Brexit discussion thread II

Water John · 03-09-2017 02:03PM

Well the politicians abdicated their responsibility in the matter to the people by way of referendum, even though we all know it had to be a Westminister political decision. Well they can do that again. The shape of what faces the UK will be a lot different than what most people imagined the last time they voted.
It will be a savage, hard and bloody campaign. But only the weak would shy away from it.

solodeogloria · 03-09-2017 05:42PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

You want access to the single market without the regulations and you want to be totally out of the EU........

Sorry S. I tried but I don't believe you find that position credible unless you're parodying the Brexit negotiating team.

I'll just debate against Brexit in general as I don't think your posts make sense.

Good evening!

So what argument have you presented so far? I can't see anything.

I don't think it's massively fruitful to respond to one liners.

Jim2007 wrote: »

The problem is that they have no acceptable mechanism for changing their mind - the political parties own the decision and that makes it a big U turn issue! If I look at Ireland and Switzerland (the two I know), the people own the decision and it is not seen as a failing or victory for a political party. That makes it easier to renegotiate, to reconsider and vote again.

You mean when politicians sell the people short and say 'wrong answer'.

That isn't what I want for the UK as it isn't genuine democracy.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Water John · 03-09-2017 06:11PM

Solo, the All Ireland Hurling Final was on. We all have priorities in life.
But I do think Davis telling us the EU was frightened of Brexit, was a funny joke.

Nody · 03-09-2017 06:24PM

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

If the Sunday times is to be believed, they are reporting that May has secretly agreed to a €50bn exit fee.

This kind of kite flying is interesting had to be said.

The more I think of it the more I think this was a very much intentional leak from the government. The story will go like this; first of all fuel the rage about EU etc. to overshadow the lack of progress made but come October and the Conservative party convention the story line shared by David will look something like this:

"When we started negotiation they wanted us to pay over £80 billion"
*Crowd boos*
"I know, I know; we went through every line and pushed them back with our lawyers and got it down to £60 billion"
*Crowd boos*
"I know, I know; we then pointed out the value of trade with UK, their need for us and got it down to £50 billion"
*Crowd boos*
"I know, I know; but we'd not settle for that as the pluck British spirit continued we kept hammering them until we got it down to £35 billion with £20 only after 3 years on multiple conditions related to trade meaning if we don't get the trade we want they don't get paid!"
*Crowd cheers*

By leaking the £50 billion now any number below it will simply look better by comparison.

steddyeddy · 03-09-2017 06:26PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

So what argument have you presented so far? I can't see anything.

I don't think it's massively fruitful to respond to one liners.

You mean when politicians sell the people short and say 'wrong answer'.

That isn't what I want for the UK as it isn't genuine democracy.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

I've provided arguements against Brexit. Your position has changed several times. You (possibly without knowing it) described a hard Brexit, soft Brexit and full access to the single market without being in the single market.

My arguements against Brexit are economical. E.G Brexit hasn't happened yet but the implications have reduced the British economy to the worst performing economy in the world.

solodeogloria · 03-09-2017 06:42PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

I've provided arguements against Brexit. Your position has changed several times. You (possibly without knowing it) described a hard Brexit, soft Brexit and full access to the single market without being in the single market.

My arguements against Brexit are economical. E.G Brexit hasn't happened yet but the implications have reduced the British economy to the worst performing economy in the world.

Good evening!

Didn't you read what I said about the worst performing? It isn't the worst in the world. It is the worst within the G7. Naturally. It's because of temporary uncertainty.

This isn't an argument against Brexit. It is an argument against uncertainty which everyone remainer or Brexiteer alike wants to get sorted.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Sand · 03-09-2017 07:17PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Didn't you read what I said about the worst performing? It isn't the worst in the world. It is the worst within the G7. Naturally. It's because of temporary uncertainty.

This isn't an argument against Brexit. It is an argument against uncertainty which everyone remainer or Brexiteer alike wants to get sorted.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The longer the uncertainty goes on, and the greater the economic pressure that results, the greater the advantage to the EU in the negotiations. So its bemusing why the UK are so unprepared and so slow to address the phase 1 issues. It is in their interest to solve these issues quickly. But they seem too incompetent to do so, or too unwilling to recognise that Brexit means the UK will no longer be able to access the benefits of EU membership.

Capt'n Midnight · 03-09-2017 07:44PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Didn't you read what I said about the worst performing? It isn't the worst in the world. It is the worst within the G7. Naturally. It's because of temporary uncertainty.

This isn't an argument against Brexit. It is an argument against uncertainty which everyone remainer or Brexiteer alike wants to get sorted.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Worst in G7
Worst in EU 28 too.

And 2nd worst in the G20 only ahead of South Africa where trade, catering and accommodation industry are down because of political instability.

G20-500-0617.fw.png

Russia was 0.5%

The uncertainty is that the UK could still remain and so the full effects of exiting the EU have not been felt yet.

Capt'n Midnight · 03-09-2017 07:47PM

Remember too the UK economy is under performing despite the competitive advantage of the fall in Sterling and it's real impact on labour costs and the continued benefits of EU trade deals with most of the planet.

murphaph · 03-09-2017 08:22PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Didn't you read what I said about the worst performing? It isn't the worst in the world. It is the worst within the G7. Naturally. It's because of temporary uncertainty.

This isn't an argument against Brexit. It is an argument against uncertainty which everyone remainer or Brexiteer alike wants to get sorted.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Sorry that's rubbish. If the outcome of Brexit was likely to be positive then uncertainty surrounding the status quo or a positive change would not cause the UK economy to slow. It's slowing because that is not the choice. The choice is between staying in and leaving SM and CU. Leaving will deal a killer blow to the economy.

The analogy is the seriously ill person. There is uncertainty as to whether they will die or recover. The uncertainty is unpleasant but only because one of the outcomes is really unpleasant and one hopes for the other one.

Think about it for a moment. The UK economy was powering ahead until recently. Now it's the worst performing in the G7. It's because business and investors fear leaving the single market and customs union. No other reason. Investment decisions are on hold. They aren't waiting to hear that it's hard Brexit before resuming their investments!

ancapailldorcha · 03-09-2017 08:33PM

The thing to bear in mind when people talk about a weak pound boosting exports is that that same weak pound must be used to purchase components where they are not readily available domestically. Car components are moved across the EU quite regularly so Nissan in Sunderland will find various things getting more expensive the long this goes on. These costs will inevitably be borne by the consumer who may opt for cheaper cars assembled on the continent. Sure, cheaper financial services might boost the economy but that's going to be very little use to anyone who works in what remains of the UK's manufacturing sector.

solodeogloria · 03-09-2017 09:23PM

Good evening!

Last post for today.

murphaph wrote: »

Sorry that's rubbish. If the outcome of Brexit was likely to be positive then uncertainty surrounding the status quo or a positive change would not cause the UK economy to slow. It's slowing because that is not the choice. The choice is between staying in and leaving SM and CU. Leaving will deal a killer blow to the economy.

The analogy is the seriously ill person. There is uncertainty as to whether they will die or recover. The uncertainty is unpleasant but only because one of the outcomes is really unpleasant and one hopes for the other one.

Think about it for a moment. The UK economy was powering ahead until recently. Now it's the worst performing in the G7. It's because business and investors fear leaving the single market and customs union. No other reason. Investment decisions are on hold. They aren't waiting to hear that it's hard Brexit before resuming their investments!

I still hold that it is only the slowest in the G7 due to the uncertainty that Brexit has brought. When terms are established and clear this uncertainty will dissipate.

You've presented another false dichotomy. Again, there is no reason why a third country trade deal can't be struck. There is precedent for it within the European Union. We knew the negotiations would be difficult, but with the right transition, and with the right end goal I am sure that the British economy will do well.

There is no point saying a free trade arrangement isn't an option when it has clear precedent.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Capt'n Midnight · 03-09-2017 09:54PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I still hold that it is only the slowest in the G7 due to the uncertainty that Brexit has brought. When terms are established and clear this uncertainty will dissipate.

Slowest in EU28
Slowest in G20 except for South Africa which has unrest.

Uncertainty won't be the only thing dissipating.

Like I posted before there is no certainty the UK could get a CETA deal as they don't export as may raw materials or petroleum products or other stuff the EU needs. Even if they did it won't apply to everything and can take up to 8 YEARS for full reduction of tariffs.

For high tech companies 8 years is a long time, many would refurbish their plant on those timescales so there is very little point in toughing it out in the UK. It could be cheaper to build a new plant in the EU and then the following one back in the UK if Brexit works out.

steddyeddy · 03-09-2017 09:57PM

The Brexit negotiating team seems to be sick of the uneducated assumptions coming from Brexiters. Barnier says that the UK "needs to be educated about the consequences of leaving the EU". I hope he does because UK politicians have done little to educate the public.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-41140564

Lemming · 03-09-2017 10:20PM

They'll all be educated soon enough one way or another.

Water John · 03-09-2017 10:34PM

I'm fine with LB having an evolving strategy. It's the unbending branch, (Tories) that snaps in the wind.

oppenheimer1 · 04-09-2017 12:19AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The thing to bear in mind when people talk about a weak pound boosting exports is that that same weak pound must be used to purchase components where they are not readily available domestically. Car components are moved across the EU quite regularly so Nissan in Sunderland will find various things getting more expensive the long this goes on. These costs will inevitably be borne by the consumer who may opt for cheaper cars assembled on the continent. Sure, cheaper financial services might boost the economy but that's going to be very little use to anyone who works in what remains of the UK's manufacturing sector.

Which leads us to an interesting observation. The UK has seen a sharp depreciation in the value of the pound but only a very modest increase in exports and only a very small change in the current account deficit. The muted response to the fall in Sterling goes against the classic expectation but can be understood in the context of modern supply chains.

RDM_83 again · 04-09-2017 02:55AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Worst in G7
Worst in EU 28 too.

And 2nd worst in the G20 only ahead of South Africa where trade, catering and accommodation industry are down because of political instability.

Russia was 0.5%

The uncertainty is that the UK could still remain and so the full effects of exiting the EU have not been felt yet.

I am fairly certain this has been pointed out on this thread already but using Q1 for the UK (and also USA) will show deceptively worse performance than other countries as they tend to have a slow Q1, particularly if your comparing it against Q4 which normally shows high activity.

Peregrinus · 04-09-2017 03:01AM

RDM_83 again wrote: »

I am fairly certain this has been pointed out on this thread already but using Q1 for the UK (and also USA) will show deceptively worse performance than other countries as they tend to have a slow Q1, particularly if your comparing it against Q4 which normally shows high activity.

Is this more true for the UK than for other economies?

04-09-2017 03:04AM

I can only hope that the European side realised early on how ridiculous this was going to get and they prepared for it and will mitigate the impact on Ireland. Because the UK are really, really terrible at this.

RDM_83 again · 04-09-2017 03:53AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Is this more true for the UK than for other economies?

I can't find a source for this at the minute but AFAIK its to do with Christmas in UK and USA which results in good Q4's and bad Q1's where as other countries are a bit less commercial about Xmass.
Take a look at the Quarterly performance last year for the UK and you will see a similar pattern.
I do think the UK is going to be hit quite hard economically by Brexit but the idea that seems popular on this thread that its an economic basket doesn't appear to be true (last page you have people thanking a post that says its the worst performer in the world :rolleyes: ).

Incidentally the idea that the UK last year performing much better than post Brexit predictions isn't a refutation of these experts as the measures to prevent those results occuring has some merit.
However and this is the important thing, this also applies to the Eurozone countries as well the ECB has been extending Quantative Easing till 2019 AFAIK.
Yes mainland Europe is showing growth but the southern countries aren't exactly economically healthy, people aren't talking about the Italian banks much these days but that huge problem hasn't gone away and in my opinion the silence on it is a deliberate policy.

listermint · 04-09-2017 05:03AM

RDM_83 again wrote: »

I can't find a source for this at the minute but AFAIK its to do with Christmas in UK and USA which results in good Q4's and bad Q1's where as other countries are a bit less commercial about Xmass.
Take a look at the Quarterly performance last year for the UK and you will see a similar pattern.
I do think the UK is going to be hit quite hard economically by Brexit but the idea that seems popular on this thread that its an economic basket doesn't appear to be true (last page you have people thanking a post that says its the worst performer in the world :rolleyes: ).

Incidentally the idea that the UK last year performing much better than post Brexit predictions isn't a refutation of these experts as the measures to prevent those results occuring has some merit.
However and this is the important thing, this also applies to the Eurozone countries as well the ECB has been extending Quantative Easing till 2019 AFAIK.
Yes mainland Europe is showing growth but the southern countries aren't exactly economically healthy, people aren't talking about the Italian banks much these days but that huge problem hasn't gone away and in my opinion the silence on it is a deliberate policy.

This is counter to what the IMF have said though.

Explain

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/23/imf-the-rest-of-the-world-is-picking-up-the-economic-slack-as-us-looks-weaker.html

A weaker-than-expected first quarter also spurred the IMF to cut its forecast for U.K. growth for this year to 1.7 percent from 2.0 percent, while leaving its 2018 forecast at 1.5 percent.
But slowdowns in the U.S. and U.K. were expected to be offset by increased forecasts for many euro area countries, including Germany, France, Italy and Spain, where first quarter growth largely beat expectations, the IMF said.

Peregrinus · 04-09-2017 05:43AM

RDM_83 again wrote: »

I do think the UK is going to be hit quite hard economically by Brexit but the idea that seems popular on this thread that its an economic basket doesn't appear to be true (last page you have people thanking a post that says its the worst performer in the world :rolleyes: ).

I agree. The notion that Brexit will reduce the UK to a primitive community of hunter-gatherers is not really correct.

But I do think that, in any given set of global economic circumstances, the UK would probably be better off remaining with the Union that it would having left it.

We'll never actually know this for sure, since regardless of whether Brexit proceeds or not all we will ever be able to do is compare what actually unfolds with a speculative might-have-been if history had unfolded the other way. And we tend to construct our might-have-beens in a way that comfort us and validate our beliefs. It's all just handwaving about the UK being "nimble" it its negotiation of trade deals.

Still, most of the economic arguments for Brexit that I have seen seem to me either extremely vague and to rely on a fair degree of wishful thinking, or when laid out in detail simply don't stack up.

For example, the UK currently enjoys a high degree of trade freedom through its participation in the single market and in the Union's network of trade deals with third countries. Between them, this covers about 60% of the UK's international trade; the remaining 40% is conducted on WTO terms. They lose all this through Brexit and have to rebuild their own network of free trade agreements starting from scratch, but the degree of freedom they can achieve is limited by their own red lines - no single market, no customs union, no supranational courts with jurisdiction in the UK. It seems impossible, starting from this point and subjecting themselves to these constraints, that they can ever get back to the high-water-mark of trade freedom that they currently have. But I haven't seen a serious discussion from the Brexit side that joins these dots, and confronts the issue that they raise.

Thomas__ · 04-09-2017 07:21AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

ambro25 wrote: »

The EU has done the classic schoolboy error of giving some pocket money here and some marbles there by way of ransom for too long: the EU EEC should have put the brakes on the UK's exceptionalism from day one, steadfastly so, rather than give the UK a rebate here, an opt-out there, and exceptions everywhere, time and again every time the UK asked.

Unsurprisingly, the UK has grown a "political philosophy" of entitlement after a while. After the UK asked for one exception too far with Brexit (particularly, all that the UK "wants" on the back thereof), these negotiations are its long-overdue "political philosophy" re-adjustment: the bullied is the bigger kid by far, and not afraid to land a punch or ten anymore.

Long may it continue.

Excellent post. However, the above is ultimately the issue in a nutshell. The EU tried to appease the UK with a rebate and other concessions. David Cameron tried to appease Tory paleosceptics with a referendum to prevent them from defecting to UKIP. Both appeasement policies failed because trying to appease fanatics by granting them concessions only serves to embolden them.

The risk of the EU playing hardball with the UK was the perceived loss of Sovereignty. With Brexit and the failure of the far right to dismantle the EU (ultimately what this was all about) means that the EU now has free reign to act in the interests of 27 with the kid gloves well and truly off. I hope it does so because the border issue in Ireland is of paramount importance and entirely of the British public's making.

demfad wrote: »

I don't think you understand how it works.

With respect, this is more reflective of yourself. If the populace wants to swallow a pile of easy answers offered by fanatics, idiots and lunatics and votes in that manner then it only has itself to blame.

That´s fair enough. Still, there´s more to it than just the points raised in your post. I also take into account the failures of the establishment and sometimes real arrogance combined with a sense of refusal to listen to the public and their concerns. By arrogance I mean the attitude of the establishment to consider the wide populace as being "too stupid" to understand the complexities which goes hand in hand with the fact that the world has become more complicated indeed and the elits are either too lazy or incapable of explaining it to the people and making suggestions about how to solve problems in a way that is straight to the point and which is understandable for everybody. The others are keen and cunny enough to exploit that for their own political purposes and Brexit is just one example for various issues.

Just to point this out but I agree with you anyway.

Samaris · 04-09-2017 08:36AM

RDM_83 again wrote: »

Yes mainland Europe is showing growth but the southern countries aren't exactly economically healthy, people aren't talking about the Italian banks much these days but that huge problem hasn't gone away and in my opinion the silence on it is a deliberate policy.

To be honest though, Italian people are probably talking about. Likely the Greeks and citizens of another couple of countries. We're mostly talking about what's going on in the Anglophone world, unless something really crazy and noticeable happens.

We've generally got all on with the news from Britain, America and Ireland, bits of political news from Germany and France and the odd rumblings from the rest of the world (or as the Express which is really having fun with this headline would put it WORLD WAR III!!)

It's not necessarily deliberate, more likely that people are just paying more attention to things that aren't foreign banking systems.

Capt'n Midnight · 04-09-2017 09:26AM

RDM_83 again wrote: »

I am fairly certain this has been pointed out on this thread already but using Q1 for the UK (and also USA) will show deceptively worse performance than other countries as they tend to have a slow Q1, particularly if your comparing it against Q4 which normally shows high activity.

The diamond on the graph shows last year.

So while the US is similar to this time last year the UK has dropped.

Zubeneschamali · 04-09-2017 09:55AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

We'll never actually know this for sure, since regardless of whether Brexit proceeds or not all we will ever be able to do is compare what actually unfolds with a speculative might-have-been if history had unfolded the other way.

We have 44 years of UK vs. EU average growth and vs. specific countries like Germany growth.

In 20 years, we will be able to point at the inflection in Britain's growth graph where it drops away from EU growth, and measure how far behind it is.

But it will be far too late to ever make up the lost years, even by rejoining the EU.

Peregrinus · 04-09-2017 10:03AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We have 44 years of UK vs. EU average growth and vs. specific countries like Germany growth.

In 20 years, we will be able to point at the inflection in Britain's growth graph where it drops away from EU growth, and measure how far behind it is.

Yes, perhaps. But, even if so, we won't be able to say that it dropped away and fell behind because of Brexit, or that it wouldn't have dropped behind but for Brexit. Other factors will also be at work in the intervening 20 years.

Zubeneschamali · 04-09-2017 10:19AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yes, perhaps. But, even if so, we won't be able to say that it dropped away and fell behind because of Brexit, or that it wouldn't have dropped behind but for Brexit.

Economics is not an exact science in many areas, but trade, tariffs, non-tariff barriers to trade are very well studied and understood. That's why there is a global push to deals like NAFTA, TTIP, TTP - we know that freer trade enables growth (overall - where the growth happens and in what sector is what drives the long negotiations).

So we know in advance that if Brexit leads to tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade for the UK, it will slow growth.

So when growth slows when tariffs and other barriers appear, it will be a very difficult position to defend to say this is a coincidence.

Peregrinus · 04-09-2017 10:32AM

Oh, sure. It won't be a coincidence. Brexit will be damaging to the UK economically. There's no question in my mind about that.

My point is that we won't be able to prove that the damage is attributable to Brexit. Those who have a psychological commitment to Brexit, who want to believe that it has been good for Britain, will be able to tell themselves that Britain's underperformance is not attributable to Brexit, but to other factors (first among them being the malice of Eurocrats who have "punished" the UK by denying it this, that or the other). And while we may be satisfied that they are wrong, it won't be possible to demonstrate that they are wrong.

Brexit discussion thread II

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