Opinion poll today to show fall in support for Opposition

Xterminator

Well folks it should make interesting reading. Poll to be published in todays papers show a drop in supports for the opposition. (following the Eicom debacle?)

What are the opposition doing wrong?

Or are people genrally happy with the progress of the current administration?

I personally am generally happy at the moment.

X

Washout

It's all madness...I mean the internal spin really starts to begin now to form a new government... sinn Fein Support has increased dramatically...would FF form a government with them??

Sand

No:) SF are an unpopular party. The backlast FF would receive would break them, for years to come.

bonkey

Originally posted by Washout
sinn Fein Support has increased dramatically...would FF form a government with them??

Originally posted by Sand
SF are an unpopular party

I know this has been brought up before, but can we say that SF are an unpopular party if their support has increased dramatically?

I assume what you mean is that their idealogy/background makes them unpalatable to core FF supporters (and perhaps other parties), but at the end of the day, if they take a sizeable number of seats then they cannot be that unpopular with the public.

jc

Sand

From what Ive seen SF got 8% . That leaves 92% who wouldnt vote for them. And of that 92% it would be safe to assume that a good portion (two thirds?) would never vote for the representives of terror. I dont like the government being held to ransom by independants and small parties, but I would much prefer that than to have the likes of Gerry Adams and his ilk anywhere near the controls - can you imagine our foreign policy? It would return to the good ol 50s with speakers denouncing "the evils of partition" at every possible oppurtunity. Even Noonan would be more palatable (barely).

Meh

Originally posted by bonkey
I know this has been brought up before, but can we say that SF are an unpopular party if their support has increased dramatically?

I assume what you mean is that their idealogy/background makes them unpalatable to core FF supporters (and perhaps other parties), but at the end of the day, if they take a sizeable number of seats then they cannot be that unpopular with the public.

Even if they take 10% of the vote, there will still be 90% of people who didn't vote for them. There are a sizeable majority of people who would not vote for Sinn Fein no matter what. They seem to be a "love them or hate them" kind of party, with most of the electorate choosing to hate them.

shotamoose

I wonder could a similar argument be applied to labour, whose support seems to be dropping sharply? Their support is at 11 %- does that mean 89% don't want them anywhere near government? I don't think its quite as simple as that, but I'd guess its a factor - Labour have made it fairly clear that they're desperate to get into power without ever giving a good reason why they should be allowed in, IMHO.
Another interesting item in the poll is the support for the 'Others', equal to that for Labour at 11%. I'd like to see a breakdown of this group - is it mostly support for incumbent TDs like Mildred Fox, Jackie Healy-Rae, Joe Higgens etc., or are there pockets of support for others as yet outside the dail?

Anyway, in the absence of any translation of this poll into anticipated results in terms of seats, the next government at present looks like being more of the same. Wouldn't be surprised if that changed a lot though.

bonkey

Originally posted by Meh

Even if they take 10% of the vote, there will still be 90% of people who didn't vote for them. There are a sizeable majority of people who would not vote for Sinn Fein no matter what. They seem to be a "love them or hate them" kind of party, with most of the electorate choosing to hate them.

I accept that - Iwas just clarifying what Sand said slightly.

Put it like this. I can never see FF and FG getting in bed for a coalition, despite it guaranteeing a majority in pretty much any circumstances. Is this because FG are not popular? No - its because they are not an agreeable choice for FF supporters, and presumably for FF itself from an idealogical point of view.

I would ask one question though. If SF are (as Sand put it) "the representives of terror", what do they have to do to get rid of this image?

Our country was ruled by terrorists shortly after it gained its independance. Granted, they worked in somewhat more ethical means, but they were still terrorists through the actions they used up to our gaining of independance. So we should not argue that ex-terrorists are not acceptable as politicians (unless we want to say that times have changed, which I would accept). Are they unacceptable because they have not turned their backs on terror, and if this is the case, then why are they not prosecuted for it?

I am neither pro Sinn Fein, nor against them. I'm pretty ambivalent actually. I'm just curious as to why they are not acceptable today? Not why they werent acceptable 10 years ago.

jc

gandalf

When the IRA have decommissioned all their weapons and they have disbanded then Sinn Fein will be accepted by the majority. No political party can expect support from the majority of the citizens of Ireland when they have a army behind them that is not the legal armed forces of the Republic.

Regarding the poll, I'm not surprised at the outcome. Noonan has really made an ass of himself this week with the promises of handing out taxpayers money to gamblers (Eircon shareholders) and taxi-drivers (who ramped up illegally the values of their licenses themselves). If I had the intention of voting for FG before this week then it has now gone because I do not trust Noonan any more.

At this moment in time I can see the same political situation after the next election. Another weak government held to ransom by Parish Pump single issue Independants.

Gandalf.

daveirl

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pugwall

I can only see sinn fein gaining more support as time goes on. I see this as a bad thing. Those who go against 'Nice' only bolster sinn feins support. Further EU integration is the way forward. As a 20 year old I see it as the best way forward.
As far as I can see it is the middle to old age uneducated farmers & the far left socialists' who dissagree. (Not to mention the Greens who I would have previously considered a number 2 on the ballet sheet)
I dont think I would consider Ireland as my home if we weren't a member of the EU. We have come on so much as a nation in the last 15-20 years.
As a Fine Gael voter im disapointed with Noonen's leadership. Enda Kenny would have been my choice. It really annoyed me when he suggested dipping into the pension fund.(Probably Mcreveys only good move in government)
Unfortunately Noonans role in the hep C case while he was in health will affect FG in the forthcoming election. Im still of the opinion that a FG led gov is better for the country.
I thought thatthe greens would have performed better in the poll, but because of their stance on Nice their performance is fine with me!

Biffa Bacon

Originally posted by pugwall

As a Fine Gael voter im disapointed with Noonen's leadership. Enda Kenny would have been my choice.

As a Fianna Fáil voter Enda Kenny would have been my choice too.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

ConUladh

Originally posted by Sand
From what Ive seen SF got 8% . That leaves 92% who wouldnt vote for them. And of that 92% it would be safe to assume that a good portion (two thirds?) would never vote for the representives of terror.

So your estimate is that 61% would never vote for Sinn Fein

And yet 56% of the same poll are satisfied with Gerry Adam's leadership of SF with only 21% expressing dissatisfaction. I reckon a lot of that comes from charisma but is that's all it takes for people to overlook his past.......

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/ireland/2002/0125/1531349578HMLEAD.html

Maybe you're right but I think SF are considered a lot more acceptable now

Personally leaving aside the whole issue of Ulster I really don't reckon I'd want them involved in running the country

swiss

It's quite unsurprising that the latest polls have shown a drop in support for the opposition. The Eircom 'refund' debacle has led to the impression that FG are just 'buying' votes (not FF aren't doing the same BTW). Accusations of 'auction politics' abound and although I do think that the opposition are being unfairly castigated because of this, their decision to pursue this policy was, IMO ill advised.

It is not the function of government to pay investors whose investments have gone awry. The opposition's argument that such a reimbursement would be similar to a businessman claiming his loss against other investments sounds unconvincing to me - after all everybody must pay income tax, but a businessman can choose whether or not he is willing to risk getting burned once again.

That said, it was the government's own ineptitude and self congratulatory smugness that has led to the current situation of thousands of disgruntled ex-eircon shareholders. It would be nice and it would to many seem fair to allow ordinary citizens simply get back what is theirs. Unfortunately, reality does not require itself to be fair. The best, I fear, people can take with them from this circumstance is a greater wariness of the world of investment opportunity.

As for SF, well I don't wish to see them in government either. In a nutshell (cause I know I discussed this before ) political groups with armed 'vigilantes' (or terrorists, whatever you wish to call them) do not appeal to me.

Victor

IIRC FF lost 1% and PDs remained the same ... so how can the opposition have lost support (or are Sinn Fein part of the coalition?) OK, I recognise the main opposition parties lost support, but "The Opposition" hasn't.

Regarding the Eircom 'debacle', all the proposal does is bring Capital Gains Tax Allowance to everyone, not justy the "Fat Cats".

Xterminator

Originally posted by Victor
IIRC FF lost 1% and PDs remained the same ... so how can the opposition have lost support (or are Sinn Fein part of the coalition?) OK, I recognise the main opposition parties lost support, but "The Opposition" hasn't.

The opening statement was a drop in support for the opposition, not a strengthening of support for the government!

Leaving that aside , I am very interested in the anti sinn fein sentiments expressed here.
Also I am not pro SF, I just think i detect a hint of hiprocrasy.

May i ask if many of you would consider Nelson Mandela to have been a good leader, even a role model?
I do.
He was a terrorist too. The ANC never gave up all there guns before Apartheid was scrapped?
Micheal Collins, Eamonn deValera. Cant remember them disarming?

X

Victor

Originally posted by Xterminator
The opening statement was a drop in support for the opposition, not a strengthening of support for the government!

In age-old Counter-Stike terminology - WTF? Do you understand English? A fall in one implies a rise in the other! Am I missing something?

Originally posted by Xterminator
Leaving that aside , I am very interested in the anti sinn fein sentiments expressed here. Also I am not pro SF, I just think i detect a hint of hiprocrasy.

Sinn Fein will be treated as 'equals' when (a) they increase their electoral support (b) when they increase their commitment to exclusively democratic means. If FF is condemned for corruption and other shenanigans, then so can SF and its members be condemned for voter fraud and direct association with groups and individuals who engage in a wide variety of crime. If you want to accuse someone of hiprocracy, try swinging some in the direction of SF.

Originally posted by Xterminator
May i ask if many of you would consider Nelson Mandela to have been a good leader, even a role model? I do. He was a terrorist too. The ANC never gave up all there guns before Apartheid was scrapped? Micheal Collins, Eamonn deValera. Cant remember them disarming?

Yes, Mandela, brought the ANC to both the negotiating table and the cabinet table. However, it is a lot harder to accuse Mandela of double standards, as he brought his politicians and his army and didn't create an artificial distinction (even SF's Gerry Kelly has admitted there is little difference between SF & the IRA). Was Mandela a good leader, yes he was.

However, Mandela's leadership did not necessarily lead itself to good government, as they say good revolutionaries don't necessarily make good governors. While Mandela's changes were very important (human rights, government reform), to a degree they were symbolic (they didn't yet put food on enough peoples plates and roofs over their heads). It was deKlerk's government who initiated change and Mbeki's government who have to implement day-to-day practicalities (apparently the Education minister took it upon himself to tour schools to fire drunken on-duty teachers).

To get back to the point. Mandela convinced people that he wanted reform. People are taking SF with a grain of salt.

Originally posted by Xterminator
The ANC never gave up all there guns before Apartheid was scrapped?

Yes and SA now has more murders per year than the USA, with only a sixth of the population. There are many who unfortunately still stick to the 'liberation before education' ethos, only today the only things being liberated are expensive cars. "Shoot first, steal later, welcome to the New South Africa!" is an all to familiar refrain. In this way, Mandela failed the people at both ends of the guns.

Xterminator

So if Gerry Adams turns out to be a good as Nelson Mandela, you would condier him a failure!

No wonder theyve a lot to do.

Victor

Originally posted by Xterminator
So if Gerry Adams turns out to be a good as Nelson Mandela, you would condier him a failure! No wonder theyve a lot to do.

No, what I am saying is that in government Mandela failed on a number of issues. I don't think anyone would necessarily have done better at the time on those issues. However, it must also be said that others would have failed where Mandela succeeded. History often judges people harshly. It is SFs (or any other politicians) responsibility to make sure they vindicate themselves.