UK Votes to leave EU

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Didn't the Faroe islands leave for pretty much the same reason? I've never really taken an interest in fishing rights, but the CFP seems to be pretty much despised by any one in the industry.

It's unpopular in the industry because it has seriously cut back the amount of fish they are allowed to catch.

But that's a feature, not a bug. Fish stocks declined dramatically in the decades before the CFP was introduced, due to fairly massive overfishing. The catch limits were painful, but they have worked as intended; stocks have stabilised, and even modestly increased, since the CFP was introduced.

The effect of Brexit on the UK fishing industry is unclear. While in principle the UK will have its own fishing grounds which they can regulate how they like, they can't avoid the reality that, from a haddock's point of view, the North Sea is just one big undivided area. Mackerel, herring and cod are all highly mobile; British fishing grounds are right next to Norwegian, German, Danish, Dutch, Belgian and French fishing grounds, and they are all fishing from the same fish stocks. So, unless it's to be open season for one and all until the stocks are completely fished out, they are still going to have to agree with one another on fisheries policy. Norway already does this from outside the EU; they UK has no real option but to do the same. And there's a fairly widespread consensus that the present catch levels are about right, in terms of sustainability.

Other relevant points: The UK fishing fleet fishes extensively in non-UK waters, and lands about 25% of its catch at non-UK ports. It would like to be able to keep doing this, but obviously that will require a quid-pro-quo for the EU-27 fleet. Plus, much of the catch landed in the UK is of fish types that British people don't like to eat; it gets exported to other EU countries (80% is exported, in fact). And much of the fish types that British people do like to eat are imported from other EU countries. So, unless the national palate can be reeducated fairly radically, UK fishermen quite like the free movement of fish and fishing vessels.

All in all, when Brexit happens and the UK has to renegotiate the fishing arrangements that apply to British waters, the likelihood is that they're going to want to reinvent the wheel, more or less; to negotiate an arrangement with the EU that looks a lot like the present Common Fisheries Policy. Which is not that surprising, when you think about it, since the UK was one of the countries that negotiated the present Common Fisheries Policy.

A reinvented wheel is rarely completely circular, so there will probably be some changes around the margins. But those changes won't necessarily favour the UK; other countries will bring their own agendas to the discussions, and there'll be some horsetrading. But it's probably telling that the main industry representative bodies and organisations in the UK were basically neutral about Brexit.