Are we really back to this sh*t again?

xckjoo · 15-02-2017 02:07PM

sbsquarepants wrote: »

The person who sold the house and got 300k would say it was the value of 200k which was wrong - and what's more they'd have physical proof that it was wrong in the form of cold hard cash.

The next sale is a separate issue - you could get 200, you could get 400. Depends on the people involved in that transaction and their specific circumstances, if the new buyer values the place differently, the value will be different.
But the fact remains that at the only time you have actual physical data for - the value was 300k.

Now I'm not an idiot - I get the point that if you're paying double what the house next door is worth, you'd want to be questioning what you're doing. But the fact remains - if you (for whatever reason) are both willing and able to do so (pay double next doors price) then that's what the place is worth right there and then - simply by virtue of the fact that you are willing and able to buy it at that price.

Trust me, if you were selling the place, you'd agree!

Exactly. At that moment in time the value, price and worth are all the same. But that's not true at any other moment in time for our theoretical house.

We're all going to take the most money we can for the place, that's not in dispute. But that's also the problem. The number of properties is limited so people push up their offers to outdo everybody else that's bidding. That puts them in a lifetimes worth of debt and increases the risk of defaulting. Saying that the house is "worth whatever someone will pay" is only true at the moment in time that it is sold. As soon as the next economic downturn happens and large numbers of people lose their jobs, the defaults start happening and the banks are left with massive debts (which we have to pay for apparently).

Saying that value and price are the same puts you in the mind-frame that the price is acceptable, the market is acceptable and the lifetime of debt is acceptable.

SnakePlissken · 15-02-2017 05:42PM

darkpagandeath wrote: »

Where did I say Mistakes ?

If something is not planned, the consequence to same is called...?

whiskeyman · 15-02-2017 05:45PM

SnakePlissken wrote: »

If something is not planned, the consequence to same is called...?

Unexpected...

whisky_galore · 15-02-2017 05:46PM

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/homeowner-renting-16-beds-in-three-rooms-for-up-to-445-each-1.2975618

Someone taking clear advantage of the current housing crisis....

sbsquarepants · 15-02-2017 06:13PM

xckjoo wrote: »

Saying that value and price are the same puts you in the mind-frame that the price is acceptable, the market is acceptable and the lifetime of debt is acceptable.

What is the alternative though?

If the price is unacceptable, don't pay it.
But that has knock on consequences which may be even worse, so a lot of times people are "choosing" the lesser of two evils.

So saying it's viewing a life time of debt as acceptable is not quite right - unavoidable would be a better description!

xckjoo · 15-02-2017 06:50PM

sbsquarepants wrote: »

What is the alternative though?

If the price is unacceptable, don't pay it.
But that has knock on consequences which may be even worse, so a lot of times people are "choosing" the lesser of two evils.

So saying it's viewing a life time of debt as acceptable is not quite right - unavoidable would be a better description!

The problem is how the market is structured and allowed to operate. It'll take government regulations to change how things are, because as you pointed out, sellers will always try and maximise the money they get. There doesn't seem to be much appetite for actual reform from the government though. Probably a case of not wanting to lose the income they currently get from it combined with not wanting to be the ones to make things worse.

This is kinda why I thought it was important to push the point about price, value, etc. If we just accept it as the way things are then it's not going to change.

fiachr_a · 15-02-2017 08:56PM

whisky_galore wrote: »

Someone taking clear advantage of the current housing crisis....

Vulture funds.

whisky_galore · 15-02-2017 08:59PM

fiachr_a wrote: »

Vulture funds.

Same difference...it's all fingers in a greasy till...

donegaLroad · 15-02-2017 09:01PM

unless you are paying for the house with cash on the day of purchasing, you are not buying the house for €450,000.

If you stay in the house for the term of the mortgage, you will be paying approx €730,000 over 30 years in total.

Considering you pay 10% deposit, then you borrow €400,000 @ 4% over 30 years, the total amount will be almost double after you finish paying.

The big question is, what will the house be worth after you pay that much for it, and what condition will it be in after 30 years.... and will the next buyers be paying in excess of €750,000 for it? How long will this cycle continue?

Glenster · 16-02-2017 02:40AM

xckjoo wrote: »

The problem is how the market is structured and allowed to operate. It'll take government regulations to change how things are, because as you pointed out, sellers will always try and maximise the money they get. There doesn't seem to be much appetite for actual reform from the government though. Probably a case of not wanting to lose the income they currently get from it combined with not wanting to be the ones to make things worse.

This is kinda why I thought it was important to push the point about price, value, etc. If we just accept it as the way things are then it's not going to change.

Making a distinction between value and price is pointless as value is a judgement that a person makes at a point in time, factoring in personal information that cant be quantified.

That is why you can estimate the value of something but cannot set the value of something definitively.

To say that an object has a single value to all people in all circumstances at a point in time is talking sh*t. All you can say is that "I reckon the value of this house to me/the man on the street/my ma is X".

To which I might say "Pay that amount then and prove it, otherwise f*ck off and stop talking ****"

J Mysterio · 16-02-2017 02:59AM

Yourself isit wrote: »

I agree. The banks are not lending hand over fist like they used to. Of course the new government interference doesnt help.

This reminds me of what an economist once said about London property prices. There are two protential catastrophes, either London is a bubble and there will be a big crash or it isn't a bubble and the future generations will be screwed.

Need to build houses, get the price down. There are too few, so prices are too high.

xckjoo · 16-02-2017 10:02AM

Glenster wrote: »

Making a distinction between value and price is pointless as value is a judgement that a person makes at a point in time, factoring in personal information that cant be quantified.

That is why you can estimate the value of something but cannot set the value of something definitively.

To say that an object has a single value to all people in all circumstances at a point in time is talking sh*t. All you can say is that "I reckon the value of this house to me/the man on the street/my ma is X".

To which I might say "Pay that amount then and prove it, otherwise f*ck off and stop talking ****"

.....

Not going down this road again. Read some of the previous pages.

sbsquarepants · 16-02-2017 11:02AM

donegaLroad wrote: »

unless you are paying for the house with cash on the day of purchasing, you are not buying the house for €450,000.

If you stay in the house for the term of the mortgage, you will be paying approx €730,000 over 30 years in total.

Considering you pay 10% deposit, then you borrow €400,000 @ 4% over 30 years, the total amount will be almost double after you finish paying.

The big question is, what will the house be worth after you pay that much for it, and what condition will it be in after 30 years.... and will the next buyers be paying in excess of €750,000 for it? How long will this cycle continue?

In Japan (possibly elsewhere too) they do 40 or 50 year multi generational mortgages. It's nothing short of mental!

re_shaft · 16-02-2017 11:06AM

whisky_galore wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/homeowner-renting-16-beds-in-three-rooms-for-up-to-445-each-1.2975618

Someone taking clear advantage of the current housing crisis....

Bloody hell.

16 young women have been living in three bedrooms.
....
Assuming 90 per cent occupancy throughout the year, the bunk beds would bring in more than €6,000 a month, or more than €72,000 a year.
....
She says she was allowed to wash one load of laundry a week, and showers were rationed.
She got half a shelf in a fridge and a small shelf space in the kitchen.
....
The former tenant, who says she was given two weeks’ notice to leave after she asked Mr McElwee to buy a frying pan so she could cook a steak, sought advice from Citizens Information.

Does anyone know what documentaries the owner Eamon McElwee has actually made? And does anyone know any reasons why I shouldn't think he's a cNut?

suicide_circus · 16-02-2017 11:10AM

re_shaft wrote: »

Bloody hell.

Does anyone know what documentaries the owner Eamon McElwee has actually made? And does anyone know any reasons why I shouldn't think he's a cNut?

Slumlord. Also enjoying artist tax exemption no doubt.

sbsquarepants · 16-02-2017 11:11AM

Glenster wrote: »

Making a distinction between value and price is pointless as value is a judgement that a person makes at a point in time, factoring in personal information that cant be quantified.

That is why you can estimate the value of something but cannot set the value of something definitively.

To say that an object has a single value to all people in all circumstances at a point in time is talking sh*t. All you can say is that "I reckon the value of this house to me/the man on the street/my ma is X".

To which I might say "Pay that amount then and prove it, otherwise f*ck off and stop talking ****"

I think people have an inbuilt "feeling" that stuff has a value - it's just a vague notion that we don't really think about and can't explain when pressed because it's not based on anything physical. It's like a type of cognitive dissonance, you feel something is the case but what you see doesn't quite agree with that feeling, so instead of changing what you think, you bend the facts to suit your feeling. We're all guilty of it at times.

One mans bargain is another mans daylight robbery. It's all subjective. People can and do use all sorts of tools to try and quantify and predict these things - but it's all just theoretical - there is only one acid test, turn it into cash and only then do you know what it's "really" worth.

As the saying goes - in theory there is no difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is.

Whatever theory you use to "value" whatever your selling is just a theory until you verify it in practice.

PhoenixParker · 16-02-2017 12:01PM

I wasn't worried until I read this line:

"It is a good opportunity for an investment," she said.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/hopefuls-queue-overnight-to-get-a-foot-in-the-door-35455683.html

Until now all the queues I've heard of and all the people I've head of in them have been families looking to buy a house they can live in for a long time. I thought this one off landlord investment ****e had been knocked on the head.

jimgoose · 16-02-2017 12:10PM

"MONORAIL!!" :pac:

jacksie66 · 16-02-2017 12:12PM

This post has been deleted.

re_shaft · 16-02-2017 12:25PM

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Until now all the queues I've heard of and all the people I've head of in them have been families looking to buy a house they can live in for a long time. I thought this one off landlord investment ****e had been knocked on the head.

Don't hate the player... If I had extra cash, and given the way things are in Dublin, I could easily see buying a place as an investment. (With all the caveats about good yield, decent priced place etc. etc.). Why wouldn't you? Interest rates are awful in the banks, Dublin is choc-a-bloc with no sign of the Government doing anything about it, so why not?

Note: I am never going to be in the position to do so.

Wanderer78 · 16-02-2017 12:32PM

re_shaft wrote: »

Don't hate the player... If I had extra cash, and given the way things are in Dublin, I could easily see buying a place as an investment. (With all the caveats about good yield, decent priced place etc. etc.). Why wouldn't you? Interest rates are awful in the banks, Dublin is choc-a-bloc with no sign of the Government doing anything about it, so why not?

Note: I am never going to be in the position to do so.

i wouldnt actually, for various different reasons, one being, it truly doesnt help society as a whole

sbsquarepants · 16-02-2017 12:42PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i wouldnt actually, for various different reasons, one being, it truly doesnt help society as a whole

How altruistic of you:rolleyes:

I have to admit, I sometimes do thing solely for my own benefit, or for my family. I feel as if it's asking too much of me to be responsible for the wellbeing of society!

jimgoose · 16-02-2017 12:43PM

sbsquarepants wrote: »

How altruistic of you:rolleyes:

I have to admit, I sometimes do thing solely for my own benefit, or for my family. I feel as if it's asking too much of me to be responsible for the wellbeing of society!

You monster! Even I turn on the water for the Wretched once a month or so.

re_shaft · 16-02-2017 12:45PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i wouldnt actually, for various different reasons, one being, it truly doesnt help society as a whole

It's an apartment in Dublin that I would be letting out. We're not talking about buying a shipment of drugs and weapons with my savings.

Wanderer78 · 16-02-2017 12:51PM

sbsquarepants wrote: »

How altruistic of you:rolleyes:

I have to admit, I sometimes do thing solely for my own benefit, or for my family. I feel as if it's asking too much of me to be responsible for the wellbeing of society!

its actually not just being altruistic, its called being human and having an understanding of the needs of all humans.

i think noam chomskys use of the term 'atomisation' is perfect for this, we have been made beleive that acting in our own self interest is best for society as a whole, but in fact its the opposite. if we continue to think and bahve like this, we will continue to accelerate the demise of our planet and species.

i will agree with you that it is mainly the fault of our complex economic and financial systems that many behave in this manner, and we dont really know how to change this, but first we have to change the way we think and behave, in order to be able to change these system. sadly i think we re gonna have to endure a few more serious financial/economic crisis and possible a major war or two before that process begins.

again, i agree with chomsky, in that our economic and financial systems cause 'externalities' that have the potential to collapse our socioeconomic systems.

jimgoose · 16-02-2017 12:54PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its actually not just being altruistic, its called being human and having an understanding of the needs of all humans.

i think noam chomskys use of the term 'atomisation' is perfect for this...

I think that's just a restatement of the notion of the Tragedy of the Commons.

Wanderer78 · 16-02-2017 12:56PM

jimgoose wrote: »

I think that's just a restatement of the notion of the Tragedy of the Commons.

i do agree with those that say, we re currently watching the failure of fundamental things such as neoliberlism and (not so) free market economics in regarding these issues. the only problem is, nobody really knows what to do next.

lawred2 · 16-02-2017 12:58PM

PhoenixParker wrote: »

I wasn't worried until I read this line:

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/hopefuls-queue-overnight-to-get-a-foot-in-the-door-35455683.html

Until now all the queues I've heard of and all the people I've head of in them have been families looking to buy a house they can live in for a long time. I thought this one off landlord investment ****e had been knocked on the head.

who do you think provides rental accommodation? The magic pixies?

jimgoose · 16-02-2017 12:58PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i do agree with those that say, we re currently watching the failure of fundamental things such as neoliberlism and (not so) free market economics in regarding these issues. the only problem is, nobody really knows what to do next.

I certainly don't. Is there anything at all to be said for donning a mohawk and marauding up-and-down the country with motorbikes and shotguns??

whisky_galore · 16-02-2017 12:59PM

re_shaft wrote: »

Bloody hell.

Does anyone know what documentaries the owner Eamon McElwee has actually made? And does anyone know any reasons why I shouldn't think he's a cNut?

Here we go...http://www.kidgloves.ie/ebiography.htm

LOL at his Linked in page..

Causes Eamon cares about:
Civil Rights and Social Action
Economic Empowerment
Human Rights
Poverty Alleviation

Are we really back to this sh*t again?

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