2017 UK General Election - 8th June

Irishweather · 09-06-2017 08:15AM

R00ster wrote: »

I see, makes sense. The last SOS for Wales was a Welsh conservative mp, but obviously NI is different. Labour and the conservatives don't run candidates in NI either. I wonder if they'll at least ask for SOS

The Conservatives do run candidates in Northern Ireland.

09-06-2017 08:15AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Oh, I think when the dust settles the Tories and the DUP will have a theoretical majority. I just think Blitzkreig called it a bit soon.

It puts the DUP in a powerful but tricky position. On the one hand, they're a pro-Brexit party. On the other hand, they know that's not a popular position in NI, which voted "Remain". On the third hand, practically all commentators identlfy Brexit as harmful to NI, in economic terms. If they use their position at Westminster to push for a softer Brexit (at least as far as NI is concerned) that means facilitating and maintaning links with the Republic; their voter base won't like that (and it wouldn't be their instinct). But if they don't, then they'll get blamed when, inevitably, NI suffers economically under Brexit.

So, if you were the DUP, what exactly would you be demanding from the Tories as the price of your support?

LOL. The DUP's base would support everyone having 200 calories a day if it "strengthened the Union".

Dyr · 09-06-2017 08:20AM

First Up wrote: »

If the DUP are propping up a Tory government, it pretty well rules out free movement on the island of Ireland. The DUP will not agree to a virtual EU frontier between NI and Britain so there has to be a border.

Its close to the worst possible outcome. The UK goes into Brexit in disarray - a laughing stock. The only positive for Ireland is that this mess will increase the chances of an investment and capital flight in our direction.

Umm..it's the opposite, the DUP will want a soft brexit and no hard border. They'll also want to dismantle the good Friday and St Andrews agreement

Billy Reid · 09-06-2017 08:21AM

Cazale wrote: »

Might be time for an extraordinary Sinn Fein Ard Fheis.

Likely?

First Up · 09-06-2017 08:25AM

Bambi wrote:

Umm..it's the opposite, the DUP will want a soft brexit and no hard border. They'll also want to dismantle the good Friday and St Andrews agreement

There has to be a border between the UK and EU. The question is from where it will be managed. If it isn't between the two jurisdictions in Ireland, the only other option is to put it between the two islands. Will the DUP agree to that?

Irishweather · 09-06-2017 08:26AM

Not a chance.

LeinsterDub · 09-06-2017 08:29AM

Bambi wrote: »

Umm..it's the opposite, the DUP will want a soft brexit and no hard border. They'll also want to dismantle the good Friday and St Andrews agreement

Good Friday and St Andrews are international treaties they can't un pick them

lawred2 · 09-06-2017 08:34AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I doubt it. They have more political leverage at Westminster than they have ever had before or, if we're honest, than they are likely to have again for a very long time. The won't want to squander it by being seen to make unrealistic and improbable demands.

The UK doesn't often have minority or coalition governments, but it has happened in the past. There is no case in which a party contributing only 10 votes to support a minority/coalition government has been able to demand a cabinet post in return, and if the DUP were to demand not only a cabinet post, but one the grant of which would probably bring about the collapse of the NI settlement, they'd be painting themselves as totally detached from reality and completely lacking in political awareness to an almost Trumpish degree. Basically, they'd be signalling that they were not a party with which you could do business, which is pretty much the opposite of the signal that you want to send in a situation like this.

The DUP are detached from reality though

Cazale · 09-06-2017 08:44AM

Billy Reid wrote:

Likely?

I don't think they will take their seats but I know a lot of people in the North who vote Sinn Fein but who don't understand abstensionism. It doesn't matter to them.

As a Republican I wouldn't be too fond of Westminster at all but if the DUP are going to be kingmaker it doesn't bode well for the North especially with devolution looking less likely than ever. It would be a very bitter pill to swallow but they have done that before when they first entered Stormont and Leinster house. Their candidates have in the past had to swear oaths such as in the 1989 local elections where they had to renounce the IRA and it's campaign. Die hard principles have been diluted in the past when required to move forward. It's probably a step too far but if ever they had the reason to do it surely it's now.

Irishweather · 09-06-2017 08:47AM

I think it's a disappointment that there is now no Nationalist voice in Westminster, Margaret Ritchie and so on did a good a job I thought.

ambro25 · 09-06-2017 08:48AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

<...>

Could it get any worse?

<...>

Boris for PM, says I!

Cazale · 09-06-2017 08:50AM

Irishweather wrote:

Not a chance.

They said that about the ceasefire, signing up to the Mitchell principles, decommissioning, recognising the PSNI, entering Leinster House and Stormont, the end of the armed campaign, the IRA standing down, going into government with the DUP, having tea with Mrs Windsor etc. There is always a chance. They'll take the seats eventually so it's just when not if.

devnull · 09-06-2017 08:50AM

Even a DUP+Tory administration will give a very thin majority.

Considering the MayBot was worried previously about rebels in her own party voting against her because she has a slim majority, that's going to be an even bigger issue with a thin majority in a power sharing agreement.

Irishweather · 09-06-2017 08:53AM

Cazale wrote: »

They said that about the ceasefire, signing up to the Mitchell principles, decommissioning, recognising the PSNI, entering Leinster House and Stormont, the end of the armed campaign, the IRA standing down, going into government with the DUP, having tea with Mrs Windsor etc. There is always a chance. They'll take the seats eventually so it's just when not if.

Well, I'd rather they didn't to be honest. Could you imagine Martina Anderson and so on in Parliament.

Dear god no!

Thomas__ · 09-06-2017 08:55AM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Bizarre result in Scotland, SNP still got more than 50% of the seats and 'won' the election for Scottish seats but looking at the vote share, it would appear that more SNP voters switched to Tory than to Labour

Aye, seems really odd, but that´s due to the electoral system. I´m happy to see the UKIP has lost her only one seat in the Commons and guess what, the very die-hard Brexiter Farage is talking about "a second referendum"
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40208941

May is still clinging on her "office" as PM but there is not just rumours that she´ll have to face some "night of the long knifes" soon enough cos the other Tories, probably Johnson himself (he as PM would be even worse as he´s already the laughing stock of Europe), might look for ways how to "replace" her when she´s losing more and more of her backing within the Tory Party. I don´t see a future for her staying as PM, not by the result of this GE for which she´ll get the blame and rightly so, it all rests on her shoulders and her incapability to face the political Opponent in direct debates, her gambling has backfired on her and also rightly so. This "wannabe Thatcher" has lost it and there´s no other to blame for that than herself.

When I watched CNN last night, for a couple of minutes after the Polls have closed and the Exit Poll was published, I was again stunned to see the Pound fall on the exchanges like last year after the result of the Brexit Ref was announced. It´s still falling, even when they say the UK stocks are up.

Pity for Corbyn that he repeatedly stated that he won´t go into any coalitions and he would be better adviced to think again in order to avoid another Tory govt and go into coalition with the SNP and LibDems. There is no other alternative for a coalition govt on the Tory´s side than to go with the (in my view "Little Kippers") DUP which are worse than the Tories themselves.

On CNN, they were already talking about "the revenge of the Brexit Ref Remainers" last night and as it appears, they weren´t far off the mark, weren´t they?

Congratulations to Corbyn, although I am not one of his followers, but it really makes me glad to see Mrs May downhearted for she deserves that like no other before her.

Cazale · 09-06-2017 08:59AM

Thomas__ wrote:

Aye, seems really odd, but thatÂ´s due to the electoral system. IÂ´m happy to see the UKIP has lost her only one seat in the Commons and guess what, the very die-hard Brexiter Farage is talking about "a second referendum"

For such a minor party they get a disproportionate level of coverage in the the British media.

Thomas__ · 09-06-2017 09:00AM

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

May won't be resigning according to the BBC.We'll see what the rest of her party have to say about that.

Of course she won´t, for that is what one has to expect from her, but there are certainly others who will make her go soon enough. Normally, a Party leader and PM who has lost the GE is bound to resign before others tear him / her down from that chair. May is finished, she just refuses to acknowledge and finally admit it. The revolt within the Tory Party is already about to begin and might bring her down sooner than she thinks. I am looking forward to watch her final downfall and if the Tories replace her with Johnson, then that Party is really f+cked and the UK with him as PM as well.

Cazale · 09-06-2017 09:01AM

Irishweather wrote:

Well, I'd rather they didn't to be honest. Could you imagine Martina Anderson and so on in Parliament.

Well NI question time will be just 11 unionists talking among themselves so maybe they will need the company.

Galwayguy35 · 09-06-2017 09:06AM

Looks like it could work out well for the DUP if they can do a deal with the Tories.

Sturgan can probably kiss any hopes of a second Independance referendum goodby now.

Thomas__ · 09-06-2017 09:07AM

Cazale wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote:

Aye, seems really odd, but thatÂ´s due to the electoral system. IÂ´m happy to see the UKIP has lost her only one seat in the Commons and guess what, the very die-hard Brexiter Farage is talking about "a second referendum"

For such a minor party they get a disproportionate level of coverage in the the British media.

They are the very source of and for all that Brexit predicament. Without them, there hardly had been a Brexit Ref at all. So, it´s right to watch them even if some like me really despise them Kippers and Farage at the very top of all of them.

Maybe it has started that some voters realise or have realised by now how they were led the garden path by him and his lies. Same goes for the Tories. Farage wanted a "political shake up" last year with the Brexit Ref, he got it and now this time, another shake up occured and it was backfiring to the Tories and kicked out the only one Kipper MP in the Commons. That´s all very good news to me. I only picked and posted the link to this Farage article because it shows that the one man who always insisted on blocking any attempt for a second ref is now coming up himself with that "possibility".

If you say that it´s not worth to pay attention to what he says anymore, I´m happy to agree with you, but this "u-turn" on his side was worth to be mentioned.

I do hope, that the Brits will be given the chance to vote again on the Brexit in a second Ref and then finally decide whether or not they will vote for rescinding the Brexit vote from 2016 and stay in the EU which would be better for them and probably for us as well.

Thomas__ · 09-06-2017 09:11AM

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Looks like it could work out well for the DUP if they can do a deal with the Tories.

Sturgan can probably kiss any hopes of a second Independance referendum goodby now.

You don´t know what the circumstances will be in 2018/19 and what the result of the Brexit negotiation will be. The second Indy Ref is not off the table, it is still an Option and in case things deteriorate in the negotiations, this Option might become more attractive once again. If LAB, SNP and LibDem would form a coalition to avoid another Tory govt, well, then it would be a bit more difficult for her to call for a second IndyRef given the SNP is part of a UK govt. and works for either a better deal with the EU or even (in case Mr Corbyn would have second thoughts on Brexit) call for a second Brexit Ref based on the final offer from the EU.

First Up · 09-06-2017 09:12AM

Irishweather wrote:

Not a chance.

Of what?

FrancieBrady · 09-06-2017 09:13AM

The DUP assisting in getting Brexit through may not be that bad a thing in the medium term.
I see an opportunity there for the UUP to re-establish themselves when Brexit hurts northern Ireland as it most definitely will.

No bad thing.

Thomas__ · 09-06-2017 09:16AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP assisting in getting Brexit through may not be that bad a thing in the medium term.
I see an opportunity there for the UUP to re-establish themselves when Brexit hurts northern Ireland as it most definitely will.

No bad thing.

Pity the Shinners will not take their 7 seats in the Commons to defeat a Tory / DUP govt in the making. The only two parties in NI who won seats in the Commons are the most stubborn ones. I´m inclined to say "as usual", but one can´t help it, that´s the Northerners voting as they please.

Right2Write · 09-06-2017 09:17AM

Disastrous election for Northern Ireland and SF in particular, despite them increasing their seats:
- the moderate nationalist and unionist vote has been seriously eroded
- the DUP have the whiphand
- SF approach of hoping Brexit will force Scottish Ind seriously damaged with SNP taking a battering
- SF hoped for border poll result there to be seen - 11/7 sectarian headcount to stay in the union.
- Joint administration with DUP now very unlikely - SF would have to swallow a LOT of pride
- Direct rule with the prospect of the DUP having a significant input

What does Gerry say on the morning news - "it's up to the Taoiseach to put us first etc" or words to that effect. Well news for you Gerry, go sort out your own problems and take some responsibility for your decisions and mandate.

FrancieBrady · 09-06-2017 09:20AM

Thomas__ wrote: »

Pity the Shinners will not take their 7 seats in the Commons to defeat a Tory / DUP govt in the making. The only two parties in NI who won seats in the Commons are the most stubborn ones. I´m inclined to say "as usual", but one can´t help it, that´s the Northerners voting as they please.

I doubt they will sell out on a principle to be king makers for a parliament that will only last a while in all likelihood.

The tories wouldn't necessarily deal with SF anyhow, with others available to shore them up. Much like our own democratic stalwarts.

Zubeneschamali · 09-06-2017 09:20AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Wow. Could it get any worse?

What? This is classic British comedy!

Yes Minister would have thought this too farcical for TV, and the Tories do it for real!

Peregrinus · 09-06-2017 09:21AM

Thomas__ wrote: »

You don´t know what the circumstances will be in 2018/19 and what the result of the Brexit negotiation will be. The second Indy Ref is not off the table, it is still an Option and in case things deteriorate in the negotiations, this Option might become more attractive once again. If LAB, SNP and LibDem would form a coalition to avoid another Tory govt, well, then it would be a bit more difficult for her to call for a second IndyRef given the SNP is part of a UK govt. and works for either a better deal with the EU or even (in case Mr Corbyn would have second thoughts on Brexit) call for a second Brexit Ref based on the final offer from the EU.

Lab, SNP and LibDem combined are a long way off being able to form an alternative government or keep the Tories out. Between them they have only 309 seats, as against 316 for the Tories, for 326 for the Tories plus DUP. Plus, the Lib Dems are committed to not going into coalition with anybody; they tried it before and it didn't end well.

The only feasible government in the Parliament just elected is one centred on the Tories, and that's what we're going to have, at least in the first instance. It remains to be seen how long it will last; British political culture does not smile upon minority governments; without the comforting security of a single-party majority government they feel acute existential anxiety.

FrancieBrady · 09-06-2017 09:23AM

Right2Write wrote: »

Disastrous election for Northern Ireland and SF in particular, despite them increasing their seats:
- the moderate nationalist and unionist vote has been seriously eroded
- the DUP have the whiphand
- SF approach of hoping Brexit will force Scottish Ind seriously damaged with SNP taking a battering
- SF hoped for border poll result there to be seen - 11/7 sectarian headcount to stay in the union.
- Joint administration with DUP now very unlikely - SF would have to swallow a LOT of pride
- Direct rule with the prospect of the DUP having a significant input

What does Gerry say on the morning news - "it's up to the Taoiseach to put us first etc" or words to that effect. Well news for you Gerry, go sort out your own problems and take some responsibility for your decisions and mandate.

I suspect that part of the deal with the DUP will be 'swallow some grass and get the institutions up and running again'.

Would be ridiculous for the tories to be shored up by a party who wont allow democracy to happen at home.

devnull · 09-06-2017 09:29AM

DUP+Tory deal looking like confidence and supply.

2017 UK General Election - 8th June

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