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Brexit discussion thread II

1…4849515354…305

Comments

  • #1502
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,184 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good morning!

    I don't share your view. I think these were clearly wrong and clearly intended to manipulate voters.

    If they weren't certainly true they shouldn't have been said.
    No prediction about the future can be "certainly true", particularly where it depends on the future behaviour of human beings (as all the predictions you list did).

    If your rule were strictly applied, then the entire Brexit campaign, suggesting that the UK would be better off outside the EU, was a tissue of statements that should never have been made; they were not certainly true, and they were intended to manipulate voters. Your own posts on this board expressing the view that the UK will negotiate trade deals more advantageous than the ones it currently participates in are posts that you should not be making; they are not certainly true. And so forth.

    On edit: I think you can criticise predictions about the future if you can show that the people making the predictions did not themselves believe them when they made the statement. "The UK will negotiate good trade deals" is not a lie, and does not become a lie if, in the event, the UK negotiates terrible trade deals, or no trade deals at all. But "I believe that the UK will negotiate good trade deals" would be a lie if the person making the statement did not believe that.


  • #1503
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 43,487 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Yes, there's no way to justify your view as a democrat and oppose implementing the result of the referendum. There's no way to claim referenda don't or haven't had a place on the British electoral system when they have been used for decades either.

    Yes there is. It was advisory, a glorified opinion poll. I don't know why you keep abusing that word to be honest. You've also ignored the argument I've made.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Let's be fair the remain side sold some shocking lies. The Treasury said there would be unemployment and a recession in the immediate aftermath of leaving the EU.

    Clue is in the name there, "Analysis". The reasoning is clearly visible.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    [URL=
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/08/brexit-hit-house-prices-significantly-george-osborne-eu-referendum]George Osborne said house prices would plummet and mortgage costs would increase[/URL].
    This didn't happen. Borrowing costs are lower. House prices are broadly stable and rising in most areas.

    We haven't left yet.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Barack Obama told us that the UK would be at the back of the queue in respect to trade with the US.

    So far this seems to be true. Trump's opinion on the subject seems to change with the tides so who really knows.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    The IMF warned the UK would be in recession in 2017. Not true.

    Again, the UK is still an EU member.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Edit: The IMF again on a prophesied stock market crash after the referendum and severe crash in house prices. Didn't happen, wasn't going to happen. Manipulative fear mongering.

    You don't seem to know what a lie is. A lie is a deliberate falsehood told by someone who know what the truth is. This was a warning of what could happen.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    David Cameron told us he would be prime minister after the referendum and he would pull Article 50 after the referendum.

    This might have been true when he'd said it. He was banking heavily on a leave win at the time. It's ultimately irrelevant. People voted Leave regardless. This was a trivial thing to base your argument on.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Where was ancapailldorcha during the referendum campaign? He'll probably make some excuses for these now. I don't particularly mind if he does.

    Would it not be a bit hypocritical of my to ask you to list something and then not respond?

    The fact is Brexit is happening. The people voted for it. Get over it.

    That's more like it! That's the Brexiteer mindset right there. "We got what we wanted and that's all that matters. Who cares that you're worried about your job or your right to live here? Screw the NHS, we were never going to fund it anyway."

    I appreciate the honesty at least. I truly do.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #1504
    solodeogloria
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    Good morning!

    Again - all of these are about the immediate aftermath of the referendum. You don't get to rewrite what was said.

    Personally I think it's pretty clear how the remain campaign bent the truth time and time again. I believed it also when I went to the ballot box.

    The pressing question is:
    If project fear got it so catastrophically wrong then, why should people believe the fearmongering now?

    From what I can see there's no good reason to both on the basis of their track record and on the basis of what they are saying. This is a fair point. How much more wrong could they have been?

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


  • #1505
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    If they weren't certainly true they shouldn't have been said.
    It's fair to ask the remain side to acknowledge the clear untruths from their side of the campaign.
    When you're picking up your P45 and looking abroad for work will you accept that Brexit was a mistake? I know, you're a dev (like me) so you'll likely not end up having to leave the UK for work, especially as the image the UK is now presenting to the world is (sadly) a less welcoming one and devs from the rest of the world are less interested in working in the UK now. But for many other jobs this will not be the case. Brexit is going to do massive damage to the UK economy if it happens the way the Tories want it to happen (though I agree that it should be Brexit or no Brexit (possibly not an option any more). A Norway deal is the worst of both worlds for the UK).

    So let me rephrase. Will you accept Brexit was a mistake if unemployment rises to say 10% a couple of years after the formalities and hand-holding transition periods end?


  • #1506
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 43,487 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Again - all of these are about the immediate aftermath of the referendum. You don't get to rewrite what was said.

    No, they weren't no matter how you lie about it.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Personally I think it's pretty clear how the remain campaign bent the truth time and time again. I believed it also when I went to the ballot box.

    So you were fine with the racist fearmongering from the Leave side, the threats about Turkey joining, the lies about the NHS, the promises of increased trade deals, etc.... Lies that suit your agenda are fine so you'll just lie about the other side then so.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    The pressing question is:
    If project fear got it so catastrophically wrong then, why should people believe the fearmongering now?

    Project fear won if you recall. The Remain side made arguments based on the opinions of experts and projections. They didn't need to resort to stoking people's prejudices or insinuating that their wages were low because of foreigners or that 80 million Turks were on the way.

    If I rephrase your question to ask why people should be optimistic about Brexit then some reasons for optimism would probably help instead of the usual spiel about glorious opportunities you can't detail.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    From what I can see there's no good reason to both on the basis of their track record and on the basis of what they are saying. This is a fair point. How much more wrong could they have been?

    You mean the referendum that was lost by the remain side by a few percent? Hardly a case that they couldn't have been "Much more wrong".

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • #1507
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,184 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good morning!

    Again - all of these are about the immediate aftermath of the referendum. You don't get to rewrite what was said.

    Personally I think it's pretty clear how the remain campaign bent the truth time and time again. I believed it also when I went to the ballot box.

    The pressing question is:
    If project fear got it so catastrophically wrong then, why should people believe the fearmongering now?

    From what I can see there's no good reason to both on the basis of their track record and on the basis of what they are saying. This is a fair point. How much more wrong could they have been?
    They could have been much, much wronger. They could have been as wrong as the people who said that the UK was sending 350 million a week to the EU, for example. They could have been as wrong as Boris Johnson when he said that "EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected", which it now turns out is not the government's plan. They could get it as wrong as Liam Fox, who during the referendum campaign predicted that a UK outside the EU would take advantage of its freedom to negotiate for itself a different trading relationship with the world, tailored to British circumstances, but now that he is the Minister in charge of doing precisely that has decided to target a trading relationship modelled as closely as possible on the one the UK currently has as an EU member.

    And these examples could be multiplied. But what would be the point? Each prediction is an independent event. The fact that a particular prediction came true, or did not come true, tells us nothing about whether an entirely different prediction will, or will not, come true. Whether a prediction about the future behaviour of other people will come true or not depends on the behaviour of those other people, and not on the character of the person making the prediction.


  • #1508
    solodeogloria
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    Good morning!
    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    No, they weren't no matter how you lie about it.

    The first link is a treasury report about the immediate aftermath of the referendum.

    George Osborne was speaking of an economic shock and house prices after the referendum.

    The IMF spoke about the same shock in the second article.

    The IMF predicted a recession in 2017 before Brexit day in 2019.
    Read the articles again. None of the stuff in here was true.
    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    So you were fine with the racist fearmongering from the Leave side, the threats about Turkey joining, the lies about the NHS, the promises of increased trade deals, etc.... Lies that suit your agenda are fine so you'll just lie about the other side then so.

    The prospect about trade deals is very much true and is will an argument for being out. When the UK leaves the customs union these can be struck.

    The arguments about Turkey and Iraq were disgraceful. I agree. I wish you could honestly say the same about the fearmongering from the Treasury.

    The figures about the NHS were also wrong.

    There's no point calling me a liar when I'm willing to say that these weren't true. There's also no point calling me a liar for reading what the links I've posted said.

    I think you ought to go for a walk and get away from the internet for a while.
    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    The Remain side made arguments based on the opinions of experts and projections. They didn't need to resort to stoking people's prejudices or insinuating that their wages were low because of foreigners or that 80 million Turks were on the way.

    What you mean is that people with vested interests massaged the truth in a big big way. Both are disgraceful. I don't need to do either or with you.
    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    You mean the referendum that was lost by the remain side by a few percent? Hardly a case that they couldn't have been "Much more wrong".

    The "facts" that were presented by project fear couldn't have been any more wrong. My point is why should I believe them now?

    murphaph: Tell you what. If I'm sacked directly because of Brexit and if I have to sell my house and move back into the EU directly because of Brexit I'll definitely agree that I was wrong.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


  • #1509
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    We still don't know (but it is suspected) for sure that the referendum wasn't manipulated through social media, targeting individual users who may have been more suggestible and ensuring those swing voters received messages likely to sway them to vote leave.

    Until the Cambridge Analytica etc. connections are investigated by means of a full public enquiry I won't believe it. The DUP spent half a million pounds on such social media targeting of mainland GB residents! It all stinks and needs proper investigation. I believe democracy was subverted and it only needs to have been a small bit and things would have gone the other way.

    Having said all that....the UK is simply too proud and we'd be back here again in 3 or 4 years. Brexit needs to happen and fail for the UK to finally realise it is not something special any more. Just another mid sized economy, smaller than Germany and around the same size as France. It's tragic but I don't believe it can be put to bed any other way.


  • #1510
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 43,487 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    The first link is a treasury report about the immediate aftermath of the referendum.

    George Osborne was speaking of an economic shock and house prices after the referendum.

    The IMF spoke about the same shock in the second article.

    The IMF predicted a recession in 2017 before Brexit day in 2019.
    Read the articles again. None of the stuff in here was true.

    Unless there is evidence that they knew that they were spreading falsehood, these aren't lies. They are educated projections made by experts. The Leave side knew full well that they weren't going to boost NHS funding and that Turkey was nowhere near joining and yet they claimed otherwise anyway. There is a difference.
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    The prospect about trade deals is very much true and is will an argument for being out. When the UK leaves the customs union these can be struck.

    And if previous form is anything to go by, it'll take many years.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #1511
    Panrich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,069 ✭✭✭Panrich


    The UK seems to be on a path to a hard Brexit and not one imposed by the EU (although there may be a few nasty surprises to come from that side yet).

    It is very peculiar to me that the narrative of 'Brexit means Brexit' has been largely unchallenged by all sides in the media since the referendum.

    Surely the referendum result being as close as it was meant an exit from the EU but with as close ties as possible e.g. Customs union was ' the will of the people'. Otherwise we are to believe that more than 95% of leave voters wanted a hard Brexit and that has not been proven as the question was never asked.


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  • #1512
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,184 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Panrich wrote: »
    It is very peculiar to me that the narrative of 'Brexit means Brexit' has been largely unchallenged by all sides in the media since the referendum.
    It's hard to challenge a tautology which is basically devoid of meaning.

    "Rumboflange means rumboflange!" Discuss.


  • #1513
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    It's hard to challenge a tautology which is basically devoid of meaning.

    "Rumboflange means rumboflange!" Discuss.

    unless of course Brexit means an exceptionally close relationship between the UK and EU that involves free movement pf people, payment towards the eu budget member of a "Special" customs union, membership of the FTA etc but isn't actually being in the eu, because Brexit means Brexit goddammit.


  • #1514
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    murphaph: Tell you what. If I'm sacked directly because of Brexit and if I have to sell my house and move back into the EU directly because of Brexit I'll definitely agree that I was wrong.
    Now now, I didn't ask that in the end because you are in a skilled profession that will always be in demand, pretty much anywhere.

    I asked:
    So let me rephrase. Will you accept Brexit was a mistake if unemployment rises to say 10% a couple of years after the formalities and hand-holding transition periods end?


  • #1515
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,184 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    unless of course Brexit means an exceptionally close relationship between the UK and EU that involves free movement pf people, payment towards the eu budget member of a "Special" customs union, membership of the FTA etc but isn't actually being in the eu, because Brexit means Brexit goddammit.
    If Brexit means anything, it means the UK not being a member of the EU. It doesn't inherently mean anything about what relationship with the EU the UK might have as a non-Member. There's a range of possibilities, from a very close relationship to a very distant one, and there are functioning models for relationships across the entire range. Norway twice voted against EU membership (thus proving themselves even more opposed to it than the UK!) and yet has an extremely close relationship; there is no evidence that the Norwegian people feel betrayed or let down by this.

    The Brexit vote doesn't tell us anything about what the British people want in this regard; nobody thought to ask them. The likelihood is that there's a range of views about this, but it's reasonable to hypothesize that the 48% who voted to remain, and some non-trivial fraction of the 52% who voted to leave, would lean towards a closer, rather than more distant, relationship.


  • #1516
    ThisRegard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27,833 ✭✭✭✭ThisRegard


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    I dare say that if I were to trawl through the archive of your posts on board I could make you a liar.

    He did vote for remain, ergo....


  • #1517
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    If Brexit means anything, it means the UK not being a member of the EU. It doesn't inherently mean anything about what relationship with the EU the UK might have as a non-Member. There's a range of possibilities, from a very close relationship to a very distant one, and there are functioning models for relationships across the entire range. Norway twice voted against EU membership (thus proving themselves even more opposed to it than the UK!) and yet has an extremely close relationship; there is no evidence that the Norwegian people feel betrayed or let down by this.

    The Brexit vote doesn't tell us anything about what the British people want in this regard; nobody thought to ask them. The likelihood is that there's a range of views about this, but it's reasonable to hypothesize that the 48% who voted to remain, and some non-trivial fraction of the 52% who voted to leave, would lean towards a closer, rather than more distant, relationship.


    Sadly, it does seem clear what the people of the UK wish in terms of Brexit.

    They want to be able to go on holiday to Spain, France and Italy without any delays at passport control and the ability to be able to retire to a nice spot in the sun without restriction. However, they should be allowed impose strict controls on who enters the UK so that their jobs aren't taken away and that terrorists can't get in and that workers from Eastern Europe aren't pushing up house prices.

    In business, traditional British products shouldn't have to compete with cheaper alternatives from the rest of the EU, but we should be allowed keep our great financial services centre in London and sell to anywhere in the EU without restriction.

    Finally, despite all these contradictory positions, those Irish are great craic and should be allowed come and go as they wish (there aren't that many of them, and they can always go home and grow potatoes if the economy turns bad) and sure we can find some way that technology can work out that border thing.


  • #1518
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    If Brexit means anything, it means the UK not being a member of the EU. It doesn't inherently mean anything about what relationship with the EU the UK might have as a non-Member. There's a range of possibilities, from a very close relationship to a very distant one, and there are functioning models for relationships across the entire range. Norway twice voted against EU membership (thus proving themselves even more opposed to it than the UK!) and yet has an extremely close relationship; there is no evidence that the Norwegian people feel betrayed or let down by this.

    The Brexit vote doesn't tell us anything about what the British people want in this regard; nobody thought to ask them. The likelihood is that there's a range of views about this, but it's reasonable to hypothesize that the 48% who voted to remain, and some non-trivial fraction of the 52% who voted to leave, would lean towards a closer, rather than more distant, relationship.

    yes, but for it to be effective, the message that Brexit is happening needs to be very loud and clear


  • #1519
    joeysoap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,265 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    If Brexit means anything, it means the UK not being a member of the EU. It doesn't inherently mean anything about what relationship with the EU the UK might have as a non-Member. There's a range of possibilities, from a very close relationship to a very distant one, and there are functioning models for relationships across the entire range. Norway twice voted against EU membership (thus proving themselves even more opposed to it than the UK!) and yet has an extremely close relationship; there is no evidence that the Norwegian people feel betrayed or let down by this.

    The Brexit vote doesn't tell us anything about what the British people want in this regard; nobody thought to ask them. The likelihood is that there's a range of views about this, but it's reasonable to hypothesize that the 48% who voted to remain, and some non-trivial fraction of the 52% who voted to leave, would lean towards a closer, rather than more distant, relationship.

    Afaik Norway allows the 4 freedoms and contributes to the EU budget. We are being told that the border with NI is the 'only' land border with the EU when Norway has a long border with Sweden. also afaik Norway more or less shadows EU rules and regulations. I think the no vote was a reflection on Norways vast reserves of currency (and oil). Not an anti EU vote as such.


  • #1520
    Calina
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Calina


    It is the only UK land border. Any agreement post Brexit doesn't necessarily apply to Gibralter.

    If you look at any map of Europe, there are quite a few landborders. Finland, and two of the Baltic are bordered by Russia. Switzerland borders 4 EU countries as does the Ukraine. Norway is not like something proving that Ireland is an exception. In British terms, Ireland is the only landborder.


  • #1521
    joeysoap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,265 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    Yes, of course. Only Uk land border.


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  • #1522
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    This thread really is an embarrassment to the forum.
    Take a read of the Daily Mail or Express comments section. Such attitudes certainly exist.


  • #1523
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Today Theresa May refused to condemn Donald Trump's statements on racism. Has she got a single principled bone in her body? I take it she's attemlting to get on the good side inthe hope of a trade deal.


  • #1524
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    murphaph wrote: »
    Take a read of the Daily Mail or Express comments section. Such attitudes certainly exist.

    Yep. These attitudes aren't disimilar to those in the Tory party either. Boris Johnsin's equally vacuous father uses the term "Irish bog rat" and his don refers to black people as piccaninnies.


  • #1525
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    Today Theresa May refused to condemn Donald Trump's statements on racism. Has she got a single principled bone in her body? I take it she's attemlting to get on the good side inthe hope of a trade deal.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/16/theresa-may-joins-cross-party-criticism-donald-trump-charlottesville-speech


  • #1526
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/16/theresa-may-joins-cross-party-criticism-donald-trump-charlottesville-speech

    But refused to condemn Trump specifically.


  • #1527
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 43,487 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: We have a forum for Feedback. Please do not discuss moderation here.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #1528
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Scientists for the EU summed up the future with the following statement:

    If Rees-Mogg becomes PM... then we, like America, will be a declining power tragically trying to look strong by fronting ourselves with a comic stereotype of our national character.


  • #1529
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    But refused to condemn Trump specifically.

    Oh dear god.

    The Corbynistas really are a desperate bunch


  • #1530
    sfakiaman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 737 ✭✭✭sfakiaman


    The Uk is already a declining power tragically trying to look strong by fronting ourselves with a comic stereotype of our national character.


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  • #1531
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 43,487 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: Can we have more substantial arguments please than just random one-liners and quotes.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



This discussion has been closed.
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