odds and stuff

DubTony

I've found myself in a position where I'm on a draw but get confused by pot odds and such, that I inevitably make the wrong call or fold what should have been called.

Here's an example.

From the BB I check 98o the flop is a K76 rainbow and one player bets 300 (half the pot.) Folds to me and I'm stumped. I know either 5s or 10s will give me the straight, so that's 8 cards. There were 6 players so thats 15 cards gone including the flop. So my odds on hitting the straight are about 4.5 to 1. There's 900 in the pot and it'll cost me 300 to call. so, 3 to 1.

The problem is that by the time I'm half way through calculations the timer starts beeping and my head turns to mush. (No, lads. I'm not thick - really ) How do you calculate quickly and which way should the odds work to be in your favour?
Even now I'm getting a headache. Any assistance appreciated. Thanks in advance.

Bozzer

Hey Tony,

When you are calculating odds in poker, you treat the cards your opponents folded as unseen. If you somehow knew exactly what your opponent holds then you can factor that in when your are working the odds out.

In your example there are 47 unseen cards, 8 of which will give you a straight. So the odds of making the straight on the turn are 39:8, or 4.875:1. As you said the pot odds being offered are 3:1, so by this reckoning you should fold.

But there is the possibility your opponent will put more money into the pot.
If you figure your opponent will put on average(at least) another 600 into the pot on the turn then you can call the flop bet, as your implied odds are(900+600):300 or 5:1, which are greater than your odds of hitting the straight on the turn.

If your opponent was all-in for his last 300 on the flop you can also call his flop bet as the odds of making the straight on the turn or river are 2.18:1 and your pot odds are still 3:1.
(The same applies if you knew your opponent would check the turn if you called his flop bet, but this is hard to predict.)

When figuring your implied odds you need to factor the likelihood of future bets, so ideally you want your opponent to have a strong hand(a pair of kings in your example). You should take into account how hidden your hand will be when you hit-ie; if you call on a flush draw and the third of the suitrolls off then your opponent might shut down, in fear of the flush.

In your example if a 10 comes on the turn, then you would need to have exactly 98 to have a straight and so your hand strength
is fairly well hidden.

Hope this helps

Ste05

Nive reply Bozzer - pretty much what I was going to say.

Here's a good link to give you the odds on most draws to help

http://www.planetstacked.com/holdem/odds/

In relation to working out the odds, after a while you'll just know, roughly, what odds it is that you'll make your hand and so all you need to really do is work out the odds the pot is giving you and then make your decision based on what hands you put your opponent might have and decide what you want to do, i.e. Call, Raise or Fold....

careca

Ste05 wrote:

Nive reply Bozzer - pretty much what I was going to say.

Here's a good link to give you the odds on most draws to help

http://www.planetstacked.com/holdem/odds/

In relation to working out the odds, after a while you'll just know, roughly, what odds it is that you'll make your hand and so all you need to really do is work out the odds the pot is giving you and then make your decision based on what hands you put your opponent might have and decide what you want to do, i.e. Call, Raise or Fold....

Thats quite good. Must print it off and learn it. Wonder could I pull it out of my pocket in the Fitz when facing a tough decision ?:)

Waylander

A quick way to work out your percentage chance of hitting is calculate the number of outs you feel you have, then pre turn multiply the no of outs by 4, and pre river by 2. This gives you the percentage chance of hitting the card you need. So if this is 32%, you need to be getting better then 2 to 1 to make the call, as there is a 66% chance that you will not hit. It is not the most scientific way of doing it, but will give you accurate enough information to make a decision.

The Troll

Take your number of outs and multiply by 4 before the turn or 2 before the river to get your rough % chance of hitting.

NickyOD

Waylander wrote:

A quick way to work out your percentage chance of hitting is calculate the number of outs you feel you have, then pre turn multiply the no of outs by 4, and pre river by 2. This gives you the percentage chance of hitting the card you need. So if this is 32%, you need to be getting better then 2 to 1 to make the call, as there is a 66% chance that you will not hit. It is not the most scientific way of doing it, but will give you accurate enough information to make a decision.

Yes that and take away 2% since there are 52 cards in the deck and not 50.

For example When chasing a flush draw on the flop you have 9 outs. That times 4 is 36 but as we all know you have about 34% chance of filling up.

Ste05

careca wrote:

Thats quite good. Must print it off and learn it. Wonder could I pull it out of my pocket in the Fitz when facing a tough decision ?:)

It is good, but I can't take credit for it, HectorJelly let me know about it a while back