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Election Results approx?

  • 18-05-2002 5:37pm
    #1
    JacquesPompidou
    Closed Accounts Posts: 72 ✭✭


    Results????

    FF: 75-82 Seats???

    FG: 28-32

    Labour: 23-31

    Pds: 4-8

    Greens: 2-5

    Sinn Fein: 4-6

    Socialst: 1-2

    Others/Ind: 9-10


Comments

  • #2
    JacquesPompidou
    Closed Accounts Posts: 72 ✭✭JacquesPompidou


    Results????

    FF: 76-86 Seats???

    FG: 27-31

    Labour: 23-31

    Pds: 5-9

    Greens: 2-5

    Sinn Fein: 3-5

    Socialst: 1-3

    Others/Ind: 9-12

    Subject to Change?? Will FF get in Alone?


  • #3
    sceptre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,608 ✭✭✭✭sceptre


    Guessing (been the same guess since 12 today):

    FF: 81-82
    PD:6-7
    SF:5
    GP:4-5

    Realistically for FF, 82 can be regarded as a working majority if they let someone else be ceann comhairle - they'll have two independent candidates from Clare and Donegal NE voting with them on every vote.

    It'd take a brave chap to guess Fine Gael at this point. I thought about 39 before the election.


  • #4
    JacquesPompidou
    Closed Accounts Posts: 72 ✭✭JacquesPompidou


    Good Guess work Sceptre.

    This is a big shock, big change but not like Labour in England or Lepen in France?


    Will Labour pass out Fine Gael, it looks like it!


    Current Results?

    F. F ,,,,,,, 46
    Labour ,,,,,16
    F. Gael ,,,, 15

    Green ,,,,,,,4
    Sinn Fein,,,,3
    PD s ,,,,,,,,,,,3

    Indepent/Other 7

    Fine Gael are finished


  • #5
    sceptre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,608 ✭✭✭✭sceptre


    I'm usually good at guessing these things:D - back in 87 and 89 (when I first discovered the joy of STV at the age of 12) I got the number of seats FF and FG were going to get correct with three weeks to go (one was in a competition).

    Looks like FF may get their majority after pulling two seats in Bertie's constituency.

    FG finished - not sure. I think there has been a bit of a move to the PDs in particular as some traditional FG supporters, knowing they were going to lose switched their votes to the self-styled watchdogs. May or may not swing back by the next election.

    FG have an identity crisis though. Their core vote is still made up of people who might vote Labour if they were living in the big cities. Obviously some big farmers also vote for FG, but enough of them vote for FF that you can discount these voters.

    Part of me would see an advantage in just amalgamating with Labour (at least if they'd continued the moves begun by Dukes to being them toward the left) but they'd lose some of their core country vote (which as we can see from the result is now their total electorate after the Dublin losses since 1974).

    They need more than ever (and as much as the UK Conservative party) a leader who will ignite the electorate. Much of this vote has been a personal vote of confidence in the ex-Director of Lampost Posters. Bertie's travels around the country have acted to get people out voting for FF in all the key constituencies - all the appearances in the world by a leader of FG in VIP magazine couldn't counteract that.


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