Is Exile a red-herring???

bonkey

I was thinking last night about the oft-stated "option" the US and UK have listed as an alternative to war...which would be for Saddam and his cronies to go into exile.

Now, Im confused about this.

On one hand, we are told that disarmament is the "real" objective, and that removing Saddam is necessary both to facilitate this, and to prevent re-arming.

Also, it is necessary to have full and complete access to Iraq by the military, so that after winning the war, they can concentrate their efforts into finding the weapons they know Saddam has, but arent aware of where he has them....so that Saddamites cannot get their hands on them first and keep them hidden or use them in (surprise, surprise) terrorist-related activities.

Now....if Saddam abdicates, how will this achieve disarmament? How will it prevent other supporters of the Hussein regime from getting their gruibby mitts on these hidden WMDs, from giving them to terrorists, or from using them???

I cant see how it would....which makes this "option" very suspect.

To me, it looks more like another red-herring option put forward which is being made to gain brownie points with the public, but if it ever actually arose in reality that Hussein was willing to consider this, it would turn out to be declared as "meaningless" for some reason.....as has happened on so many other issues during this entire conflict - there have been a myriad of demands made of Iraq, which have been put forward as "necessary to show co-operation and to avoid war". However, when Iraq finally accepts its lack of options and agrees, the co-operation is dismissed as meaningless.

Am I missing something? Is there some way in which abdication/exile would satisfy the stated goals of disarmament?

jc

Éomer of Rohan

Actually, if Saddam was shrewd enough and took a few million USD and abdicated, the support for war amongst the public would pretty much evporate (I feel) because the propagandists in the west have made this man into an archnemesis and would need a replacement nemesis to capture the public feeling of enmity that they have managed to engender against Saddam.

The reality is that nothing would change naturally; the Iraqis would not give the weapons to terrorists now or then. They are not fools.

Victor

I suppose "exile" is more than just exile, it means exile with full cooperation without comeback. thats the only way it would work.

davelerave

yeh i think it's a red herring as it's not gonna happen ,but it does the 'allies' no harm to mention it,saddam will stay no matter what imo

Hobbes

The Exile solution put forward I believe also ropes in a load of other people loyal to Saddam, so as to stop the regime? (can't see how).

Éomer of Rohan

The Exile solution put forward I believe also ropes in a load of other people loyal to Saddam, so as to stop the regime? (can't see how).

They are probably acting on the assumption that if the 'revolutionary elite' as they are called leave, then there will be no opposition to a democratic regime. If the power brokers of the Ba'ath party leave then it is most likely that, in my opinion, the army would take direct control and so long as the General in command was suitable, this could well occur with a US blessing.

Victor

Powell was on Fox News and as much as said that exile was complete regime change, everyone goes and the new regime cooperates and disarms. If they don't cooperate ...

Éomer of Rohan

And lets remember who defines 'co-operates' since it is certainly NOT the arms inspectors.

Exile? Do any of you really expect that the US would let this man retire peacefully? Even if he left the country he wouldn't remain free for long.

Saddam will not leave Iraq, simply because he knows that the US offer is a farce. Saddams only hope is that he makes this war as bloody as possible, and forces the US to sue for peace.

b3t4

Saddam rejects U.S. ultimatum......

http://home.eircom.net/content/reuters/worldnews/384002?view=Eircomnet

A.

Can you really blame him, since doing so would definetly be his death warrant? Whereas sticking thru the war, gives him almost a chance to come out of this in one piece.

Éomer of Rohan

Can you really blame him, since doing so would definetly be his death warrant? Whereas sticking thru the war, gives him almost a chance to come out of this in one piece

Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't eh?

The CIA might bungle the attempt however - look at the ridiculous attempts on Fidel Castro's life (and beard LOL).

The CIA might bungle the attempt however

maybe, but i doubt the other american intelligence agencies would allow Saddam to survive. Can you imagine him writing his biography, whereby he tells the world about his dealings with the US? It would be one of the worlds largest bestsellers...