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Rescue 116 Crash at Blackrock, Co Mayo(Mod note in post 1)

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 715 ✭✭✭Cianmcliam


    Looks like it has the same colour scheme and wedge shape along the edge (the guy with HLC on his vest has one hand on the wedge shape and is blocking the wider, blunt end).

    IRCG.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,455 ✭✭✭Gadgetman496


    This shot gives a much better view of the side of the ramp.


    850b9b23e9.jpg

    "Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    elastico wrote: »
    I checked marine traffic and its still there. Last speed 9knts.

    413594.jpg

    Just wondering why would the time stamps of when the position was received be different on the two MT-related images?

    The top left one shows time of last update as 00:46:06, while the one at the bottom right shows 00:45.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,924 ✭✭✭Nforce


    Definitely the rear ramp


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    JimWinters wrote: »
    Around 4pm on the 15th or 16th EI-ICG travelled from Blacksod directly to Blackrock where it either hovered for several minutes or landed. It returned to Blacksod and landed. Moments later there were pictures tweeted with a number of people removing a section of 116's tail from the ramp.

    This section could have been winched up but looking at the effort made to remove it, it's likely it was loaded on the ground. Can't publish the pic unfortunately sorry...

    It must have hovered as it cannot land there.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    Stheno wrote: »
    It's not yet three weeks spending some more time looking for the missing crew is imo worthwhile

    Many years ago three men were caught by a freak wave at the foot of the Slievemore mountain in Achill. That's the big black mountain that you sometimes see on the media reports based to the south of Blackrock. Their bodies were recovered across the other side of that bay to the northside of Blackrock a month later.
    There is hope that this crew will be found. I would think it's very premature to be cancelling a coordinated search of any kind yet. Yes the authorities may move away from the rock now and scale back on the extent of the resources being used, but there is every reason to believe these men will also be found.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Call me Al wrote: »
    Many years ago three men were caught by a freak wave at the foot of the Slievemore mountain in Achill. That's the big black mountain that you sometimes see on the media reports based to the south of Blackrock. Their bodies were recovered across the other side of that bay to the northside of Blackrock a month later.
    There is hope that this crew will be found. I would think it's very premature to be cancelling a coordinated search of any kind yet. Yes the authorities may move away from the rock now and scale back on the extent of the resources being used, but there is every reason to believe these men will also be found.

    Until today, a lot of faith and hope was being placed in the recovery activities at Blackrock that the two men would be found there. That hope is now dashed, and it must be assumed that their recovery is now at the mercy of the sea giving them up in due course. Shoreline searches are probably the only realistic way for this to happen. Unfortunately the length of shoreline involved is expanding daily and is likely to shortly extend into Scotland and the western Isles, assuming their immersion suits remain intact. As a result the intensity of the search efforts that do not involve local shoreline will need to be scaled back.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,011 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    I've just seen that screenshot :eek: for the first time.

    Just wondering, why are you asking if it's accurate?

    However, in all the stuff I've read since 14th March, I'm asking myself how I haven't seen this previously? Could it be that its authenticity is in question?

    I am not questioning it's authenticity but it certainly raises a lot of questions. Is it possible that speed was after hitting the rock?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Discodog wrote: »
    I am not questioning it's authenticity but it certainly raises a lot of questions. Is it possible that speed was after hitting the rock?

    I dunno. I'm wondering about the last update times as posted above. I dont see a normal AIS update being likely to have been made after the accident, do you?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,584 ✭✭✭✭Steve


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    Just wondering why would the time stamps of when the position was received be different on the two MT-related images?

    The top left one shows time of last update as 00:46:06, while the one at the bottom right shows 00:45.

    MT collect and log AIS data through an enthusiast network - a bit like liveatc. I wouldn't rely on timestamps to be accurate or the entries to be forensically valuable.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭elastico


    our opinion is that there were no mechanical anomalies and we must now focus on the operational side.

    Above quoted from Juergen whyte in the indo. tonight.

    CFIT beyond all reasonable doubt now.

    Classed as "wild speculation" by some around here just hours ago.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,584 ✭✭✭✭Steve


    elastico wrote: »
    our opinion is that there were no mechanical anomalies and we must now focus on the operational side.

    Above quoted from Juergen whyte in the indo. tonight.

    CFIT beyond all reasonable doubt now.

    Classed as "wild speculation" by some around here just hours ago.

    I disagree, they stated they haven't found anomalies, not that there aren't any.

    I don't think they could have fully analysed all of the data yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Steve wrote: »
    MT collect and log AIS data through an enthusiast network - a bit like liveatc. I wouldn't rely on timestamps to be accurate or the entries to be forensically valuable.

    2 images relating to the same data (ie time of last update) should present the same data though? Yes/No? If no, then how could the reported speed be relied upon either?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,011 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    I dunno. I'm wondering about the last update times as posted above. I dont see a normal AIS update being likely to have been made after the accident, do you?

    If a helicopter hit the rock but kept flying for a few moments it might coincide with an update. I am just trying to think of other explanations for that speed other than the obvious.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭elastico


    Steve wrote: »
    I disagree, they stated they haven't found anomalies, not that there aren't any.

    I don't think they could have fully analysed all of the data yet.

    The investigators have now said themselves they are focusing on the operational side, do you think they are mistaken?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 617 ✭✭✭Ferrari3600


    elastico wrote: »

    CFIT beyond all reasonable doubt now.

    That sounds like a strong statement.

    Can you explain on what basis you have arrived at it?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭elastico


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    2 images relating to the same data (ie time of last update) should present the same data though? Yes/No? If no, then how could the reported speed be relied upon either?

    The image I posted looks like a "collage" of a few bits. I lifted it from pprune.

    When I checked mT earlier the 9knots was still there so there it's not fake.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 617 ✭✭✭Ferrari3600


    elastico wrote: »
    The investigators have now said themselves they are focusing on the operational side, do you think they are mistaken?

    It's certainly potentially plausible that they are mistaken. IIRC, the Birmingham Six were falsely convicted on dodgy evidence.

    But, hey, you're the expert, yeh?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Steve wrote: »
    I disagree, they stated they haven't found anomalies, not that there aren't any.

    I don't think they could have fully analysed all of the data yet.

    As reported:

    We have recovered all of the data from the flight data recorder...it takes a significant amount of time to analyse. As we said our opinion is that there were no mechanical anomalies and we must now focus on the operational side. It's a long arduous investigation which will take several months," Mr Wyhte said.

    "There's a lot more evidence to gather and there's a lot of interviews to do...a lot of procedures and we must talk to the different players involved. That takes time; takes time to gather facts, time to analyse and time to come to a conclusion," the senior investigator added.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭elastico


    That sounds like a strong statement.

    Can you explain on what basis you have arrived at it?

    based on what Juergen whyte said. Operational rather than mechanical issues.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 617 ✭✭✭Ferrari3600


    elastico wrote: »
    The image I posted looks like a "collage" of a few bits. I lifted it from pprune.

    When I checked mT earlier the 9knots was still there so there it's not fake.

    In other words, if you had an enema they could fit you in a match-box. :rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭elastico


    It's certainly potentially plausible that they are mistaken. IIRC, the Birmingham Six were falsely convicted on dodgy evidence.

    But, hey, you're the expert, yeh?

    Juergen whyte is the expert not me.

    What are you talking about dodgy evidence for?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 617 ✭✭✭Ferrari3600


    elastico wrote: »
    based on what Juergen whyte said. Operational rather than mechanical issues.


    That wasn't the question that I asked.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,584 ✭✭✭✭Steve


    In other words, if you had an enema they could fit you in a match-box. :rolleyes:
    That wasn't the question that I asked.
    Banned for trolling.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,584 ✭✭✭✭Steve


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    2 images relating to the same data (ie time of last update) should present the same data though? Yes/No? If no, then how could the reported speed be relied upon either?

    Even now when I look it up on MT on iPad (paid version), I get this:

    413602.PNG

    413603.PNG

    I don't think the data is reliable for the purposes of this discussion.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    But they're showing 90 knots, not the 9 knots that was being referred to earlier.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,862 ✭✭✭✭January


    Ok so it wasn't mechanical does that include electrical or instrumental failure?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,584 ✭✭✭✭Steve


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    As reported:

    We have recovered all of the data from the flight data recorder...it takes a significant amount of time to analyse. As we said our opinion is that there were no mechanical anomalies and we must now focus on the operational side. It's a long arduous investigation which will take several months," Mr Wyhte said.

    "There's a lot more evidence to gather and there's a lot of interviews to do...a lot of procedures and we must talk to the different players involved. That takes time; takes time to gather facts, time to analyse and time to come to a conclusion," the senior investigator added.

    Which is kind of what I said only paraphrased for journalistic impact.

    I read that as "they have looked at the most obvious data and not found anything, they will now look at CVR as the next priority, if they find nothing there then they will go back to deeper FDR analysis"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭elastico


    Steve wrote: »
    Even now when I look it up on MT on iPad (paid version), I get this:

    413602.PNG

    413603.PNG

    I don't think the data is reliable for the purposes of this discussion.

    Yeah that's the version that was posted here back along. Threw everybody into assuming she hit the rock at substantial speed.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭elastico


    January wrote: »
    Ok so it wasn't mechanical does that include electrical or instrumental failure?

    Juergen whyte says operational issues is the focus so I assume electrical or instrumental are ruled out.


This discussion has been closed.
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