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For ever odd · 24-06-2016 06:29AM

For ever odd wrote: »

Boris Johnson giving the thumbs up for brexit, Cameron bound to be pissed off. The people to follow Boris in my opinion, markets will give more weight to a brexit.

Ahem....

For ever odd · 24-06-2016 06:29AM

For ever odd wrote: »

Boris Johnson giving the thumbs up for brexit, Cameron bound to be pissed off. The people to follow Boris in my opinion, markets will give more weight to a brexit.

Ahem....

Wanderer78 · 24-06-2016 06:46AM

For ever odd wrote:

Ahem....

Ah feck off and stop gloating

drunkmonkey · 24-06-2016 08:42AM

Anyone going to try and catch a falling knife today, oil, sterling, uk100?

Wanderer78 · 24-06-2016 08:45AM

drunkmonkey wrote:

Anyone going to try and catch a falling knife today, oil, sterling, uk100?

Fresh air be a good thing to have today

For ever odd · 24-06-2016 09:50AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

For ever odd wrote:

Ahem....

Ah feck off and stop gloating

Cheers... Inexcusable of me, for letting my human side out.

Live long and prosper.

dasdog · 24-06-2016 09:57AM

On a call 6:30 this morning it was stated firstly Cameron would resign and then Carney would come out stating he would provide whatever liquidity is required for the banks, then the BoE would cut by midday. They got two right so far, I dont quite follow the logic of the third.

JeffKenna · 24-06-2016 10:23AM

Have people been brave and bought? I picked up some Ryanair shares this morning. Lets see if they bounce

iainBB · 24-06-2016 10:33AM

JeffKenna wrote: »

Have people been brave and bought? I picked up some Ryanair shares this morning. Lets see if they bounce

No complete out . this is a very dangerous time and to many unknowns .only expert day trader can make money right now.

This is not a normal bounce like a terrorist attack or crop failure and then sudden up again . bounces are when people get scared. This is very different

.the market is trying to value the chance in the long run it may trigger a down turn in the current bull market.

JeffKenna · 24-06-2016 10:46AM

iainBB wrote: »

No complete out . this is a very dangerous time and to many unknowns .only expert day trader can make money right now.

This is not a normal bounce like a terrorist attack or crop failure and then sudden up again . bounces are when people get scared. This is very different

.the market is trying to value the chance in the long run it may trigger a down turn in the current bull market.

Perhaps you may be right. I'll see how it goes for the afternoon and might sell out then depending. I don't want to be over in Lyon Monday, hungover, seeing a continual fall in prices!

Wanderer78 · 24-06-2016 10:49AM

JeffKenna wrote:

Perhaps you may be right. I'll see how it goes for the afternoon and might sell out then depending. I don't want to be over in Lyon Monday hungover seeing a continual fall in prices!

No panicking is the key here. Markets will be all over the place for a while.

drunkmonkey · 24-06-2016 11:25AM

Ryanair looks like a buy, what do you reckon?

Prezatch · 24-06-2016 11:54AM

There were some crazy movements in paddy power betfair this morning :eek:

https://www.google.com/finance?q=LON%3APPB&ei=vRBtV7C5O9XBUauzrLAP

For ever odd · 24-06-2016 12:02PM

Psychological US market open to come yet.

For ever odd · 03-07-2016 10:06AM

Third time lucky or third light unlucky?

We have had three big dips in the equity markets in less than a year, the last two have been bought aggressively ( August 24, February 11), this time around it was of course the Brexit vote on June 24 that induced a Sell-off, and what do you know? It was bought again! So the question I asked myself was - is this third time lucky or will I end up like WW1 soldier in the trench, receiving a snipers bullet for taking the third light.

To answer this, I pulled up a weekly chart of the eurstoxx 50 and what do you know? It has an argument for both buy and sell, depending on your view and how strong it is (strong opinions can blindside one's ability to make sound judgement).
The technical arguments are a Elliot wave pattern (sell) or a double bottom (buy). I have made that decision for myself and have no need to argue anymore.... I'm going for both.

Now let me expand on that, I am wholeheartedly blindsided by the elliot wave pattern (got the first two waves), but since when does it matter what I think, it only matters what the most buyers or seller's think, and as of now it seems the double bottom is favoured by the most...Yay, and at the moment I'm cheering you guys on....I am looking for a new entry to go short.

Wave 2 was deep and clean while wave 4 was shallow and messy. Price is around the 76.4% retracement of wave 3 with 61.8 and 50 % at 3012 and 3112 respectively ( For those of you trading futures, the levels may be different but the same principle applies). I am going to work off a rounded 900 points for waves 1 and 3 giving a 1450 (rounded) points wave 5 target ( 900 x 1.61). For those of you that are exact and want every point go ahead, I'll be setting my exit points 50 or so before actual target.
Target 1) 2160 (161.8% extention of wave 3) exit point 2210.
Target 2) 1722 ( wave 5 target of 1450) exit point 1780.

I am aware it sounds crazy, but sure it's never stopped me before! I will give up on the idea if we get a weekly close above 3172..
Timeframe is sub 12 months. For now I'm running with the herd, but am ready to start building a short position.
I have also looked at the fundermentals.

For ever odd · 30-07-2016 06:34PM

For ever odd wrote: »

Americans on a credit card splurge , frightening amounts!
Some of the comments at the bottom of page are equally as frightening.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-06/americans-unleash-epic-debt-fuelled-spending-spree-credit-card-debt-jumps-most-recor

And

http://news.sky.com/story/bank-sees-fastest-growth-in-credit-since-2005-10516271

Consumer credit meanwhile grew by £1.8bn, compared to an average of £1.5bn over the past six months, and credit card lending increased by £559m in June.

There are concerns that people are being tempted to over-stretch themselves in the current low interest environment, when borrowing is cheaper.

Figures for people taking out personal loans and using their overdrafts has increased to £1.3bn, the biggest rise since October 2007.

Jane Tully, director of external affairs at the Money Advice Trust, said the results are worrying.

"The continued surge in consumer credit is reinforcing our concern that some households rise being left exposed to financial difficulty, if the economy does indeed suffer in the wake of the EU referendum result," she said.

"Most people are currently able to handle the extra borrowing they have taken on, but a minority are still struggling with the impact of the last decade's squeeze on household incomes.

Some people are doing what they have to do, and some are taking advantage of the system, but it is the banks that are taking advantage of the system and the people.
This is happening worldwide and is not going to end well.

For ever odd · 30-07-2016 08:49PM

Any takers for the expectations that BoE are to cut rates next week and maybe more QE?

Been away on extended hols, so lost touch a little.

ixus · 31-07-2016 09:11AM

I think the CB's are all waiting until their big get together in Jackson Hole before enacting anything major.

Boe has some significant data points though, so could go in Aug.

dasdog · 31-07-2016 02:02PM

Consensus seems to be they will at least cut. But if you look at July data, it wasn't that bad aside from Retail Sales (although most data is pre June 23rd).
I'm not convinced they will go this time. My reasoning is they haven't even left the EU yet and haven't imploded, so why use up this option so early?

I'll be reactionary to this as my view is very much against the tide and the downside risk is massive.

For ever odd · 31-07-2016 03:54PM

Everyone is still looking for that downside move, a bit like the parity 'Euro trade' of last year, a general rule of thumb i have used over the years, is knock five cent/pence of whatever price is been touted online and in the media.

I have been working on a new model that would reduce work load and it suggests a trip to 1.3520 near term, which would tie in nicely with a short squeeze in the run up to this, medium term (2-6 weeks) it suggests 1.2480. This is the first time I am trying it on FX so not sure how it will work-out, but might as well post it here, and see how she goes.

I would be using this model for entries into big moves. Take it with a pinch of salt for now.

drunkmonkey · 01-08-2016 02:29PM

News wasn't good on the stress tests for AIB or BOI http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/bank-stress-tests-setback-to-aib-and-bank-of-ireland-1.2740777

For ever odd · 01-08-2016 08:18PM

fritz_murphy wrote: »

is it not surprising that so little media attention is focusing on the massive sell off in bank of ireland shares , we are now closing in on levels not seen since the country was still in recession , are the banks in trouble again ?

It's not just Bank of Ireland, here's a few links to articles....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3987686-europes-banks-dinosaurs-last-legs

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkudla/2016/07/28/seeing-smoke-in-european-banks/#10db2b804b97

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36708357

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EUFN?p=EUFN

Not sure if even super Mario can catch all the domino's if one falls.

For ever odd · 01-08-2016 10:22PM

"It's probably nothing..."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-01/dow-suffers-longest-losing-streak-year-crude-crashes-credit-craters

Francie Barrett · 02-08-2016 11:23PM

I am no trader, but in light of the positive economic data and the FTSE shrugging off fears of a slowdown, what do folks think about going long Sterling in anticipation of the BOE rate decision this Thursday? Market seems to think a rate cut is high probability, I reckon not.

For ever odd · 03-08-2016 06:56AM

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I am no trader, but in light of the positive economic data and the FTSE shrugging off fears of a slowdown, what do folks think about going long Sterling in anticipation of the BOE rate decision this Thursday? Market seems to think a rate cut is high probability, I reckon not.

It is the forward guidance that will determine the direction of sterling. There is a few permutations to the will/won't they rate cut and QE mentioned a few post's ago.

Kilough · 03-08-2016 01:29PM

Hi - I'm a novice when it comes to trading/currencies so please bear with me!

I'm currently living in the UK, planning on moving back to Ireland in a month or two. Have savings in sterling and want to understand when I should change it over to euro. I'd possibly like to purchase some property within the next 12 months when back in Ireland so will need as much cash as possible for a deposit.

So question is, change my money now before tomorrow's BOE announcement and (possible) interest cut + QE and subsequent devaluation of sterling? Of course the BOE could announce no cut and like the last time a month ago, the sterling could increase in strength. Or maybe it's best to wait it out and in the next 12 months see the Sterling get stronger and change then. Or is there some other fool proof investment that could help me get the most for over the medium term?!

Any advice appreciated.

BrokenArrows · 03-08-2016 02:09PM

Kilough wrote: »

Hi - I'm a novice when it comes to trading/currencies so please bear with me!

I'm currently living in the UK, planning on moving back to Ireland in a month or two. Have savings in sterling and want to understand when I should change it over to euro. I'd possibly like to purchase some property within the next 12 months when back in Ireland so will need as much cash as possible for a deposit.

So question is, change my money now before tomorrow's BOE announcement and (possible) interest cut + QE and subsequent devaluation of sterling? Of course the BOE could announce no cut and like the last time a month ago, the sterling could increase in strength. Or maybe it's best to wait it out and in the next 12 months see the Sterling get stronger and change then. Or is there some other fool proof investment that could help me get the most for over the medium term?!

Any advice appreciated.

In my personal opinion you should wait it out until you need to money. Now is almost the worst time to try and convert it.
There is minimal downside but a larger upside.

For ever odd · 03-08-2016 09:38PM

Kilough wrote: »

Hi - I'm a novice when it comes to trading/currencies so please bear with me!

I'm currently living in the UK, planning on moving back to Ireland in a month or two. Have savings in sterling and want to understand when I should change it over to euro. I'd possibly like to purchase some property within the next 12 months when back in Ireland so will need as much cash as possible for a deposit.

]So question is, change my money now before tomorrow's BOE announcement and (possible) interest cut + QE and subsequent devaluation of sterling? Of course the BOE could announce no cut and like the last time a month ago, the sterling could increase in strength. Or maybe it's best to wait it out and in the next 12 months see the Sterling get stronger and change then. Or is there some other fool proof investment that could help me get the most for over the medium term?!

Any advice appreciated.

Can i ask how you planned to change your money over in a day? I know if I rocked into any of the banks in Ireland with more than 10-20 grand and asked for sterling or dollars I'd be told to come back in 1-5 days.
How are things over there?

Kilough · 03-08-2016 09:59PM

For ever odd wrote: »

Kilough wrote: »

Hi - I'm a novice when it comes to trading/currencies so please bear with me!

I'm currently living in the UK, planning on moving back to Ireland in a month or two. Have savings in sterling and want to understand when I should change it over to euro. I'd possibly like to purchase some property within the next 12 months when back in Ireland so will need as much cash as possible for a deposit.

]So question is, change my money now before tomorrow's BOE announcement and (possible) interest cut + QE and subsequent devaluation of sterling? Of course the BOE could announce no cut and like the last time a month ago, the sterling could increase in strength. Or maybe it's best to wait it out and in the next 12 months see the Sterling get stronger and change then. Or is there some other fool proof investment that could help me get the most for over the medium term?!

Any advice appreciated.

Can i ask how you planned to change your money over in a day? I know if I rocked into any of the banks in Ireland with more than 10-20 grand and asked for sterling or dollars I'd be told to come back in 1-5 days.
How are things over there?

I still have an Irish account which is connected to a Currencyfair account along with my UK account. I've changed 5k in the past, I don't think there's any issue with larger figures as long as there's enough currency on the CF market to match with.

Thanks for response brokenarrows. Maybe it's best to forget about it. Maybe even put a conditional exchange on CF, say do exchange when rate hits 1.3. Might have to wait quite a while on that. Just hope it doesn't flunk towards parity.

For ever odd · 03-08-2016 10:07PM

Do Currency fair operate on a fixed daily rate or do they quote prices relative to intra-day fluctuations?

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