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Likely casualties of war in Iraq

  • 29-01-2003 11:57pm
    #1
    shotamoose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭


    In all the arguments over the reasons for and against a war in Iraq, there's not been much discussion of how many Iraqis are likely to die in one.

    A recently leaked secret UN document called 'Likely Humanitarian Scenarios' tried to answer this question, based on estimating the impact of various military outcomes, directly (ie casualties of war) and indirectly (death and increased illhealth and displacement due to infrastructure and distribution network disruption). It's available at www.casi.org

    Some of the main points:
    -about 500,000 people could require medical treatement to a greater or lesser degree as a result of direct or indirect injuries;
    - the nutritional status of some 3.03 million persons countrywide will be dire
    -electricity and sanitation infrastructure will be severely affected, leaving millions without drinking water and vulnerable to diseases like cholera and dysentery.
    -about 900,000 refugees will require immediate assistance, with about 2m internally displaced. about 3.6m are likely to require emergency shelter.

    Meanwhile, Medact estimates that between 7,200 and 86,000 Iraqi civilians will die, with between 3,200-80,000 Iraqi troop casualities. As a handy guide, the UN calculated that in the first Gulf War, between 3,500 and 15,000 civilians and 100,000 to 120,000 troops were killed.

    Another thing the first UN report does is give the lie to claims that the Iraqi regime is deliberately starving its own people or even just allowing them to starve as a result of sanctions. 16 million people in Iraq depend on a free monthly food basket distributed by the Iraqi government.

    So I wonder if Bush and Blair, both men said to be greatly motivated by strong Christian faith, have thought much about how many dead Iraqis is too many dead Iraqis, and how many is just fine? How high do you think the figure should go before we decided that there's got to be a better way to tackle WMD and / or change the regime in Iraq?


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