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Probability

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  • 02-06-2002 8:30pm
    #1
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,290 ✭✭✭✭


    If the odds (as stated by a bookie) in a particular competition are 
    a 	4/1
b 	8/11
c 	6/5
d 	8/1

    are the percentage chances:
    a 	 20.00%
b 	 57.89%
c 	 45.45%
d 	 11.11%
total 	134.46%
    ?


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    #2
    scipio_major
    Closed Accounts Posts: 175 ✭✭scipio_major


    Yes and no.

    Yes because technically a 1 in 4 chance means that the horse should win 25% of the time.

    And no because no Bookie works this out mathematically. Bookies guess what the odds are (based on what they know about the horses, what the punters are betting on and intuitian). I suppose you could say that the 34.4% represents the doubt factor in the race.

    Also I think you may have put your finger on the reason why the bookie always wins.

    Fade to Credits
    Scipio_major


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    #3
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,290 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    Originally posted by scipio_major
    Yes because technically a 1 in 4 chance means that the horse should win 25% of the time.
    Is 4 to 1, 20% or 25%?


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    #4
    Ciaran
    Registered Users Posts: 910 ✭✭✭Ciaran


    Originally posted by Victor

    Is 4 to 1, 20% or 25%?

    4 - 1 means that for every time the horse wins, it will lose 4 times. So 4 - 1 is 20%. The 134.46% means that the bookie will make money!


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