TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd · 09-03-2017 09:38AM

Guys, a little help if you can.

As most will know by now, I like to follow behavioural finance. I would like a little feedback - a mini survey so to speak.

Over the last 4-5 days I have noticed that of the 150-200 people I have spoken to, about 70% of them seem to be ranging from on edge to out and out aggressive (myself included). These are normally placid people, but any minor excuse, is taken to go on a rant.

Just wondering have any of you guys noticed this in your daily routine over the last couple of days . Sample size is too small to work off, but it has got my attention enough to follow up on it.

Thanks.

ixus · 09-03-2017 10:18AM

Weather has been brutal and it can be a mood variable.

Daylight Savings is also a mood variable. While the clock hasn't changed, it's pretty bright by 6am. The light wakes me up. Maybe people are getting an hour less sleep.

A specific sector i.e. construction or IT. Noticing a tightening of belts by management or difficulty getting paid?

For ever odd · 09-03-2017 10:42AM

I hear ya, and maybe it down to country specific moods. It has however put me thinking, is there something else? a quick glance of global headlines over the past week, seem to be reporting tensions, which is above the normal.

A cluster?

For ever odd · 09-03-2017 11:24AM

ixus wrote: »

Weather has been brutal and it can be a mood variable.

Daylight Savings is also a mood variable. While the clock hasn't changed, it's pretty bright by 6am. The light wakes me up. Maybe people are getting an hour less sleep.

A specific sector i.e. construction or IT. Noticing a tightening of belts by management or difficulty getting paid?

Off the bat, I wonder would post Christmas blues come into it?

People generally overspend at Christmas, extra one off yearly bills come In- life insurance, health insurance etc. People stay in, save for holidays etc. Work for two months see bank balance and get frustrated that they getting nowhere after two months of tight belt.

What people do next is the question?

dasdog · 09-03-2017 11:52PM

Definitely a seasonal aspect (housing markets). The first decent Spring day always strikes a subconscious message with me at least.

It's an interesting subject and although very simple, google trends or similar might be worth exploring.

For ever odd · 10-03-2017 08:04AM

Yep, nice day yesterday, and as the day progressed I got more and more "Ah feck it lifes to short" type comments - "do you want to go Cheltenham, are you coming with us for paddy's day" token efforts.

Arrow, was a big fan of the the "Paddy's day lift" on the S&P, . having seen it first hand, it lends credence to the trade.

I will try and refine the trade for next year, as I now know what to look for.

For ever odd · 14-03-2017 02:59PM

Bought the S&P @ 2366.5 will hold till Monday.
1% stop loss.
Switched off the news, this is purely a technical entry on the Paddy's days trade.

Maybe too early, but model says its a good entry.

dasdog · 15-03-2017 09:36PM

Exit polls have a poor showing for Geert Wilders in the Dutch elections. Coupled with the dovish hike in the US the Euro has pushed up through $1.072 resistance. $1.085 is the next big barrier with Le Pen standing in the way of any minor rally if it goes above that.

For ever odd · 16-03-2017 12:51AM

Thanks dasdog, I'll take your word on it ! Finished my 12 rounds for this quarter about a week ago... so on the unwind.

Time for fresh views to take it forward from here.

pumpkin4life · 16-03-2017 04:09PM

Whats the best platform for spread betting?

I'm on IG, but does DEGIRO do it as well?

For ever odd · 18-03-2017 10:12PM

For those of you who like stats (use as a guideline only), it might give a few ideas.

For ever odd · 19-03-2017 11:59PM

Originally Posted by For ever odd View Post
Kuroda is hinting at further rate cuts. Keep an eye on gold for clues, in particular 1232, a great level. Both should move in tandam, maybe hedge one off the other if in doubt. Yen 112.48 is my sticky point for the time being.

Markets are in balance now. #649

Nearly a year later, and we are near enough at the same levels again.... Its the trade that keeps on giving.
Easy enough to calculate movements from the mean.

For ever odd · 21-03-2017 12:42AM

For ever odd wrote: »

Bought the S&P @ 2366.5 will hold till Monday.
1% stop loss.
Switched off the news, this is purely a technical entry on the Paddy's days trade.

Maybe too early, but model says its a good entry.

Made a complete pigs ear of this trade. Got out with a grand total of 6 points. Not to get too bogged down with the would've could've should've; but the average positive expectancy of 1% was achievable.

Paid the price for not paying enough attention, luckily it was only pride that was damaged.

For ever odd · 23-03-2017 11:22PM

https://amplitude.com/blog/2016/04/13/data-driven-creativity/#more-2006

Found this interesting piece on data analysis (ok I know it's strictly not trade related), and how Netflix used data to its advantage to make a top show without even seeing the Script.

For ever odd · 24-03-2017 03:00PM

Possible inverse H&S on the hourly usd /jpy. Suggests. 112.00 if it breaks.

evolving_doors · 25-03-2017 10:35AM

For ever odd wrote: »

https://amplitude.com/blog/2016/04/13/data-driven-creativity/#more-2006

Found this interesting piece on data analysis (ok I know it's strictly not trade related), and how Netflix used data to its advantage to make a top show without even seeing the Script.

That's great... going to show it to my maths class. What's the point of statistics .. they ask.

brady23 · 30-03-2017 04:59AM

Could some posters suggest the best sources of literature to gain both a better fundamental understanding of historical markets trends and the various types of securities, bonds, options etc available.

I have had a subscription to WSJ and The Economist for a while now and reading more and more but simply jumping back and forth to investopedia if there is a new concept. Plus I'm finding alot of the information pretty worthless.

Is there any other places for some technical data and in depth analysis? Thanks

brady23 · 30-03-2017 04:59AM

Could some posters suggest the best sources of literature to gain both a better fundamental understanding of historical markets trends and the various types of securities, bonds, options etc available.

I have had a subscription to WSJ and The Economist for a while now and reading more and more but simply jumping back and forth to investopedia if there is a new concept. Plus I'm finding alot of the information pretty worthless.

Is there any other places for some technical data and in depth analysis?

ixus · 30-03-2017 07:56AM

Options,Futures and other Derivatives John C Hull.

Commodity Traders Almanac.

There is a link to a list of books in the general questions pinned at top of forum i think.

For ever odd · 30-03-2017 09:54AM

I found this site useful when I was starting out. It's a free resource for the basics.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/countries

dasdog · 30-03-2017 08:59PM

For ever odd wrote: »

Possible inverse H&S on the hourly usd /jpy. Suggests. 112.00 if it breaks.

Looked a long way off on Monday morning but sentiment has clearly changed. 111.6 was the line I was watching for this evening.

For ever odd · 31-03-2017 11:13AM

dasdog wrote: »

Looked a long way off on Monday morning but sentiment has clearly changed. 111.6 was the line I was watching for this evening.

That idea died in the early hours of Monday morning when it broke out of the range.

Cable has been floating between 124 and 125 since Wednesday. If 124 breaks it would open the door to 122.

Simple set up with a nice risk/reward ratio. I'll give it till Wednesday close.

dasdog · 31-03-2017 08:36PM

For ever odd wrote: »

That idea died in the early hours of Monday morning when it broke out of the range.

Cable has been floating between 124 and 125 since Wednesday. If 124 breaks it would open the door to 122.

Simple set up with a nice risk/reward ratio. I'll give it till Wednesday close.

Well that breakout didn't last very long. I'm moving stops slightly above break even when a gap opens so no harm done, just a bad reading.

Staying well away from all things GBP but maybe give it an extra day as Xi Jinping and Donald meet on Thursday.

brady23 · 31-03-2017 09:15PM

I know from reading that the housing market doesn't have much of a correlation to the stock market so in the event of a dip in the housing market, what stocks, commodities etc would historically tend to have done well?

For ever odd · 01-04-2017 10:03AM

dasdog wrote: »

Well that breakout didn't last very long. I'm moving stops slightly above break even when a gap opens so no harm done, just a bad reading.

Staying well away from all things GBP but maybe give it an extra day as Xi Jinping and Donald meet on Thursday.

Yes, a lot of the fx pairs have been whipsawed around the place of late, only small 1-2% moves, but its has me wondering if this is the start of more volatile moves.

On the. Cable short positioninng is at high levels, so I instinctively want to be long. I am waiting for that pullback to get in. Short term I think fresh longs are going to get squeezed.

1.2566 is where I'll start to short from.

Good trade on Eur 1.085

For ever odd · 01-04-2017 10:16AM

brady23 wrote: »

I know from reading that the housing market doesn't have much of a correlation to the stock market so in the event of a dip in the housing market, what stocks, commodities etc would historically tend to have done well?

Are you looking at a global housing market dip or one country in particular?

brady23 · 02-04-2017 01:29AM

Well I would be interested from a global standpoint, are there some areas of value to invest in when house prices drop and in turn the stock market suffers.

I am curious about New Zealand where I'm currently living. Their primary exports are dairy, meat, wool. I'm wondering would some investments in futures be worth while.

People I live with are in the housing department at the council/planning level and I have quite a few friends in construction.
The current house prices are not sustainable imo.

Similar population and average income to Dublin but people driving around in Ferraris and Lamborghinis which I assume is as a result of favourable finance and lots of positive equity.

Lots of Asian investors driving up house prices plus Fletcher Buildings which is the 3rd biggest company on NZX lost over 10% off its stock price a week or so ago.

NZ was relatively unaffected by the financial crisis but given potential issues with the transatlantic trade agreement too I would be curious if they're headed for a mini bubble especially in Auckland where average house price is 1m NZD so 670k euros.

Just some thoughts of people with more experience would be interesting

For ever odd · 02-04-2017 10:06PM

It will come down to money flows.

A few simple questions I would be asking

Is the economy as a whole strong enough to withstand a housing market dip/collapse?
Will your mates stay there if it goes bad, will you stay?
What is causing these inflated prices?
Are other industries able to survive if labour force immigrate, if so which ones?
How would this effect the currency?
How would it effect interest rates and the bond market?

If you start to think about these questions you should start formulating a picture of where the money will go.

For ever odd · 05-04-2017 11:17PM

For ever odd wrote: »

Cable has been floating between 124 and 125 since Wednesday. If 124 breaks it would open the door to 122.

Simple set up with a nice risk/reward ratio. I'll give it till Wednesday close.

Didn't work out in the allocated time I gave it. Be easy enough to know where to get in, if opportunity arises. Same for Usd/Jpy.
Gbp/Jpy for those that are able to handle action.

For ever odd · 09-04-2017 08:09PM

brady23 wrote: »

Well I would be interested from a global standpoint, are there some areas of value to invest in when house prices drop and in turn the stock market suffers.

I am curious about New Zealand where I'm currently living. Their primary exports are dairy, meat, wool. I'm wondering would some investments in futures be worth while.

People I live with are in the housing department at the council/planning level and I have quite a few friends in construction.
The current house prices are not sustainable imo.

Similar population and average income to Dublin but people driving around in Ferraris and Lamborghinis which I assume is as a result of favourable finance and lots of positive equity.

Lots of Asian investors driving up house prices plus Fletcher Buildings which is the 3rd biggest company on NZX lost over 10% off its stock price a week or so ago.

NZ was relatively unaffected by the financial crisis but given potential issues with the transatlantic trade agreement too I would be curious if they're headed for a mini bubble especially in Auckland where average house price is 1m NZD so 670k euros.

Just some thoughts of people with more experience would be interesting

brady23, Et Al.

Ask and you shall receive...

https://macro-man.blogspot.ie/2017/04/audnzd-how-much-can-it-run.html?m=1#comment-form

Thanks.

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