TRADER'S CORNER

BrokenArrows · 20-09-2016 03:53PM

chompdown wrote: »

You were saying earlier that you should stay away from trading oil so maybe best to avoid?

I dont intend on trading it directory. But decisions made by the OPEC have knock on effects to the profits of other industries.

ixus · 20-09-2016 04:48PM

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Is there any reliable website which keeps track of upcoming OPEC events and scheduled announcements?

The opec website maybe?!

#OOTT also a good oil stream on twitter

ftse100 · 21-09-2016 01:09PM

Anybody Trading on the Back of the Fed Decision later?

For ever odd · 21-09-2016 01:34PM

ftse100 wrote: »

Anybody Trading on the Back of the Fed Decision later?

Nah, as much as love action, I'm gonna sit this one out.

The simple way I'm looking at it is...

A) They don't raise and hint at a hike in December.

They raise rates.
C) They don't raise and no indication of hike in December.

The next big focus after this, is the US election, so B or C would give a clear direction to the market regardless of whom wins.

dasdog · 21-09-2016 02:40PM

Nothing on the table and no intentions to get involved right now. Not the most endearing comment from Saxo...

We would like for Fed chair Janet Yellen, supposedly a labour economist concerned with inequality, to admit today that the Fed has been the chief driver of inequality by pumping asset markets while the real economy languishes, and that the Fed needs to hike rates to counter the risks to financial stability, not because of anything to do with the real economy. ZIRP and QE are driving inequality and the very real possibility of a Donald Trump presidency. But don’t expect the academics at the Fed to admit that they get this just yet.

For ever odd · 22-09-2016 02:12PM

ixus wrote: »

Yes. And that's exactly what happened last time. The market got so ahead of itself the week before that we sold off from the Monday and got smashed when he announced the package.

Vivid memories of the price action.

I'll be more than happy to trade a repeat of it.

With the FED giving an "A" last night, it looks like you're not the only one to follow last year's form.

Do you think it can play out similar enough? (Barring black Swan event of course).

drunkmonkey · 22-09-2016 11:52PM

Yahoo has to be worth a short tomorrow....

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/22/technology/yahoo-data-breach/

For ever odd · 23-09-2016 06:11AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Yahoo has to be worth a short tomorrow....

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/22/technology/yahoo-data-breach/

Imagine the carnage If it was Facebook or Twitter and the likes...

People will probably go out and buy the likes of mcafee, Norton, Bullguard and the likes, instead of the free ones they downloaded. Make em feel safer..

For ever odd · 26-09-2016 08:46PM

For ever odd wrote: »

COPPER.

Confined to wedge pattern on weekly chart since September last year, it is approaching the lower boundary, with not much room left to move either way.

Possible breakout on the cards, which other asset classes tend to follow.

Still in wedge Pattern, at the upper boundary this time. I have to take a short here, right or wrong I have to remain true to my analysis. Stop behind second last swing high.

Some amount of FED speakers this week, including Yellen.
Draghi and kuroda speaking also.

OPEC meeting.

Deutsche Bank is tanking.

This week is a scalpers paradise.

EDIT: First debate between Trump and Clinton, winner takes all, in my view.

For ever odd · 28-09-2016 11:10PM

From February

For ever odd wrote: »

Today was a non event in the oil meeting between Russia, Saudi and Venezuela OPEC . A production freeze at January levels 32.5/33 MILLION BOPD(which is substantial) is hardly a problem solving solution.
It may in fact, just be a feeler, to see how other oil producing nations react to the news.
A baby step in the long road to oil price recovery.... who knows, but in a standoff, whom ever moves first is usually the loser.

Anyone think the US Frackers/big oil or Canada will freeze production? Can't see it happening just yet.

el diablo · 29-09-2016 03:38AM

For ever odd wrote: »

From February

Anyone think the US Frackers/big oil or Canada will freeze production? Can't see it happening just yet.

Definitely can't see the big Canadian oil patch companies freezing production. They're producing more than ever right now.

ixus · 29-09-2016 07:22AM

Opec know all this. Two/three ways to look at it.

1. There has been a huge shift in policy by Saudi. They have given up on flooding the market to knock weaker out. They have also patched up relations (for now) with Iran.

2. Supply right now is high. If demand remains the same and they stick to this agreement, with Russia, global imbalances will realign at a more rapid pace over next 12 months.

3. Is it buy the rumour, sell the news? I'm not so sure. Look how markets rallied into previous freeze talks. That was with Venezuala etc making all the noise. We now have the big guns making noise and taking action. If, and a big if, they manage to co-operate, a lot of punters will be caught offside and there will be a reluctance to take big short positions from here through to opec on Nov 30th for fear Saudi double down.

There is an air of disbelief amongst Traders and journos that this has happened. There hasn't been a cut since 2008. A lot of people may not have seen this before.

For ever odd · 29-09-2016 09:51AM

ixus wrote: »

Opec know all this. Two/three ways to look at it.

1. There has been a huge shift in policy by Saudi. They have given up on flooding the market to knock weaker out. They have also patched up relations (for now) with Iran.

2. Supply right now is high. If demand remains the same and they stick to this agreement, with Russia, global imbalances will realign at a more rapid pace over next 12 months.

3. Is it buy the rumour, sell the news? I'm not so sure. Look how markets rallied into previous freeze talks. That was with Venezuala etc making all the noise. We now have the big guns making noise and taking action. If, and a big if, they manage to co-operate, a lot of punters will be caught offside and there will be a reluctance to take big short positions from here through to opec onNov 30th for fear Saudi double down.

There is an air of disbelief amongst Traders and journos that this has happened. There hasn't been a cut since 2008. A lot of people may not have seen this before.

Yes, that's what I'm thinking.
They have clearly giving up the power position and No need for others to rush too their aid, maybe forcing that bigger cut.

In my eyes - 'You broke it, You fix it' will be the theme going forward.

For ever odd · 29-09-2016 11:29AM

FTSE 100

If the FTSE does not smash through the 6960/7000 zone in the next two weeks, one would think that a triple top has formed on the weekly charts and possibly a double top on the monthly.

For ever odd · 01-10-2016 08:55AM

If a week is a long time in politics, it certainly can ring true in the world of high finance
My goodness, it feels like a lifetime ago (to me anyhow) since the presidenal debate on Monday to Yellen talking about buying equities if (when) things go bad on Friday. Sandwiched in between was the OPEC (Saudi) decision to offer a production freeze and the Deutsch Bank saga with rumours galore.

To be honest I don't even know where to start evaluating the week, but the first thought that came into my head when I woke this morning - was there is a orchestrated effort to keep markets from crashing.

So I am not even going to try, going to chill for a few days, starting with the All Ireland, gonna whack a few bob on Mayo as it's lashing rain all morning in Dublin.

Enjoy the weekend lads.

iainBB · 01-10-2016 09:05AM

For ever odd wrote: »

If a week is a long time in politics, it certainly can ring true in the world of high finance
My goodness, it feels like a lifetime ago (to me anyhow) since the presidenal debate on Monday to Yellen talking about buying equities if (when) things go bad on Friday. Sandwiched in between was the OPEC (Saudi) decision to offer a production freeze and the Deutsch Bank saga with rumours galore.

To be honest I don't even know where to start evaluating the week, but the first thought that came into my head when I woke this morning - was there is a orchestrated effort to keep markets from crashing.

So I am not even going to try, going to chill for a few days, starting with the All Ireland, gonna whack a few bob on Mayo as it's lashing rain all morning in Dublin.

Enjoy the weekend lads.

Spot on ., What a week I timed the drop in oil after the deal well ,but lost out due to Russia backing the deal and price raise again, amazing how news can mess with you.

dasdog · 01-10-2016 12:14PM

Another in agreement. I was reading about back testing data and what to include and equally important what not to include when devising algo's, one action is do nothing, don't execute. This is a valid action.

For ever odd · 02-10-2016 09:30PM

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-01/sept-11-widow-first-american-sue-saudi-arabia-terrorism-her-full-lawsuit

On Friday, September 30, a woman widowed when her husband was killed at the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2001 became the first American to sue the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Washington DC District Court, just two days after Congress slammed Obama for siding with Saudi Arabia, overriding his presidential veto only for the first time in his administration, and enacting legislation allowing Americans to sue foreign governments for allegedly playing a role in terrorist attacks on U.S. soil.

One wonders will Saudi follow through on their threat to withdraw monies (around $750billion)from the US if this got passed.

For ever odd · 02-10-2016 10:07PM

dasdog wrote: »

Another in agreement. I was reading about back testing data and what to include and equally important what not to include when devising algo's, one action is do nothing, don't execute. This is a valid action.

What book are you reading? Be careful what data you are back testing, some can be unreliable.

BrokenArrows · 03-10-2016 09:09AM

For ever odd wrote: »

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-01/sept-11-widow-first-american-sue-saudi-arabia-terrorism-her-full-lawsuit

One wonders will Saudi follow through on their threat to withdraw monies (around $750billion)from the US if this got passed.

The concept of sueing a government for terrorist actions just brings a whole new level of insanity of the US lawsuit happy stereotype.

What courtroom would even be qualified to judge such a thing and where would it be tried? The US?

dasdog · 03-10-2016 12:02PM

For ever odd wrote: »

What book are you reading? Be careful what data you are back testing, some can be unreliable.

Article is here. Author makes some great stragetic contributions which I normally have to re-read to better understand. I'm not using the technique, sitting on the sidelines for the past few days as I don't see anything of interest.

For ever odd · 03-10-2016 04:52PM

VOLKSWAGEN OF AMERICA SEPT. U.S. AUTO SALES DOWN 7.8%.

VW on the weekly ready for a breakout to downside, this news could give it a nudge.

With DB worries, short DAX could be a good set up.

dasdog · 07-10-2016 12:18AM

Interesting start to Friday for Sterling. Cable hit a low of $1.083 and was back above $1.20 in seconds.

ixus · 07-10-2016 12:30AM

That is insane. Also a flash crash in Swiss the other day.

dasdog · 07-10-2016 12:43AM

Shaking my head in disbelief at that one. My one min candlestick is showing a $1.083 low, I don't know if its a platform error as its not being reported that low elsewhere. Some serious damage done I imagine.

ixus · 07-10-2016 12:59AM

Certainly traded 1.18 area from twitter. People will be waking up wondering wtf happened.

beaner92 · 07-10-2016 01:09AM

wow that nuts, also do you guys use trading view uk? it would be a bit more live than boards.ie?

Also anyone here trade s&p futures?

For ever odd · 07-10-2016 06:09AM

dasdog wrote: »

Interesting start to Friday for Sterling. Cable hit a low of $1.083 and was back above $1.20 in seconds.

I was thinkng of of putting in a buy order at 1.248, but thought it would be next week before it got down to that level. Lucky

Fat fingers is the best Excuse they can come up with at the moment. Stop-loss triggers, and algo's.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/07/pound-flash-crash-sees-sterling-plunge-6pc-within-minutes/

BrokenArrows · 07-10-2016 11:40AM

wtf is happening to the £

Typical, just before im about to go on holidays. Haha.

For ever odd · 07-10-2016 12:39PM

Watch your screen at 1:30, see if the big boys are still playing... See can than they claw some losses back.

TRADER'S CORNER

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