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Brexit discussion thread II

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,227 ✭✭✭flatty


    ambro25 wrote: »
    listermint wrote: »
    <...> I have actually friends returning to Ireland because the funding is not being renewed next year because it's European funding they cannot get from the UK government they've tried.

    These are real people and real scenarios occurring right now.

    Not some random scenario that is being dreamt up.

    Project reality in full effect despite your usherings to the Contrary.
    <...>
    We had at least one UK tech start-up as a client, which is now in admin (effectively, folded) because the EIF culled its funding to their (middleman) UK investor and so they're not getting their next, life-giving investment round. That's about 3 months after this article.

    I spoke with the CEO only last week, about ways and means to keep servicing levels and their IP portfolio alive, whilst they scramble for alt funding and phoenixing. He said the UK investor (Newcastle based) had confirmed that the EIF had pulled the funding on the back of the June 2017 GE result.

    They're not alone, I'm afraid (other UK start-ups depending on that particular UK investor are not getting their slice of EIF funding either).

    That's about £20k's worth of business per annum to us, to say nothing of the start-up's employees, and other suppliers, etc. That's on top of the EU work we're beginning to lose (and may eventually lose completely come 2019...and that is 'comfortable' 6 figures' worth) per my earlier post above.

    Put it that way: so far as I'm concerned, from my caseload and figures over the past 12 months, it's like 2008 all over again, more or less. Fewer clients hitting the buffers than then, sure...but most of them sitting on their waiting-and-seeing thumbs, and not spending a dime on IP. You'd tell me the UK went from G7 powerhouse to G7 red lantern inside one year, I'd easily believe you. Because that's exactly what the coalface is showing me.
    It's only going to get worse. Quite a lot worse. It may be that it is merely hastening a reckoning that was overdue, as it may well mean that the UK can no longer borrow money cheaply, and has to begin to cut its cloth, but it is going to be really quite nasty.
    Teresa et al will, as we all know, blame the EU.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Andre Geim, Nobel prize winning discoverer of graphene is considering leaving the UK with his research. Graphene is one atom thick and 200 times stronger than steel. He says the level of international applications have dropped post Brexit. A survey by the publication Nature revealed that 83% of researchers would vote to remain. Geim commented “I went to bed acknowledging the human species were not very smart animals.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/brexit-latest-scientist-andre-geim-graphene-discovery-university-manchester-eu-exit-withdrawal-a7886416.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,267 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    To be fair

    considering leaving both Britain and the EU


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,524 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Enjoy a laugh; here's the UK position paper on trade. It includes the following:
    Principles for an agreement on goods
    15.
    To achieve these objectives, the UK proposes the following four principles.
    a.
    First, to ensure the continued availability of products on EU and UK markets at the date of withdrawal, goods placed on the Single Market before exit should continue to circulate freely in the UK and the EU, without additional requirements or restrictions.
    b.
    Second, to avoid unnecessary duplication of activities and provide legal certainty, where businesses have undertaken compliance activities prior to exit, they should not be required to duplicate these activities in order to place goods on the UK and the EU market after exit. This includes recognising the validity of type approvals, certificates and registrations issued prior to exit.
    c.
    Third, to ensure that goods in circulation continue to comply with product legislation, and market surveillance authorities can ensure the necessary action is taken with respect to non-compliant products, the agreement should facilitate the continued oversight of goods.
    d.
    Fourth, where goods are supplied with services, there should be no restriction to the provision of these services that could undermine the agreement on goods
    Now A makes sense; if goods were legal under EU law when produced they should still be legal after Brexit. B is a stretch since there is now no oversight to confirm they are still complying or checking if the product has changed and C is a pipe dream which would require EU to break their own laws to make it happen (among other 6 month time period to review quality of controls) AND would require UK to have set up ALL duplication standards AND be complaint with all EU laws inc. ECJ decisions. How does this square with May's "Brexit is Brexit" again? And of course they expect EU to accept that UK "we want our own legislation" will somehow not only comply but that UK companies will be allowed to use UK certifications as valid after Brexit... Eat cake and have it much lately?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    joeysoap wrote: »
    To be fair

    considering leaving both Britain and the EU

    He also said:

    “We cannot even expect a neutral outcome anymore,” he says. “The question now is simply: to what extent is this going to be a disaster for science in the U.K.” Geim suspects the U.K. will be summarily “kicked out of crucial scientific collaborations” such as the European Innovation Council and Horizon 2020, an enterprise touted as “the biggest EU Research and Innovation program ever” which provides almost €80 billion ($94 billion) to researchers seeking to take their ideas “from the lab to the market.”


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Nody wrote: »
    Enjoy a laugh; here's the UK position paper on trade. It includes the following:
    Now A makes sense; if goods were legal under EU law when produced they should be still legal after Brexit. B is a stretch since there is now no oversight to confirm they are still complying or checking if the product has changed and C is a pipe dream which would require EU to break their own laws to make it happen (among other 6 month time period to review quality of controls) AND would require UK to have set up ALL duplication standards AND be complaint with all EU laws inc. ECJ decisions. How does this square with May's "Brexit is Brexit" again? And of course they expect EU to accept that UK "we want our own legislation" will somehow not only comply but that UK companies will be allowed to use UK certifications as valid after Brexit... Eat cake and have it much lately?

    Exactly a have cake and eat it scenario. It would be crazy to accept this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,634 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    joeysoap wrote: »
    To be fair

    considering leaving both Britain and the EU
    As far as I can see from the article, he's considering leaving the EU only in the sense that, if he is to move out of the UK, he is not committed to moving to somewhere in the EU; he'll look at all options, whether within or without the EU. He doesn't express any dissatisfaction with the funding or environment for scientific research within the EU.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,524 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Apparently, about 20% of Leave Voters are still expecting the NHS to be funded with the money that is currently spent on EU membership:
    And more telling from another poll:
    According to a survey by Opinium, 26 per cent of all Brexit voters said they were misled by promises made during the campaign.

    When respondents were asked whether they believed the £350m pledge, a quarter of all voters said they did: 35 per cent of Leave voters and 16 per cent of voters who voted to Remain.

    The poll found that more than a year after the vote, half of all respondents found the Leave campaign mostly or completely misleading with only 19 per cent describing it as truthful.
    Not in the article but the poll data the figure for the remain campaign lying is 37% as a reference. But according to solodeogloria and I quote:
    The gullible, feeble minded people argument doesn't wash with me and it never will. It's full of condescending attitudes to what was the biggest vote on a matter in British history in terms of turnout.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,338 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    Nody wrote: »
    And yet with this "sacrifice" under EU the export of fish has grown as part of total export from 0.7% (before joining) to 2.9% (after joining) on top of modernizing the fleets, providing actual ships to protect the fishing grounds etc. The simple fact is Ireland had not, would not and has never had a better fishing fleet then what it got under EU inc. possibility to protect it's waters. However the story how countless hundreds of billions were either given away or stolen by EU keeps popping up as regularly as the gazillions of gas/oil that the state is "giving away" through licenses and regulation (fanned by a handful of small exploration companies who've failed to find these wast natural resources for decades somehow).

    At one stage one fishing boat was responsible for 1/3 of the Irish catch (Atlantic Mist out of Killybegs). It was banned from fishing in European waters and ended up fishing off the coast of Africa where it was also banned from fishing. Its now in Dutch ownership (called the Annelies Ilena) and can be seen regularly fishing off the coast of Ireland.

    The Irish navy are looking out for EU interests which includes making sure Irish fishermen are keeping to the rules.

    This is an interesting read on the saga of Atlantic Mist and its then owner, Kevin McHugh.

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/controversial-millionaire-trawler-owner-dies-of-cjd-26353310.html


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,334 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Nody wrote: »
    Enjoy a laugh; here's the UK position paper on trade. It includes the following:
    Principles for an agreement on goods
    15.
    To achieve these objectives, the UK proposes the following four principles.
    a.
    First, to ensure the continued availability of products on EU and UK markets at the date of withdrawal, goods placed on the Single Market before exit should continue to circulate freely in the UK and the EU, without additional requirements or restrictions.
    Weasel words there , "placed on the Single Market"

    Ships take years to build. Rolls Royce sell jet engines years and years ahead with very long service contracts.
    https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press-releases/yr-2017/16-03-2017-rr-wins-long-term-service-contract-for-mtu-engines.aspx

    The EU is talking about goods actually in transit at the time of Brexit.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,861 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Many sectors now getting jittery, esp aviation.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,975 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    bill66 wrote: »
    Wow, what an amazing comment, I am surprised you have time to post here, what with counting your money from your 100% success in economic forecasting.

    I would suggest that no one knows what the impact of Brexit will be, good, bad or indifferent or which parts of the EU or Britain will be affected in which way. There is simply not enough evidence to make a reasoned and accurate prediction. Anyone who offers any such a prediction on either side of the debate is merely pissing in the wind.

    In fairness, there is a truth in what you are saying but I think also a misapplication of the effect of 'risk'. Ultimately, risk in the business sense is simply the uncertainty of outcome -- and the greater the uncertainty, the greater the risk. Over the past year or so, directors and senior management in Boardrooms were adopting a 'wait and see' approach on how the shock of the Brexit referendum result would ultimately pan out. But 'wait and see' is not a long-term stance which sits very well with anyone involved in navigating the choppy and risky seas of the financial markets. Companies have 'waited and seen' and what they have seen is nothing but an ongoing fumbling around as to what Brexit actually entails, never mind the means by which it will be executed or the timeframe for that execution.

    Maybe nothing will really come of Brexit, maybe it wouldn't be all that bad of a thing when it is given the chance to fully embed. But Mr CEO and his colleagues simply cannot afford to sit around waiting for nothing to happen -- they cannot justify to their shareholders a stance of "Oh we can't really say with any certainty right now how Brexit is going to pan out because nobody has a clue so we're just going to keep rolling with the same business model and hope it all works out". No, they have to take action to mitigate the risk of Brexit uncertainty, and the best way to do that is to start assessing what parts of the business can be shifted to remain within the 'safety' of the economic superpower of the EU. We are seeing the beginnings of that leakage now, but also still a little bit of 'wait and see'. Bit by bit, patience wears out and a decision is made to mitigate.

    So, going back to the truth of your post -- yes, we cannot predict how Brexit will pan out. But it is the very existence of that doubt which is already causing damage -- and will continue to do so.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,263 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Irish Times tomorrow saying the government has rejected British proposals for an "invisible" border.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    Irish Times tomorrow saying the government has rejected British proposals for an "invisible" border.

    Good morning!

    I just read the article. It's got lots of Leo Varadkar saying that the British should stay in the single market and the customs union and the claim that the British proposals are insufficient without a single reason why they would be.

    Following this you have James Brokenshire giving very clearly the reason why Britain cannot stay in the single market and customs union and explaining how their proposals can work in practice.

    I think people need to realise that the UK won't be moved on this including the Taoiseach. What's needed is constructive engagement within the red lines.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,634 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I can't read the article because it's paywalled.

    I think it's probably true that the UK won't move on this - unless there's a change of government, which right now doesn't seem imminent.

    I don't think anybody expects the UK to change their minds and embrace the EEA and the customs union. What they do expect, or at least hope, is that the UK will come to understand that its fixed determination to leave the customs union and the single market does mean that its border proposals are unrealistic. At some point the British will have to accept that if they want an open border, as they claim, they must compromise to some extent on customs/market autonomy. The present "we can have it all!" stance is simply not credible.

    They need to make choices here, and they need to accept responsibility for the consequences of the choices they make. Until they get to that stage of realism attempts to negotiate with them will be frustrating and largely fruitless. All the while time is running out. Britain will suffer for its persistent wishful thinking, but Ireland - north and south - will suffer more. Is it any wonder if Varadkar sounds a bit cranky?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Good morning!

    I just read the article. It's got lots of Leo Varadkar saying that the British should stay in the single market and the customs union and the claim that the British proposals are insufficient without a single reason why they would be.

    Following this you have James Brokenshire giving very clearly the reason why Britain cannot stay in the single market and customs union and explaining how their proposals can work in practice.

    I think people need to realise that the UK won't be moved on this including the Taoiseach. What's needed is constructive engagement within the red lines.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria

    Leo said that the British were trying to remain a part of the customs union by proxy which does appear to be what the British are doing by attempting to remove tariffs for a large percentage of northern Irish businesses when the bring goods into the EU.

    The UK know what the line is on the customs union. Trying to sneak in through the back door is pathetic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    I can't read the article because it's paywalled.

    Article not behind a paywall for me.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    I can't read the article because it's paywalled.

    I think it's probably true that the UK won't move on this - unless there's a change of government, which right now doesn't seem imminent.

    I don't think anybody expects the UK to change their minds and embrace the EEA and the customs union. What they do expect, or at least hope, is that the UK will come to understand that its fixed determination to leave the customs union and the single market does mean that its border proposals are unrealistic. At some point the British will have to accept that if they want an open border, as they claim, they must compromise to some extent on customs/market autonomy. The present "we can have it all!" stance is simply not credible.

    They need to make choices here, and they need to accept responsibility for the consequences of the choices they make. Until they get to that stage of realism attempts to negotiate with them will be frustrating and largely fruitless. All the while time is running out. Britain will suffer for its persistent wishful thinking, but Ireland - north and south - will suffer more. Is it any wonder if Varadkar sounds a bit cranky?

    Good morning!

    It depends on what your definition of "realistic" is. Given the assumption that the European Union can't and won't be flexible then of course it isn't realistic. At this point we're not certain if this being true.

    As for criticism of the UK being aspirational and trying to get the best deal possible - the only response is obviously that it is. The whole point of putting an opening gambit on the table is that progress can be made to a final conclusion. That's how negotiating works.

    It isn't Britain's role to decide what the European Union will or won't accept. It is for the European Union to decide what it will and won't accept and moreover the responsibility for what the European Union will or won't accept rests with it alone. As for our Taoiseach, he could begin to discuss the British proposals with James Brokenshire and see how these could work instead of being shrill about them.

    Of course there will be push back back and forwards but that's what negotiations are for. You don't concede everything at the start. It seems like you think Britain should just roll over in the discussion. Obviously that isn't their stance.

    There are still 3 months of discussion before the European Council summit in October. We've got one next week on August 28th, September 18th and October 9th before the summit. Given the direction of travel so far I think there's every chance that good progress can be made.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,439 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Good morning!

    It depends on what your definition of "realistic" is. Given the assumption that the European Union can't and won't be flexible then of course it isn't realistic. At this point we're not certain if this being true.

    As for criticism of the UK being aspirational and trying to get the best deal possible - the only response is obviously that it is. The whole point of putting an opening gambit on the table is that progress can be made to a final conclusion. That's how negotiating works.

    It isn't Britain's role to decide what the European Union will or won't accept. It is for the European Union to decide what it will and won't accept and moreover the responsibility for what the European Union will or won't accept rests with it alone. As for our Taoiseach, he could begin to discuss the British proposals with James Brokenshire and see how these could work instead of being shrill about them.

    Of course there will be push back back and forwards but that's what negotiations are for. You don't concede everything at the start. It seems like you think Britain should just roll over in the discussion. Obviously that isn't their stance.

    There are still 3 months of discussion before the European Council summit in October. We've got one next week on August 28th, September 18th and October 9th before the summit. Given the direction of travel so far I think there's every chance that good progress can be made.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria

    I'm assuming you think that their proposal is realistic?

    Because that's a direct question I'm asking forget the negotiation flight of fancy in the text above. Do you think the proposal is realistic.

    Specifically the open border.


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,276 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    I think the message intended for Brokenshire to take back to London is that the ball is in the UK government's court now. What they're proposing is "insufficient" for Ireland to vote for advancing negotiations to the second phase in October.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,338 ✭✭✭✭jm08




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,000 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    URL=https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-rejects-british-proposals-on-invisible-border-1.3195104]I just read the article[/URL]. It's got lots of Leo Varadkar saying that the British should stay in the single market and the customs union and the claim that the British proposals are insufficient without a single reason why they would be.

    Following this you have James Brokenshire giving very clearly the reason why Britain cannot stay in the single market and customs union and explaining how their proposals can work in practice.

    I think people need to realise that the UK won't be moved on this including the Taoiseach. What's needed is constructive engagement within the red lines.


    Am I missing something here or does the UK want the be separate of the customs union but not have customs checks? That seems to be what they are proposing with the border, to have a border where there are no customs checks but not to be party to the customs union and negotiate their own trade deals.

    Do you think that is a working solution? Why would the EU continue if this is possible for any other countries?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,263 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I think the message intended for Brokenshire to take back to London is that the ball is in the UK government's court now. What they're proposing is "insufficient" for Ireland to vote for advancing negotiations to the second phase in October.

    They are staring down the barrel of a veto on to the next stage.

    In fact the mood music in the EU suggest this could be unanimous.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,966 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Good morning!

    It depends on what your definition of "realistic" is. Given the assumption that the European Union can't and won't be flexible then of course it isn't realistic. At this point we're not certain if this being true.

    As for criticism of the UK being aspirational and trying to get the best deal possible - the only response is obviously that it is. The whole point of putting an opening gambit on the table is that progress can be made to a final conclusion. That's how negotiating works.

    It isn't Britain's role to decide what the European Union will or won't accept. It is for the European Union to decide what it will and won't accept and moreover the responsibility for what the European Union will or won't accept rests with it alone. As for our Taoiseach, he could begin to discuss the British proposals with James Brokenshire and see how these could work instead of being shrill about them.

    Of course there will be push back back and forwards but that's what negotiations are for. You don't concede everything at the start. It seems like you think Britain should just roll over in the discussion. Obviously that isn't their stance.

    There are still 3 months of discussion before the European Council summit in October. We've got one next week on August 28th, September 18th and October 9th before the summit. Given the direction of travel so far I think there's every chance that good progress can be made.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria



    When you consider that nowhere in the world is there an open border between two large economies without a customs union, then you realise that the UK's proposals are unrealistic.

    The UK position remains that they want to leave the EU, stop paying the money, get out from under the ECJ, control immigration, but still want all the benefits of free trade, being able to retire to the sun etc. Until the UK realises that there are downsides to leaving the EU, there won't be any progress.

    I think what's beginning to happen in UK government circles is that the realisation is slowly dawning that the upside of being able to negotiate a different FTA with Indonesia doesn't outweigh the downside of losing full access to the EU hence the unworkable proposal to have their cake and eat it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,823 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    blanch152 wrote:
    I think what's beginning to happen in UK government circles is that the realisation is slowly dawning that the upside of being able to negotiate a different FTA with Indonesia doesn't outweigh the downside of losing full access to the EU hence the unworkable proposal to have their cake and eat it.

    Especially if the different FTA with Indonesia is worse than the one they have as an EU member.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    As for our Taoiseach, he could begin to discuss the British proposals with James Brokenshire and see how these could work instead of being shrill about them.

    If the UK want to play silly games that is on them. There is no reason for us to play along. The bottom line is that there is no way Ireland or the EU is going to allow a situation where GMO products or whatever can flow unrestricted into the EU. Either the UK enters into a customs union with the EU, accepts restrictions on its right to negotiate trade deals or it does not. That is up to them. As TM would say it is a red line item.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    I get the impression the UK are trying to use the Irish border as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations. Not surprising considering May's attitudes to the North.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,524 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    I get the impression the UK are trying to use the Irish border as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations. Not surprising considering May's attitudes to the North.
    Except EU has already said they are not going to talk trade until it's resolved to a satisfactory level (which clearly is not the case today and has been stated by multiple countries); it's once again Brexit style "If you don't give me what I want I'll shoot myself in my knee cap" style negotiation where EU honestly has a lot less to lose compared to UK yet UK thinks threatening self harm will sway EU somehow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,998 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Yes I believe they are trying to leverage the Irish border to sneak in a porous border for themselves (that they can point to when it comes to discussing cross channel customs arrangements).

    It's patent nonsense to call for a porous border for some firms. It's completely unworkable and would be a burocratic nightmare.


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Nody wrote: »
    "If you don't give me what I want I'll shoot myself in my knee cap" style negotiation where EU honestly has a lot less to lose compared to UK yet UK thinks threatening self harm will sway EU somehow.

    They should be encouraged to take the next step - a hunger strike.


This discussion has been closed.
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