believe leaving the EU will cause untold damage as they see it. Risky, but you do not get anything by just saying no and not presenting an alternative to the status quo.

That's actually largely how they got Brexit.

oppenheimer1 · 11-09-2017 08:35PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EFTA (Norwegian) model would mean that Britain would have to accept all four freedoms - people, goods, services, capital - while fully implementing EU laws and regulations. However, Britain would have no influence or veto on these laws and regulations.

I think every single one of the EU 27 would be very happy to see Britain adopt the EFTA model.

It is, quite frankly, exactly what the EU want. It would see the UK establishment utterly defeated taking not making laws while still leaving their markets open and keeping their contributions coming in.

Any other state contemplating leaving and seeing that as the outcome will not bother.

blanch152 · 11-09-2017 08:45PM

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

It is, quite frankly, exactly what the EU want. It would see the UK establishment utterly defeated taking not making laws while still leaving their markets open and keeping their contributions coming in.

Any other state contemplating leaving and seeing that as the outcome will not bother.

Agreed, that has been the EU gameplan from day 1.

The UK only have two options, accept that option and keep their people wealthy or choose a very hard Brexit and watch their economy plummet.

Nody · 11-09-2017 09:16PM

blanch152 wrote: »

The UK only have two options, accept that option and keep their people wealthy or choose a very hard Brexit and watch their economy plummet.

And if they go that route every single Bremoaner will be out crying in the newspapers about how it was a missed chance of a lifetime. Look this is harsh to say but UK needs the planned Brexit they want (i.e. crash out without a deal) a decade of realization before they are ready to rejoin again. That's the only way you'll get a new set of politicians who are actually living in the 21st century rather than in the dark ages (only look at the new Tory candidate leader's view on abortion due to rape for example). It will be a cleansing steel bath for the parties and yes it will be woe for the country but for their long term success and welfare they need politicians who stopped seeing the world through the rose tinted lenses of a UK empire era (and ensure more of that generation are dead and hence not pandered to by politicians). They will then be ready to rejoin EU and take a lead on reformation and modernizing UK's economy etc. It's harsh but this is a democracy; they need to implement the change and it's not happening today with the current parties and leadership teams.

Water John · 11-09-2017 09:20PM

First Bill votes tonight.

Nody · 11-09-2017 09:21PM

Water John wrote: »

First Bill votes tonight.

Only a miracle will stop it between Tories, DUP and at least 7 Liberals who've said to refuse the whip on the topic.

Capt'n Midnight · 11-09-2017 09:26PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EFTA (Norwegian) model would mean that Britain would have to accept all four freedoms - people, goods, services, capital - while fully implementing EU laws and regulations. However, Britain would have no influence or veto on these laws and regulations.

I think every single one of the EU 27 would be very happy to see Britain adopt the EFTA model.

Also the Norway pays the same per capita as the UK so no £350 million like wot it said on the side of the bus.

And the Norwegian model means no passporting for financial services.

But on the plus side the UK will control farming and fishing but it's a nett importer of food and will control fishing, but Grove has already said that other nations would be allowed fish.

Capt'n Midnight · 11-09-2017 09:46PM

Nody wrote: »

Only a miracle will stop it between Tories, DUP and at least 7 Liberals who've said to refuse the whip on the topic.

Cash for Ash hasn't gone away. Junior didn't mention a trip. The whole Metro campaign. And the DUP have more than a few skeletons in the cupboard.

One definition of an honest politician it that when they are bought they stay bought. Remember the Billion Pounds the DUP were promised ?
DUP-Tory £1bn deal 'needs Parliament's approval'

If there is a backbencher revolt the funds might not be approved.
And any Northern Ireland party can tell you exactly what a promise is worth.

View · 11-09-2017 10:04PM

It should be pointed out that the UK Labour Party is just as hostile to FoM as the Conservatives. As such the Norwegian style option (EFTA/EEA + Schengen) is not on the agenda as neither the EFTA countries nor the EU ones will consider such an option.

The other EEA governments have no incentive to aid the UK in discriminating against THEIR citizens while simultaneously giving the UK all the benefits of EEA membership.

View · 11-09-2017 10:22PM

Sand wrote: »

View wrote: »

No, they won't. The UK will just admit more non-EU immigrants instead. The average Brexiter just has a hang-up about EU immigrants, the much larger numbers of non-EU that arrive every year aren't an issue they get upset about at all.

They might. They might not. Brexit was a very definite rejection of mass immigration.

There is an old saying that actions speak louder than words. And the actions by the UK's Brexit government is to continue their policy of the mass-admission of non-EU immigrants to the UK just as did before the referendum for every year they have held governmental office.

And, no, all those pro-Brexit politicians, commentators and members of the public who were all so "deeply concerned" about immigration during the referendum couldn't care less about it now. It is only EU immigration they have a melt down over.

flutered · 11-09-2017 10:32PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Agreed, that has been the EU gameplan from day 1.

The UK only have two options, accept that option and keep their people wealthy or choose a very hard Brexit and watch their economy plummet.

speaking to an english guy today, he was full of telling me what the eu was making the irish do, all the rules and regulations, i asked which was best, regulations or a battered economy, i got no answer

flutered · 11-09-2017 10:45PM

joeysoap wrote: »

I understand UK nationals reasons for applying for Irish passports,

I don't understand our reason for issuing them.

If half the UK carry EU passports why would they bother wanting to remain?

they voted to remain, brexit may well split the family, as its probably one will have to move overseas, something no one has mentioned yet

Jim2007 · 11-09-2017 11:04PM

View wrote: »

The other EEA governments have no incentive to aid the UK in discriminating against THEIR citizens while simultaneously giving the UK all the benefits of EEA membership.

What the U.K. tend to forget is that it is not just about them.. If the EU give additional concessions to the U.K. then every other third country will expect the same concessions.

For instance the EU has a bilateral agreement with Switzerland where by they both agree that the priority for work permits is EU/EEA/CH and then all others. That treaty is then the basis for further agreements with other third countries such as the US, Canada etc on when their citizens can obtain permanent residence status in Switzerland and move throughout the block and so on... Granting the U.K. some kind of special status as a third country would kick off another set of issues...

Enzokk · 11-09-2017 11:13PM

Billy86 wrote: »

That's actually largely how they got Brexit.

Maybe, then again the reason we got the referendum is because the leader of the Tories didn't have the balls to stand up to the euroskeptic wing of his own party. If he had actually done what he thought was right there should have been no referendum. It seems most agree the sensible course of action is to stay as close to the EU as possible because it makes financial sense, the way the UK economy is set-up. Labour seems to be hedging their bets on the rational choice, not gamble what their own beliefs were.

Jim2007 · 11-09-2017 11:15PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think every single one of the EU 27 would be very happy to see Britain adopt the EFTA model.

Except the current EFTA membership may not agree! Admitting the U.K. would seriously upset the balance of power and if you were a member, would seriously want to deal with all the we're special we want an opt out etc...

breatheme · 12-09-2017 12:05AM

And then you could argue, "if you want this opt-out, you're out of the EFTA." Once that happens, back to the drawing board!

I really think they need a Brexit of the harder kind (not the hardest kind, mind you, I don't want to see Britain burn). And the EU needs one too, in a way.

breatheme · 12-09-2017 12:05AM

And then you could argue, "if you want this opt-out, you're out of the EFTA." Once that happens, back to the drawing board!

I really think they need a Brexit of the harder kind (not the hardest kind, mind you, I don't want to see Britain burn). And the EU needs one too, in a way.

Brexit discussion thread II

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