Seismic Activity at San Andreas Fault.

Overheal · 01-10-2016 07:13AM #1

http://gizmodo.com/massive-earthquake-on-the-san-andreas-fault-is-disturbi-1787279784

The only third swarm of earthquakes of this kind (140+ since Monday) since seismology started in the 30s, and nothing of this magnitude. The USGS is pinning the chance of the San Andreas Fault shifting - causing The Big One - is as high as 1/100 or as low as 1/3000 for the next month given the current status.

Should the Big One hit, it won’t be pretty. Models predict a quake across the southern half of California with a magnitude around 7.8. Such a quake would cause an estimated 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and over $200 billion in damage.

But as the USGS researchers point out, this is far from an inevitability. The swarm under the Salton Sea may subside, or fail to influence the gigantic fault nearby. Moreover, the estimates provided by the scientists are exactly that—estimates. The science of earthquake prediction is still very much in its infancy, and these models are very likely crunching away with insufficient data. No need to panic just yet.

Thought you ought to know.

doubledown · 01-10-2016 07:32AM

Otisburg?

Cookie_Monster · 01-10-2016 07:40AM

I'm sure Trump will find a way to blame it on the Mexicans.

kneemos · 01-10-2016 07:57AM

I wouldn't even fall out of bed for less than a 4.7.

The flying mouse · 01-10-2016 08:01AM

A whole lot a shaking going on...

glenq · 01-10-2016 08:11AM

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

I'm sure Trump will find a way to blame it on the Mexicans.

He's gonna fill in the fault with cement, and get the Mexicans to do it, and he's gonna make the seismologists pay for it.

gifted · 01-10-2016 08:30AM

I've just walked away from seismic pooh if that counts....

kneemos · 01-10-2016 08:58AM

The Yosemite Park Caldera could be the real game changer.Given how they coped in New Orleans I wouldn't like to be anywhere near when either of them pop.

suicide_circus · 01-10-2016 09:44AM

Keep America Earthquake-free. Vote Trump.

GLaDOS · 01-10-2016 09:58AM

Don't be silly OP, GTA: San Andreas is a video game :rolleyes:

Samaris · 01-10-2016 10:19AM

kneemos wrote: »

The Yosemite Park Caldera could be the real game changer.Given how they coped in New Orleans I wouldn't like to be anywhere near when either of them pop.

-Would- be a game-changer. Yosemite popping would be extremely messy and likely destroy most of the northern United States. The San Andreas Big One wouldn't be fun to live through, but at its absolute worst, it wouldn't affect more than a state (roughly). Yosemite is orders of magnitude bigger in terms of potential disaster.

thomil · 01-10-2016 10:28AM

I think you mean Yellowstone. Yosemite has been geologically dead for millions of years, and has mostly been sculpted by glacial erosion, not volcanic activity. Yellowstone, on the other hand, is pretty alive, and a real headache.

whiskeyman · 01-10-2016 10:32AM

With so many tech firms based there, I wonder what sort of impact 'the big one' would have on the global economy when it happens

Samaris · 01-10-2016 11:29AM

thomil wrote: »

I think you mean Yellowstone. Yosemite has been geologically dead for millions of years, and has mostly been sculpted by glacial erosion, not volcanic activity. Yellowstone, on the other hand, is pretty alive, and a real headache.

Derp, yes. I knew there was something wrong with that while I was responding to it.

PucaMama · 01-10-2016 11:32AM

Would Yellowstone not affect us too? I would have thought people would be far more worried about Yellowstone than San Andreas

DominoDub · 01-10-2016 11:35AM

whiskeyman wrote: »

With so many tech firms based there, I wonder what sort of impact 'the big one' would have on the global economy when it happens

The reason why Ireland is the perfect location for their Datacenters (no earthquakes, and big changes in weather temp) ...eg .Microsoft , Amazon, Facebook and with Apple building one in the west.

Cool_CM · 01-10-2016 11:39AM

whiskeyman wrote: »

With so many tech firms based there, I wonder what sort of impact 'the big one' would have on the global economy when it happens

Don't worry, James Bond will save them.

Cianmcliam · 01-10-2016 11:40AM

PucaMama wrote: »

Would Yellowstone not affect us too? I would have thought people would be far more worried about Yellowstone than San Andreas

Yep, crop failure, disease, violent upheavals, erratic internet connections.

Gatling · 01-10-2016 11:42AM

Better call the Rock

Unearthly · 01-10-2016 11:43AM

Run of the mill blockbuster with Dwayne The Rock Johnson 4/10

PucaMama · 01-10-2016 11:44AM

Cianmcliam wrote: »

PucaMama wrote: »

Would Yellowstone not affect us too? I would have thought people would be far more worried about Yellowstone than San Andreas

Yep, crop failure, disease, violent upheavals, erratic internet connections.

I could deal with cannibalism (from crop failure) and war ....but erratic internet connection!!!

The Backwards Man · 01-10-2016 11:53AM

On the plus side, you would be able to eat your pic-a-nic in relative peace.

PucaMama · 01-10-2016 01:03PM

San Andreas is on sky action right now op

Donald Trump · 01-10-2016 01:17PM

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

I'm sure Trump will find a way to blame it on the Mexicans.

It was the feckin rapey little Mexican banditos.

Little CuChulainn · 01-10-2016 02:18PM

Models predict a quake across the southern half of California with a magnitude around 7.8.

Sure what would models know about it? I'd prefer a more qualified opinion.

rossie1977 · 01-10-2016 02:29PM

Have seismologists ever correctly predicted a big earthquake before it happened?

01-10-2016 03:07PM

There's a State-wide alert in force in California, something they don't issue lightly.

01-10-2016 03:36PM

It's always someone's fault, isn't it? No personal responsibility any more.

*rabble rabble*

Samaris · 01-10-2016 03:57PM

PucaMama wrote: »

Would Yellowstone not affect us too? I would have thought people would be far more worried about Yellowstone than San Andreas

Yellowstone "wins" hands-down; if the cauldara erupted violently, it would basically destroy the United States and Canada. Physically, it would take out everything from Washington to Kansas, and it would effectually ruin from the midlands to states on the eastern seaboard. After that, the ash cloud would cover the northern hemisphere and t could be a decade without summers, with consequent catastrophes to food production. But it's not that likely to happen. Nothing you can do to prepare for it anyway bar move to New Zealand.

The faultline shifting is something that people absolutely know is going to happen and keep getting warnings about from it cracking every so often. At some point it won't just grind a bit, it will snap to release the building pressure and cause a catastrophe in San Fransisco amongst other cities. But while it would cause a lot of harm, it wouldn't destroy the world.

The big one -is- going to happen, and very likely in the next hundred years, Yellowstone is an extinction event, but may never happen.

Pherekydes · 01-10-2016 04:21PM

10.0 earthquake is on Syfy right now. :pac:

Y'all should watch it.

Autonomous Cowherd · 01-10-2016 05:55PM

It would (will?) be pretty shocking to wake up some morning and hear there has been a massive earthquake in California.

Seismic Activity at San Andreas Fault.

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