Irish Border and Brexit

jm08 · 09-08-2017 05:54PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, I don't believe that the outward-looking interconnected world of 2017 is as likely to follow men of violence as the insular unconnected parochial village of 1969.

Those communities you speak of, they just don't think like that any more.

They will if they are ignored again. Sinn Fein, gets the biggest nationalist vote in NI. The SDLP has been wiped out.

edit: the world of the DUP isn't looking outward, is it?

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 06:02PM

jm08 wrote: »

They will if they are ignored again. Sinn Fein, gets the biggest nationalist vote in NI. The SDLP has been wiped out.

SF have done one hell of a job keeping almost all points of view in check and behind the GFA.
They will not command that position if fortified border posts go up. They will be sidelined IMO.

It stands to reason if you look at what they have achieved. A hard border is completely against the spirit of the GFA.
The progress that agreement promised has already stagnated and now a hard border is to be reimposed.

oscarBravo · 09-08-2017 06:19PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

blanch152 wrote: »

Who will the dissidents gain support from?

The community that is affected by partition and a hard border.

Just so I'm absolutely clear about this: you're telling us that people who will be affected by a hard border will be prepared to support terrorism in order to prevent it? And you think this is an objectively reasonable position for them to take?

Are there any other political positions you think justify supporting terrorism, or is it just those you agree with?

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 06:26PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

Just so I'm absolutely clear about this: you're telling us that people who will be affected by a hard border will be prepared to support terrorism in order to prevent it? And you think this is an objectively reasonable position for them to take?

Are there any other political positions you think justify supporting terrorism, or is it just those you agree with?

Nice try.

Understanding something is not supporting it. This is a debate were we are all offering our opinions. Mine is based on what happened before here and what i see happening into the future.
The EU, the Irish and British governments recognise what this may do to the peace process.
Are they 'supporting terrorism' by doing that?

When they say that it could damage the peace process, what do you think they mean?

oscarBravo · 09-08-2017 06:35PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

[Dissidents will gain support from t]he community that is affected by partition and a hard border.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Understanding something is not supporting it.

I wish you'd make up your mind.

Charles Babbage · 09-08-2017 06:50PM

Two things. The Dublin government is no more entitled to renege on the Good Friday Agreement than the British government is.

People support the GFA, the dissidents get no little or no support because they stand against the GFA. If the governments renege on the agreement then they will not get support from decent people either. A government without moral authority will only be able to use large force as an alternative to public acceptance.

murphaph · 09-08-2017 09:51PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The community that is affected by partition and a hard border.

So ordinary decent people along the border who could be inconvenienced by customs checks would support the murder of customs officers. Is that what you are saying here?

murphaph · 09-08-2017 09:57PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Two things. The Dublin government is no more entitled to renege on the Good Friday Agreement than the British government is.

People support the GFA, the dissidents get no little or no support because they stand against the GFA. If the governments renege on the agreement then they will not get support from decent people either. A government without moral authority will only be able to use large force as an alternative to public acceptance.

If NI erupts again there'll be wide scale support in the south for a hardened border! Many of us are sick of the sectarian sh!te that emanates from the place even after all these years. Like bloody children most of the time.

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 10:05PM

murphaph wrote: »

So ordinary decent people along the border who could be inconvenienced by customs checks would support the murder of customs officers. Is that what you are saying here?

I think if you look at how the conflict escalated the last time you will see how the communities become polarised.
Nobody will be supporting killing (I think very few ever did that) but because they are forced to be on a 'side' they will see themselves in a war/conflict. Do ordinary decent people anywhere support killing when their soldiers go to war? No they would rather it didn't happen but believe it to be necessary. A harsh reality.

That is what happened before and will happen again if this becomes about partition. Make no mistake, a lot, who identify as Irish, see that as unfinished business.

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 10:11PM

murphaph wrote: »

If NI erupts again there'll be wide scale support in the south for a hardened border! Many of us are sick of the sectarian sh!te that emanates from the place even after all these years. Like bloody children most of the time.

It will erupt because those with responsibility have failed again and because people are too lazy to confront the reason for cyclical conflict - partition.

blanch152 · 09-08-2017 10:20PM

murphaph wrote: »

So ordinary decent people along the border who could be inconvenienced by customs checks would support the murder of customs officers. Is that what you are saying here?

Well, actually it isn't quite clear. It basically seems to me that he believes that if some dissident terrorists cold-bloodedly murder ordinary decent customs officers, that the communities will be so outraged by the PSNI, the Gardai and the Army attempting to bring the cold-blooded murdering terrorists to justice, that they will arise up and support the terrorists. At least it seems that is the logic.

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 10:29PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, actually it isn't quite clear. It basically seems to me that he believes that if some dissident terrorists cold-bloodedly murder ordinary decent customs officers, that the communities will be so outraged by the PSNI, the Gardai and the Army attempting to bring the cold-blooded murdering terrorists to justice, that they will arise up and support the terrorists. At least it seems that is the logic.

I think I mapped out fairly clearly how the communities will descend into conflict.
It is my opinion based on what I know.
Misrepresent that if you wish.

Paramilitaries will fill the vacuum if people feel they have been abandoned exactly like it happened before.

oscarBravo · 09-08-2017 10:37PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It will erupt because those with responsibility have failed again and because people are too lazy to confront the reason for cyclical conflict - partition.

I'm reminded of a team leadership course I was on years ago, which included a session on negotiation. The most memorable line to come out of it was: "Look, why don't we just compromise and do it my way?"

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 10:45PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

I'm reminded of a team leadership course I was on years ago, which included a session on negotiation. The most memorable line to come out of it was: "Look, why don't we just compromise and do it my way?"

We are pretty much getting to that point. Sometimes you have to lead. We have Irish governments leaders talking about unification. Won't take too much more to have properly addressed and confronted as a serious option.

You never answered, what do you think the EU, the Irish and British government and the security force of the PSNI mean when they give voice to fears that Brexit and a hard border is a threat to the peace process?

Charles Babbage · 09-08-2017 11:02PM

murphaph wrote: »

If NI erupts again there'll be wide scale support in the south for a hardened border! Many of us are sick of the sectarian sh!te that emanates from the place even after all these years. Like bloody children most of the time.

The usual case of I'm alright Jack. The people of Belcoo are no different from those in Blacklion, no reasonable person could justify building a wall between them. Maybe reintroduce checks down at Friedrichstrasse too?

Charles Babbage · 09-08-2017 11:28PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

I'm reminded of a team leadership course I was on years ago, which included a session on negotiation. The most memorable line to come out of it was: "Look, why don't we just compromise and do it my way?"

Well if you believe that then you will be opposing the British unilaterally changing the border. All people want is present agreements to continue.

tomwaterford · 09-08-2017 11:38PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The usual case of I'm alright Jack.

It's a depressing reality that there's a word in Irish for this me feinism

Has the northern Ireland civil service the capacity to employ customs post officers

If not....I suggest some community workers should be promoted

If there's going to be checkpoints....let them be run by people who don't want them and have them as hamstrung and ineffective as possible

Couple hundred miles of the border that the British wish going by brexit to stop immigration from eu into the UK,

Unless they make it the most militarised area in the western world or build a ridiculous trump style wall....otherwise every second border farmer will become effective people traffickers by letting people walk across there land

Commonsense solution is a same basic vat rate across the 32 counties (to nullify smuggling) and put the border going to the UK the mainland of England, Scotland and wales

Chips Lovell · 10-08-2017 05:36AM

I don't think a customs post has any innate quality that would oblige someone to blow it up. You'd expect that anyone living on the border who became aware of someone doing such a thing would, if they had any sense of civic responsibility l, report the perpetrators to the Gardai or PSNI.

Peregrinus · 10-08-2017 05:44AM

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

I don't think a customs post has any innate quality that would oblige someone to blow it up.

It's its symbolic qualities, not it's innate qualities, which would lead people to blow it up.

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

You'd expect that anyone living on the border who became aware of someone doing such a thing would, if they had any sense of civic responsibility l, report the perpetrators to the Gardai or PSNI.

Nobody who can remember the 1970s or 1980s would expect any such thing.

murphaph · 10-08-2017 06:53AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think I mapped out fairly clearly how the communities will descend into conflict.
It is my opinion based on what I know.
Misrepresent that if you wish.

Paramilitaries will fill the vacuum if people feel they have been abandoned exactly like it happened before.

Yikes. There's a huge difference between a bit of border inconvenience and being burnt out of your house by a loyalist mob!

I have more confidence in the people along the border that they would not support or give succour to anyone who would seek to murder customs officers.

By the way...do you think these terrorists would attempt to murder Irish customs officers too, or just the (probably lower key) British ones?

solodeogloria · 10-08-2017 07:06AM

Good morning!

It's quite frightening to see how willing the hardcore Europhiles are to accept a hard border.

Let's look at the facts:
The Irish government want an open border.
The UK government want an open border.
The European Union have called for "creative solutions".

The UK Government will be publishing a position paper on the matter over the next few weeks.

The European Commission is accountable here also. It needs to stand by the Good Friday Agreement also and respect the interests of Ireland as its member state. If the EU impose a hard border against the will of the UK or Ireland that is it's fault not the UK's.

It's unbelievable how willing people are to accept that the EU has a right to impose a hard border! I suspect those arguing for it haven't been to Donegal very often.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

murphaph · 10-08-2017 07:07AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The usual case of I'm alright Jack. The people of Belcoo are no different from those in Blacklion, no reasonable person could justify building a wall between them. Maybe reintroduce checks down at Friedrichstrasse too?

There are plenty of examples of ethnic minorities on the "wrong" side of European borders. Sorbs in Germany. Hungarians in Romania. Turks in Greece.

There's no excuse for an eruption of violence in the north, customs or not.

The UK is letting the side down here but that does not mean there should be violence or that it should be excused.

Peregrinus · 10-08-2017 07:10AM

The question is not whether there is an excuse for violence; the question is whether it will happen.

And, in circumstances where you have a signficant chunk of people who consider the border fundamentally illegitimate and who find it oppressive when it becomes a hard border, and given the history of the place, yeah, I'd say there's a sporting chance.

You can deplore that all you like, but that won't change anything. Embarking on a policy that will forseeably lead to violence doesn't become a good idea just because the violence will be deplorable violence.

murphaph · 10-08-2017 07:13AM

I reiterate. I do not want a hard border but do not see a way around some increased level of checks as it becomes an EU external border.

FrancieBrady · 10-08-2017 07:20AM

murphaph wrote: »

Yikes. There's a huge difference between a bit of border inconvenience and being burnt out of your house by a loyalist mob!

I have more confidence in the people along the border that they would not support or give succour to anyone who would seek to murder customs officers.

By the way...do you think these terrorists would attempt to murder Irish customs officers too, or just the (probably lower key) British ones?

Go back and read the piece where I mapped out how I see it going.

There won't be a 'hands up who supports this' poll.

It will be a spiral into conflict, very much like how it happened before. The situation will go out of control.
If you think what happened before was the result of the acts of 'terrorists' then you completely misunderstand how it happened.

What are currently called 'dissidents' will ramp up the attacks. It will not matter who supports those attack nor who condemns them.
The British will have no choice but to fortify the border posts and to send in protection.
What will happen then will have nothing to do with what people think about attacks on customs posts.

FrancieBrady · 10-08-2017 07:22AM

murphaph wrote: »

There are plenty of examples of ethnic minorities on the "wrong" side of European borders. Sorbs in Germany. Hungarians in Romania. Turks in Greece.

There's no excuse for an eruption of violence in the north, customs or not.

The UK is letting the side down here but that does not mean there should be violence or that it should be excused.

There was no excuse for what happened before, BUT it still happened.

The point is, it can happen again because the cause of it is still there.

murphaph · 10-08-2017 07:32AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

It's quite frightening to see how willing the hardcore Europhiles are to accept a hard border.

Let's look at the facts:
The Irish government want an open border.
The UK government want an open border.
The European Union have called for "creative solutions".

The UK Government will be publishing a position paper on the matter over the next few weeks.

The European Commission is accountable here also. It needs to stand by the Good Friday Agreement also and respect the interests of Ireland as its member state. If the EU impose a hard border against the will of the UK or Ireland that is it's fault not the UK's.

It's unbelievable how willing people are to accept that the EU has a right to impose a hard border! I suspect those arguing for it haven't been to Donegal very often.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The UK brought all this mess upon us.

FrancieBrady · 10-08-2017 07:36AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

It's quite frightening to see how willing the hardcore Europhiles are to accept a hard border.

Let's look at the facts:
The Irish government want an open border.
The UK government want an open border.
The European Union have called for "creative solutions".

The UK Government will be publishing a position paper on the matter over the next few weeks.

The European Commission is accountable here also. It needs to stand by the Good Friday Agreement also and respect the interests of Ireland as its member state. If the EU impose a hard border against the will of the UK or Ireland that is it's fault not the UK's.

It's unbelievable how willing people are to accept that the EU has a right to impose a hard border! I suspect those arguing for it haven't been to Donegal very often.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The EU did not create this situation, the UK did because it cannot face the fact that it is itself breaking up.
It's component parts clearly want to go in different directions.

Peregrinus · 10-08-2017 07:47AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

It's quite frightening to see how willing the hardcore Europhiles are to accept a hard border.

Let's look at the facts:
The Irish government want an open border.
The UK government want an open border.
The European Union have called for "creative solutions".

The UK Government will be publishing a position paper on the matter over the next few weeks.

The European Commission is accountable here also. It needs to stand by the Good Friday Agreement also and respect the interests of Ireland as its member state. If the EU impose a hard border against the will of the UK or Ireland that is it's fault not the UK's.

It's unbelievable how willing people are to accept that the EU has a right to impose a hard border! I suspect those arguing for it haven't been to Donegal very often.

The UK say they want an open border.

But they also say that they want to leave the EU, they want to leave the EEA, they want to leave the customs union, they want to control their borders, they want to end free movement.

If they have magic fairy dust which will enable all these things to come true at once, now would be a good time to start spreading it around. But until they do, they just look like they're still living in Brexiteer fantasy-land, where you can have everything your heart desires, children, as long as you believe in fairies.

And people who talk about the situation we're facing as the EU imposing a hard border are right there in fantasy-land with them. Here on Planet Earth, the current open border is entirely a consequence of the EU, the single market and the four freedoms, and any hardening of the border will be entirely a consequence of the UK's repudiation of all this. I'd have slightly more respect for Brexiteers if they'd actually own their own policies, rather than pretending that everything is Someone Else's Fault.

murphaph · 10-08-2017 08:11AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There was no excuse for what happened before, BUT it still happened.

The point is, it can happen again because the cause of it is still there.

Last time it was completely different. Catholics were treated like dogs by the state. The British government finally came in and imposed direct rule and certainly by the mid 70's the inequalities in housing provision etc. had been addressed.

There was no excuse for events that happened after that for sure.

I do believe that there will be a small handful of criminals who will take a shot at anything that says "border" but I don't believe they should be able to force the Republic of Ireland out of the EU!!

We don't welcome this mess the British have landed on us but I am not about to saw my arm off because I have a sore finger. We'll have to make do as best we can with the border post Brexit.

I'd like to see it pushed back to the Irish sea but I don't see how that's compatible with EU regulations as you could have all sorts of US produced sub standard food in NI and this would be unnaceptable to the EU (as it would be to us if the Polish-Ukrainian border had some oddity that allowed substandard US food in via the Ukraine. We in the EU ALL rely on the proper controls at the external border to help ensure our food is safe and up to standard.

I'd welcome a "special status" for NI within the EU but there is zero chance of that happening (from both sides).

I'm a realist. Some form of border controls are on the way. Some criminals will shoot at people working on these controls. These criminals cannot be allowed to determine the path of an entire nation.

Irish Border and Brexit

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