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Predicting the future?

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 826 ✭✭✭Snowball


    I was watching the X-files (for the first time in years) last night and I know thats its a bit... well u know but none the less the Char Daina Scully was asked about the universe and its predictablility and where there it was possible to predict someones presonality on the basis of their numerology (u know numerology, that thing there your name and dob make a number between 1-9 and then it defines ur personalitym, anyways) and she said (not a direct quote word for word because I've not that good a memory but it's close):

    "No, no because I don't belive that something as complicated as the universe can be defined in a single calculation or formula"

    Thats what I belive. How can something as complicated and diverse as the universe be explained and predicted in a mathematical calculation. I dont doubt that some of the things that happen in the universe can but all?

    I mean look and things like me making up before the phone rings, or thinking of someone that you hav enot seen in a long time and then they ring you. Day-ya-vie (or how ever it's spelt). Or even in my case where I used to wake up if someone wanted to get into my room with bad intentions (sounds strange but i'll explain). Years ago when all my family were at home my mother (as all mother's do) used to just come into my room when I was asleep (as I always was) and bump cloths and so on but when my sis wanted to rob cd's or other gadgets of mine I would wake up even before she was in the room. My mother could just walk in and out but when my sis tried to sneek in it woke up. She had to drop some cloths off once and just walked in and I did not wake up but when she realised I was not awake she tried to take my walkman and I was awake in a flash.
    I have heard of stranger things that can't be esily explained and definetly not entirly explained.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,341 ✭✭✭Koopa


    where there it was possible to predict someones presonality on the basis of their numerology
    whats this got to do with numerology?
    How can something as complicated and diverse as the universe be explained and predicted
    the same way something as complicated and diverse as your computer can be explained and predicted, if you know enough about it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 451 ✭✭Zukustious


    This uncertainty princible doesn't mean "we" can't predict the future of whatever particle, it means that it cannot be predicted. Apparantly, every possible reality does happen. There are numerous paths a photon can take from one point to another. It takes them all. That's what the uncertainty princible is all about. Alternate realities are assumed to be in existence. Some evidence to go with this is that there are gravitational effects on certain galaxies, i.e. they're being pulled to some point. When the point is observed, there is nothing there.

    It is thought that gravity is from other universes. Different quatum realities. They are being pulled by something and this is a possible explanation. Personally I found this really interesting.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,341 ✭✭✭Koopa


    you're making statements but not offering any logic behind them..
    example:
    This uncertainty princible doesn't mean "we" can't predict the future of whatever particle, it means that it cannot be predicted.
    says who? if it says that, then whats it based on? how do we know its right?
    There are numerous paths a photon can take from one point to another. It takes them all
    this is bull****, by the way.., its an old theory model which was used to explain the behaviour of photons going through a diffraction grating (i think - been a long time), and even then it didnt explain it perfectly

    the stuff about alternate realities.. in fact, most of your post, is all theory. come back when you have some facts to back it up, for example the gravitational pull on the far away galaxies could be caused by almost anything, it could even be so-called "dark matter" which is basically matter which doesnt emit light or whatever (like an asteroid, as opposed to a star). plenty of explanations , would be incorrect to choose one arbitrarily until you have some facts to correlate with the theory


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 451 ✭✭Zukustious


    That's what's weird about quantum mechanics. It seems completely illogical.

    The dark matter theory could be true, but it would take a hell of a lot of dark matter to create the gravity to pull those galaxies. You'd have to have galaxies of dark matter which would be huge and they would be detectable if a "normal matter" galaxy were to pass the space behind it.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,341 ✭✭✭Koopa


    if quantum mechanics seems illogical, then id tend to think it wasnt giving the whole picture

    rules can work "most of the time" (quantum mechanics works "most of the time") without giving the real picture. example: even if you didnt know anything about a robot/computer, you could still somewhat inaccurately predict its behaviour to something just by watching how it reacted to that thing previously, but if you knew everything there was to know about the robot/computer, you could predict its behaviour perfectly.

    The dark matter theory could be true, but it would take a hell of a lot of dark matter to create the gravity to pull those galaxies
    true, but its a theory - at this time given our knowledge its at least as valid as the one about "alternate realities"

    remember, we're not even sure what gravity is right now - a lot of mass may not necessarily needed for a lot of gravity, in fact it could even be another, as yet unknown, force acting on those galaxies - we dont know.

    in my opinion, both the uncertainty principle, and quantum mechanics, are "transitionary" physics - they work in certain situations, but not in others - because they dont present the full picture, and theyre mostly derived from observation/experiments (which cant paint a complete model) as opposed to actually theorising a complete model.
    its kindof like how the greeks(?) used to think there were 4 elements - earth, fire, air, water - that made up everything.. it worked for them, a water element could dissolve an earth element, and so on - for them it was "true", for example it predicted the corrosion of seaside rocks by the sea, etc. - the only real reason we have a better model of the elements is because we've observed atoms, molecules, etc. - theres still huge gaps on our knowledge though, to a future generation our current physics will probably seem as primitive as the greeks's seems to us, if it has rules such as
    This uncertainty princible doesn't mean "we" can't predict the future of whatever particle, it means that it cannot be predicted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 48 Ex_hale


    interesting read lads!

    just a few thoughts, dont read into em too deeply, im tired enough as it is:)

    personally i believe future predictions of the the afforementioned type will and could never exist. everything in the universe may not be random, but it does respond to certain forces, mostly gravitational, whether those forces can be predicted will always be to a degree of 'the unknown' and would always be theorised since every ounce of moving matter exherts forces on another in the universe it would be literally f&ckng impossible to take all that into account when trying to accurately predict the path of one single entity in the whole scope of things considering for eg. the hiss of tv static to this day, denotes radiation remnants that still lingers from the big bang!
    what began was a universe with no stars, no galaxies and no light, just a mix of primordial gasses (mainly hydrogen/helium and smaller quantities of lithium) immersed in invisible matter, to the infinite sea of galaxies we know about today.

    "The most persuasive theory about the origin of galaxies depends on the behavior of particles no one has ever seen. Known only by its gravitational force, mysterious dark matter pulls ordinary matter into its web, amassing enough gas for galaxies to form. Ordinary matter accounts for only 10% of the universe; the rest is dark matter." hawking pronounced the discovery of dark matter as "the discovery of the century, if not of all time".

    even after the big bang it is thought the universe plunged into darkness for another half billion years before something happened to bring it all together. i envision that the universe is still growing, still evolving, still changing, creating more gases, more elements and even worlds with more diversified life than our own and so forth hence anything that continues to grow is not necessarily predictable is it?. even if you used the big bang as your point of reference, you would have approx 15billion years of chaos and creation to analyze, a computer would go insane trying to figure that one out!

    all in all, as the human race progresses, i think we are getting more and more, probably unconsciously, in tune to our surroundings and that of the future. who knows, one day we might not even need to figure it all out:) a girl i know once told me a story, she said her mother had a dream about her boss dying and falling into her arms, around that time (they had just moved from the area) she got a phone call telling her that he had died suddenly. im sure there are plenty of people who have heard stranger tales but thats what makes life interesting for us all isnt it? i for one would hate to live in a world of predictability.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1 Andyzzzzz


    See, I've been thinking about this a bit too lately. I know about the Heisenberg uncertainty principle etc etc etc, but that's only really relevant when you start talking about measuring stuff (e.g. trying to build a future-predicting computer).

    What I think, until someone comes up with a convincing argument to persuade me otherwise, is that regardless of whether you can know the position and momentum of all the particles, they do all have have a definite position and momentum. As such, when they collide, there'll be a definite outcome. Obviously you couldn't measure it (so no future-predicting machine), but I still thing that because it's happening it kind of implies a complete lack of free will. What happens happens.

    That's what I think, convince me otherwise.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,295 ✭✭✭Meh


    Originally posted by Zukustious
    That's what's weird about quantum mechanics. It seems completely illogical.
    Counter-intuitive, yes. Illogical, no.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,454 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    ..and even more on trying to change it - think of market research

    I take it you have read Foundations - psychohistory or some such. Using demographics and psychology to determine trends.

    I like the old Jesuit idea where they could mould children's minds - ie. predict the future by forming it..

    Quantum effects prevent exact solutions - but you can get statistical averages - but then there is the problem of chaos - best way to solve this is social engineering - get people to rat on each other, that way you will have a nice stable dictatorship...

    On the science forum I posted a number (factorial 10E340 or somesuch) representing all possible combinations of all possible universes the size and age of ours...


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 10,730 ✭✭✭✭simu


    I think free will is an illusion but, on the other hand, I don't see humans having the computational facilities to predict the future accurately anytime soon, if ever. I mean, even if you could overcome the uncertainty principle (and I'm not saying this is possible) you would need to make huge amounts of measurements and calculations and there would simply be too much data to tabulate to make any headway into predicting events at "our" level (i.e. our day to day world as opposed to predicting the movement of particles in a lab experiment).

    But, just for fun, imagine what if would be like if you could sit down at a console and read all about what is going to happen to you/other ppl/the world in the next 5 minutes/next millenium, whatever.

    I imagine the universe must maintain some sort of internal integrity i.e. the going back in time to kill your own grandfather paradox could not be realised as (apart from the trouble of inventing time-travel!) it would cause inconsistancy. So, even if you knew when you were going to die you could not prevent it from happening. You'd probably spend the afternoon at your console reading about all your attempts to avoid your unfortunate death caused by being crushed under a pile of cabbages rolling down a hill on May 3rd 2045 and then how this happened anyway. (Also assuming there would be a nice user-frinedly program that would translate all the data on this prediction computer to a more easily readable format). The universe would have "factored" in the effects of humans having developed the ability to predict future events, a bit like the plot of the film 12 Monkeys, I guess.

    So, how would this affect people? I'm sure many would get depressed about it but as new generations grew up, future prediction would become banal and would be as obvious an idea as the earth being a sphere is to us. Going to find out the time of your death would be something people just get around to at some time or another, just like, say, losing one's virginity. Of course, there would probably be obscuritans who would reject this new technology just as these are those who reject evolution today. Possibly more worrying would be the issue of who has access to the data - the rich and powerful only? and the threat to privacy brought about by being able to predict people's thoughts.

    Speculation is so much fun!

    As for Donnie Darko, my interpretation of the film was that the universe was running in a patchy(well, more complicated than we imagine) manner, i.e. that determination worked in many different directions, not just straight ahead in time from the big bang, as we like to think of it. Like a drawing - you draw a picture of say, a city and after drawing say a sun in the sky, you decide you don't want it to be daytime so you erase the sun and put a moon or an airplane or whatever instead. Your sun would have existed for a while and then ceased to exist. I thought the film implied that the universe was constantly testing things out and modifying itself on all sides and that although we like to think of the past as being fixed, it is in fact also subject to change. Perhaps the universe will "decide" it no longer wants me in it and will go back and modify all aspects of itself relating to me. For some reason, in the film, it went wrong, as Donnie became aware of what was happening - the horror! He realises he is to the universe the equivalent of a page of an essay you consign to the bin!

    If the above paragraph makes sense to you, please explain it to me:)!


  • Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 729 ✭✭✭popinfresh


    Humans do have free will, but free will is predictable.. And also, is it not like physically impossible for a computer to emulate every single atom in the universe, after all, this computer would have to be physically larger than the universe when you consider the nature of computers.And also, the computer itself would have to predict itself, as it is also made of atoms and part of the universe. The only thing I can think of is to create a parallel universe to ours and then, if it's possible, manipulate the time to show that universe how you want it. Of course I'm guessing it'd be something like the year 2700, before something like that could even be comprehended, if it's even possible. We would have to find a way to extend our influence past our universe, which may by definition be impossible..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 10,730 ✭✭✭✭simu


    Maybe our universe is just an emulator then:)

    But, seriously, You couldn't even build a parallel universe to predict the future because the act of our observing it to see what happens would cause divergence with our own universe.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭loismustdie


    Originally posted by Snowball
    Is the problem that Ivan is talking about not solvable by using multiple computers comunicating between each other? Then one could know the composition of the atom and the other could know the trogectory and speed. If they were fast enough could one not predict the future?

    Oh but jst to shoot my self in the ass. Ivan, we were talking last week about decripting some encription algarithum (the prob is I cant remember the name of the encription) and the fact that it would be imposible because th computers needed would need more energy than it is possible to produce?

    why bother postin up if you realised a mistake? lol
    why wouldn't there be enough energy


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